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ESA 2015: 12th Conference of the European Sociological Associatiaon 2015Differences, Inequalities and Sociological ImaginationPrague, 25th - 28 August 2015
Croatian youth and populism: the mixed methods analysis of the populism ‘breeding
ground’ among the youth in Zagreb
Institute of Social Sciences ‘Ivo Pilar’, CroatiaAugustin Derado
Vanja Dergić
MYPLACE
A demand-side analysis of Croatian youth and populism
• Aim: To explore the inclinations to populism among the young people in Croatia and to understand their sources
• Demand-side analysis: which people constitute the potential electorate of populist parties and why?
• Mixed methodology research:
• 1216 surveys representative for youth in two regions in the city of Zagreb, Croatian capital
• 61 semi-structured interviews• Age group of youth 16 – 25 years old
Populism and democracy
• Populism: political ideology which rests upon three core concepts – the ‘good people’, the ‘bad elite’ and the ‘general will’ (Mudde, 2004)
• Populists try to construct a vision of society as separated into two homogeneous and antagonistic groups and argue that politics should be a direct expression of the general will of the people (Zaslove, 2008; Meny and Surel, 2002; Albertazzi and McDonnell, 2008)
• Dualistic political system: ‘us’ vs. ‘they'
• Populism – a reaction to a social, political and economic crisis, a ‘mirror of democracy’ (Panizza, 2005)
Populism and democracy
• Dependent on the political and cultural context: populism comes in combination with other ideologies like nationalism, xenophobia, anti-austerity, radical egalitarianism etc. (Mudde and Kaltwasser, 2013)
• Right-wing populists usually mobilise on grievances over ethnicity and immigration, and combine populism with radical nationalism and authoritarianism (Ivarflatsen, 2007; Rydgren, 2007)
• Left-wing populism predominantly has a socio-economic dimension and combines populism with anti-neoliberalism, anti-austerity or radical egalitarism (March and Mudde, 2005; March, 2012)
Populism and democracy
• Populism ignores the tension between the ideology of democracy - the ‘power of the people’ and its practical modern application - the power of administrations and political elites (Canovan, 2002; Meny and Surel, 2002; Mudde, 2007; Mouffe, 2005)
• Populist leaders try to present themselves as having a direct link to the ‘people’, a connection which enables them to represent the ‘general will’ in a manner which is somewhat bypassing the representative democratic process (Panizza, 2005; Arditi, 2005)
Populism in Croatia
• The authoritarian socialist legacy, the war after the breakup of Yugoslavia, the semi-democratic legacy and the rise of ethno-nationalism can make preconditions for populists
• Lack of populist political parties in Croatia, only a few populist figures (Grbeša and Šalaj, 2014)
• Supply side explanations: European Union as a powerful external factor for democratisation and liberalisation, both political and economic (Mudde, 2002; Merkel, 2004; Dolenec, 2012)
Political parties
Parliament
The head of government (PM)
The media (national press and TV)
Religious institutions
Banks
The courts
The European Commission
The police
Amnesty International
The United Nations
Greenpeace
The army
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Context: mean trust in institutions
‘Politicians are corrupt’
73,8%
20,4%
5,2%agree and strongly agreeneither agree or disagreedisagree and strongly disagree
11%
31%
55%
agree and strongly agree
neither agree or disagree
disagree and strongly disagree
‘Politicians are interested in young people like me’
Context: opinions about politicians
Context: political participation
• ‘How effectively, do you think, the following actions can influence politics in this country?’
- voting in elections as a way of influencing politics (average value around 5 on a scale 0-10) - working in civil society organisations and associations, signing petitions (average values between 4.54 and 4.89) - participation in public demonstrations, being active in a political party (average values between 3.80 and 4.40).
Qualitative analysis
• Searching for the attitudes among youth which correspond to three core concepts of populism (the ‘bad’ and corrupted elite, the ‘good people’ and the ‘general will’)
• Trying to understand which main radical ideologies can blend with populism in Croatia
• Exploring the issue of strong leaders
Qualitative analysis: ‘bad elite’
• The perspective that the political elite is ‘all the same’, corrupted and ‘bad’ was very frequent among our respondents and quite strong
When you dig below the surface you realise it all sums up to same. That’s all the same [makes the ‘beep!’ sound of media censorship for language]! (Astra)
During those general election campaigns they promise everything, they ‘promise the moon’, and when they are elected and gain power, all those issues which they promised to solve, they forget them. (Majda)
…politicians, which are not doing anything, they have high salaries, they are corrupted, they steal from the people - from the people, from the state, they haven’t done anything good… (Didi)
Qualitative analysis: the ‘good people’ and the ‘general will’
• Many of our respondents held that the people should have more influence on politics - people as good or righteous political actors whose will should be listened
Maybe democracy should function better, the people should be consulted more often and the people should be followed [obeyed, listened to] more. In fact, the politicians should be those who fulfill the wishes of the people, and not the other way around. (Ivan)
They [the politicians] decide about all, the people should be asked more often… (…) they don’t ask us anything… only when we need to vote… (Mirkec)
Qualitative analysis: supporting ideologies
• The main radical ideologies which can blend with populism in Croatia are nationalism and radical egalitarianism/anti-austerity ideology
There clearly is a ground for extreme parties to operate. It means, the people are easily captivated by the nationalistic enthusiasm here and if the situation ˙[with unemployment] would become any worse (…) I think that there is a possibility, yes. (Branimir)
My parents always say, as they also did before, that before privatisation everything was better, that more attention [or even care] was paid on the workers, that capitalism is really slavery now, that they are being destroyed. (Arijana)
Qualitative analysis: the ‘strong leader issue’
• Few of our 61 interviewees spoke about a desire for leadership from a ‘strong leader’which would ‘end the arguing’and ‘help the people’
To be sincere, I think that in order to bring this state in order, I think that we need some kind of a (…) a regime where one person is in power (…) I think that that person should be extremely well educate, with PhDs from several universities. First that and then – that person needs to be charismatic (…) doesn’t need to be a 100% Croat, but at least one of his parents should be Croatian (Barbara).
Quantitative analysis: choosing a criterion variable for the regression
• Proxy variable: attitude whether a political system with a strong leader who is not constrained by parliament would be good for Croatia
• A small majority of our respondents expressed a positive opinion: responses fairly or very good - 55%
• Preference for a strong leader can point out to elitist or authoritarian types of rule, but our qualitative findings point to populism
• Authoritarianism is one of the core features of radical right populist ideology (Mudde, 2007). Populist leaders usually try to hide their (to some degree) authoritarian leadership strategies under the idea of the 'will of the people
Quantitative analysis: results
Strong leader preference B SE (b) β p
Politicians corruption .24 .06 .17 **
Justification of violence for political purposes .02 .01 .13 **
Satisfaction with democracy in Croatia -.04 .02 -.08 *
Left-right political ideology .05 .02 .09 *
Role of religion in politics .10 .04 .09 *
Attitudes towards minority groups -.03 .01 -.08 *
Interest in politics -.07 .05 -.05
Level of political knowledge -.05 .06 -.03
R² = .12 ** p<.01 * p<.05
Quantitative analysis: results
• Attitudes towards politicians’ corruption- anti-elite and anti-systemic attitude
• Justification of violence - possible indicator of authoritarianism which is regarded as a very important attitudinal variable in explaining populist voting (Mudde, - protests to persuade the elites to work in the interest of the people and to change the system which creates great inequalities 2004; Flecker et al., 2004)
• Slight right-wing skew on the ideological spectrum of youth who are more inclined to support strong leaders.
Conclusions
• Youth in Croatia are alienated from the political elites and the political system
• A ‘breeding ground’ for populism exists among Croatian youth
• A part of the youth appears as willing to consider significant changes to give them hope for better political leadership and a better life
• But: a fertile breeding ground is a necessary and not a sufficient condition (Van der Brug et al. 2005)
