35
Bolivar 1 Jose C Bolivar Dr. Ueng Finance Spring 2014 Chinese Investment in the US, and its effects on the local economies Introduction In a 2010 report by Columbia University titled “Chinese multinationals gain further momentum,” found that 16 of the top 18 Chinese assetholding companies in the United States are stateowned enterprises (SOEs). China is known for its centralized management system which has been key to their rapid expansion. This is a strategy position, which has helped its business and economic plan. Most companies are administer and regulated by the Chinese Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, under the control of the State Council. A couple of these companies have become more independent in their governance mechanisms, while also establishing individual market oriented strategies. The Chinese State has acknowledged that in order for Chinese firms to be competitive in a global economy, firms must adapt to international standards.Many of these Chinese multinationals during the last decade have increased their international expansion, establishing their economic power in the United States. This report will analyze the impact on investment in the local and national economy. A year ago journalist Xu Zhijun posted a picture of a clean plate of food on Weibo, China’s social media version of Twitter. Xu Zhijun moved from a small town to Beijing and noticed the high amount of food that went to waste in the city. His picture posted on Weibo, showed a caption that read “Operation Clean Plate.” The rapid industrialization and economic growth of the last decade in China has brought in many benefits for the Chinese people. In major industrialized centers, the Chinese people enjoy the fruits of this rapid industrialization and economic growth. Resourcefulness of food resources is a good measurement of the state of an economy and its people’s financial well being.

Chinese Investment in the US, and its effects on the local economies

  • Upload
    stthom

  • View
    0

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Bolivar 1

Jose C Bolivar Dr. Ueng Finance Spring 2014

Chinese Investment in the US, and its effects on the local economies

Introduction

In a 2010 report by Columbia University titled “Chinese multinationals gain further momentum,”

found that 16 of the top 18 Chinese asset­holding companies in the United States are state­owned

enterprises (SOEs). China is known for its centralized management system which has been key to their

rapid expansion. This is a strategy position, which has helped its business and economic plan. Most

companies are administer and regulated by the Chinese Assets Supervision and Administration

Commission, under the control of the State Council. A couple of these companies have become more

independent in their governance mechanisms, while also establishing individual market oriented

strategies. The Chinese State has acknowledged that in order for Chinese firms to be competitive in a

global economy, firms must adapt to international standards.Many of these Chinese multinationals during

the last decade have increased their international expansion, establishing their economic power in the

United States. This report will analyze the impact on investment in the local and national economy.

A year ago journalist Xu Zhijun posted a picture of a clean plate of food on Weibo, China’s

social media version of Twitter. Xu Zhijun moved from a small town to Beijing and noticed the high

amount of food that went to waste in the city. His picture posted on Weibo, showed a caption that read

“Operation Clean Plate.” The rapid industrialization and economic growth of the last decade in China

has brought in many benefits for the Chinese people. In major industrialized centers, the Chinese people

enjoy the fruits of this rapid industrialization and economic growth. Resourcefulness of food resources is

a good measurement of the state of an economy and its people’s financial well being.

Bolivar 2

The Following graph provides a visualization of the increasement of Chinese disposable income

in the last four decades.

In 1980, China’s average of disposable income was $280, a decade later the disposable

income increased to $316. At the turn of the century it had increased to $760, by 2012 the disposable

income was an average of $3000. It is important to note that due to the centralized and un­transparent

nature of statistics provided by the Chinese State, it is very difficult to have accurately numbers

regarding the average disposable income. As of now, there is not an official recognized “middle class” in

China. Helen Wang, author of The Chinese Dream: the Rise of the World's Largest Middle Class

and What It Means to You, notes that "a rule of thumb is that a household which uses a third of its

income for discretionary spending, should be considered middle class. The “un­official middle class” is

gaining strength in its purchasing power and its new attraction to western consumerism. This “un­official

middle class” is rapidly changing the face of China. After Xu Zhijun posted the picture on Weibo,

Bolivar 3

“Operation Clean Plate” started as a movement started to eliminate waste across all urban

areas.Consumption has been an influential variable in increasing the waste across China.

Consumption index is used to measure the strength and vitality of an economy. This index can

be measured in order to provide a different and unique look at an economy. This paper for its analysis,

will be focusing on consumer confidence as it relates to the consumer optimism of the state of the

economy, and individual confidence of their individual financial situation. The graph below, provides a

visualization of how China measures against the global average, from years 2012 to 2013.

Chinese consumer confidence has decreased from 102.90 in October of 2013 to 98.90 in

November of 2013. This index has been reported by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. From

1991 to 2013, the consumer confidence has average 109.90; in September of 1993 it reached an all

time high of 124.60 and an all time low of 97 in November 2011. The consumer confidence is an index

of 700 consumers over the age of 15 years old, from 20 different Chinese cities, from the provinces.

This composite index covers the consumer expectation and consumer satisfaction index, thus measures

Bolivar 4

the consumers' degree of satisfaction about the current economic situation and expectation on the future

economic trend. The Index measures consumer confidence on a scale of 0 to 200, where 200 indicate

extreme optimism, 0 extreme pessimism and 100 neutrality. For the last three years, Chinese Consumer

Confidence has been relatively higher, than its American and European counterparts. The Following

graphs, shows the changes in regards to Chinese consumerism in the last few years and their purchasing

power of consumer goods.

www.city­data.com

Xu Zhijin, the reporter that started “Operation Clean Plate” comes from rural China, a part of

Bolivar 5

China that has not reaped the benefits of the dragon economy. The dragon economy has brought in

many benefits to the overall Chinese economy, but such benefits have not been distributed across the

board, and across all the levels of society.

China has an economy that is highly unequal and mostly dominated by the state. China’s political

system and contemporary history has contributed to this inequality. Despite economic reforms and the

liberation of the goods markets and the labor market, the state continues to hold a tight grip over most

of the financial institutions. The Chinese financial sector withdraws money from the foreign exchange

earnings and from household savings, then channels it to state­owned firms controlled by the central

and/or local government(s). Having limited options, Chinese households must deposit money in the state

sponsor banks. In today’s China where there’s inflation, depositors earn a negative real interest rate

from these financial institutions. These financial institutions fix deposit rates at a level that is below

inflation. Meanwhile, real estate developers with political connections, and large state­owned enterprises

can borrow money at interest rates that are near zero in real terms. In effect, the Chinese financial

system channels wealth from ordinary households to a small handful of connected insiders and

state­owned firms. The following graph shows the contrast between the set rate and the real interest rate

of the last few years.

Bolivar 6

As we come back to the Chinese restaurant at the beginning of this section, there is a lot of

waste across many Chinese urban areas, areas who have benefited from the progress of the dragon

economy. Xu Zhijun comes from the rural part of China, where this progress has not yet exploded as in

many Chinese urban areas. He notices the waste, and remembers the stories of his parents regarding the

times of famine that the people of China lived through. Xu Zhijun seeks to make a change, but these

new powered consumers are just experiencing capitalism. Waste is a product of a market oriented and

free economy. Waste is factor of the power that the consumer possesses regarding purchase, to

consume is also to waste. Waste is an indicator that an economy is healthy, that the consumer has

power of purchase that the consumer is willing to consume and is confident in doing so. The waste in

China, represents that the consumer are confident about the future prospects of the economy.

At a glance, one can conclude that the Chinese government is acting on the best behalf of the

Chinese consumer. As Chinese firms look for new opportunities to expand abroad and invest in key

Bolivar 7

sectors which will help serve the consumer demand at home. Actions by Chinese firms trouble

Washington, trouble the politicians, trouble the US government. This has become a complex relationship

between the Chinese consumer, the Chinese state, the American consumer and the American

government.

Around the same time a group of 15 bipartisan US Senators send a letter to the Obama

Administration, urging for the Administration to consider the review of the sale of Smithfield Foods Inc

to Chinese privately owned Shuanghiu International. Smithfield is currently the largest pork producer

and processor of pork in the US, operating in 26 US states. It also has operation in Europe and

Mexico, it workforce worldwide account for 46,00 employees. Shuanghiu is the largest meat producer

in China.

Throughout the majority of the US economic history, the nation has welcomed trade and foreign

investment with open arms. The US and Chinese economic relationship is quite complex.

It is important to note that the US has never been in a position where its largest creditor, has also

actively sought investment in its economy. This complex relationship has created a very difficult strategic

partnership of economic growth for parties, specially placing the world’s largest economy (US) in

between a rock and a hard place. The continuing investment in the US by Chinese investors in industries

that have been predominantly domestic firms, has created a hostile environment at the federal levels of

economic decisions. One of the predominantly topics regarding this investment, is the centralized

strategic and managerial vision of the Chinese government.This active investment in the US by China,

has raised the question of and if, a state owned and state sponsor enterprise, should have the

opportunity to invest openly and freely in an open and free US market.

Bolivar 8

For the last 12 months, holdings of US debt by foreign entities have increased by $450 billion, from

55.217 trillion to over $5.6708 trillion. The ten largest foreign holders of US debt are: China ($1.2649

trillion), Japan ($1.1103 trillion), Caribbean Banking Center ($273.1 billion), Oil Exporters ($272.7

billion), Brazil ($252.6 billion), “All Other ($222.6 billion), Taiwan ($186.7 billion), Belgium ($185.7

billion), Switzerland ($183.3 billion), United Kingdom ($163.4 billion). The Chinese portfolio of US

debt has increased 8.63% over the past 12 months.

Local Economy View: A Focus on North Carolina

Bolivar 9

“The N.C. Department of Commerce, the North Carolina Biotechnology Center, Longistics, the

Bolivar 10

North Carolina China Center (NCCC), the China Investment Promotion Agency (CIPA), Calvert

Research, LLC and The Hamner Institutes for Health Sciences, under its new Hamner­China

Biosciences Center,have announced their joint participation in the N.C. China Global Gateway Platform

for Investment and Economic Development (the “Platform”) to promote job creation and trade in North

Carolina and China. These partners will cooperate in the development of a new model to attract

investment to NC. This will also support and bolster the foreign competitiveness of N.C. exports with a

process that can be replicated among many economic sectors statewide. Goals for this public­private

partnership include developing an easily understandable and functional Platform which increases

economic development and job creation, accelerating life science development in North Carolina and

China, and establishing a showcase Platform for global life sciences, technology, business and economic

development. (Hammer) “China is North Carolina’s second largest trading partner and continues to

grow,” said Commerce Secretary Keith Crisco. “The establishment of this Global Gateway Partnership

will lead to more jobs, increased exports, and new business opportunities. This innovative approach

can pay big dividends to all participants in the long run.” (Hammer) Former Governor Bev Perdue of

North Carolina, spent two years working, building and encouraging a relationship to increase trade and

investment with China. North Carolina has created a China Advisory Council, a group of leaders and

government officials to provide advice on how better established good relationships with Chinese

government officials. North Carolina also established an office for investment and trade in Shanghai.

North Carolina is investing in building and securing relationships that will benefit North Carolina in the

long term. In 2012, China made a total of nine investments, second only to California, which had ten. In

2012, Chinese investment in N.C. total $47 million, all of the investment included greenfield projects,

which created jobs in the state. Industries such as energy, automotive, electronic equipment, and

Bolivar 11

information technology benefited from the investment. The partnership development that N.C. has

established is starting to reap benefits, Masterwork USA Inc, a Tianjin manufacturer of print finishing

equipment is set to established its US headquarters in the state. The headquarters will include, sales and

customer service center located in Charlotte. 200 new forecasted jobs will move to Charlotte, as

Pactera Technology International Ltd, a Beijing based consulting firm relocates to the US. Chongqing

RATO Power Co. Ltd. and its Denver Global Products subsidiary, would be investing $30.2 million in

a Lincoln County (N.C.) distribution and assembly center for RATO engines and vehicles. By doing

such, Chinese companies are able to have higher sales margins, due to distribution centers and

after­sales service and being able to use the slogan of “Made in the US.”

Due to the benefits that this outside investment is bringing in to the region, N.C. and the

Charlotte region see that for future development and economic growth, Chinese investment will become

vital. The region must seek assistance from established Chinese firms, to help them persuade new firms

to invest in the region. Encourage new entrepreneurs by highlighting the value that Chinese families have

in terms of lifestyle in N.C. and continue to create channels of civic and cultural engagement with China.

FDI in the US can provide both benefits and liabilities to the economy. When FDI comes to the

US, it first affects the local employment. This can be by increasing the employment, if the firm that is

making the investments decides to revitalize the business, or decrease employment if the investing firm

decides to make necessary cuts for the benefit of the business. In 2008, foreign firms employed 6.3

million people in the US, 40% of the 6.3 million, were employed in manufacturing. Also, foreign

companies tend to pay more to the US employee, in 2008 foreign payrolls in the US for US employees

were an approximate of $452 billion, with an implied annual average of $72,000, this number is in fact

much higher than the median annual US compensation. Chinese employers in the US remains small,

Bolivar 12

according to the BEA, Chinese employees employed around 2,500 people in 2008. This number has

dramatically changed and increased in the last two years, as Chinese investment has shift its focus to

more greenfield projects, focusing more on manufacturing and long term growth for the local economies.

This has resulted in insourcing, creating jobs back in the states. Offsetting the previously outsourced of

jobs of the last few decades. This insourcing helps local economies, and it provides it workforce, who

have an asset of skills and know how workforce, which these new companies are seeking.

FDI can also add another positive aspect to the local economy, in terms of research and

development, providing new training to the workforce and introduction on new management methods

that tend to be more effective in some management areas. In September 2007, Sany Heavy invested

$150 million in the US, establishing its American Headquarters in the US. Sany Heavy is a Chinese

heavy machine manufacturing company located in Changsha, Hunan Province, China. Sany Heavy

estimated that the plant was going to create 200 jobs, with an estimate of 600 jobs in the next decade.

In October 2011, Sany Heavy made an additional investment of $25 million on the expansion of the

existing facility. Sany Heavy will be adding a research and development center, approximately creating

additional 300 jobs, with the promise to hire 300 new mechanical and hydraulic engineers. A median

salary of a mechanical engineer in Atlanta, GA is of $65,000 a year.

Following the example of North Carolina, the American public is gaining more interest in the

microeconomic aspect of Chinese investment. Specially regarding how the investment will benefit the

local economy in terms of jobs, infrastructure, and local competitiveness. ]The local economies such as

North Carolina are not as interested in the national security or the effects of the broker relationship

between China and the US, local economies focus first, on job creation.

Going Out Policy

Bolivar 13

The macro view of Chinese foreign direct investment comes in regards to the positivity, that

such investment brings to the market and especially to the consumer. The main of concern in the macro

view of the US economy regarding Chinese investment is national security. The Chinese government

made the decision that economic expansion and common development are of great importance to the

state. The benefits of this decision will help China find needed resources, expansion of markets for its

exports of both goods and services, as well as to promote multinational companies and brands. This will

let China invest in other economies, by establishing Chinese factories, promoting economic development

in the host economy, providing jobs and ultimately achieving market diversification. In the eyes of the

Chinese government, this will help in trade promotion and help reduce trade friction with partner

economies.

In 1999, the CPC Central Committee (Central Committee of the Communist Party of China)

proposed the implementation of the Chinese “Going Out” Policy regarding investment in foreign

economies. This policy has yield results for China, success stories can be found in companies such as

PetroChina (oil and gas), Sinopec (oil and gas exploration and refining) , Huawei (telecommunications),

and CIMC (transportation). These are few examples of companies that have established themselves in

the international market. The implementation of this policy has not been as successful as hoped. One of

the issues that slows down the process of foreign investment is bureaucracy. Currently there are many

layers in existence that slow down the process for a Chinese company to receive the necessary

approval to invest abroad. The second obstacle comes in regards to the “abroad business environment”,

adapting to new ways of running a business, and following the host economy business laws and policies.

Chinese companies face obstacles when it comes to regard of international establishment. Due to

lacking recognition and brand awareness, the companies willing to invest abroad, are limited in the

Bolivar 14

options where their investment is welcomed. One of the last issues is the lack of smart investment and

research before an investment is made. Many of these companies end up failing for lack of

preparedness, readiness and market competition in the entry market. In order for China to continue to

expand its international investment, the “Going Out” policy must be revised. This revision includes

strengthening the companies’ organizations from its service and management, improving and upgrading

current business policies, reform the bureaucracy regarding the implementation of the policy. By

adjusting the following criteria, Chinese companies will be able to better succeed, in terms of their

investments abroad.

The CPC Central Committee affirms that there are several reforms needed. Streamline the

process of approval for foreign direct investment. The state should implement a model for companies to

follow, “who invests, should make the decision, should gain the benefits but also bear the risk.” The

state should adopt a policy that helps and advises companies regarding their investments abroad. How

to fulfill international agreement is a subject that must be addressed. Companies should hold the

knowledge of how to use their rights and protect Chinese interest abroad. Companies should continue

to support domestic industries, industries that have a comparative advantage due to their domestic

production capacity. Diversification should be the key when promoting the marketing of the product

when establish abroad processing centers, marketing, service networks and product research.

Companies should establish clear goals for their internalization, develop cooperation for resource

maximization, promote diversification of imports, and support channels of open trade. Companies

should focus on strong “core competitiveness,” by improving their corporate governance with

international talent, meet international guidelines regarding foreign exchange, expand lines of credit and

improve insurance coverage.

Bolivar 15

Chinese companies should be able to effectively hedge risk. The state should promote the

“Foreign Investment Law,” and other such laws and regulations, in terms of regulation and protection of

international investment. Companies should focus on standardizing their decision making processes, in

order to avoid blind investment on mergers and acquisitions abroad. Enterprises should not engage in

overseas futures, equities, foreign exchange and derivatives trading speculative, these are all high risk

business. These are all high risk business and hedging is challenging and complicated. Companies

should establish and improve business risk assessments, create prevention mechanisms and risk controls

methods. It is also important to prevent money laundering. Embezzlement of state assets should be a

high priority as it will reduce the capital valuable, which is not in the national interest. The state should

seek new partnerships for economic integration with other economies; the state shall also provide

support to companies seeking to invest abroad.

Between the years of 1980 and 2000, it the first stage of the “Going Out Policy.”, Was

implemented China’s cumulative overseas investment was less than $30 billion. During the two decades

the second stage of China’s “Going Out Policy” started in 2000 to 2008, when it became a national

priority and strategy. In November 2001, when China enter the WTO (World Trade Organization) its

investment overseas grew steadily. After the financial crisis, China’s investment grew in size and

numbers, in 2008 that investment surpasses the cumulative amount of 1980 to 2005. By 2011, its

overseas investment reached a total of $365.2 billion, expanding to 178 countries.In 2007 China’s

investment abroad accounted for $26.51 billion, by 2008 it reached $55.91 billion, a 110 percent

increase. By the end of 2009, investment abroad had reached $245.75 billion, compared to less than

$100 million in 1980.

During the global financial crisis, China created the CIC, China Investment Corporation. The

Bolivar 16

CIC invested $5 billion in a stake at Morgan Stanley. The CIC justify its investment, as an opportunity

that opened due to the global financial meltdown. This investment is “strategic” in nature. The success of

the investment is not based on the shareholder’s value, but most importantly based on the value of for

the national stakeholder. This investment is important in maximizing the strategic economic growth and

influence of the Chinese economy.

The Chinese and US relationship its simply complicated. Due to the demand of goods by the

US and the unrestricted debt of the American household, it has created a perfect climate for the present

US and China trade relation. In order for short political gain for both sides the present situation

regarding their investment and trade relationship, continues to be the same. In the US by providing the

consumer more options, and in China by creating a new economic climate and employment.

Economic openness offers many benefits, specialization, reduction in production cost and

competitive prices for the consumer. This allows for businesses to operate more efficiently. Global

integration offers the US many benefits, economic specialization, increase competition in the

marketplace and allows greater economies of scale. Investment provides healthy competition in the

marketplace. In order for the economy to benefit from this direct investment, local operation such as

manufacturing or/and services also need be available in order to bear the fruit from the investment.

For the US consumer, increase competition brings competitive prices, more options to select

from and better quality of services/goods. Foreign investment also brings benefits to the sellers, as the

competition for the assets that their own increases in value.

In 2011, Chinese Company Haire had the world’s largest market share in home related

appliances. Haire sells consumer home appliances, mobile phones, computers, refrigerators, air

conditioning, etc. In 2000, Haire established operations in Camden, North Carolina, by 2002 it moved

Bolivar 17

its US corporate operations to Midtown Manhattan. Haire America is a success story of Chinese

investment abroad. It has been a win­win situation for all parties involve. The Chinese consumer and the

American consumer is able to benefit from a higher value product with a lower price tag. The Chinese

company was able to established itself as a key and predominant player in the industry to which it does

business in. Now, Haire mini­fridges are a standard in university's dorms and mini bars across the US.

In 2005, CNOOC (Chinese Petroleum) did a bid to take over Unocal Corporation. After

several debates, the House of Representatives of the US Congress voted to refer the take over to

President G.W. Bush in regards to matters of national security. CNOOC withdrew its bid after the vote.

CNOOC offer at its initial bid of $16.5 billion to purchase Unocal, Chevron later acquired Unocal for

$17.9 billion. Even if the Chinese bid did not go through due to the perceived risk of national security, at

the end, the Chinese bid helped Unocal shareholders by increasing the value of their shares.

Inward investment also benefits not only the US consumer and the Chinese consumer, but it also

provides a mutual benefit for both corporations. IBM had a weak performing area in their sales of

personal computers. Lenovo purchased IBM’s personal computer division; this helped IBM relieve

itself from a weak division and helped Lenovo with the knowledge and technology that was needed.

The Committee on Foreign Investment in the US (CFIUS) is interested in national security

threats and not on negative economic news that will negatively affect the US economy. The CFIUS is

chaired by the Secretary of the Treasury and has 16 other members from across the US bureaucracy,

including State, Defense and Commerce Departments .

One of the issues that the CFIUS focuses on is in regards to “tariff jumping.” It happens when

an overseas company establishes a division or a manufacturing facility in the country where it wants to

avoid certain tariffs. For example, if a Chinese company wants to avoid tariffs, it will establish a new

Bolivar 18

operation in the US, manufacture or sale its products or services and reap the benefits of having a

location in the US and benefit from the tariffs restrictions. “Reorganization” is a second point that might

bring worries regarding Chinese investment and takeover of industries. If Chinese companies invest or

takes over American industries, the thought is that the high skilled jobs and high paying jobs will leave

the US and the low skilled, low paying jobs will remain at home.

On February 21, 1972, for the first time a United States president visits China. President Nixon

made it a priority of his Administration to open the channels of communication between the US and

China. At the conclusion of the trip, the administration offer the Shanghai Comunique, setting the stage

for an openness of trade and communication. The American­Chinese commerce started before the

United States became independent. It was Chinese tea, that was being taxed by the British that was

emptied in the Boston Harbor for the famous Boston Tea Party. During the 1920, Chinese banks had

direct banking operations in NY. By the eve of World War II, China controlled 47 US enterprises. Due

to the isolationist approach taken by the Communist party of China, these commerce relationships

became stall.

During the 2000s, China had enormous trade surpluses, the Chinese state required companies

to bring back the foreign exchange so that it could be converted into the yuan. During these years, the

Chinese state began investing in US government securities, which lead us to our present time. Now,

China is the largest holder of US debt, In 2009, China held at a minimum of $1.4 trillion in US debt,

$80 billion in corporate equities and $16 billion in corporate debt.

Focusing on China’s Going Out Policy, by 2004 its FDI focused mainly on energy, minerals and

other sectors important to a developing economy. This has dramatically changed, in the last two years

Chinese investment in the US has grown to more than 130%. Due to the lack of knowledge and skills

Bolivar 19

that Chinese companies have, their FDI is focused more on being the broker, rather than directly

investing. It is difficult for Chinese executives to manage companies in the US, due to the different

regulations such as labor, employee rights, environmental regulation etc. In 2009, the BEA (US Bureau

of Economic Analysis) placed the accumulated Chinese FDI stock in the US at $2.3 billion.

Due to the lack of transparency that the Chinese state has regarding their investments. It is

difficult to have reliable numbers of the amount of investment that the Chinese state does. The data that

will be presented is based on professional databases, media and press reports.

There are few examples of Chinese companies acquiring a company for its technology and then

shutting down operation in the US. An example of this behavior happened during the Clinton

Administration, when Magnequech an Indiana based company was purchased by Cox, a company that

had close ties to the Chinese government. After three years of the take over, the last facility was closed

and the assembly was moved to China. These examples are rare, because what attracts the Chinese

firms to invest in the US is the technological jump that the US companies have. Due to this, the US

workforce has the knowledge and skills necessary to use the technological assets that the company has,

something the the Chinese workforce abroad does not have.

Potential security threats that are emphasized when discussing national security are: control over

strategic assets, control over the production of critical defense and transfer of important technology.

Strategic assets include pipelines, ports, airports, defense industries, technological advancements.

National Aspect

The largest threats that the US economy faces, is the threat of interference to its economy. The

special case of China and the US relation is in regards of the potential power that the China economy

will have. First, no nation in the history of US economic and political dominance has been on track to be

Bolivar 20

able to surpass the US GDP in the last century. It is estimated that in two decades China will do so,

changing the international economic landscape. Second, the US and China international relationship is

not friendly. China is not working towards having an eye to eye relationship with the US, China is

heavily investing in its defense for the sole purpose to balance the US military around the world. Third,

the national security risk of state ownership in industries and the real reason and goal that the owner of

the firm has regarding its goals. Fourth, China has a weak trajectory of export control, especially in

regards to controlling exports to not so friendly nations, such as Iran and North Korea. Fifth, threat of

espionage of China in US secrets.

Due to the lack of transparency of the state and the untraceable amount of investment

located in tax heavens, it is difficult to correctly estimate the amount outward investment from China.

The only tractable amount that is provided by the state is a report of approved government investment

projects. This report is generated by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM). The United

Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), relies on the MOFCOM report to track

FDI of China. Industries such as oil and minerals or telecommunications, are required to remain under

the government control. The Chinese government is often in charge of appointing the executives at these

firms and finding way to finance the growth through the use of state banks. The evolution of China's

Outward Investment through the years has been closely correlated to the strategic vision of the state.

In the first stage of Chinese outward investment it includes the years between 1979 and 1985,

when China opens its doors to the world. During this period, only the state owned companies,

provincial and municipal economic enterprises were allowed to invest overseas. In this period, 189

investments were approved by the states, to an estimated amount of $197 million. The second stage is

from 1986 to 1991, during this period the government allowed for more economic liberalization. This

Bolivar 21

allowed for more non­state firms to be able to able to established investment abroad. The companies

had the opportunity to invest if, both of them had the sufficient capital and foreign partner. The third

stage happened between 1992 to 1998, this period was marked by the Asian financial crisis. Due to the

lack of management expertise, corruption and institutional weakness, several Asian countries suffered

many losses. Due to this the state tightened the approval process for investment abroad and began to

closely monitor investments over a $1 million. During this time the outward invest was able to level off,

at the end of the period it was still able to reached $1.2 billion in total investment. By the year 1999, the

“Going Out” policy was established and legislation was approved to help the strategic vision of the state.

In October 2004 the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Export­Import

Bank of China (EBIC) released a jointly report to encourage investment abroad. The report contained

four specific points that are tied to the strategic vision set by the state. First, to invest in resource

exploration, that will help offset the domestic scarcity of resources. Second, promote projects that

export domestic technologies, products, equipment and labor. Third, oversee a research and

development center, in order to utilize international advance technology, managerial skills and people.

Fourth, explore mergers and acquisitions to add to the competitiveness of Chinese firms. As part of the

strategy, the state offers grants for export tax rebates, financial assistance and foreign exchange

assistance for investment in overseas markets. The strategic vision encourages Chinese companies to

enter into joint venture or purchase companies that will help provide the “technological know­how.” By

strategically investing in these firms, the Chinese companies benefit by absorbing the top technology

available and benefiting by taking “leapfrog” in the stages of the development of that technology.

Mergers and acquisitions are a small part of the overall outward investment of China. China looks out

for investment that are “bargains” as an ease to entrance in a develop market. Using this approach,

Bolivar 22

Chinese companies need not to invest in re­branding or investing in their brands, as they can easily

acquire brands that are well known to the market by purchasing them, using the state backed finance.

Successful brand takeovers that are recognizable are Smithfield and the IBM Thinkpad.

China Minsheng, the first private commercial bank in China invested a 9.9% stake ($317

million) in UCBH Holdings, in 2007. China Minsheng was an 11 year old bank at that time, and this

was the first major American investment that the bank had done. During that time, one sole member of

the board of directors voted against the acquisition of shares of UCBH, citing that the bank might be

susceptible to heavy lending by the construction sector and real estate markets, making it vulnerable to

the upcoming financial crisis. China Minsheng move forward with the acquisition, by 2009 the California

Department of Financial institutions was closing down the bank. Later that year Minsheng requested to

take over UCBH, but due to the slow process of approval by the Federal Reserve, the bank closed

down its doors. If the takeover would of have been approved, the US taxpayer would have save $1.7

billion ($300 million in TARP and $1.4 billion in FDIC). When Minsheng first approached the

investment in UCBH it was blindsided by a bank that was making profits above the average of the

industry. “ UCBH recorded a net profit of $101 million in 2006 and it has logged a 26.9% annual profit

growth rate over the past four years, among the highest for an American bank.” (Forbes) It was familiar,

as it was the bank of many Chinese Americans, and its plan to expand in China by purchasing Shanghai

bank, made it a sound investment. Due to lack of oversight and direction, Minsheng Bank ended up

with losses and an unclear direction of how to enter the American financial market. The area of

expertise of UCBH were mortgage and real estate investments, an industry that Minsheng was not very

familiar with. If Mingheng would of have partner and invested in an institution that shared its expertise in

trade financing, a better investment result would of most likely to happened.

Bolivar 23

Expansion of brands has been a key in determining the Chinese investment in the US. in 2007,

the largest Chinese shirt and suit manufacturer Youngor entered into an agreement to purchase

American “Smart Shirts.” This would help Youngor increase its retail arm, as 95% of Smart Shirts

products being sold in the US and Canada, and the rest in Europe. “The acquisition of Smart Shirts will

give Youngor Group a larger retail network overseas and bring extra annual sales revenue of $360

million, including $12 million in net profit, the Chinese firm was quoted by the 21st Century Business

Herald as saying.” (People’s Daily) By 2011, Smart Shirts merged with Sunrise Textile Group under

Youngor, to form a stronger, leaner and more productive company. "By becoming one larger

organization instead of two related operating groups, we will become a stronger, more powerful

competitor in the international marketplace. The new group will be one of the largest textile and apparel

companies in the world that is truly vertical and global, from cotton farming in XinJiang to the marketing

and distribution of garments in the United States.”(Marketwired) The new merger will bring an annual of

$5 billion in sales to Youngor.

In 2008, WuXi Pharmatech announced that it will be purchasing Minnesota based Apptec

Laboratory Services. This acquisition allowed WuXi to gain an immediate entry to the US market.

Apptec specializes in cell therapy bioproduction. WuXi is the leading Chinese based pharmaceutical and

biotechnology research and development. In 2008 WuXi had a market capitalization of $1.8 billion.

WuXi acquired Apptec for $151 million, its most valuable contribution, easy entry to the US market.

By 2007, Datascope had a total revenue of $161.3 million, Datascope’s patient monitoring

system. Mindray Medical International Limited entered into an agreement to acquired Datascope’s

monitoring system, placing them as the third largest international provider of patient monitoring system.

One of the strongest assets is that Mindray will acquire os the strong brand and reputation for its high

Bolivar 24

quality products and services. Mindray will also benefit from the established direct sales and services

channels of Datascope has in the US and Europe. Datascope was acquired for a total of $209 million

in March 2008. Mindray plans to continue its manufacturing in the US and continue its research and

development investment in the US.

By 2008, the CIC (China Investment Corporation) had made a number of investments in the

US that had not provided positive returns. "Because of the subprime crisis, the value of financial assets

in the United States has fallen to a more reasonable range, which creates a fairly good opportunity for

China to invest," said Li Ruogu, president of Export­Import Bank of China. (Reuters) In an article to be

published in the International Economic Review, a Beijing academic journal, Li said China urgently

needed to invest abroad to diversify its huge foreign exchange reserves, which exceeded $1.6 trillion at

the end of February.

CIC, which separately manages $200 billion, invested more than $100 million in Visa's initial

public offering. China Life insurance then invested $260m million in Visa, raiding the IPO to $17.9

billion, the largest in that time. This was a different contrast from the losses that the CIC had of $3 billion

in the Blackstone. If Chinese regulators had approved the planned $1 billion investment in Bearn

Stearns in December of 2007. The CBD also had a investment that was not approved, failing to have

to go ahead to invest in Citigroup. "I think it's important to remind you that Chinese companies need to

be more cautious and more careful (in investing abroad), because we really have no experience in this

field," stated Guo Shuqing, Chairman of China Construction Bank. Chinese professor in Tsinghua

University stated that due to the financial crisis, Western governments are more welcoming to foreign

investments. "We should invest for influence and for the right to know, not for short­term financial

gains," Li stated, a member of China's top political advisory body. Due to the lack of expertise and the

Bolivar 25

bureaucracy when green lighting and investment, Frank Gong, chief China economist at JP Morgan, “the

danger is that Beijing, in a futile attempt to time the market and thus minimize potential losses, will drag

its heels in approving planned investments.” "The risk definitely is that Chinese policy makers will move

too slow and China will miss out this once­in­a century opportunity," Gong told reporters. (Reuters)

The CIC moves to invest in J.C Flowers a firm started by a former Goldman Sachs’ executive.

This fund would invest in US financial assets. The CIC will become a limited partner in the fund, having

an 80% stake. This is the first private equity fund that the CIC will be investing, continuing the plan set

forth by Beijing to diversify. This also makes J.C. Flowers the first private equity firm that is managing

funds from the CIC. The CIC also request a more riskier approach for J.C. Flowers. Private equity

funds are easily asked to invest one or two percent in the funds, but the CIC requested to for J.C.

Flowers to be more bullish and invest ten percent. The CIC continue its investment in firms, including

Blackstone, Morgan Stanley, Blackrock, Oak Tree Capital, and Morgan Stanley.

The CIC invests in AES, part of their .energy business. The CIS will acquire 15% of equity at

AES, and will be able to nominate a director. CIC invested $1.58 billion for that stake. AES has nine

distributions around the world, with more than 11 million customers; its energy includes: biomass, diesel,

gas, hydro and oil. For the first time in the history of the US, a Chinese company has a stake in an

American energy development. The National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) was able to acquire

some of the leases from the Norwegian Statoil. Statoil is a major player in the Gulf of Mexico, as it has

acquired many leases in the last past years from the US government. Usually when it comes time to

develop, the holder of the lease offers partnership opportunities in order to hedge the risk. CNOOC

was able to outbid other bidders. This marks a significant move forward in the entry of the US market, a

few years before CNOOC had lost a bid for Unocal.

Bolivar 26

By the end of 2011, China’s outward investment fell from $23.4 billion to $16.3 billion. In

between 2009 and 2011, US energy companies have lure Chinese companies to invest and become

partner with them, including CNOOC, PetroChina and Sinopec. Chinese companies have become

smarter regarding their partnerships and investments. Windows of opportunity due open, opportunities

which benefit both partners in this case Chesapeake and Sinopec. As Sinopec looks to increase its

global competitiveness, refining and distribution. After learning from the Unocal experience, Sinopec is

strategically moving towards acquiring assets, but not complete ownership.

Conclusion

Journalist Xu Zhijun had it right when he posted that picture of a clean plate on Weibo. China's

dragon economy is definitely changing the way many Chinese consumers behave and consume. It is

also opening new windows of opportunity to many Chinese businesses, as they seek better way to

better serve the needs and wants of the increasing number of consumers at home. China’s “Going Out

Policy” can simply be described as an strategic move of market penetration for Chinese investment in

the US. At the federal level of the US government, the main concerns regarding this investment is

whether or not the national economy and national security is at risk. This notion is valuable as recent

reports regarding the increase number of cases regarding Chinese espionage in the US. Overall, Chinese

investment brings more benefits directly to local economies. Chinese investment has been able to

re­launched many dying brands, created new jobs and has helped provided better products and

developments to the consumer. These investments are being fueled by the savings of the Chinese

people. These savings are fuelling the CIC and the loans for abroad investment for Chinese companies.

If the continuum continues, meaning that the Chinese consumer continues to save (this can be in the

short run, as it is not feasible for the long run), there will be enough funds for continuing investment

Bolivar 27

abroad. China will continue to follow its strategic vision and as long as there is opportunity in the US to

invest, the investment will be welcomed with open arms.

Investment will create new jobs, open new factories, outsource a number of sales channels to

the US and rescue many business divisions of large corporations, which have failed in the competitive

market.

Data Review

Bolivar 28

Bolivar 29

Bolivar 30

Bibliography US­China Venture Capital Partnerships China Business Review, December 2012 Tharon Smith The Political Economy of US­China Trade and Investment: The Role of the China Investment Corporation Competition and Change, Vol. 15 No. 2, July 2011 Gordon L Clark & Ashby H B Monk Economic and strategic considerations surrounding Chinese FDI in the United States Asia Pacific Journal of Management, 2009 Steven Globerman & Daniel Shapiro Dos and Don’ts for Chinese Companies Investing in the United States: Lessons From Huawei and Haier Thunderbird International Business Review, July 2011 Friedrich Wu Lim Siok Hoon & Zhang Yuzhu An American Open Door Policy? Maximizing the Benefits of Chinese Foreign Direct Investment Asia Society, May 2011 Daniel h. Rosen & Thilo Hanemann Going Out: An Overview of China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment U.S.­China Economic & Security Review Commission, March 2011 Nargiza Salidjanova & Policy Analyst for Economic and Trade Issues China’s outward investments Challenges and Opportunities for the EU BICCS Policy Paper Duncan Freeman

Bolivar 31

China’s Investment in the United States National Initiatives, Corporate Goals, and Public Opinion Center for Strategic & International Studies, November 201 Charles W. freeman III & Wen Jun Yuan Investing in the United States: A Guide for Chinese Companies KPMG, October 2010 komg.com Sinopec: Chesapeake’s Salvation Forbes, 2012 Matthew Hulbert forbes.com Statoil Sells U.S. Oil Interest to Chinese Company DealBook, NY Times, November 2009 Cyrus Sanati dealbook.nytimes.com China Investment Corporation Invests in AES Corporation SWF Institute November, 2009 swfinstitute.org Mindray to Acquire Datascope’s Patient Monitoring Business for US$202 million PR Newswire, March 2011 prnewswire.com Chinese CRO WuXi Pharmatech Acquires Apptec Laboratory Services The Regeneration Station, January 2008 regeneration­station.com Merger Announced for Smart Shirts Ltd and Sunrise Textile Group ­­ Two Hong Kong Based Subsidiaries of the Youngor Group (SSE: 600177) Market Wired, May 2011 marketwired.com China Minsheng To Buy Into U.S. Bank

Bolivar 32

Forbes, October 2010 Shu­Ching Jean Chen forbes.com Let’s attract more Chinese investment Charlotte Business Journal, May 2013 Charles Lansden bizjournals.com Foreign Investment into China:Where’s the Money Flowing? Bloomberg Businessweek, November 2013 Dexter Roberts businessweek.com BGI is building a huge genome database to drive drug discovery FierceBiotechIT, December 2013 Nick Paul Taylor fiercebiotechit.com Sales of Chesapeake Energy assets costing the company millions Wichita Business Journal, December 2013 Josh Heck bizjournals.com Developers urged to localise when going overseas South China Morning Post, January 2014 Langi Chiang scmp.com Smithfield posts $4.2M loss after Shuanhui merger Porknetwork, December 2013 Angela Browman porknetwrok.com Wright Signs Lease for East Memphis Headquarters The Daily News, January 2014 Amos Maki memphisdailynews.com

Bolivar 33

China Minsheng to Buy UCBH Stake in Landmark Deal The Wall Street Journal, October 2007 Rose Yu online.wsj.com Sinopec, Syntroleum sign GTL, CTL pact Oil & Gas Journal, February 2007 Eric Watkins ogj.com China’s Lenovo acquires IBM division Associated Press, May 2005 nbcnews.com Chinese investment a growing trend in Wisconsin, nationally Milwaukee Wisconsin Journal Sentinel, October 2013 John Schmid jsonline.com U.S. Becoming A Chinese Investment Magnet China US Focus, October 2013 Tom Watkins chinausfocus.com China’s Steady Global Investment: American Choices Heritage Foundation, July 2013 Derek Scissors, Pd.D. heritage.org China’s Massive Foreign Investment, In One Map The Bulletin, October 2013 Tyler Falk smartplanet.com China’s Global Investment Rises: The U.S. Should Focus on Competition Heritage Foundation, January 2013 Derek Scissors, Pd.D. heritage.org

Bolivar 34

Chinese Investment in the U.S.: Outbound Funds Expand in Reach, Size Bloomberg Law, September 2013 Mark Greenfield & Karen Corliss bna.com Fostering Greater Chinese Investment in the United States Policy Innovation Memorandum No. 13, Council on Foreign Relations, February 2012 David M. Marchick cfr.org U.S. Chamber Releases Report on Chinese Investment in U.S. Infrastructure U.S. Chamber of Commerce, October 2013 uschamber.com Public­Private Partnerships Is New Model For State To Attract Business, Encourage Exports The Hamner Institutes for Health Sciences Erin Smith thehamner.org Give Me You Yuan: Chinese Are Eager for U.S. Assets Bloomberg Businessweek, August 2013 Peter Coy businessweek.com China’s middle­class boom CNN Money, June 2012 Annalyn Cemsky money.cnn.com How to Implement the “Going Out” Strategy CaixinOnline, January 2013 Yi Gang english.caixin.com SOEs Declining Role in China’s Foreign Investment

Bolivar 35

The Diplomat, July 2013 Eve Cary thediplomat.com China Investment Monitor Rhodium Group, 2014 rhg.com