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ACri&calAssessmentoftheEuropeanCulturalApproachtoCounterTerrorism

Marco Marsili

Lisbon, 24 May 2016

EuropeasaGlobalActor-Terrorism&Security

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AsecureEuropeinabe<erworld:2003EuropeanSecurityStrategy

“Europehasneverbeensoprosperous,sosecurenorsofree.Theviolenceofthefirsthalfofthe20thCenturyhasgivenwaytoaperiodofpeaceandstabilityunprecedentedinEuropeanhistory”.

AsecureEuropeinabe/erworld.EuropeanSecurityStrategyproposedbyEUHighRepresentaDveJavierSolanaandadoptedbytheHeadsofStateandGovernmentattheEuropeanCouncilof12December2003. 3

ResultsofSecurityandDefencePolicyatthe&meofal-Qaeda

Madridtrainbombings,11March2004:191deaths LondonaPacks,7July2005:56deathsincludingthefourperpetrators 4

EUCounter-TerrorismStrategy2005

Source:CounciloftheEuropeanUnion,2005 5

ResultsoftheEUCounter-TerrorismStrategyatthe&meoftheIslamicState

Île-de-France,aPacks(CharlieHebdoshooDng),7-9January2015:17vicDmsand3perpetrators,ParisaPacks,13-14November2015:130vicDmsand7perpetrators.

ZaventemAirport,22March2016:32vicDmsand3perpetrators 6

Thelonewolf&theforeignfighters7

Thelonewolf

Defini&ons•  Individualsorasmallnumberof

individualswhocommitanaPackinsupportofagroup,movement,orideologywithoutmaterialassistanceorordersfromsuchgroup(Simon,2013)

•  Individualswho,followingradicalisaDon,decidetocommitaterroristaPackontheirown(Jordan,2014)

•  Individualspreviouslyunknowntosecurityandintelligenceservices(Europol,2015)

•  TerroristsacDngalone(EU,2015)

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LostsonsofEurope:born,raisedandradicalisedinEuropeMadridbombings1985&2004:MustafabinAbdal-QadirSetmariamNasar(AbuMusabal-Suri),SpanishciDzen

LondonaPacks2005:4UKciDzens

Paris2015&Brussels2016:10French,6Belgian,1Swedish

Norway2011:AndersBehringBreivikNonreligiouslyinspiredterrorist

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TerrorismintheEUisnotonlyaphenomenonlinkedtoreligion

Numberofsuspectsarrestedforreligiouslyinspiredterrorism2010to2014.Source:Europol,EuropeanUnionTerrorismSitua;onandTrendReport2015.

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LonewolvesEUTerroristincidentsin2014281 attacks in the UE:

11 in France (4%), 1 in Belgium (4%)28 deaths in the EU:

1 in France (4%), 4 in Belgium (0,4%)

281

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1

Terroristincidentsoccurredin2014

EU

France

Belgium

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1

4

Deaths2014

EU

France

Belgium

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LonewolvesEUterroristincidentsin2015281 attacks in the UE:

10 in France (50%), none in Belgium153 deaths in the EU:

147 in France (96%), none in Belgium

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5

0

Terroristincicentsoccurredin2015

EU

France

Belgium 153

147 0

Deaths2015

EU

France

Belgium

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LonewolvesEUterroristincidentsin20167 attacks in the UE:

3 in France (43%), 1 in Belgium (14%)34 deaths in the EU:

32 deaths in Belgium (94%), none in France

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3

1

Terroristincidentsoccurredin2016

EU

France

Belgium

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0

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Deaths2016

EU

France

Belgium

DatabyApril2016 13

LonewolvesEUterroristincidentsin2014-2016

Numberofterroristincidents Deathsoccurred

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100

150

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250

300

350

2014 2015 2016

Belgium

France

EU

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150

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2014 2015 2016

Belgium

France

EU

Period:1/1/2014-30/4/2016 14

TheriseofforeignfightersintheSyrianconflict(2011-2016)

Overallforeignfighters2011-2016 Overallforeignfighters2014-2015

ConflictsinMuslimcountries:1980tomid-2010,~10,000-30,000foreignfighters.Afghanistan:1980s,~5,000–20,000foreignfighters(Hegghammer,2011).

2011-2015 2011-2015 2011-2016

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5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

TheSoufanGroup,2015 IEP,2015 McGurk,2016

June2014 2016

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

ICRS,2015 McGurk,2016

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TheEUresponse

•  CriminaljusDce•  ExchangeofsecurityinformaDonthrough

EuropolandEurojust•  Schengenareaexternalborderscontrol

(Frontex)•  Internetcensorship•  PassengerNameRecord(PNR)•  Moneylaunderingmeasures

AccordingtoTheSunonSundayinjustthreemonthsthelonewolfmanualreleasedbya-QaedainSpring2013hasbeendownloaded55,000Dmes(4,000Dmesinaweek)usingUKIpaddress.Noneedmoneytomakehome-madebombs 16

TheriseofEUforeignfightersintheSyrianconflict(2011-2015)

2011-June2014

2011-Dec2015 2011-2015 2011-2015

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

TheSoufanGroup,2015 IEP,2015 Europol,2015

AccordingtotheTSGForeignReport,byJune2014about2,500EuropeanstravelledtoSyriatojoinjihadigroups.ThisnumberdoubledbyDecember2015.FrenchauthoriDesesDmatesabout1,800peoplewholelFrancetojointhejihadigroupsinSyria;760fromtheUK;760fromGermany;470fromBelgium. 17

Es&matednumberofEUforeignfightersinSyriaandIraqbycountryoforiginin2014

Source:MunichSecurityReport2016. 18

EUforeignfighters:Belgiumtopcontributorperinhabitant

Source:TheInternaDonalCentrefortheStudyofRadicalisaDonandPoliDcalViolence(ICSR),2015.19

TopEUforeignfighterscontributors

Source:TheInternaDonalCentrefortheStudyofRadicalisaDonandPoliDcalViolence(ICSR),2015.20

UrbanfightersØ  90-100%offoreignfighterslive

inurbanareasin5EUStatesthataccountfor9%oftotalEuropeanvolunteers(Belgium,France,Germany,andtheUnitedKingdom)

Ø  Over30%offoreignfightersoriginatefromlargemetropolitanareasorperipheralsuburbsof9countries(Austria,Belgium,Bulgaria,Denmark,France,Germany,theNetherlands,Spain,andtheUnitedKingdom)

Ø  AccordingtotheTSGForeignReportbyDecember20151,800fighterscomefromFrance,760fromtheUK,760fromGermany,470fromBelgium.

Source:TheForeignFightersPhenomenonintheEuropeanUnion.Profiles,Threats&Policies,2016.

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ThePariscaseØ  Parisisthefilhlargest

municipalityintheEuropeanUnion

Ø  ParisisthemostdenselypopulatedcityintheEU:21,616people/Km2withinthecitylimits,withthreedepartmentswithapopulaDondensityofover10,000people/Km2

Ø  Parisisthesecondmostpopulousmetropolitanarea

Ø  ParisisamongthetenmostdenselypopulatedareasoftheEU(EU-28populaDondensity116.3inhabitants/Km2)

Ø  ParisandtheÎle-de-Franceregion-sincethe1stJanuary2016reunitedunderthenewMetropolisofGreaterParis-hostsoneofthelargestconcentraDonsofimmigrantsinEurope.

Source:Eurostat,2014accordingto2012Frenchcensus

Sta&s&caldemographicsplanofParisandtheÎle-de-Francerégion

Source:J.M.Schomburg,2006 22

Anurbancontext•  Île-de-France:12millionpeople(18.2%FrenchpopulaDon)•  Parismetropolitanarea:12,341,418people(1/5FrenchpopulaDon)•  Parisurbanarea:10,5millionpeople(includingsuburbs)•  Pariscity:2,5millionpopulaDon•  Immigrantsaccountfor18%ofthepopulaDonoftherégionparisienne,

threeDmesthatoftheprovince(7%)•  Île-de-France:2,161,000immigrantsand1,531,000foreignersresidents•  Parisurbanarea:38%ofimmigrants(2.2millionpeople)and17%ofnon-

immigrants(10.2millionpeople)•  Between2009and2013,morethan32%immigrantsarrivinginFranceare

havesePledintheÎle-de-Franceregion•  Inmetropolitanareaslive2,637,170(46,2%)ofoverallimmigrant

populaDonlivinginFrance•  Halfofthe5,716,220immigrateslivinginFranceareresidentsinthis

suburbs(thebanlieus)•  Eightoutoftenimmigrantsliveinmajorurbancenters,againstsixoutof

tennon-immigrants•  Pariscity:22,4%ofallimmigrantslivinginÎle-de-France•  ThebanlieuesoftheurbanareaofParisarethehometo1,591,260

immigrates(27,8%ofallimmigrateslivingintheParisurbanarea)•  Parisregion:627,078residentsimmigrantsfromtheMaghreb,435,339

fromsub-SaharanAfricaandEgypt,69,338fromTurkey•  Pariscity:135,853residentsimmigrantsfromtheMaghreb,70,852from

sub-SaharanAfricaandEgypt,5,059fromTurkeySource:INSEE,FrenchNaDonalInsDtuteofStaDsDcsandEconomicStudies,2012censusdata

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ThestrangerFrancehas65.2millioninhabitants,ofwhich5.7millionimmigrants

Source:Insee,2012census 24

MapofmedianannualsalaryrevenuesinEurosinParisandsomeParisiansuburbs

Source:20minutesof11December2007,accordingtoINSEEandAPUR(AtelierParisiend'Urbanisme)

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Therootsofradicalisa&on&thepathtoterrorism

Sociologicalperspec&ve•  Islamisapretextforthe

manifestaDonofviolenttendenciesthroughterroristacts

•  Manyjihadistsarepronetoviolenceorhaveacriminalrecord

•  ExpressionofcontrastsbetweenpopulaDonslikefootballviolenceormetropolitangangs

•  SearchofasharedidenDtytogetoutofanonimityandfeelpartofacommunity(theUmmah)

Socio-economicperspec&ve•  poverty•  prejudice•  marginalizaDon•  socialexclusion•  unemployment•  economicinequality•  underdevelopment•  insecurity•  disease

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Ridersofthelostiden&tyintheurbanjungle

Ø  GeographicalfactorsplayacriDcalrole(CollierandHoefler,2007)Ø  Inthemetropolistheresistanceoftheindividualtobeinglevelled,swallowedup

(Simmel,1903)Ø  Thestranger'sacDvityisolenviewedasanunpleasantbynaDvemembersof

socieDes(Simmel,1908)Ø  Socialinequalityreflectsnaturalinequality(Durkheim,1893)Ø  Consciousness(norms,beliefsandvalues),whichformthemoralbasisofthe

society,holdingittogetherandresulDnginsocialintegraDon(mechanicalsolidarity),itsrequisitefuncDonwithoutwhichthesocietycannotsurvive(Durkheim,1893)

Ø  AnomieisapathologythatcouldleadtoabreakdownofsocialintegraDonanddisintegraDonofthesociety(Durkheim,1893)

Ø  Crimeisanormalsocialfact:itreleasescertainsocialtensions(Durkheim,1893)Ø  Religion,whichisthemostfundamentalsocialinsDtuDonofhumankindandgave

humanitythestrongestsenseofcollecDveconsciousness,representsacommondenominatorandasourceofcamaraderieandsolidarity(CraigJ.Calhoun,2002)

Ø  TheindividualbelievesthatbyadheringtomoralitytheyareservingthecommonGood,andforthisreason,theindividualsubmitsvoluntarilytothemoralcommandment(Kant,1785)

Ø  Themoralauthorityisprimarilytobelocatedinreligion(Kant,1785)

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Recruitmentstrategy

Al-MuhajirunisajihadistfrontforforeignfightersestablishedinJune2015includingJabhatal-Nusrah(al-Qaeda’sbranchinSyria)andHarakatAhrarash-Shamal-Islamiyya.

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Mediaandcommunica&on•  Thecounter-ISISmediaand

communicaDonstrategyisimplementedbyal-Qaeda.

•  TheHollywoodRealityofal-Baghdadi'sGroupisavideoreleasedbyHidayyahMediaFoundaDon(amediaoffshotofal-Qaeda)inFebruary2016.

•  ThevideoallegesthattheIslamicStatefakesitsvideos.

•  Al-QaedaandtheIslamicStatehavebeenreleasingpropagandaagainsteachothersinceApril2013,whenal-Baghdadi’saskedal-QaedatopledgeallegiancetoISIS,andclaimedJabhatal-Nusrawaspartofhisnetwork.

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Counter-ISISnarra&ve

•  Muslimsarenotcriminals,releasedbyKefahMediainDecember2015,showsamockISISexecuDonbeforetheal-Jabhaal-Shamiya(theLevantFront)fighterstakeofftheirmasksandencouragecounter-ISISnarraDvewithprisonersshownbeingtaughtandimprisonedratherthanexecuted.

•  ThisanD-ISISvideooffersaninteresDngcountermessageanddistancesfromthetruevaluesofIslamfromthecriminalviewsofISIS.

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10yearsa_ertheEUCTStrategy•  LiPleornothinghasbeendonetoputinplacethefirst

pillar,whichaimistopreventradicalisaDonbytacklingitsrootcauses,andaverDngrecruitmentandaccesstotraining.

•  Noneofthe“keyprioriDes”setoutforprevenDonhavebeenimplemented:

Ø developamediaandcommunicaDonstrategyØ promoteeducaDonandeconomicprosperitythrough

assistanceprogrammesØ developinter-culturaldialogueØ developanon-emoDvelexiconfordiscussingtheissuesØ understandingtheissuesanddeveloppolicyresponses

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Thanksforyourkinda<en&on

Lacommediaèfinita! 32

Followme!Contacts:•  E-mail:info@marcomarsili.it-

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