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Innovation and Futures Thinking: Are You Leading or Following?@futurice @toastedric @mobile_rat @janevita
Who are we?
We create digital services for people to love.
• Founded in 2000 • 200+ employees from 18 countries • 8th year in a row profitable growth • YOY growth 30%
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We build delightful digital services.
And help our customers to succeed in digital business.
• Analyzing business• Feeling people
• Mastering technology
Using Future Thinking in Concept Design
Foresight1.
FORESIGHTForeseeing the Future is the ability to forecast what will be needed or is going to happen in the future.
Source: Raymond, 2010, Finpro
FORESIGHT IS NOT
- Predict the future- Direct answers - Market Research or Business Intelligence
Source: Raymond, 2010, Finpro
FORESIGHT IS- Combine familiar things in new ways - Makes you question your own “truths” - Inspire you to look from other angles - Helps to understand broader concepts- Helps the development of sustainable business - Helps find new business opportunities
Source: Raymond, 2010, Finpro
FORESIGHT IS- Analyse the same date differently- Identify patterns, similarities - Professional intuition based on experience- Process today’s world to find tomorrow’s opportunities
Source: Raymond, 2010, Finpro
Martin Raymond, The Future Laboratory
“Working with Futures Thinking is not trying to predict the future, or having
futuristic ideas. Futures Thinking is applying new and emergent cultural
changes, after mapping and projecting these changes in a way that other
people can understand and visualise them.”
WHERE ARE THEY?- Internal Consultants- Consultants and companies who offer
Future Research, Foresight Services and Trend Analysis
About Future Thinking2.
Garlain, 2011
“There’s not a single future, but a whole spectrum of likely futures that
depend on numerous possibilities, depending on decisions… …The aim is to shape our brains and strategic plans to be more flexible
when facing the inevitability of the future.”
Mannermaa, 2004
“The most important thing for Futurologists is presenting as many
alternatives and views as possible, they are the ones who will support the
decisions to be made. ”
Holistic & Multidisciplinary
StatisticsEconomics
Politics
Social Psychology
Philosophy
Culture
History
Antropology
Sociology
FUTURESRESEARCH
Technology
Referência: Aleksi Neuvonen, Demos Helsinki. Slideshare.
DATA TREND ANALYSIS
PATTERN RECOGNITION
INTUITION IMAGINATION
A set of principles and practices that can be applied to solve complex problems and to envision desirable and sustainable ways of action
+
Source: Futures thinking process by Vanessa Miemis
BIG DATA
TREND ANALYSIS
PATTERN RECOGNITION
INTUITION AND IMAGINATION
An iterative process which helps you consider a range of possibilities, probably and preferable outcomes
ASKING THE QUESTION
SCANNINGTHE WORLD
MAPPING POSSIBILITIES
ASKING THE NEXT QUESTION
Source: Futures thinking process by Jamais Cascio
Futurologists create expectations about the people’s and world’s future. Their goal is to support
your efforts on shaping the future.
We can make more informed Business and Design decisions by foreseeing the future
ADAPTIVE ROBUST TRANSFORMATIONAL
Futures Thinking develops the long-range outlook
DESIGN
FUTURETHINKING
21st CENTURY DESIGN NEEDS TO BE
Future Thinking Benefits3.
Source: Sad Topographies
Helps visualizing where we could be in the future
Source: Meristö, Laitinen, 2009
Source: Sad Topographies
Supports business choosing which risks to take
Source: Meristö, Laitinen, 2009
Source: Sad Topographies
Simplifies the complex is an easy and digestable way
WORLD’S INFORMATION INSIGHTS AND PLANS
Source: Meristö, Laitinen, 2009
Source: Sad Topographies
Business flexibility & new business oportunities
Source: Meristö, Laitinen, 2009
Future Thinking & Service Design7.
(Service) Design
Thinking
Futures Research
Inovation
BUSINESSOPPORTUNITY
In 2012, Koskelo & Nousiainen studied the relationship between Service Design and Futures Research.
Innovation was the result
INFORMATION COLLECTION
PESTEAnalysis
INFORMATION PROCESSING
STRUCTURING ALTERNATIVES
FUTURES
SELECTING / EVALUATING ALTERNATIVE
FUTURES
IDENTIFICATIONOF MARKET
NEEDS
CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT,
TESTINGAND REFINEMENT
REALIZATION
Technology Roadmap
Delphi - Analysis
Future table
Cross-Impact Analysis
Time-Series Analysis
Trend Analysis
Scenario working
Futures table
Strategy Working
Alternative courses of actions
Business Potential estimation of scenarios
Competition Analysis
Market orientated futures table
Scenario storylines
SWOT
Market Potential
Scenario based theme specific identification
Concept Drafts
Visualization
Visionary Concepts
Commerciali-zation
Piloting
Timing of market operations and R&D
Cooperation & Networks
FORESIGHT CONCEPTS
FUTURES THINKINGForesight acIvity in the context of innovaIon process (Meristö 2009, as cited in Meristö and LaiInen 2009, 16).
UNDERSTANDING
Empathic Conversations
THINKING GENERATING EXPLAINING FILTERING REALISING OPERATION
Observation Ethnography Probes
Future Scenarios Trend Analysis
Affinity wall Personas Mental Models
Stage Play Storyboard Journey Map
Scenarios
Concepts Prototypes Use Cases
Scenario What If
Service Blueprint Requirements
Roadmapping
Commerciali-zation
Piloting
Timing of market operations and R&D
Cooperation & Networks
RESEARCH CONCEPTS DESIGN OPERATION
Multidisciplinary Processing
Weak Signal exploration Non-Experts
Co-Design Games Drama
Co-Creative Tools
Trend Cards What If
Experience Priorities
Deciding Priorities
Agile Development
Systematic Implementation
SD PROCESS SUPPORTED BY FUTURES RESEARCHSOURCE: MORITZ 2005, 123; EDITED BY KOSKELO AND NOUSIAINEN BASED ON THEIR RESEARCH, 2012
FUTURES THINKING Scenarios PESTE
Context Value Map Personas
Trends Weak Signals
Context Value Map Personas
What if Roadmap
Storytelling Play
Prototype
No constrains: Look far and beyond for alternative and desired contexts
DEFINE & SCOPE
PROCESS & IDEATE
DELIVER & UTILIZE
DESIGN THINKINGEmpathy and concreteness: People driven systems and solutions
Source: La Futura
UNDERSTANDING THINKING GENERATING EXPLAINING FILTERING REALISING OPERATION
INFORMATION COLLECTION
INFORMATION PROCESSING
STRUCTURING ALTERNATIVES
FUTURES
SELECTING / EVALUATING ALTERNATIVE
FUTURES
IDENTIFICATIONOF MARKET
NEEDS
CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT,
TESTINGAND REFINEMENT
REALIZATION
RESEARCH & KNOWLEDGE CREATION INTERPRET & DEVELOP CREATE &
TEST
FUTURES THINKING
SERVICE DESIGN
RESEARCH & FIND ANALYSE & DIGEST CREATE DEFINE
FUTURE THINKINGSERVICE DESIGN
CONTEXT: Scenarios & Possibilities that influence Design choices
Applying Future Thinking in Design4.
RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS
raw data, information……
Understanding the context of the problem and foresee opportunities
CONCEPT DEVELOPMENTBrings a bigger and wider prespective
Exploring Scenario and Possibilities
Short term plan & Big Vision
Development of a road map for the future
CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT
Weak Signals, Black Swans & Trends5.
Examples:Tinder, Facebook, Bimbi, Wearables….
- Your peers laugh at what you told
- “Never going to happen” - People never heard about it,
- As more people speak more about it
more people get engaged
Weak Signals
Source: Hiltunen, 2010
- A rare and unexpected event with huge
social implications
- Can be made by Nature (tsunamis)
- Can be made by Humans (scientific
discoveries)
Black Swans
Source: Xtreme events, 2011
Can be the possible destiny of something new or different that might have a big impact over culture,
society or a specific market.
Raymond, 2009
Trend
A weak signal, behaviour change that becomes more regular, and changes people, products and
ideas overtime.
Trend
Trends can be compulsive, addictive and sometimes surprisingly viral when you least expected.
Trend
Trends Classification
MEGA TRENDSWhere the world is heading
MACRO TRENDSWhat people want
MICRO TRENDSWhat does it means to my business
MICRO TREND
Mass Market Ready
New
Intelligent
Can be structure changing
MACRO TREND
Economies
People
Environment
Society
Several Micro Trends
MEGA TREND
Broad and Profound
Comprehensive and extend to all regions of the world
Affects all actors: - Companies- Individuals- Governments
Takes many years to become perceived
CONNECTED WORLD
DIY ELECTRONICS
ARDUINO; 3D PRINTING
Example
MICRO
CULTURAL CHANGE
Changes in values and attitudes of people
BEHAVIORAL CHANGE
Changes in practices, patterns and models
SIGNALS
First Manifestations
GLOBAL CHANGE
Changes across the globe
MACRO MEGA
OVER TIME
Source: Based on Anu K. Nousiainen research
Trend cards help you to visualise trends. There is a big variety of models and canvases. The best one is the one you and your stakeholders feel comfortable with. They are a great summary for the subjects in a
trend report.
Trend cards
Examples
TREND6
Consumers become Creators
Futurice Oy, 2015
TREND6
Consumers become Creators Customers are becoming the designers. � They will sell customized products to their friends and community. Consumers will care more about what they can do or create.
Futurice Oy, 2015
Customers are becoming the designers and the best design will be perceived as the one which will give the customer the power of creation. � Consumers will not only buy from you but also sell the customized products to their friends and community. Consumers will care less about what they have or buy and more about what they can do or create..
• 85% of the 2014 Best Global Brands have used crowdsourcing in the last 10 years. (eYeka)
• The Best Global Brands are three times more likely to use crowdsourcing platforms than websites and social media for their crowdsourcing efforts. (eYeka)
• There is a strong commercial case for personalization - those who are doing it report 14% uplift in sales. (e-consultancy)
!!
Privacy is a big thing when you create customers profile. Retailers need to treat it very seriously. Creepiness – avoid services that jus add extra work to customer, but rather gives an amazing and seamless experience. Find the right blend between customer creation and professional expertise. Always needs to be part of the brand strategy.
New ways and channels to communicate with customers. Know from customers what they want and how much they are involved with your brand. Ideas about new services and also how to get the old ones improved. Create a controlled environment in which creation happens (ikeahackers, Bugatti, etc.)
Trend intro Facts about the trend Challenges Opportunities
Consumers become Creators Trend 6
Futurice Oy, 2015
Living&and&Crea,ng&Virtual&Reali,es&With%the%development%of%superhuman%intelligence,%people%will%begin%crea8ng%virtual%reali8es,%which%will%change%the%way%entertainment%is%experienced%;%There%reali8es%will%be%very%close%to%real%life%experience,%because%of%the%advanced%IT%technology,%and%therefore%very%realis8c%;%People%will%be%part%of%informa8on%networks%that%are%connected%everywhere%and%with%everything%;%By%crea8ng%and%living%virtual%reali8es,%people%can%expand%their%experience%of%life,%and%also%share%their%virtual%reali8es%with%others.%%
Driving&Forces&&&Counter&trends&Technological%development:%born%of%superhuman%intelligence%;%Environmental:%people%s8ll%want%to%experience%things,%but%travelling%will%be%more%dangerous%and%expensive%;%Similar%experiences%can%be%experienced%virtually%;%Entertainment:%Movie%industry%is%already%including%this%subject%to%movies%;%%Poli8cal:%War%;%Health:%Virtual%reali8es%are%found%to%be%harmful?%
People&&&Consump,on&Birth%of%social%media%and%real%life%role%play%games%are%a%beginning%of%this%trend%;%Also%the%accelera8ng%speed%of%technological%development%;%Everyone%will%be%affected%by%the%trend%;%People%will%find%ways%to%deepen%their%lives%through%virtual%reali8es.%It%could%also%become%some%people's%profession%to%create%services%for%virtual%reali8es%or%to%provide%help%to%create%new%virtual%reali8es%;%People%will%share%the%virtual%reali8es%they%created%with%their%friends%and%this%will%become%one%form%of%social%network%of%being%a%human%;%This%trend%will%reduce%the%amount%of%services%used%outside%the%virtual%reali8es%and%therefore%alter%the%targets%of%consump8on%;%People%will%buy%services%to%enhance%their%experiences%in%the%virtual%reali8es.%%
HIGH&speed&of&change&&&
Global&
Living&and&Crea,ng&Virtual&Reali,es%
Google%Glass%
Samsung%%paper%screen%%%
Maturity%&%Speed%%%%&I&&&&&Coverage%&%Context&
hQp://koota8on.com/virtual;reality.html%
Matrix%Movie%
Minority%Report%movie%
Source: SID group content using Trend Tool from 2012, ©Koskelo & Nousiainen
©2015 PSFK Labs
Source: Ixonos Plc
Source: Ixonos Plc
Scenarios6.
Source: Sad Topographies
Scenarios are a good source of information to support Business and Design decisions for regarding the Future
IDEA
1
Possible Future Scenario
2
Possible Future Scenario
3
Possible Future Scenario
Today
Inspired by Alstyne, 2010, Hiltunen 2010, Meristö & LaiInen 2009
Source: Sad Topographies
Scenarios are guesses about the future, some more likely to happen than others
Inspired by Alstyne, 2010, Hiltunen 2010, Meristö & LaiInen 2009
Scenarios are not predictionsScenarios can just be compared and not judged. There’s no better
or worst, but more or less probable.
Inspired by Alstyne, 2010, Hiltunen 2010, Meristö & LaiInen 2009
Scenarios
Stories that can be analysed and
synthesised, built in a sequential order
based on possible futures.
PROBABLE . POSSIBLE . PLAUSIBLE . DESIRED . REALISTIC . INSPIRING
Source: Sad Topographies
To apply a scenario to your case, you need to contextualise it and analyse it from different prespectives
BUSINESS
DESIGN TECH
7. WORKSHOPYeaah! Finally some action!
Instructions
1. Form groups2. Choose 1 or more trend Cards3. Identify 3 Consumer Needs 4. Ideate 5. Create a poster 6. Create a Customer Journey 7. Write your elevator pitch
8. Present Ideas
SEGMENTS
Private Companies & Businesses
Government & Politics
Economy & Monetization
Media & Entertainment
Science & Technology
Arts & Culture Commerce Health & Well-Being
Travel & Transports
Education
Timeline
Choose Segment
Choose Trend Cards
Identify 3 Consumer Needs
Ideate
Create poster
Create a Customer Journey
Write Elevator Pitch
Present Ideas
10 min
10 min
10 min
30 min
15 min
15 min
15 min
5 min
Choose your trends
BUSINESS
TECH
MARKETING
SOCIAL
FOOD
CIVIC TECH
RETAIL
SOCIETY
MY & MYSELF
Define your consumer needs
Identify at least 3 consumer needs that relate to your area.
This needs should to be addressed by your concept.
BASIC NEEDSWhich deep consumer needs & desires does this trend address?
What new consumer needs, wants and expectations are created bythe changes identified above? Where and how does this trend satisfythem?
Who are other businesses applying this trend? Which (new) customergroups could you applythis trend to?What would you have tochange?
Why is this trend emerging now? What’s changing? How and where could you apply this trend to your business?
Long-Term, Widespread, Macro SHIFTS
Recent, Short-Term, TechnologiesTRIGGERS
CONSUMER TREND CANVASDRIVERS OF CHANGE
TREND :
INNOVATION POTENTIAL
EMERGING COMSUMER EXPECTATIONS INSPIRATION WHO?
BUSINESSIDEA
Source: trendwatching.com | CONSUMER TREND CANVAS
Brainstorming Rules
Defer Judgement Go for Quantity
Encourage Wild Ideas Build on the Ideas of Others
Stay Focused Be Visual