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• “Moneyball” For Hollywood
Matthew MaroldaChief Analytics Officer
Legendary Entertainment@Legendary
#FUTUREM16
Disrupting Hollywood Paradigms with Analytics
September 2016
KONG:King of Skull Island
Hollywood Paradigm: Four Quadrants
Note: Using the US population as an illustrative example.
Traditional Hollywood Four Quadrant
Legendary Applied AnalyticsMicro Segment
Four Quadrant: 4 groups of 80 millionMicro Segment: 80 million groups of 4
Hollywood Paradigm: Spray and Pray General Population
Hard Core Fans
Market Top Dow
n
Audience
Box Office
Legendary Analytics: Invert Audience Building
Extended Reach
Efficiency Gain
Market Bottom
Up
Box Office
Audience
Hard Core Fans
General Population
Legendary Applied AnalyticsDriving All Strategic Decisions with
Data and Analytics
Inform Creative
Transform Marketing
Inform Creative
Concept and Cast Evaluations are most frequent
Transform Marketing
Identify, Understand, Reach, Persuade
Individuals
Goal:Reduce Media Spend by 15-20%
People and Locations
Based in Boston
Extension in LA
Diverse set of over 70 people and growing
People and Locations
Based in BostonExtension
in LAGrowing in Beijing
Diverse set of over 70 people and growing…and expanding
Virtuous Cycle
Virtuous Cycle
Conversation
SocialPeople
Content
• 1.5B email addresses• 200M households with PII• Hundreds of attributes per
person from many sources
• 500M Twitter profiles• 100M Facebook profiles• Hundreds of attributes per
person from many sources
• Billions of Tweets• All of Reddit• All of Wikipedia• Thousands of news sites
and blogs
• Box Office by theater for all movies since 2007
• All US ads run since 2007• Meta data by second for
thousands of movies
Substantial sets of data integrated in unique ways
Virtuous Cycle
Web Traffic
WarcraftDawn of the Planet of the Apes Hobbit 2 Hobbit 3
Hobbit 1
Godzilla
Jurassic World
Conversation Analysis
Social Interactions by Geography
Extensive analyses using traditional and innovative techniques
Virtuous CycleAnalysis DescriptionSurvey Analysis • Run specific surveys with the latest techniques
Digital Analytics • Analyze trends, conversation on social, search
Structured Topic Modeling
• Analyze Twitter and Reddit text to segment conversations into specific topics for analysis
Follower Network • Classify fans based on interpretable segments of a network (Basketball fans, Bollywood fans, etc.)
Entity DNA • Apply machine learning to a text and categorize language by specific topics
Emotion Classification
• Categorize commentary into groupings of emotions and then define topics in the emotions
Image-based Segmentation
• Segment based on types of images being shared on social media
Propagation Inference
• Target "influencers" based on empirical study of how frequently a person's posts are propagated
Propensity Models • Identify and reach high-likelihood individuals
Campaign Data • Learn from campaign to refine strategy/tactics
Virtuous Cycle• Build audience profiles• Create hundreds of microsegments• Identify key persuadable points• Produce detailed, actionable insights• Uncover persuadable audience
• Measure changes in intent• Test and develop creative
Actionable insights emerging from data and analytics –at a rate of over 50 per movie per week
Virtuous CyclePopulation
Aware
Interested
Converted
Individuals Interests DemosAudience
Manage a specific Audience based on Awareness and Interest to drive Conversion
Virtuous Cycle
Deep API integration allows for scale execution and sophisticated reporting
Virtuous Cycle
Campaign data allows for continual optimization
APPLIED ANALYTICSSOPHISTICATED TARGETED MARKETINGApply and adapt established models and tools in ChinaDrive marketing decision making Create closed loop to analyze, predict, and drive ticket sales
TARGETED MARKETING BASED ON STATISTICAL MODELING
1) Identify geographies most likely to have strong box office2) Utilize unique data relationships to analyze billions of data3) Train a model to predict likelihood of interest4) Focus on persuadable audience (not “givens” or “nevers”)5) Optimize creative by micro-segments6) Deliver large scale ads7) Use actual ticket pre-sales to calibrate models8) Drive ticket sales (including chase)
City level Box office analysis
Audience creative reception analysis Model coefficients affect analysis
• Investment• $160 million Production• $120 million Advertising
• Testing• 8 audience screenings (including extensive biometrics)• 3 different versions screened in the same night (a record!)
• Reception• 26% by critics on Rotten Tomatoes• 83% by fans on Rotten Tomatoes• 98th Percentile in ratio of Critics to Fans reception
WARCRAFT CHINA CASE STUDYTHE NEXT PARADIGM DISRUPTED
Extensive global release in June 2016for a unique property
LEGENDARY EASTMarketing and distribution local expertise
APPLIED ANALYTICSTactical and targeted digital campaign
MARKETINGCentrally managed campaign with extensive bespoke creative to support partners, exhibition, licensing and large scale eventing
STRATEGIC BUSINESS PARTNERSIntegrating the resources of strong influential partners into one of the widest reaching campaigns in China
LEGENDARY TEAM APPROACH
APPLIED ANALYTICS: WARCRAFT CHINA CASE STUDYTARGETED MARKETING AT SCALE TENCENT PLATFORMQQ tips window: 34.3M targeted ads.
BAIDU PLATFORMS
Nuomi: 29 million individuals targeted.Maps: 17 million individuals targeted.Music: 16 million individuals targeted.
Search ads: Thousands of keywords coveredDelivered 79 million impressions (high CTR at 3.5%)
150+ MILLIONTARGETED INDIVIDUALS:
6.5x Return on Media
3.0x More Likely to Buy a Ticket IMPACT:
APPLIED ANALYTICS: WARCRAFT CHINA CASE STUDYTARGETED MARKETING AT SCALE
0.00
0.40
0.80
1.20
1.60
2.00
2.40
2.80
Control Treatment AverageTreatment Top Segment
Tick
et P
urch
ase
Rate
(%)
+200%
0.44%
1.27%
2.30%
+400%
Exposed group converts at 200% higher rate, while the top segment at 400% higher
WARCRAFT CHINA CASE STUDYTHE NEXT PARADIGM DISRUPTED
$300M+ box office in its first week, $430M+ total, with a record setting $230M in China