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RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETBANGALORE
JULY - 2016(SNAPSHOT H1-2016)
Information sourced by the Research Department of LJ Hooker, Compiled and analysed by Research Department Head Mr. Idirees Chenakkal and Research Associate Mr. Aamir Khan.
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Ÿ The real estate residential market in Bengaluru witnessed a dip in its absorption trend and reached an all-time low Sales Velocity of 1.02%, i.e. a 7.7% decline in the rst half of 2016 in comparison to previous year-end.
Ÿ The average Capital Value remains unchanged to the limit of INR 5,334 per sq. ft. in the rst half of 2016.
Ÿ Apartment development witnessed 49.7% dip in the size of new launches in H1 2016 from the second half of 2015 (H2 2015).
Ÿ The total unsold residential stock in Bengaluru is valued at INR 88,258 crore.
Ÿ Months Inventory reached to 33.07 months, it is at its highest in the rst half of 2016 when compared to the periods following December 2012.
Ÿ The average price of the newly launched Apartment has decreased from INR 4,998 per sq. ft. in H2 2015 to INR 4,799 per sq. ft. in H1 2016.
PART – II STATISTICAL REPORT ON BENGALURU RESIDENTIAL MARKET
KEY FIGURES
0.1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Ÿ The residential development observed a net addition of 18,129 units in the rst half of 2016, which is more than half of the net addition in the second half of 2015 (29,920 units).
Ÿ The incremental sales amounts to 16% of the total inventory available for sale. Only 20,169 units were sold from the overall 125,738 units offered for sale. The closing stock of H1 2016 stands at 105,569 units.
Ÿ The Apartment development has witnessed a 3.8% decrease in its average ticket size;
Ÿ Villa development has decreased by 1.7%;
Ÿ Row House development has increased by 1.2% in the H1 2016.
Ÿ Prices of few residential developments have appreciated in the rst half of 2016 marginally, whereas others have depreciated in value. Apartment, Plot and Row House development are at the appreciating end at an increased level of 0.12%, 1.54% and 1.12% respectively, whereas Villa development has come down on its value to 0.1%.
Ÿ H1 2016 has witnessed the lowest Sales Velocity in years. Plotted development which had the highest Sales Velocity of 1.36% in the H2 2015 has come down to 1.27% in the H1 2016
Ÿ Apartment, Villa and Row House development have low Sales Velocity of 1.03%, 0.79% and 0.33% respectively, which is lower than the H2 2015.
Ÿ Apartment and Villa development has high Months Inventory of 32.5 and 42.2 months respectively.
Ÿ There has been a 39.4% decline in the new addition level in H1 2016, whereas the incremental sales and inventory levels have declined to the extent of 17% and 4.7% respectively from H2 2015.
SUPPLEMENTARY FACTS
Ÿ Valued at INR 31,917 crore, North-East region has the highest value of unsold inventory in town. South-East follows at a value of INR 28,893 crore of unsold inventory.
Ÿ North-East region had the largest net addition of 8,127 units in H1 2016. South-East region follows North-East region with a net addition of 7,631 units in H1 2016.
Ÿ With high level of net additions, North-East and South-East regions have higher incremental sales of 7,569 units and 7,164 units respectively.
Ÿ North-West has appreciated by 1.1% in its average Capital Value, whereas North-East has appreciated by mere 0.1%.
Ÿ There has been a drastic drop in the Sales Velocity of the North-West region. It has come down to 0.88% in H1 2016 from 1.42% in H2 2015.
Ÿ North-East, South-West, South-East and Central Bengaluru regions have low Sales Velocity of 1.06%, 1.05%, 1.01% and 0.96% respectively. On an average, the overall Sales Velocity has come down to 1.02% in H1 2016 from 1.12% in H2 2015.
Ÿ The Months Inventory level has been on the highest side at 33.07 months, which is a 6.3% increase from H2 2015. Except for the South-West region, the Months Inventory level of all other regions have increased.
Ÿ There has been a minimalistic change in the price across the residential spread in H1 2016. The price of residential development in the South-West has increased the most to 1.3% from the H2 2015 whereas the Central region price has decreased by 1.9%.
REGIONAL NUMBERS
Ÿ More than 71% people prefer to buy their home for self-occupation. Around 29% people prefer to buy Real Estate for an investment purpose.
Ÿ 2 BHK and 3 BHK homes are most preferred by home buyers to the extent of 65% and 31% respectively.
Ÿ With 35% of preference expressed, prospective buyers in Bengaluru are more inclined towards the South region.
Ÿ Around 25% chose a budget between INR 30-50 lakhs. Next on chart is budget between INR 50-70 lakhs with 18% of preference. For 9%, budget was INR 70-90 lakhs, whereas a budget of over INR 150 lakhs was preferred by 28% home buyers.
Ÿ Whiteeld ranked the most preferred location in the home buyers' preference study. Electronics City and Sarjapur road stands at 2nd and 3rd place.
SUPPLEMENTARY FACTS
AFFORDABILITY PATTERN
Ÿ Budget homes holding the largest opening stock of 37,834 units has a large net addition of 14,681 units. The incremental sales in this category stand at 16% of its total inventory.
Ÿ The net addition in the Mid-Range Homes category has come down to 5,911 units in the H1 2016 from 7,966 units in H2 2015.
Ÿ Maximum supply of units have been mapped in Budget homes category. A total of 137,825 units have been tabulated in this segment measuring about 181.9 Mn sq. ft. The total supply has however increased from 125,999 units in the H2 2015.
Ÿ The unsold inventory of the premium homes category is valued at INR 31,732 crore for 20,223 units of unsold stock.
BENGALURU PRIMARY RESIDENTIAL MARKET – MACRO ANALYSIS
The real estate residential market in Bengaluru witnessed a dip in its absorption trend and reached an all-time low Sales Velocity of 1.02%, i.e. a 7.7% d e c l i n e i n H 1 2 0 1 6 i n comparison to previous year end.
The average Capital Value remains unchanged to the limit of INR 5,334 per sq. ft. in H1 2016.
Year Sales Velocity Months Inventory Average Price Per sq. ft.
Dec-12 3% 12 4,702
Jul-13 4.2% (45.9%) 9(-26%) 4,753(1%)
Jan-14 2.2% (-49.1%) 16(85%) 4,936(4%)
Jul-14 2.3% (5.2%) 15(-6%) 5,030(2%)
Jan-15 2.2% (-3%) 16(9%) 4,866(-3%)
Jul-15 1.6% (-27.3%) 22(33%) 5,261(8%)
Jan-16 1.12% (-30 %) 31 (40.9%) 5,333 (1.4%)
Jul-16 1.02% (-7.7%) 33.07 (6.3%) 5,334 (0.02%)
Months Inventory is at its highest in the rst half of 2016 when compared to the periods following December 2012. An increase of 6.3% is noticed in H1 2016 of the Months Inventory when compared to the H2 2015.
The increased level of Months Inventory is attributed to the low Sales Velocity of 1.02%, which is an all-time low since December 2012.
KEY INDICATORS
Apartment development having the largest share of residential real estate of 268,956 units measures 399.1 Mn sq. ft. in size. From the total measure, 133.1 Mn sq. ft. remains unsold at a value of INR 72,250 crore. The total unsold residential stock in Bengaluru is valued at INR 88,258 crore.
Considering the total supply in the market, South-East region has the largest stock of 136,346 units at a size of 224.9 Mn sq. ft.
Valued at INR 31,917 crore, North-East region has the highest value of unsold inventory in town. South-East follows North-East at a value of INR 28,893 crore of unsold inventory.
Maximum supply of units has been mapped in Budget homes category. A total of 137,825 units have been tabulated in this segment measuring about 181.9 Mn sq. ft. The total supply has however increased from 125,999 units in H2 2015.
The unsold inventory of the premium homes category is valued at INR 31,732 crore for 20,223 units of unsold stock.
DEVELOPMENT TYPE WISE MARKET DYNAMICS
REGION WISE MARKET DYNAMICS
Apartment Plot Row House Villa Grand Total
Total Supply in units 268,956 41,965 1,714 16,510 329,145
Unsold Units 90,417 9,152 488 5,512 105,569
Total Size in Mn sq. ft. 399.1 100.9 5.2 50.7 556.0
Unsold Size in Mn sq. ft. 133.1 21.8 1.5 17.0 173.4
Value of Unsold Inventory In Crores 72,250 4214 1,154 10,640 88,258
Central North East
North West
South East
South West
Grand Total
Total Supply in units 7,950 111,617 34,967 136,346 38,265 329,145
Unsold Units 3,863 38,382 9,687 41,317 12,320 105,569
Total Size in Mn sq. ft. 18.3 192.4 55.7 224.9 64.8 556.0
Unsold Size in Mn sq. ft. 8.0 63.5 16.8 66.0 19.1 173.4
Value of Unsold Inventory In Crores
9,236 31,917 8,703 28,893 9,510 88,258
Value
Homes Budget Homes
Mid- Range
Premium Homes
Luxury Homes
Ultra-luxury
Total Supply in units 30,704 137,825 95,000 58,745 6,313 558
Unsold Units 7,976 44,024 31,335 20,223 1,759 252
Total Size in Mn sq. ft. 43.1 181.9 151.2 150.9 25.9 3.1
Unsold Size in Mn sq. ft. 10.1 54.9 50.1 49.8 7.1 1.4
Value of Unsold Inventory In Crores
1,611 20,317 24,066 31,732 7,462 3,071
RESIDENTIAL MARKET DYNAMICS
PRICE CATEGORY WISE MARKET DYNAMICS
PART- IV PRIMARY PROJECT SOURCE DATA
