Panelist:Roberto Véras de OliveiraAssociate Professor at Federal University of Paraíba - BrazilVisiting Researcher at IRLE-UCLATitle:BRAZIL'S CURRENT CRISIS, THE DEMOCRACY ISSUE AND WORKERS RIGHTS**I thank the contributions of Judy Branfman and Antonio Actuary

BRAZIL'S CURRENT POLITICAL CRISISForum on Facts, Concerns & Questions aboutBrazil' s Current Political CrisisSponsor(s): UCLA Center for Brazilian Studies, UCLA Department of History, UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs Department of Urban Planning, UCLA Luskin Global Public Affairs, UCLA Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, UCLA Department of Political ScienceMay 4, 2016

1. Some historical characteristics of Brazilian society (central aspects of THE historical relationship between democracy and workers)2. The promise of the 1980s (changes in the political role of workers during the country's democratization process)3. The 1990s: the hard era (workers’ loss of rights and erosion of their collective power)4. PT in Government: the renewed promise and its paradoxes (achievements, limits, and paradoxes that this new political environment represented for worker organizations)5. Ingredients and trends of the current crisis (the current crisis focusing on its consequences and possibilities for workers and Brazilian democracy).

PRESENTATION PLAN:

• Under the legacy of slavery, social inequality became one of the structural conditions of Brazilian society.• Despite important shifts brought about by industrialization, which gained momentum from the 1930’s forward, the advancements that followed were not able to overcome entrenched inequalities.• According to Brazilian sociologist Guilherme dos Santos, beginning in the 1930's the country has adopted a mode of regulation of the capital accumulation process which he called "regulated citizenship" (cidadaniaregulada), founded not on political values, but on the basis of an occupational stratification system.• Brazilian society became basically segmented between "citizen" (those with officially recognized occupations) and "pre-citizen" (with non-recognized occupations).• Three main institutions were basic to this model: the regulation of professions, the legal work contract, and the officially controlled unions.

1. SOME HISTORICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF BRAZILIAN SOCIETY

• Comparing the Brazilian with the European and American cases, the country’s industrialization took place later, wage work only took root in part of the economy, and the incorporation of social protection mechanisms was restricted and kept under state control.• This arrangement was established in correlation with profound social segmentation (implying social gaps among classes, genders, ethnicities / races, generations, regions of origin and others).• With the second boost to industrialization, which occurred in the 1950s, a growing social gap resulted from a polarity between the dynamic sector, integrated into the world economy, and the rest of the economy, including a heterogeneous range of production and work models, which is kept in a dependent relationship with the other pole.

The legacy The two Brazils

Debret Uma família brasileira do início do século 19 retratada por Jean-Baptiste Debret: Foto: Tuca Vieiramulher submissa ao marido. Foto: Reprodução/Jean-Baptist http://www.tucavieira.com.br/A-foto-da-favela-de-Paraisopolis(https://www12.senado.leg.br/jornal/edicoes/especiais/2013/07/04/na-epoca-do-brasil-colonial-lei-permitia-que-marido-assassinasse-a-propria-mulher)

2. THE PROMISE OF THE 1980s• A big concentration of industrial workers in large companies—especially Multinational automotive—in the industrial region surrounding São Paulo has created the new Brazilian working class core.• The broad and strong workers struggles that erupted in the mid-1970s changed the terms of political debate throughout Brazilian society.• With creation of organizations such as the Workers' Party (PT), the Single Confederation of Workers (CUT), and the Landless Rural Workers' Movement (MST), among others, the base of the so-called democratic and popular field was established.• The democratic and popular field based on a new practical-discursive matrix, which was built mainly of movements like New Unionism, new social movements, liberation theology, and the New Left, involved segments as different as metal, financial, oil, urban services, education, telecommunications, civil construction, trade, transport, public services, landless, small farmers, self employed, household employees, and unemployed, among others.

• BY the end of this decade, with its massive struggles, new political and social organizations and new leadership was launched on the national scene. Even though limited, the 1988 Federal Constitution represented important and unpublished social and political advances, becoming a turning point In the Brazilian democratic trajectory.• These new formal rights, of course, would require a strong commitment to enforcement. But along came the 1990s...

Workers’ strikes – 1978/1980

´https://estadioprimeirodemaiosbc.wordpress.com/2013/09/page/2/

The direct elections campaign – 1984

http://www.oabsp.org.br/portaldamemoria/historia-da-oab/a-redemocratizacao-e-o-processo-constituinte/

Constituent Assembly 1986-1988

https://www.google.com/search?q=constitui%C3%A7%C3%A3o+de+1988&biw=1348&bih=614&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjI6OKthsnMAhVDw2MKHZ74DQkQ_AUIBygB#imgrc=DgEUeIlmm6YJuM%3A

1988 Federal Constitution

http://www.brasil.gov.br/old/copy_of_imagens/linha-do-tempo/linha-do-tempo-historia/nova-constituicao-1988/view

3. THE 1990S: THE HARD ERA• The neoliberal wave arrived in Brazil in the early 1990s with the Fernando Collor Government.• Brazil’s participation in the globalization era was accelerated, and this intensified the restructuring of production, which put the economy in line with the new capitalist dynamics of flexible accumulation.• In terms of its implications for the workers, one of the most important changes was the extensive use of outsourcing by companies. In this context, the defense of "deregulation" of labor relations gained strength with government and business support.• During the two governments of Cardoso (1995-1998 and 1999-2002), deregulation of the labor market was intensified, accompanied by the frame of unemployment and the weakening of unions.• Thus, the privatization program advanced, despite union resistance (especially from CUT), reaching into sectors of strategic importance for the economy and for unionism (steel, telecommunications, banking, energy, etc.).

• The most active unions (linked to CUT) were put in a defensive position, in contrast to their strength in the 1980s.• Several factors contributed to this: liberalization policies and privatization of the economy; rising unemployment; the anti-union and anti-labor governmental position; and competition from the (more conservative) Union Force federation (Força Sindical), among others.• But a new framework arose with the election of Lula to the presidency, in 2002.

Presidents:Collor: 1990-1992Itamar: 1992:1994Cardoso 1: 1995-1998 Cardoso 2: 1999-2002

Annual average minimum wage - in Real (source: DIEESE)

http://www.redebrasilatual.com.br/trabalho/2015/12/aumento-real-do-minimo-chega-a-77-desde-2002-e-injeta-r-57-bi-na-economia-8046.html

4. PT IN GOVERNMENT: THE RENEWED PROMISE AND ITS PARADOXES• Lula's election raised high expectations.• Lula's and PT's history and program focused on the defense of the social demands, production, development and the rescue of the national project, signaled a counterpoint to neoliberalism.• However, the government as a heterogeneous coalition had to deal early with strong conflicting interests, including:Workers’ and poor’s social demands, derived from the unequal character of Brazilian society;business owners' demands for better production environment;financial market's demands, seeking to submit the country to its logic;and pressures from a broad set of politicians eager to exchange political support by benefits, a historical source of corruption.

• Nevertheless, the government was able to carry out a development program, especially during Lula’s second term (2007 to 2010) and Rousseff’s first term (2011 to 2014).

Presidents:Lula 1: 2003-2006Lula 2: 2007-2010Rousseff 1: 2011-2014Rousseff 2: 2015

Bolsa Família - Income transfer federal program Housing federal program

Investment federal program Training federal program

• Although such limitations and contradictions, the government was able to carry out a development program, especially during Lula’s second term (2007-2010) and Rousseff’s first term (2011-2014).• From state enterprises and private companies, main investments were centered in sectors like energy, transportation, housing, sanitation, and water, in addition to public policies with social impacts.• The Brazilian economy regrows. The Chinese economy pulled a huge global demand for primary commodities (taunting a strong increasing in their prices), which favored Brazilian exportation enormously. Beside this, diverse mechanisms of reinforcement of the workers’ and poor’s income (with raising the minimum wage, expanding credit for consumer, and making cash transfers to the poor – through Bolsa Família) have contributed to boost a domestic consumption boom.

Open unemployment annual rates(%) – metropolitan regions

http://brasildebate.com.br/taxa-de-desemprego-aberto-em-regioes-metropolitanas/

Gini index

• As result, social indicators have had significant improvement,the unemployment rate fell,the degree of formality increased,the average income among workers and poor grew,and the poverty had a historic decline.

• Although these governments have sought changes and have been the target of constant opposition from the large media, they could account with important political support, thanks of the Lula’ and PT’ popularities as well as of the broad alliances, and the good performance of economy as a whole. But, such support had as counterpart a gradually and systematic erosion on the relationship between PT's Government and unions and social movements, which became more highlighted when Rousseff substitutes Lula.

http://blog.planalto.gov.br/categoria/bric-e-ibas-2010/ http://blog.planalto.gov.br/assunto/cupula-dos-lideres-do-g20/

http://www.gazetadopovo.com.br/mundo/com-discurso-afinado-mercosul-agora-mira-novos-membros-ego9avsidwp1kuczx9fe71ydqhttp://www.conectas.org/en/actions/business-and-human-rights/news/40155-four-principles-for-the-brics-bank

• The domestic economic and social successes, combined with an internationally proactive and independent position launched Brazil as an important international player, had a central role in international arrangements like G-20, Brics and Mercosul.• Beside this, certain social processes (some of them taking place for a long time) have been converging over the last four years to create a conservative wave. a systematic media campaign against the PT's Governments, especially seeking to associate them with corruption; the huge growth of new evangelical churches and their political representatives; growing repressive discourse from media and the other social agents, as response to increasing everyday violence; and dissemination of conservative and fascist attitudes among middle class segments.

“Mensalão” (monthly pay-offs) trial

http://www.olhardireto.com.br/juridico/noticias/exibir.asp?noticia=Mensalao_-_Veja_como_foi_o_1%B0_dia_do_julgamento_dos_38_reus&id=899

Evangelical Protestant church - Solomon Temple – São Paulo

http://ultimosegundo.ig.com.br/brasil/2015-09-04/inaugurado-ha-um-ano-templo-de-salomao-ainda-funciona-com-alvara-provisorio.html

Dissemination of repressive speech

http://www.carosamigos.com.br/index.php/cotidiano/5470-comite-da-onu-critica-violencia-policial-contra-criancas-no-brasil

Protesting against violence

http://www.ceert.org.br/noticias/genero-mulher/5747/20-de-novembro-um-dia-para-lembrar-a-discriminacao-cotidiana-das-mulheres-negras

• The episode of the mensalão scandal, as named by media (which could be translated for "monthly pay-offs"), was an important cause for Lula's Government losing partial support of his middle-class electorate. Since then the main electoral base of PT's Government became centered In poor communities, which benefits from the new social programs, although support from unionized workers had been maintained (with some defections).

5. INGREDIENTS AND TRENDS OF THE CURRENT CRISIS• In 2012 clear signals appeared that the Brazilian economy would not keep UP the same performance, mainly due to decreasing of commodities' international prices and due to exhaustion of government mechanisms to boost internal income and consumption.• In June 2013 a wave of massive protests erupted that has been until now very difficult to explain. Most likely they have resulted from a convergence of several factors. Among of them, campaigns against rising bus fares; the emerging of new consumers and higher work incomes (that scholars read as either "new middle-class" or "new working class") generated new social demands, like housing, transport, education, health and others; indictments of corruption around the World Cup construction; the left-wing groups, dissatisfied with the PT and Government saw in those protests the opportunity to attack their "conciliation politic"; whereas the emergent right-wing groups saw there the opportunity to show up and to attack the PT and Government as "communists“.

• In that moment the social indicators were kept on high levels.

June 2013 protests

https://outrapolitica.wordpress.com/tag/protestos-populares/

• In November 2014 a new presidential election was held. The PT competed in 1989, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010 and 2014, running against PSDB's candidates in the last 6. Lula ran in 5 elections, while Rousseff ran in the last two. Among those, the PT won the last 4. • In 2014, the context changed. Twelve years of government associated with systematic corruption indictments by large media, and with support of legal agents undermined the social and political base of the PT's Government. Even with Rousseff's victory ( with 3 per cent lead over her opponent), the balance of power had changed. The electoral process finished with the country divided in half, marked by big demonstrations by each half. Since then the political framework has been very unstable.• In mid-2014 the Operação Lava Jato ("Car Wash" operation) of the Federal Police was installed, focusing in signs of corruption involving Petrobras’ managements, politicians and companies contractors. The investigation has been showing great signs of corruption in the majority of and the largest parties, including pro and cons Government. But PT, Government and allies has been complaining of selective procedures and in tune with media targeting their summary condemnation.

2014 Elections - results by state

http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2014/10/1538856-dilma-conquista-cidades-vencidas-por-marina-no-1-turno.shtml

Final result

https://www.publico.pt/mundo/noticia/presidente-do-brasil-1674229

• In this environment, huge and successive protests have been driven by basically two themes: the Right's banner against corruption and defense of Rousseff's impeachment. they have been counting on greater presence of the white middle-class and support by assumed right-wing groups with young middle-class activists - some of whom propose the return of a military regime. They have been marked by use of the color yellow and the shirt of Brazil’s soccer team. The counterpart has been recurring demonstrations in defense of democracy and social rights, and against Rousseff's impeachment, organized by unions and social movements. The color red prevails at these events along with symbols of the involved movements.• How do both PT and the Government contributed towards this context? their strategic alliances have crossed prudent lines (contaminating the PT practices and those of its left-wing allies); they have not made the reform of communications and other important reforms, such as political, agrarian, tax, and others, a priority. they have assumed there will be a tolerant attitude about political partisanship by the Justice operators. since early 2015 the PT has adopted a recessive macroeconomic policy and they have not prioritized a close relationship with social movements.

Protests for "impeachment“

https://www.google.com/search?q=protestos+pelo+impeachment+de+dilma&biw=1348&bih=614&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjl-p6jk8nMAhVW5mMKHa4PBLgQ_AUIBygC#imgrc=XYKANw5fhadXTM%3A

Protests against the "coup“

http://brasil.elpais.com/brasil/2015/12/17/politica/1450314124_110516.html

5.1 About the main actors in the current scenario (who are playing?)• The LARGE MEDIA - led by Globo Organizations - have had great influence over public opinion, acting in a organized way in the defense of their economic interest and of a clearly conservative perspective. They have been monolithically hostile to the PT and any left-wing thought, and have become one of the main sponsors of the Rousseff's impeachment.• Extreme RIGHT-WING GROUPS have been mainly acting via social networks, feeding fascist attitudes via the Internet and public spaces, seeking to intimidate and embarrass people from PT and other left-wing groups. They already are allied with representatives in local, state and federal parliament.• POLITICIANS WHO ARE GUIDED BY A MIX OF CLIENTELISTIC PRACTICES AND CORPORATE INTERESTS (many of them have just stopped supporting the Government), include those articulated around new evangelical Protestant churches, repressive agents, and large land owners. They are known as the BBB group – acronym in Portuguese for “Ballet, Bible and Ox”. Many of them are under indictment by the Justice Department. Now they are a important political force, dominating the Nacional Congress and giving support to the impeachment project. Likely they will be the largest base of the new government if Rousseff is impeached.

• Among those favoring the impeachment process and integrating the current conservative wave, there are several JUSTICE DEPARTMENT OPERATORS, from lower instances to the higher courts. Either through omission or partisanship attitudes, they have been becoming an important component of this particular process and of this context as a whole, lending to excessive behaviors a legal varnish.• PSDB AND ITS CLOSEST ALLIES have been one of the most important political grouping since early 1990s, including as opposition to the PT's governments. Now when Rousseff's dismissal may materialize they have passed to second plan, whereas the current Vice-president, the PMDB, and Congress's most conservatives and clientelistics have become the new main political force.

• Even though the relationship between PT'S GOVERNMENT, UNIONS, AND SOCIAL MOVEMENTS has been eroding more explicitly since the start of Rousseff's second term, these connections are shifting again. Over the last months, with systematic attacks against the Democratic State of Law and against the left-wing groups, not only this relationship has been recomposing but has also been increasing its joint opposition to the conservative and neo-liberal offensive. However, it seems, these segments will have to deal with the next unfavorable and hostile framework.• Also in the left-wing field, there are SOME UNIONS, SOCIAL MOVEMENTS AND PARTISAN GROUPINGS, which are in minority proportion, that don't want closer relations with the left's majoritarian segments.

Main actorsLarge media

http://www.pragmatismopolitico.com.br/2015/03/a-imprensa-e-o-papel-das-midias-no-brasil.html

Right-wing groups

https://www.google.com/search?q=pedindo+interven%C3%A7%C3%A3o+militar&biw=1348&bih=614&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj5qf7CmcnMAhUW0mMKHdHkB-oQ_AUIBigB#imgrc=eIqCkwjDD-v8MM%3A

BBB group (deputies)Green: evangelical ; blue: security; Yellow: large rural owners

http://blogmanueldutra.blogspot.com/2015/04/bala-boi-e-biblia.htmlLegal operators

http://terradedireitos.org.br/linhas-de-atuacao/justiciabilidade-dos-direitos-humanos-e-democratizacao-da-justica/

PSDB

http://jornalggn.com.br/noticia/como-aecio-implodiu-com-o-psdb

Left-wing forces and social movements

http://occalertabrasil.blogspot.com/2015/06/frente-de-esquerda-e-novo-plano-e.html

5.2 Impeachment: the first round• “On Sunday April 17th the lower house of Brazil’s congress held a special session to vote on whether the president, Dilma Rousseff, should be put through an impeachment trial. The charge is that her government had fiddled government accounts, concealing their parlous state. But hardly any of the federal deputies who spoke in the raucous, viciously partisan televised special session even mentioned this. Instead, as opponents of impeachment assailed them as liars, thieves, bigots and coup-mongers, they cited a more eclectic bunch of reasons for their votes” (http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21697095-hardly-any-federal-deputies-favour-impeachment-gave-stated-charges-their).• Beside and behind of this outcry against corruption and around the Rousseff’s impeachment campaign there is a strong dispute between a developmentalist and distributive project and a neoliberal and conservative project.• For the neoliberal and conservative political representatives has been so difficult to win a presidential election in Brazil. Hence this bet on a heterodox output: a coup d'etat with legal varnish.

Most federal deputies voted in favor of impeachment

http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21697095-hardly-any-federal-deputies-favour-impeachment-gave-stated-charges-their

Deputies in favor of impeachment: some reasons for their votes• For the birthday of my granddaughter• For the foundations of Christianity• For Bruno and Felipe• For the Masons of Brazil• For the congregation of the “Quadrangular” [an evangelical church]• For the aged and children• For an end to welfare dependency• For charismatic renewal• For you, mom• Against the Bolivarian dictatorship• For Brazilian doctors• Because of the communism that threatens this country• In homage to my city’s founding day• For peace in Jerusalemhttp://www.economist.com/news/americas/21697095-hardly-any-federal-deputies-favour-impeachment-gave-stated-charges-their

5.3 What is it in dispute?• Democratic Rule of Law: what will it result from the current crisis?• Corruption issue: what will be the conception and priorities and how will it combated?• Pre-salt oil fields and the other natural resources: what regulation standard will prevail?• Petrobras and the other state firms: what importance will it have on the economy as a whole and on the government capacity to drive the economy?• Labor law and social protection: will be possible to block the avalanche of measures announced by National Congress targeting labor rights' subtractions• Public education and health: what consequences will they suffer?• Social policies: under risks of serious restrictions and conceptual changes?• Civil rights (gender, race/ethnicity, child, LGBT and others): risk of backlash?• Brazil as a global player: how will be guided the Brazil's international action?

• Will Brazil enter into an era of backlash (political and social)?• What repercussions will this case have on Latin America and in world terms?