LEARNING FROM GLOBAL DISASTER LABORATORIES

A THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

A FRAMEWORK FOR A COMPREHENSIVE, INTER-DISCIPLINARY DIALOGUE

ON 21ST CENTURY DISASTERS

AND DISASTER RESILIENCE

1. SCOPEFROM VULNERABLE CONTINUUMS

TO A DISASTER

TODISASTER RESILIENT COMMUNITIES

THROUGH IMPLEMENTATION OF“THE BEST POLICIES AND BEST

PRACTICES” OF DISASTER RESILIENCE

A DISASTER is --- --- the set of failures that occur when the continuums of: 1)  people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) recurring events (e.g., floods, earthquakes, ...,) intersect at a point in space and time, when and where the people and community are not ready.   

THE DYNAMIC CONTINUUMS

• PEOPLE ( 7 Billion and counting)

• COMMUNITIES• RECURRING EVENTS

(AKA Natural Hazards), which are proof of a DYNAMIC EARTH)

INTERSECTION OF THESE CONTINUUMS IS INEVITABLE

SOME INTERSECTIONS WILL CAUSE A DISASTER, AND SOME WON’T

EACH COMMUNITY MUST BE READY FOR THE INEVITABLE

INTERSECTION THAT WILL CHALLENGE ITS STATE OF

READINESS

YOUR COMMUNITYDATA BASES

AND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

• FLOODS • SEVERE WIND

STORMS• EARTHQUAKES …

ETC

A DISASTER

CAUSESFAILURES IN POLICIES

FAILURES IN PRACTICES

COUNTER MEASURES

• BEST POLICIES• BEST PRACTICES

DISASTER RESILIENCE

PEOPLE = INNOVATION

200 NATIONS AND 7+

BILLION PEOPLE

NORTH AMERICA

CARIBBEAN BASIN

SUB-SAHARAAFRICA

MEDITER-RANEAN

ISLAND NATIONS

ASIA

SOUTHAMERICA

EUROPE

LIKE AN INFINITE SERIES: A CONTINUUM OF INNOVATION NEVER ENDS

LIKE A CHAIN: A CONTINUUM HAS WEAK LINKS TO IMPROVE

FOUR UNIVERSAL WEAK-LINKS

• IGNORANCE• APATHY• DISCIPLINARY

BOUNDARIES• LACK OF POLITICAL WILL

THE PEOPLE CONTINUUM

• 7 + BILLION (DISTRIBUTED THROUGHOUT THE WORLD)

THE COMMUNITY CONTINUUM: (SOCIAL CONSTRUCTS TO BENEFIT THE PEOPLE)

• GOVERNMENT• DWELLINGS• SCHOOLS• HEALTH CARE

FACILITIES• BUSINESSES• INFRA-

STRUCTURE• ETC

THE RECURRING - EVENTS CONTINUUM

• FLOODS• SEVERE

WINDSTORMS• EARTHQUAKES• DROUGHTS• VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONS• ETC.

EXAMPLE OF A DISASTER

RECURRING FLOODING

Interactions of Planet Earth’s sun, atmosphere, litho-sphere, hydro-sphere, and biosphere cause:

Floods.

INTERACTIONS OF EARTH’S CORE, MANTLE,

ASTHENOSPHERE, AND LITHOSPHERE, CAUSE

RECURRING EARTHQUAKES

HAITI EARTHQUAKE JANUARY 12, 2010

INTERACTIONS OF THE CONTINENTAL

LITHOSPHERE WITH THE OCEANIC LITHOSPHERE AND THE HYDROSPHERE

CAUSE RECURRING TSUNAMIS

TSUNAMI: JAPANMARCH 12, 2011

TSUNAMI: OFFSHORE INDONESIA DEC. 26, 2004

RECURRING SEVERE WINDSTORMS:

HURRICANES, TYPHOONS, CYCLONES

INTERACTIONS OF THE SUN, ATMOSPHERE, HYDROSPHERE,

TROPOSPHERE, AND LITHOSPHERE

ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES: 2010

• Alex (H) June 21• Bonnie July 27• Colin Aug 3• Danielle (H)

Aug 21• Earl (H) Aug.29• Fiona Aug 30

RECURRING VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS:

INTERACTIONS OF THE CORE, MANTLE,

LITHOSPHERE, AND ATMOSPHERE

VOLCANIC ERUPTION: ICELANDAPRIL 14, 2010

RECURRING DROUGHT EPISODES

Planet Earth’s

atmospheric-oceanic-lithospheric interactions cause:

Droughts

WHEN AN INTERSECTION OCCURS, WILL A DISASTER OCCUR?

THE CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY IS “YES” IF THE PEOPLE AND THE COMMUNITY

ARE NOT READY

PEOPLE COMMUNITY

EVENTS

PT

SO

CP

INCREASED DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY

LIVING WITH DISASTER RISK

DECREASED CAPABILITIES OF

COMMUNITY

LIVING WITH DISASTER RESILIENCE

DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY

NO DISASTER THIS TIME

CAPABILITIES OF COMMUNITY

TURNING POINTS FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

EDUCATION: PENETRATE SOCIETY

IGNORANCE TO ENLIGHTENMENT

APATHY TO EMPOWERMENT

BOUNDARIES TO NETWORKS

ENABLEMENT OF POLITICAL WILL

BUILDING EQUITY AND PENETRATING SOCIETY

1. DISASTER RESILIENCE POLICIES ---

---ARE LIKE THE SYSTEM - ANALYSIS PROCEDURES THAT FOUR BLIND PEOPLE WOULD USE TO DESCRIBE AN ELEPHANT

2. DISASTER RESILIENCE POLICIES

MUST CLOSE PRIOR KNOWLEDGE DIVIDES AND GAPS, AND

IDENTIFY WEAK LINKS IN THE PEOPLE/COMMUNITY

CONTINUUMS

CURRENT KNOWLEDGE

IS DEFINED BY ANECTDOTAL, EMPIRICAL, LINEAR, NON-LINEAR,

STATISTICAL, FUZZY, PROBABILISTIC, . . . AND THEORETICAL MODELS

HAVING DIVIDES, GAPS, AND UNCERTAINTIES

KNOWLEDGE DIVIDES

DISCONTINUITIES in space, and time of the available knowledge BETWEEN organizations, disciplines, and people will always create uncertainties in choices and differences in capability to achieve disaster resilience.   

KNOWLEDGE GAPS

DISCONTINUITIES in space, and time WITHIN organizations, disciplines, or individuals that create uncertainties and slow progress towards disaster resilience.

STRENGTHENING WEAK LINKS

BENEFITS EVERYONE

IMPROVES PREPAREDNESS

IMPROVES PROTECTION

IMPROVES EM RESPONSEE

IMPROVES RECOVERY

DISASTER RESILIENCE

3. FROM A DISASTER TO DISASTER RESILIENCE

A DEEPER UNDERSTANDING OF PAST DISASTERS LEADS TO “COUNTER

MEASURES” THAT PREVENT RECURRENCES

DISASTER RESILIENCE POLICIES

Design and Implementation of policies and practices: a) to INCREASE CAPACITY of the PEOPLE, andb) to ELIMINATE VULNERABILITIES in the COMMUNITY. 

STOP INCREASING COMMUNITY VULNERABILITY

WHEN THE DIALOGUE IS ON THE CONTINUUMS WE CARE ABOUT, WE ALMOST NEVER LEAVE AYTHING TO CHANCE

“BEST POLICIES AND PRACTICES”

• PROTECTION (BUILD TO WITHSTAND)

• PREPAREDNESS (BE READY FOR ALL POSSIBILITIES)

“BEST POLICIES AND PRACTICES”

• EMERGENCY RESPONSE

• (ACTIONS TO [PROTECT PEOPLE AND PROPERTY)

• DISASTER RECOVERY (RESTORING COMMUNITY SYSTEMS TO NORMAL AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE)

READINESS FOR A POSSIBLE DISASTER

“BEST POLICIES AND

PRACTICES”

PRIVATE SECTOR PUBLIC SECTOR

ACADEMIA

FUNCTIONAL NETWORKING

CHANNELS

INFORMATION NETWORKING

CHANNELS

ORGANIZATION NETWORKING

CHANNELS

NO DISASTERS

COMMUNITY STAKEHOLDERS

Stratec Consulting

PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE

Anticipatory PreparednessAdoption and Implementation of a Modern Engineering Building Codes & Standards

Timely Early Warning and EvacuationTimely Emergency Response (including

Emergency Medical Services)Cost-Effective Recovery/Reconstruction

COMMUNITIES

DATA BASES AND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

• TYPHOON HAZARDS

• INVENTORY• VULNERABILITY• LOCATION

TYPHOON RISK

RISKACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

TYPHOON DISASTER RESILIENCE

• PREPAREDNESS• PROTECTION• FORECASTS/SCENARIOS• EMERGENCY RESPONSE• RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION

POLICY OPTIONS

THE CHALLENGE:

BEST POLICIES AND PRACTICES: CREATE, ADJUST, AND REALIGN PROGRAMS, PARTNERS AND PEOPLE UNTIL YOU HAVE CREATED THE KINDS OF TURNING POINTS NEEDED FOR MOVING TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE