A Longitudinal Analysis of Divorce and Suicide in Canada

Frank Trovato

Journal of Marriage and the Family, Vol. 49, No. 1. (Feb., 1987), pp. 193-203.

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A Longitudinal Analysis of Divorce and Suicide in Canada

FRANK TROVATO University of Alberta

Cross-sectional and time series studies in the United States demonstrate that divorce is directly related to the national suicide rate. The present investigation is a longitudinal analysis of this relationship for Canada during the time interval from 1950 to 1982. During this phase of recent Canadian history, both divorce and suicide rates have followed ascend- ing trends. The multivariate analyses in this research provide results that are generally con- sistent with previous findings for the United States, but some deviations from the expected pattern are also noted. It was found that in Canada, the national rate of suicide varies directly with the rate of family dissolution, even after the effects of unemployment and females'participation in the labor force were taken into account simultaneously. It was an- ticipated that unemployment and suicide would be directly associated; however, the results in this study fail to confirm this prediction for the nation as a whole, but among relatively young cohorts there is indication that for men, unemployment is positively related to suicide mortality. Concerning participation of females in the economy, the association of this variable with self-inflicted death is found to be positive only for males, at the national level of analysis. Among relatively young cohorts, however, this relationship is significant only among females, and the sign of the effect is negative.

Evidence based on the experience of the United ple, in Canada, the rate of family dissolution in States reveals that at the systems level of analysis, recent years has been approximately 2.5 per one the rate of family dissolution is directly related to thousand population, while it is approximately the rate of suicide (Stack, 1980a, 1980b, 1981, 5.0 in the United States. 1985; Wasserman, 1984). Although there have The strong association between divorce and been a number of cross-sectional studies in suicide in the United States may be a function of Canada linking divorce to suicide (Cumming, that nation's heightened levels of divorce and Lazer, and Chisholm, 1975; Trovato, 1986), the other societal factors that are known to be associ- longitudinal relationship between these two vari- ated with an increased propensity to commit sui- ables has not gained much empirical attention. cide. Whether the same degree of association be-

A comparison of Canada and the United States tween these two variables prevails in Canada is a with respect to a variety of social indicators, in- question that requires empirical verification. A cluding suicide and divorce rates, reveals that certain threshold of the incidence and prevalence both countries follow similar historical patterns, of family dissolution may be necessary in a society but the levels in the American states are often before significant increases in the rate of suicide twice as high as those found in Canada. For exam- occur. Given that Canada's divorce rate is signifi-

cantly below that of the United States, will we find empirical confirmation that divorce in

The author expresses thanks to two anonymous Canada has a significant impact on the national reviewers for their helpful comments on an earlier ver- sion of this paper, and to Val Irwin and Shirley suicide rate? Stawnychy for their secretarial assistance. This study provides a diachronic analysis of the

linkage between divorce and suicide mortality in Department of Sociology, University of Alberta, Ed- Canada, utilizing time series data from 1950 to monton, Alberta, Canada T6G 2H4. 1982. During this time span, Canada has been

Journal of Marriage and the Family 49 (February 1987): 193-203 193

JOUKNAI_OF MAKRIAGE AND T H E FAMILY

characterized by escalating divorce rates. For ex- ample, in 1951 the crude divorce rate was only 37 per 100,000 population, but by 1982 it had risen to 286 per 100,000 (Statistics Canada, 1984b). Dur- ing the same interval the suicide rate increased from 7.6 per 100,000 in 1951, to 14 per 100,000 in 1982 (Statistics Canada, 1984a). If it can be demonstrated that the longitudinal relationship between divorce and suicide is similar in the United States and Canada, we will have further confirmation for the generality of this phenome- non across industrial societies undergoing rapid change in the family institution.

HYPOTHESES

In the Durkheimian formulation of social in- tegration and self-destruction, the divorced are as- sumed to experience significant losses in their in- tegration to the family institution and conse-quently suffer greater odds of suicide in relation to the married population (Durkheim, 1951). The empirical evidence generally supports this propo- sition (Danigelis and Pope, 1979). At the micro level of analysis, investigators have confirmed that the role transitions associated with divorce engender high levels of psychological distress that in some cases may lead a person to commit the ex- treme act of suicide. In a recent study, Gerstel. Kohler, and Rosenfield (1985) found that the severing of marital ties is indeed a significant source of psychological trauma.

Stack's (1982) comprehensive review of macro- sociological studies on this topic provides over-whelming evidence that in the majority of cases, both nationally and cross-nationally, the inci-dence of suicide mortality is lower among married persons than among either the single, the wid- owed, or the divorced. Maris's (1981) assessment of suicide in the United States shows that beyond age 20, the rates of self-inflicted death are higher among divorced persons than among those of any other marital status category.

Stack (1981: 78) provides a Durkheimian inter- pretation of this phenomenon by contending that divorce represents a fundamental weakening of social integration with respect to the domestic in- stitution. The dissolution of the family unit repre- sents important losses of regulation in one's life such as the presence of children, marital obliga- tions, and the existence of social supports in one's marital kin networks (Danigelis and Pope, 1979; Gerstel, Kohler, and Rosenfield, 1985; Gibbs, 1982; Gibbs and Martin, 1964; Veevers, 1973). In accordance with previous work in the area of status integration, the central hypothesis of this study is that the greater the rate of divorce over time in Canada, the higher the suicide rate.

The proposed longitudinal relationship between family dissolution and suicide needs to be evalu- ated systematically with a multivariate methodol- ogy. As Stack (1981a: 78) has warned, both divorce and some control variables, such as unem- ployment, need to be assessed simultaneously in any diachronic analysis of suicide because it is not immediately obvious whether a rising divorce rate is more important than some other factor in the incidence of suicide.

In order to provide an adequate assessment of the research hypothesis in this study, the multi- variate analysis includes two control variables that have received wide application in previous work in this area of research. The first variable is drawn from the domestic integration-suicide literature: the rate of female participation in the labor force. The second control variable, drawn from the economic-anomie theory of suicide, is the unem- ployment rate (Stack, 1982, 1985; Wasserman, 1984). Both of these variables have been found to be associated with suicide mortality.

Economic conditions have been considered im- portant determinants of the national suicide rate in a variety of international contexts. A compre-hensive overview of the relevant literature by Hor- witz (1984) suggests that economic loss, particu- larly as a result of unemployment, is related to in- creased rates of psychiatric symptoms and suicide. However, Platt (1984), paying particular attention to the studies linking unemployment to suicide, has reached the conclusion that despite the firm evidence of an association between these two vari- ables, there are cases that fail to demonstrate the expected relationship of an increase in suicidal be- havior in times of increasing unemployment. This study is designed to ascertain the extent to which unemployment and suicide are related and whether the empirical findings conform to general expectations concerning the impact of unemploy- ment on the national suicide rate.

Day (1984) has executed a detailed cross-national study of mortality from non-war violence. He reasoned that unemployment at the systemic level is one of several manifestations of social disorganization in contemporary society, and it is partly responsible for rising rates of mor- tality due to "external causes" (e.g., homicide and suicide).

In a recent study of the association between domesticlreligious individualism and suicide in the United States covering the time interval from 1954 to 1978, Stack (1985) discovered that d i ~ o r c e and unemployment are both significant predictors of suicide. Similar conclusions were drawn in a study by Wasserman (1984). His interpretation of such findings are stated within the Durkheimian

195 DIVORCE AND SUICII>E IN CANADA

perspective in that historical changes in suicide derive primaril!, from the declining importance of community and kinship in industrial society; therefore, high levels of unemplcyment often pre- cipitate psychological crises in a context ivhere the indi\idual is left to his own dc\ ices \?.ithotit the traditional support of kinship and community. Consistent with the literature concerning eco-nomic anomie and suicide, thc prediction in rhis study is that the higher the rate of unemployment, the higher the suicide rate in Canada.

The female labor force participation rate is used as another control variable because of its theoreti- cal relevance to the study of domestic integration and suicide. Furthermore, it provides an addi-tional measure of economic involvement in con- temporary society. South (1985), for example, proposed that female labor force participation may be considered an index of economic oppor- tunities for married women; as the rate of employ- ment for u-omen increases, so does their economic independence. An increase in suicide may be asso- ciated u-ith gains in female involvement in the economy (Davis, 1985; Stack, 1978).

Some authors havc conceived of t'emale labor forcc participation as representing a wakening of dome<ric integration (Cumniing et al., 1975; hc\vnian, \bthittemore, and Nem'man, 1973; Stack, 1980, 1981b). Stack (1981b: 209) presents this \~ienv as foilo\vs:

First, high female labor force participation may result in more women committing suicide due to a strain between household and working rtspon- sibilities. . . . Second, high female labor force participation may be associated ~vith higher rates of male suicide. The working wife, in some cases, may indicate failure to the husband who feels he has not fulfilled the role expectations of bread- winner. In addition, if the resulting marital con- flict hinders the husband's occupational perfor- mance, the double failure pattern results and suicide potential increases.

To the extent that female labor force participation reflects a weakening in the integration of the marital unit, it is hypothesized here that the higher the level of female labor force participation in Canada. the higher the national suicide rate.

The inclusion of unemployment and female labor force participation in a multivariate analysis allows for the execution of a more controlled in- vestigation of the relationship between divorce and suicide. This research design guards against the possibility of spuriousness because it is con- ceivable that at the systems level of analysis, the correlation between suicide and divorce may be due to their common association with unemploy- ment. Moreover, the simultaneous inclusion of three predictor variables into the analysis, as op-

posed to divorce only, permits muitiple tests of competing hypotheses (Chamberlein, 1965) and hence a more substantive evaluation of theory concerning the phenomenon of suicide in contem- porary society. Because of the importance of gender differences in mortality, morbidity, and distress, as reported in the literature (e.g., Ber- nard, 1972: Cove, 1972, 1973; Verbrugge, 1979), the analysia is cvccuted ceparately for males and females, as \$ell as tor the natlon as a whole.

DATA AND METHODS

The data in this study consist of aggregate longitudinal information with respect to suicide, divorce, unemployment, and female labor force participation in Canada from 1950 to 1982. The suicide rate is measured as the number of suicides per 100,000 population, while divorce is coded as the number of persons divorced per 100,000 pop- ulation. The unemployment measure is the number of unemployed persons as a percextage of the civilian labor force. Female participation in the cconomy is coded as the number of women aged 15 and older engaged in full-time employ- ment as a percentage of the civilian labor force. The sources of data for these measures are the yearly vital statistics and labor force publications by Statistics Canada.

The statistical technique used is multiple regres- sion analysis. .4s is the case with many other studies involving time series data on suicide (e.g., Marshall, 1981; Pierce, 1967; South, 1985; Stack, 1982, 1985; Wasserman, 1984), ordinary least squares (OLS) regression was found to be inap- propriate because of problems of trending and serial correlation among the variables.' For this study a modified regression approach was chosen, namely, the Cochrarie-Orcutt iterative differenc- ing technique, the method usually employed in time series studies, to solve for trending and auto- correlation (Kmenta, 1977).'

RESULTS

Table 1 shows average rates of suicide, divorce, female labor force participation, and unemploy- ment in Canada from 1950 to 1979, by 10-year in- tervals. Although there are a number of fluctua- tions, all four variables show an increasing trend over time. These temporal patterns are displayed graphically in Figure 1.

An initial indication from these series is that changes in suicide have been accompanied, in varying degrees, by changes in divorce, unemploy- ment, and female participation in the economy. However, it is not possible to ascertain the relative impact of these variables on suicide mortality unless we first execute a multivariate analysis.

196 JOURNAL OF MARRIAGE AND THE FAMILY

FIG. 1. TIME SERIES OF THE SUICIDE RATE,THE DIVORCE LABORRATE,THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE,AND THE FEMALE FORCEPARTICIPATION 1950 TO 1982RATEIN CANADA,

TABLE 1. AVERAGERATES OF SUICIDE, DIVORCE, FEMALELABOR AND UNEMPLOY-FORCE PARTICIPATION, MENT IN CANADA,1950-1979, BY 10-YEAR INTERVALS

Period Variable 1960-69 1970-79

Total suicide rate per 100,000

Total divorce rate per 100,000

Total unemployment rate per 100

Female labor force participation rate Der 100

Note: Standard deviations in parentheses.

Table 2 presents the zero-order intercorrelation matrix of the variables used in this analysis. The bivariate correlations are based on the untrans- formed data and are therefore subject to the ef- fects of trending. Under such circumstances the bivariate correlations among variables will be

quite high; therefore the multivariate regression analysis was executed on the Cochrane-Orcutt transformed variables. In fact, after the Cochrane-Orcutt adjustments, the correlations were greatly reduced in magnitude and did not pose problems of multicollinearity. The correla- tion matrices for the transformed variables are shown in the Appendix.

The correlations in Table 2 suggest that the predictor variables are directly associated with suicide regardless of whether it is the total suicide rate or the rate for males or for females that is be- ing examined. The graphs in Figure 2 show that there are some differences in the trend and pattern of self-destruction by gender. For women, suicide began to increase rapidly soon after 1960. The level of male suicide mortality has always ex-ceeded that of women, and their rate of suicide began a noticeable ascendance just prior to 1970.

Table 3 shows results of regression analyses per- taining to the total national suicide rate, the male suicide rate, and the female rate of suicide, respec-

DIVORCE AND SUICIDE IN CANADA

TABLE 2. CORRELATION MEANS, DEVIATIONSMATRIX, AND STANDARD -

Variables (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) X SD

1. Total suicide rate 1 .OW 95 .94 .66 .95 .97 9.91 2.89 2. Male suicide rate 1.000 .95 .71 .95 .98 14.78 3.99 3. Female suicide rate 4. Unemployment rate 5. Female labor force

participation rate 6. Divorce rate

tively. Both ordinary least squares and the Coch- rane-Orcutt adjusted equations are shown in the table. First- and second-order adjustments for serial correlation are presented because the first- order adjustment did not sufficiently eliminate problems of autocorrelation in some cases. In the total suicide rate equation, the only significant predictor of suicide is the divorce rate. The OLS results suggest that the female labor force par- ticipation rate and unemployment are significant predictors of the total suicide rate, but as indi- cated by the Durbin-Watson d statistic, the equa- tion is plagued by autocorrelation and cannot be relied on for substantive conclusions.

For females, both OLS and first-order equa- tions show divorce and unemployment to be im- portant determinants of suicide, but both models are also affected by autocorrelation. The second- order adjustment regression equation shows, as in the previous instance in connection with the total suicide rate, that divorce is the only significant predictor of the female suicide rate. The initial results for the male suicide rate indicate that divorce is also the strongest predictor of the dependent variable; and the second-order equa- tion produces a significant direct effect of female

1.000 .55 .93 .93 5.04 1.85 1.000 .67 .73 5.16 2.02

These findings support the hypothesis that at the national level of analysis, divorce is directly related to the incidence of suicide. Concerning un- employment, however, the statistical results fail to provide support for the prediction that job loss is associated with increases in suicide mortality in Canada. As seen in the regression results, female labor force participation is generally not a signifi- cant predictor of the overall suicide rate in the na- tion, but it does contribute to a small increase in the rate of suicide among Canadian males.

Stack (1978: 651) reports a similar finding based on his analysis of the association among female participation in the economy, industrial- ization, economic growth, and suicide. Increasing involvement of females in the labor force may cause some degree of insecurity and feelings of in- adequacy among male spouses, thus tending to in- crease men's propensities to suicide. A more rigorous test of this hypothesis is needed before definitive statements about this relationship are possible. It may be that this relationship applies only to certain groups of men in society. For ex-ample, the feelings of inadequacy may precipitate suicide under certain conditions, such as when the wife is the main breadwinner of the household, as

labor force participation rate on the male suicide opposed to the husband. In situations where both rate as well.

FIG. 2. SUICIDERATESFOR MALES IN CANADA,AND FEMALES 1950 TO 1982

--

TABLE 3. OLS REGRESSION EQUATIONSAND COCHRANE-ORCUTT ADJUSTED OF T H F REI.ATIONFHIPFIRS.I.-A N D SFCOND-ORDER KEC;RESSIONS RETWFEN SUICIDE, DIVORCE,UNFMPI.OYMENT, I'EMALF LABOR IoRCE PARTICIPATION IN CANADA,1950-1982A N D RATES

-- Total Suicide Kate -- Female Suicide Rate __ Male Suicide Kate

First- Second- First- Second- First- Second-Order Order Order Order Order Order

Variables OLS Adjustment Adjustment OLS Adjustment Adjustment OLS Adjustment Adjustment

Divorce rate ( h ) .0242* .0167* .0159* .0236* ( B ) .710 .490 ,466 1.164 (1) 8.991 3.289 3.080 14.829

I.emale labor ( h ) .1527* ,026 I .0278 .0417* force partici- ( B ) ,369 ,063 .Oh7 .281 pation rate ( I ) 5.001 .374 .389 5.068

Unemployment ( h ) .1447* .Oh10 ,0742 .2097* rate ( B ) . I 0 1 .043 ,052 . 2 3 6

( I ) -2.450 .847 1.03 1 -2.877

Constant 3.252 7.132 7.098 2.528

t2utocorrelation presence Yes Yes No Yes Yes No Yes No

-- . .--~~-p - -

Note: h is the regression coefficient; B is the standardized beta weight. *I statistic sigriificant at .01 level.

**I statistic significant at .05 level. ***I statistic significant at .10 level.

DIVORCE AND SUICIDE IN CANADA

spouses are actively engaged in the labor force and the conjugal relationship is generally symmetrical in both financial and nonmaterial dimensions, the propensity for suicide among both men and women may be weakened because of the overall well-being of both spouses. Ideally, a test of this hypothesis would involve micro-level data. In the present case we have aggregate data, and direct in- ferences about individual phenomena are not possible (Robinson, 1950; Wasserman, 1984).

The lack of an unemployment effect is surpris- ing because much of the evidence in the literature establishes that unemployment is usually associ- ated with increased rates of mortality due to suicide, at both micro and macro levels of analysis (e.g., Day, 1984; Horwitz, 1984; Maris, 1985; Marshall, 1981; Platt, 1984; Wasserman, 1984).

In order to explore this issue further, I decided to evaluate the possibility that the suicide rate is a function of lagged independent variables (Pierce, 1967). The following equation was used in order to test for lagged effects:

SUI, = a + BUN,. , + BFLP,. , + BDIV,. , where the subscript t - 1 denotes a lag of one year; SUI = suicide; U N = unemployment, and DIV = divorce.'

In Table 4, the lagged model fails to provide a satisfactory explanation of the total and the female suicide rate because none of the effects are statistically significant. Only in the case of the male equation are there significant influences of divorce and unemployment on the odds of sui- cide. It is interesting to note, however, that while the sign of the divorce coefficient is in the ex- pected direction, the unemployment term persists in showing an inverse association with the depen- dent variable, and its statistical significance is only at the .10 level. This suggests that unemployment may be inversely associated with suicide mortality in Canada when divorce and female labor force participation rates are held constant and lagged effects are considered. In comparative terms, divorce is a stronger predictor of suicide than either unemployment or the labor force participa- ,ion of Canadian women.

These findings are not totally consistent with the overall results obtained by Stack (1985) in the United States, who found that both divorce and unemployment are significant determinants of suicide at the national level and also among rela- tively young age cohorts. In order to assess whether similar results would be obtained among relatively young age cohorts in Canada, separate analyses were executed for males and for females from 15 to 34 years of age. The regression results are presented in Table 5.

* * N m b * m m v r * d m d a m m N b 0 m m - - b m m m - m a a z 99'? 99% ?9? 9 =! ':

d I I I I - m -

cc m m o m - m m m - m e m - 6 o o m - o m m o o m m w m 299" 993 999

l ':019-I l 6

m - w U r - b w m r - m t -m r- - m " w 6 w - - r - - m e 0 m m aly o ' ; . ~ y y o o y z ? r *

200 JOURNAL OF MARRIAGE AND THE FAMILY

The equations reflect some important devia- tions in relation to the results derived earlier. In this case, divorce is found to be inversely associ- ated with the suicide rate among females in the 15-34 age group; moreover, women's labor force participation shows a significant negative effect on suicide, while unemployment continues to have no substantive bearing on the phenomenon being investigated. Among males aged 15-34, family dissolution is not significantly related to suicide, and the rate of women's involvement in the economy is not a significant predictor of young men's risk of self-inflicted death. However, unemployment appears to have a small positive influence on the probability of suicide among young male age cohorts.

Considering these divergent results, it appears that at the national level of analysis the hypothe- sized relationship between divorce and suicide is supported, but when specific age-sex cohorts are examined, the sign of this association changes from positive to negative. In the case of unem- ployment, the initial findings failed to provide any support for the hypothesis that the higher the rate of job loss, the higher the suicide rate, but it was later determined that for young men the loss of work is indeed a determinant of suicide mortality.

The separate relationships between suicide and each of the three predictor variables in this study are not uniformly consistent; they change as one moves from an analysis at the national level to the examination of specific subgroups in society-in this case, age-gender categories. This discrepancy probably arises as a function of cohort effects (Ahlberg and Shapiro, 1984). Different age groups observed at any given time actually belong to distinct generations that possess radically dif- ferent life experiences as a consequence of social historical events during critical stages of their life cycles (such as war and economic depression). For example, Winsborough (1978) has shown that cer- tain cohorts of men in the United States who ex- perienced war and economic depression during their formative years as young adults were later shown to have above-average rates of divorce and marital disruption. Hogan (1978) has argued that cohorts that do not follow a normative order of life-cycle stages are subject to increased difficul- ties during their span of life. This is a topic worth pursuing in the context of suicide differentials in Canada. There is also evidence that in the United States, the relative size of cohorts is an important factor in explaining differences in suicide rates. Ahlberg and Shapiro (1984) found that when the ratio of younger to older cohorts of male workers rises disproportionately, income and aspiration diverge for the young, and one possible extreme

reaction to this disequilibrium is an increase in suicide rates.

From the findings in this research, it appears that for young adults in Canada, divorce is not likely to be a factor in an individual's propensity to commit suicide. In fact, among young men, it may not be of substantive importance at all, while for young women, divorce actually reduces the odds of dying from suicide. Future research is needed to address this phenomenon among young women in Canada. Perhaps this unexpected find- ing may be explained in the context of the Bernard (1972) thesis that marriage protects men and women differently from potential distress and that, in general, marriage is more stressful to women than it is for men. Divorce among young women may represent an escape from the stresses associated with unrewarding unions, and with in- creasing economic independence they are able to cope effectively with the dissolution of their mar- riages. Among younger women, therefore, the ef- fects of divorce on suicide may be negative rather than positive. For young men (but not for all men in general), we saw that unemployment con-tributes to increased rates of suicide. This may reflect our society's continuing traditional role ex- pectations for males as the principal breadwinners of their households. The loss of such an impor- tant role in times of increasing unemployment is a source of psychic distress that may precipitate sui- cide for a significant number of Canadian males in the early adulthood stage of their life cycle.

A search of the relevant literature in Canada revealed one other study (Adams, 1981) that specifically linked suicide with unemployment. Consistent with our overall results (see Table 4), Adams found that the unemployment rate is in- versely associated with male suicide even after lagged effects of up to five years were introduced into the multivariate equation. The Canadian situ- ation may differ from that in the United States in that periods of unemployment actually reduce the suicide potential rather than increase it. The work of Stack and Haas (1984) would suggest that the duration of unemployment would be a more sig- nificant predictor of suicide than the unemploy- ment level per se. However, Adams (1981) found that average duration of unemployment in Canada does not contribute significantly to the risk of suicide; and furthermore, the direction of effects was quite similar to those observed with the unemployment variable. Even when lagged ef- fects were considered, all the significant suicide mortality equations were inversely related to dura- tion of unemployment. In fact, Adams found that suicide mortality is considerably less likely to be related to average duration than to the total un-

DIVORCE AND SUICIDE IN CANADA 201

TABLE 5. COCHRANE-ORCUTTFIRST-AND SECOND-ORDERADJUSTED OF THE RELATIONSHIPREGRESSIONS BETWEEN SUICIDE, DIVORCE, UNEMPLOYMENT LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION AND THE FE~MALE RATE IN CANADA,1950-1982; MALESAND FEMALESAGED15-34

Females 15-34 Males 15-34 First-Order Second-Order First-Order Second-Order

Variables Adjustment Adjustment Adjustment Adjustment

Divorce (b) -.2400* -.2121** -.3465 -.2505 (B) -.243 -.215 -.099 -.072 (0 -1.741 -1.635 -1.038 -.762

Female labor force (b) -.0705** -.0831* -.I173 -. 1237 participation rate (B) -.I13 -.I34 -.053 -.056

( 0 -1.536 -1.812 -1.061 -1.093 Enemployment rate (b) ,045 1 .0447 .1421** .1436**

(B) .I87 .I85 .I66 .I68 (t) 1.200 1.190 1.550 1.660

Constant 5.122 5.013 15.338 14.802 R 2 .907 ,911 .955 ,960 Durbin-Watson d 1.923 1.574 1.468 1.660 Autocorrelation presence No Yes Yes No

Note: b is the regression coefficient; B is the standardized beta weight. *t statistic significant at .O1 level.

**t statistic significant at .05 level.

employment rate. These findings tend to reinforce Platt's (1984) concern that the unemployment- suicide relationship is not always positive nor always statistically significant. It is fair to say, however, that in the majority of studies reviewed independently by Platt (1984), Horwitz (1984), and Day (1985), unemployment is found to be a significant source of psychological distress and to be directly related to suicide.

Perhaps the findings in this study may be due to the relatively short duration of unemployment for persons in Canadian society. The average dura- tion of unemploynent since the early part of the 1970s was approximately three months, rising gradually in recent years (Adams, 1981). Unem- ployment duration may have a certain threshold or "tipping point" before it translates into in- creased odds of suicide mortality. It may be that the duration of unemployment in Canada is below the threshold level necessary to produce signifi- cant overall increases in the rate of suicide, not- withstanding the evidence in the literature that in general the loss of work is deleterious to one's health and well-being (D'Arcy and Siddique, 1985; Stern, 1983).

CONCLUSION

This study generally confirms the Durkheimian proposition that at the national level of analysis divorce is directly related to suicide mortality be- cause it represents a significant breakdown in the social integration of the marital institution. Cana- dian time series data for the period from 1950 to 1982 show that the higher the divorce rate, the higher the national suicide rate, even after the ef-

fects of unemployment and female labor force participation are taken into account simultane- ously.

The economic-anomie theory of suicide did not receive strong support from the results in this study; it gained partial support only in connection with the male cohort aged 15-34. The surprising finding that unemployment in Canadian society may be negatively related to male suicide should be examined in future research to derive a more complete understanding of how loss of work may translate into a reduction in the propensity to commit suicide.

Female labor force participation was intro-duced into the regression analysis as a measure of domestic integration; it was hypothesized that in- creased rates of economic independence for women lead to a weakening of marital integration and hence increase the odds of suicide in society. Only limited support is offered for this hypothe- sis. It was found that female participation in the economy has only a small positive effect on the overall national suicide rate among males. How- ever, in the equations for males aged 15-34, no such relationship resulted, while for females aged 15-34, labor force participation decreases their odds of self-destruction.

This gender differential in the way the involve- ment of females in the economy influences suicide is worthy of further examination. It would be in- teresting to see whether micro-level studies would uncover similar results derived with aggregate data. Our results are not consistent with the no- tion that an increased rate of female participation in the economy is responsible for increases in the

JOURNAL OF MARRIAGE AND THE FAMILY

rate of suicide, as others have claimed (e.g., Davis, 1981; Newman et al., 1973; Stack, 1982). As women (particularly married women) increas- ingly become involved in the labor force, the posi- tive effects of this trend, both material and psychic, may actually outweigh the negative con- sequences of their lower degrees of involvement in traditional domestic roles (Cumming et al., 1975).

In summary, the evidence uncovered for the Canadian case concerning the divorce-suicide phenomenon suggests that, although some dif-ferences prevail, Canada and the United States are similar in that, in both countries, increased levels of family dissolution are directly related to in- creased levels of suicide n~ortality. Further research should be undertaken to examine how temporal changes in the family institution, such as rising rates of divorce, declining marriage trends, and so on, translate into increased suicide rates, and also to investigate the linkages between sui- cide and unemployment and between suicide and female labor force participation in industrial na- tions other than Canada and the United States.

FOOTNOTES

1. The Durbin-Watson d statistic is the index most often used to detect the presence of autocorrelation. In this study the number of obser~ations is 32, and the number of predictors is 3; therefore, the appro- priate critical \,slue of rl testing for positive auto- correlation is 1.65; the appropriate d value testing for negative autocorrelation is 2.79. For a complete discussion of the Durbin-Watson statistic, refer to .Ian Kmenta, Elements of E~~onornetrics(New York: Macmillan, 1977), pp. 295-297.

2. The Cochrane-Orcutt method estimates the value of p (an adjustment factor), on the basis of the residu- als from the regression equation specified. The tech- nique uses an iterative algorithm to find p based on the transformed data from the previous value of p . This process continues until p converges. The final equation uses the last value of p to adjust for auto- correlation. With this technique the original data are transformed from observed rates to changes in rates. This procedure detrends the series and purges the data of autocorrelation. A detailed discussion of this procedure may be found in Jan Kmenta, Elements of Econometrics (New York: Macmillan, 1977), pp. 287-289. The statistical package used is SHAZAM.

3. Slodels with two-year lags were attempted, but the results did not differ substantively from those reported here.

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DIVORCE AND SUICIDE IN CANADA 203

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APPENDIX INTERCORRELATION'MATRICESFOR THE COCHRANE-ORCUTTFIRST-AND SECOND-ORDER

ADJUSTMENT ANALYSESREGRESSION

TABLE A. INTERCORRELATIONS IN TABLEFOR EQUATIONS 3 -

Total Suicide Rate - Total Male Suicide Rate Total Female Suicide Rate Unemploy- Unemploy - Unemploy-

Divorce FLFPR ment Divorce FLFPR ment Divorce FLFPR ment

Divorce 1.00 -.58 -.I7 1.00 .05 .24 1.00 .04 -.23 FLFPR -.60 1.00 -.04 -.01 1.00 -.69 .02 1.00 .12 Unemployment -. 13 -.02 1 .OO .27 -.73 1.00 .09 -.I6 1.00

TABLE B. LAGGEDEQUATIONS -

Total Suicide Rate Total Male Suicide Rate Total Female Suicide Rate Unemploy- Unemploy- Unemploy-

Divorce FLFPR ment Divorce FLFPR ment Divorce FLFPR ment

Divorce 1.00 -.61 .53 1.00 -.39 -.07 1.00 -.36 -.09 FLFPR -.59 1.00 -.56 -.46 1.00 -.I5 -.28 1.00 -.I5 Unemployment .51 -.38 1.00 -.02 -.I3 1.00 -.I5 -.20 --1.00

TABLE C. AGE BY GENDEREQUATIONS -

Males 15-34 Females 15-34 Divorce FLFPR Unemployment Divorce FLFPR Unemulovment

Divorce FLFPR Unemployment

Note: On all appendix tables, correlations abote the diagonal correspond to first-order adjustment coefficients; those below the diagonal correspond to second-order adjustment coefficients.

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References

Durkheim's Theory of Suicide as Applied to the Family: A Empirical TestNick Danigelis; Whitney PopeSocial Forces, Vol. 57, No. 4. (Jun., 1979), pp. 1081-1106.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0037-7732%28197906%2957%3A4%3C1081%3ADTOSAA%3E2.0.CO%3B2-J

Explaining the Symptomatology of Separated and Divorced Women and Men: The Role ofMaterial Conditions and Social NetworksNaomi Gerstel; Catherine Kohler Riessman; Sarah RosenfieldSocial Forces, Vol. 64, No. 1. (Sep., 1985), pp. 84-101.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0037-7732%28198509%2964%3A1%3C84%3AETSOSA%3E2.0.CO%3B2-N

Sex, Marital Status and SuicideWalter R. GoveJournal of Health and Social Behavior, Vol. 13, No. 2. (Jun., 1972), pp. 204-213.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-1465%28197206%2913%3A2%3C204%3ASMSAS%3E2.0.CO%3B2-V

Sex, Marital Status, and MortalityWalter R. GoveThe American Journal of Sociology, Vol. 79, No. 1. (Jul., 1973), pp. 45-67.Stable URL:

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Testing the Theory of Status Integration and Suicide RatesJack P. GibbsAmerican Sociological Review, Vol. 47, No. 2. (Apr., 1982), pp. 227-237.Stable URL:

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The Variable Order of Events in the Life CourseDennis P. HoganAmerican Sociological Review, Vol. 43, No. 4. (Aug., 1978), pp. 573-586.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0003-1224%28197808%2943%3A4%3C573%3ATVOOEI%3E2.0.CO%3B2-W

The Economy and Social PathologyAllan V. HorwitzAnnual Review of Sociology, Vol. 10. (1984), pp. 95-119.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0360-0572%281984%2910%3C95%3ATEASP%3E2.0.CO%3B2-5

Political Integration and the Effect of War on Suicide: United States, 1933-76James R. MarshallSocial Forces, Vol. 59, No. 3. (Mar., 1981), pp. 771-785.Stable URL:

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Women in the Labor Force and SuicideJohn F. Newman; Kenneth R. Whittemore; Helen G. NewmanSocial Problems, Vol. 21, No. 2. (Autumn, 1973), pp. 220-230.Stable URL:

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The Economic Cycle and the Social Suicide RateAlbert PierceAmerican Sociological Review, Vol. 32, No. 3. (Jun., 1967), pp. 457-462.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0003-1224%28196706%2932%3A3%3C457%3ATECATS%3E2.0.CO%3B2-%23

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Ecological Correlations and the Behavior of IndividualsW. S. RobinsonAmerican Sociological Review, Vol. 15, No. 3. (Jun., 1950), pp. 351-357.Stable URL:

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Economic Conditions and the Divorce Rate: A Time-Series Analysis of the Postwar UnitedStatesScott J. SouthJournal of Marriage and the Family, Vol. 47, No. 1. (Feb., 1985), pp. 31-41.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-2445%28198502%2947%3A1%3C31%3AECATDR%3E2.0.CO%3B2-Y

Suicide: A Comparative AnalysisSteven StackSocial Forces, Vol. 57, No. 2, Special Issue. (Dec., 1978), pp. 644-653.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0037-7732%28197812%2957%3A2%3C644%3ASACA%3E2.0.CO%3B2-D

The Effects of Marital Dissolution on SuicideSteven StackJournal of Marriage and the Family, Vol. 42, No. 1. (Feb., 1980), pp. 83-92.Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-2445%28198002%2942%3A1%3C83%3ATEOMDO%3E2.0.CO%3B2-W

The Effect of Domestic/Religious Individualism on Suicide, 1954-1978Steven StackJournal of Marriage and the Family, Vol. 47, No. 2. (May, 1985), pp. 431-447.Stable URL:

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The Relationship between Marital Dissolution and Suicide: The Canadian CaseFrank TrovatoJournal of Marriage and the Family, Vol. 48, No. 2. (May, 1986), pp. 341-348.Stable URL:

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Marital Status and HealthLois M. VerbruggeJournal of Marriage and the Family, Vol. 41, No. 2. (May, 1979), pp. 267-285.Stable URL:

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A Longitudinal Analysis of the Linkage between Suicide, Unemployment, and MaritalDissolutionIra M. WassermanJournal of Marriage and the Family, Vol. 46, No. 4. (Nov., 1984), pp. 853-859.Stable URL:

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