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Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1664030 “Does the Type of Federalism Make a Difference for Electoral Behavior? Comparing Spain and Germany” Kerstin Hamann [email protected] and Philip H. Pollock [email protected] Department of Political Science University of Central Florida Orlando, FL 32816-1356 Phone: 407-823-2608 Prepared for delivery at the American Political Science Association Meeting, Washington D.C., 2010. This is work in progress and comments and suggestions are welcome. We would like to thank Donald Plungis for valuable research assistance.

Does the Type of Federalism Make a Difference for Electoral Behavior? Comparing Spain and Germany

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Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1664030

“Does the Type of Federalism Make a Difference for Electoral Behavior?

Comparing Spain and Germany”

Kerstin Hamann

[email protected]

and

Philip H. Pollock

[email protected]

Department of Political Science

University of Central Florida

Orlando, FL 32816-1356

Phone: 407-823-2608

Prepared for delivery at the American Political Science Association Meeting, Washington D.C.,

2010. This is work in progress and comments and suggestions are welcome. We would like to

thank Donald Plungis for valuable research assistance.

Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1664030

1

Abstract

In multi-level systems, voters have several opportunities to cast their ballots. This paper focuses

on the relationship between electoral behavior at the regional and state levels. The paper assesses

the ramifications of the way in which state-level and regional-level elections are linked for

electoral behavior analyzing the cases of Germany and Spain. In Germany, regional (Länder)

level elections are directly linked to state-level policy making as the parties composing the

Länder governments constitute the upper house (Bundesrat), which has considerable policy-

making powers. Thus, regional elections are more than just “second-order” elections, but have

direct and explicit ramifications for state-level governance. In contrast, Spain lacks a powerful

upper house representing the regional governments; regional-level elections are thus of less

immediate consequence for state-level governance. This paper explores whether these

institutional differences are reflected in voting behavior. In particular, the paper analyzes

whether differences in electoral turnout in regional and statewide elections exist across the two

cases. We hypothesize that given the higher significance of regional elections for state-level

policymaking in Germany, voter turnout at regional-level elections should be more closely

linked to voter turnout in statewide elections compared to Spain, where regional elections are of

less import for state-level politics than in Germany. Our initial findings confirm this hypothesis.

2

I. Introduction

Multi-level governance in Europe affords voters opportunities for electoral participation at

different levels of government. Voters can cast their ballots in elections at the state level, but also

at the suprastate level (EU) and substate levels (regional and local). The literature has established

that these elections, though taking place in different arenas, are also connected as voters

oftentimes use suprastate or substate elections to send signals to the state-level government and

parties. Thus, the nexus between different levels of government is complex, and consequently,

electoral behavior is similarly complex.

In this paper, we explore one aspect of the links between different levels of electoral

behavior. We provide a preliminary and tentative analysis of the links between voter turnout in

statewide and regional elections. This study is motivated by the fact that the electoral

significance of regional elections varies across countries depending on the relevance regional

elections have for politics at the state level. This institutional analysis probes differences in

federalist structures to gain insights into electoral behavior at the substate level.

We pursue these questions for two cases, Germany and Spain. While both cases have

institutions of multi-level governance, they differ in the types of federalist institutions. We are

interested in finding out whether these institutional differences are reflected in electoral

behavior, in particular the relationship between turnout in elections at the state and regional

level.

The paper proceeds as follows: The next section describes federalist institutions in Spain

and Germany, which forms the basis for our hypothesis. The third section briefly outlines

differences in regional elections for our two cases. We then proceed to present our data and

exploratory analysis. The Conclusion points to directions for further research.

3

II. Federalist Institutions in Spain and Germany

Spain and Germany show marked differences in the way their multi-level systems are set up.

These differences are perhaps most conspicuous in the fact that Germany’s federal system grants

the regions, or Länder, signficiant influence on state-level policymaking through the upper house

of parliament, the Bundesrat. Spain, on the other hand, has what is sometimes referred to as a

quasi-federalist system, in which the regions—the autonomous communities—have no such

representation at the state level. This section briefly describes these differences in the

institutional setup of multi-level governance in Spain and Germany.

Quasi-Federalism in Spain

Spain has a long history of regional differences and calls for autonomy. While a few regions

gained their autonomy statutes during the Second Republic established in 1931, these rights were

soon buried when the Franco dictatorship took over in 1939 and refused to recognize regional

differences. However, while this policy perhaps succeeded in masking existing differences and

tensions, it failed to suppress them. As the Basque terrorist organization ETA illustrated vividly,

regional identities stayed alive and were politicized despite the official politics that ignored their

existence. Not until Spain redemocratized after Franco’s death in December 1975 were conflicts

and cleavages along regional lines officially acknowledged and reflected in the territorial

organization of the state. The Spanish Constitution, ratified in 1979, provides for the existence of

regions, but left the details of the establishment of the regions open to legislation.

In practice, this meant that in the early years of the democracy, 17 regions or

“autonomous communities” were established. Since then, Spain has undergone an extensive

4

process of decentralization together with territorial pluralism, resulting in what Colomer (1999)

calls “non-institutional federalism.” Regions gained autonomy via different routes. The “historic

nationalities” of Catalonia and the Basque Country gained autonomy in 1979; the “historic

region” of Galicia and also Andalucía followed in 1981; three more regions obtained an

intermediate status or gained special rights, and the remaining 10 regions were granted autonomy

via the “normal” or “slow” path, completing the process of setting up autonomous regions in

February of 1983 (see Hamann and Mershon 2008: 117). Each region holds elections to a

unicameral regional parliament, which in turn elects a regional “president” to head the executive.

Regional elections are generally scheduled every four years though not all regions vote at the

same time: the first four regions to gain autonomy vote on separate dates, while the remaining 13

regions hold elections simultaneously at fixed four-year intervals and concurrent with local

elections. All regions use a proportional representation system though some differences exist

concerning thresholds, definition of the unit constituting the electoral district, and mean district

magnitude (see Colomer 1999; Hamann and Mershon 2008: 116).

Perhaps most importantly, Spanish regions lack representation at the state level. Spain

has a bicameral legislature. The lower house, the Congress of Deputies, is elected at regular

intervals that cannot exceed four years. The upper house, the Senate, was established in the 1979

Constitution as a chamber of territorial representation, but in practice only about one-fifth of the

senators directly represent their regions. Furthermore, the Senate is a weak institution and has

few powers to influence legislation (see Field and Hamann 2008: 16-17). Regional governments

mostly exert influence on statewide politics through bilateral negotiations with the statewide

government, especially in cases where a minority government is dependent on legislative support

5

from regional parties (see Heller 2002). Spain is thus a highly decentralized country yet lacks

territorial representation of the regions at the level of the state.

Federalism in Germany

Germany has a federalist system developed after the end of World War II. Some states were

drawn based on historical regions, others were newly created, and the Saarland was the last state

to join in 1957 after having been under French administration. Until unification with East

Germany occurred in 1990, the Federal Republic was comprised of 10 states, or Länder, plus

Berlin; unification added five new states for a total of 16. Much like in Spain, each state has its

own unicameral parliament, headed by a premier (Ministerpräsident). Elections in each state also

take place roughly every four years although they are staggered and do not coincide to the extent

that 13 of the 17 Spanish regions vote together in regional elections. German states also use a

proportional representation system.

Similar to Spain, Germany also features a bicameral legislature where elections to the

lower house, the Bundestag, take place no more than four years apart. Perhaps the most

important difference to the Spanish system is that the German Länder are represented in the

powerful upper house of the German parliament, the Bundesrat, and the “federal states

participate through the Bundesrat in the legislation and administration of the Federation.”1 The

Bundesrat is composed of 69 members, which are allocated to the states roughly proportionate to

their population size. No state has fewer than three seats and the largest states have six seats. The

states fill their seats to represent their governments, meaning that the overall seat distribution

reflects the party composition of the state governments. Members must be government members

11

This quote is on the homepage of the German Bundesrat

(http://www.bundesrat.de/EN/Home/homepage__node.html).

6

at the state level. Each state casts a bloc vote in Bundesrat votes, regardless of the party

affiliation of the individual members (coalition governments are common in German Länder).

Bundesrat members thus represent their state rather than their political party.

The fact that the states have direct representation in the Bundesrat is of significance

especially given the importance of the upper house for state policy making. The Bundesrat has

extensive policy-making powers, possessing veto power for about half of all bills and suspensive

veto power for all other bills (Lohmann et al. 1997: 426; Patzelt 1999: 61).2 This means that the

composition of the Bundesrat is crucial for the policy-making process as the lower house, the

Bundestag, is dependent on approval by the upper house for a large part of its legislation.

Therefore, elections for state governments have obvious and significant implications for the

policy-making process at the state level. To quote the Bundesrat homepage concerning the

significance of elections at the state level: “This means that state elections always have

nationwide political significance too. Even in the Fifties there was a saying ‘Your election in the

state of Hesse counts in the Bundesrat in Bonn.’”3 Voters are thus keenly aware that their vote

can have ramifications beyond the composition of the next government in the Land they reside

in.

This is in stark contrast to Spain, where no direct connections between regional elections

and state-level representation exists. Certainly, regional governments matter as they are

important conduits in facilitating the formation of state-level support coalitions for the

government, especially when the government rules as a minority executive (see Field 2009), but

2 If the Bundesrat casts a suspensive veto, the Bundestag can either amend the bill until the Bundesrat accepts it, or it

can overrule the veto if the entire Bundestag votes for the bill (Silvia1999: 173). 3 Bundesrat homepage (http://www.bundesrat.de/cln_152/nn_11006/EN/organisation-en/plenum-en/plenum-en-

inhalt.html?__nnn=true).

7

the results of regional elections cannot formally and directly help or hinder state-level

policymaking. These differences may affect electoral behavior.

III. Regional Elections in Spain and Germany

Given the institutional differences concerning the structure of the significance of regional

elections for state-level politics between Spain and Germany, we are curious whether, and how,

electoral behavior is affected. In particular, we are interested in turnout patterns for regional and

statewide elections in Spain and Germany. The literature has established that by and large,

turnout levels for state-level elections tend to be higher than for suprastate or substate elections

(see Hough and Jeffery 2006a: 8). This pattern also holds true for Spain and Germany, where,

aside from a few exceptions, more voters tend to go to the polls in elections for the lower house

of the state parliament compared to elections for regional legislatures. However, here we probe

further into the relationship between turnout at the state and regional levels based on the

institutional differences in federalism we have observed in our two cases.

One argument in the literature suggests that turnout in regional elections tends to be

lower because these elections constitute “second-order” elections, of less relevance to state-level

policymaking than state-level, or “first-order,” elections. Pallarés and Keating (2006: 104), for

example, state for the Spanish case that the abstention level for regional elections is on average

“above that for state elections … consistent with the second order notion.” For the German case,

Hough and Jeffery (2006b) discuss evidence for the interpretation of Land elections as second-

order elections particularly for the pre-unification era, though perhaps the logic holds less so

since 1990. Generally, voters cast their vote in second-order elections based on state-level issues

and government performance rather than based on issues that are of particular relevance at the

8

subnational or supranational level. Thus, second-order elections sometimes take on the character

of “barometer” elections for the state-level government (Anderson and Ward 1996).

At the same time, given the difference in the amount that is at stake for voters in different

types of second-order elections, “Some second order elections are more second order than

others” (McLean et al. 1996:4, cited in Hough and Jeffery 2006a: 9). While this differentiation

was aimed at different types of second-order elections—specifically, elections to the European

Parliament compared to local elections—we can draw a similar argument for differences in the

amount that is at stake for voters in regional elections: not all regional elections are the same,

depending on the importance regional elections have for state-level government. In Germany,

regional elections are of considerably higher relevance for state-level politics than in Spain—

regional elections in Germany determine the composition of the Bundesrat, which in turn plays

an important role in state-level policymaking. In Spain, in contrast, the composition of regional

governments is of much less direct impact for state-level policymaking as the regions have no

direct representation in a powerful upper house.

Do these differences affect patterns in voter turnout between regional and state-level

elections? We expect that the relationship between turnout at regional and state elections will be

stronger in Germany than in Spain as regional elections have a more direct significance for state-

level policymaking in Germany. In Spain, where regional elections have no state-level

component, the factors that affect regional turnouts should be different from the factors that

affect state-level turnouts. Thus, we should find that regional and state elections are distinct,

weakly correlated electoral events. In Germany, where regional elections have a significant state-

level component, many of the same factors that affect state-level turnout will also be present in

regional elections. Therefore, we should find that regional and state elections are strongly

9

correlated electoral events. Note that we are not interested in explaining voter turnout or

abstention at the regional level per se. The literature on voter turnout is large and cites

individual-level factors as well as institutional factors to account for differences in electoral

participation within and across countries. However, we are not interested in here in explaining

why some regions have higher or lower turnout level than others, or why turnout differ between

Germany and Spain. Instead, we are interested in analyzing the linkages between turnout in

elections at the regional and state level. We now turn to a preliminary exploration of this

question.

IV. Data and Exploratory Analysis

We compiled, for Spain and Germany, turnout data in state and regional elections, 1982-2008 for

Spain and 1980-2009 for Germany. (See Data Sources.) This spans all regional elections in Spain

since the restoration of democracy in the late 1970s until 2008 and all regional elections in

Germany for the equivalent time frame. We excluded cases where the regional elections and

state-level elections coincided, e.g. Andalucía held simultaneous elections for the regional

parliament and the state-level Congress in 1996, 2000, 2004, and 2008; in Germany,

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern held simultaneous elections to the Land parliament and the

Bundestag in 1994, 1998, and 2002. We exclude these cases because simultaneous elections do

not permit us to distinguish between the effects of state-level and of regional-level forces on

voter turnout. We are not interested in explaining voter turnout at different levels as such, but

rather in the relationship between turnout at the state level and at the regional level. Furthermore,

we exclude Berlin prior to 1990 because deputies from Berlin had no voting rights in the

10

Bundesrat or the Bundestag due to the special status of the city prior to unification. Thus, the

elections for Berlin prior to 1990 are not comparable to the other cases.

These data allowed us to determine, for each state election, turnouts in the preceding—

and the succeeding—regional election for each region. For example, in the Spanish region

Andalucía, turnout was 76.2 percent in the 1993 state election. In the preceding regional election,

turnout was 55.30 percent, and in the succeeding regional election it was 67.3 percent. In

Germany’s Baden-Württemberg, state-level turnout was 79.7 in 1994, preceded and followed by

regional turnouts of 70.1 and 67.6, respectively. If the state-regional electoral link is weak, we

should find that state turnout rates bear little relationship to regional rates in preceding or

succeeding elections. For instance, a higher-than-usual state turnout may be followed by a high

regional turnout or a low regional turnout—depending on what region-level factors are present in

the regional election. If the state-regional link is strong, then higher turnouts in state elections

should also occasion higher succeeding regional turnouts, and lower state turnouts should be

followed by lower regional turnouts. We hypothesize that the same factors that occasion higher

(or lower) state turnouts should also translate into higher (or lower) regional turnouts. We

explore these ideas graphically, first presenting disaggregated data on each region, then showing

patterns in the data aggregated by region.

Figure 1 presents the disaggregated data for Spain. To accommodate data from all 17

regions, Figure 1 has six panels, five showing turnout statistics for three regions and one

displaying data for two regions. Each set of axes has state turnout on the horizontal axis and

succeeding regional turnout on the vertical. Are we able to discern a relationship within regions?

As state turnouts move, do regional turnouts follow? Consider the upper-left panel, which

displays scatterplots for Andalucía, Aragón, and Canarias. State turnouts in Canarias vary

11

markedly, from about 60 percent to nearly 80 percent. Yet succeeding regional turnouts change

very little, staying in the 60-65 percent range. Aragón posts higher means on both axes but shows

a similarly weak state-regional connection. The data for Andalucía are somewhat more

systematic—as state turnouts go up, regional turnouts increase—save for a large inconsistency at

about 70 percent on the horizontal axis. Perusing the panels, we can see the different varieties of

non-relationship. For example, the scatters in the right-hand panel of the middle row show

variable state turnouts and stable regional turnouts (Galicia), stable state-variable regional

(Valenciana), or variable state-variable regional (Extremadura).

[Figure 1 about here]

Table 1 presents a regression analysis that has succeeding regional turnout as the

dependent variable and uses state turnout and a series of regional dummies as independents.

Eight regions are significantly different from the base category (Andalucía)—three have higher

turnouts, on average, and five have lower turnouts. But the effect of state turnout (b = .05, sig. =

.66) is statistically indistinguishable from zero. This is seen, as well, in the aggregated data,

created by collapsing the mean values of state turnout, succeeding regional turnout, and

preceding regional turnout. The top panel of Figure 2 shows the correlational scatter of state

turnout (horizontal axis) and succeeding regional turnout (vertical axis). The bottom panel

displays the scatter for preceding regional turnout (horizontal axis) and state turnout (vertical

axis). To be sure, the data are not without coherence. However, the linkages appear weak,

particularly in the lower ranges of turnout. The weight of the analysis suggests that regional

turnouts in Spain vary for any number of reasons, but state-level turnout does not appear to be

among those reasons.

[Table 1 about here]

12

[Figure 2 about here]

Figure 3 displays the disaggregated data for Germany. Again we can ask whether

variations in state turnout are related to variations in regional turnout. Are movements from left

to right along the horizontal axis associated with lower-to-higher movements along the vertical?

For many regions, the answer is clearly yes. The regions in the upper-right panel (Bremen,

Hamburg, and Hessen) and those in the left-hand panel in the middle row (Niedersachsen,

Nordrhein-Westfalen, and Rheinland-Pfalz) provide the strongest evidence. In all of these

cases, as state turnouts wax and wane, so do succeeding regional turnouts. Note also that these

regions (unlike the Spanish regions) do not group themselves in regionally distinct positions

along either axis. Rather, the regions mix together in a pattern suggesting that supra-regional

factors are more important is structuring turnout. Of course, not all of the regional data are as

well behaved. Two of the regions in the upper-left panel (Baden-Württemberg and Bayern)

show the expected relationship, although not as convincingly as the six regions discussed

above. Furthermore, we visually separated out the five new regions in Germany, joining the 11

“old” ones (including Berlin) after unification in 1990, since electoral behavior might well be

different in the new Länder, where democratic procedures were much less institutionalized and

familiarity with the consequences of regional voting perhaps less well known than in the 11

“old” regions. In fact, the new Länder, which show in the two panels along the bottom row of

Figure 3, appear not to follow the expected pattern. However, these regions’ comparatively low

turnouts—combined with our decision to use the same axis scales for all the scatters—may

obscure a more systematic relationship.

[Figure 3 about here]

13

A clearer picture emerges from the regression analysis, which (as with Spain) models

succeeding regional turnout as a function of state turnout and region-specific mean differences,

measured by dummy variables. Table 2 shows the results. These estimates stand in stark

contrast to the analysis of the Spanish microdata. Aside from two region-specific effects—a

sizable adjustment for Saarland (7.39 points) and a gargantuan adjustment for Mecklenburg-

Vorpommern (13.40 points)—none of the regional coefficients is significant. However, the

coefficient on state turnout is highly significant (b = 1.11, sig. = .00). Thus, state-level factors

are emergent while region-specific factors are muted. The aggregated correlational data (Figure

4) clarify the contrast with Spain. The process of aggregation has removed much interesting

variation, but it has also revealed relationships that were difficult to see in the disaggregated

data, particularly with regard to Germany’s new regions. They in the aggregate resemble the

pattern of the “old” regions in Germany much more closely, although at a considerably lower

turnout level overall, while at the microlevel reveal a much more distinct picture. Mecklenburg-

Vorpommern clearly constitutes an outlier, which will need to be examined more closely.

[Table 2 about here]

[Figure 4 about here]

V. Conclusions

The research question underlying this paper was based on the idea that voting behavior is

influenced by institutional factors. More specifically, we examined whether the institutional

differences of different types of federalisms are reflected in patterns of voter turnout. Our

analysis demonstrates that voter turnout patterns between regional and state elections are not the

same across countries with multi-level governance. The cases of Spain and Germany suggest that

14

where regional elections have a direct and important influence on state-level policymaking, as in

Germany, turnout in regional elections tends to be much closer correlated to turnout in state

election than in cases where regional elections lack such import. Subnational elections may well

all be second-order elections, subordinate to state-level elections in the minds of the voters and

driven by state-level issues, but they are of different import for state-level policymaking and thus

have different consequences for voter turnout.

The analysis and results in this paper are limited, tentative, and preliminary. Future work

will extend the analysis in several directions. For one, we are interested in looking at the early

years of the Federal Republic. Did the patterns since 1980, observed in this paper, develop

slowly over time, or were they present already in the early years of democracy? In other words,

does the stage of democratization make a difference? A comparison of the early years of the

Federal Republic with the early years of democratic Spain might be able to provide some initial

answers. Second, we will explore further the temporal connections between different levels of

elections by comparing regional voter turnout with the statewide election closest to the

respective regional election rather than the next regional election—sometimes the previous

regional election might be closer in time than the subsequent regional election. Related, we will

borrow from the “electoral balancing” literature on Germany (see Kern and Hainmueller 2006)

further analyze whether the relationship in Germany between regional and state-level elections

differs depending on whether the regional election is a “crucial” one, i.e. whether it can change

existing majorities in the Bundesrat. Furthermore, we will refine our analysis by controlling for

factors other to the relevance of regional elections for state-level policymaking. For example, the

timing of elections may be important: Where sub-state elections are held simultaneously, voter

behavior may resemble state-level electoral behavior more closely than in cases where regional

15

elections take place within a regional context. Jeffery and Hough (2006: 249) suggest that this is

the case for issues and electoral results, and we will explore whether this logic also holds for

turnout. We are also interested in looking at other manifestations of voting behavior, such as vote

choice. For example, if state-level governments in Germany are more closely linked to state-

level policymaking, are voters more likely to “punish” parties in regional elections that are

incumbents at the state level?

In sum, the implications of institutional features of multi-level governance are complex;

this paper has begun to assess their effects on electoral behavior. Further research will help refine

and expand our hypotheses, and the inclusion of additional cases will test the extent to which our

findings hold for other countries.

16

Table 1. Spain: Explaining Differences in Regional Turnout

Parameter Regression coefficient Standard error t-ratio Signif.

Constanta 63.94 8.08 7.91 .00

State turnout .05 .11 .44 .66

Aragón .44 2.90 .15 .88

Canarias -4.13 2.98 -1.38 .17

Cantabria 5.40* 2.91 1.85 .07

Castilla-La Mancha 7.39** 2.96 2.50 .01

Castilla y León 3.71 2.91 1.27 .21

Cataluña -7.29** 2.90 -2.51 .01

C. Foral de Navarra -4.69 2.90 -1.61 .11

C. de Madrid -12.52** 2.92 -4.29 .00

C. Valenciana -7.15** 2.93 -2.44 .02

Extramadura 7.05** 2.93 2.41 .02

Galicia -5.48* 2.95 -1.86 .07

Islas Baleares -4.84* 2.95 -1.64 .10

La Rioja 4.64 2.92 1.59 .12

País Vasco .52 2.86 .18 .86

Principado de Asturias -3.16 2.91 -1.09 .28

Región de Murcia 2.55 2.92 .87 .39 aAndalucía is the base category.

*p<=.10 / **p<=.05

Note: Dependent variable is regional turnout in succeeding election. Adjusted R2 = .538.

17

Table 2. Germany: Explaining Differences in Regional Turnout

Parameter Regression coefficient Standard error t-ratio Signif.

Constanta -24.18 16.11 -1.50 .14

State turnout 1.11** .19 5.69 .00

Bayern 1.26 3.73 .34 .74

Berlin 1.71 4.35 .39 .70

Brandenburg -.19 4.52 -.04 .97

Bremen 3.28 3.74 .88 .38

Hamburg 5.32 3.73 1.43 .16

Hessen 4.18 3.65 1.15 .26

Mecklenburg-Vorp. 13.40** 4.61 2.91 .01

Niedersachsen 3.20 3.75 .85 .40

Nordrhein-Westfalen -1.49 3.87 -.38 .70

Rheinland-Pfalz 5.23 4.11 1.27 .21

Saarland 7.39* 3.91 1.89 .06

Sachsen -2.84 4.43 -.64 .52

Sachsen-Anhalt .69 4.67 .15 .88

Schlesweig-Holstein 6.28 3.87 1.62 .11

Thüringen .01 4.42 .00 1.00 aBaden-Württemberg is the base category. Coefficient estimates regional turnout in Baden-

Württemberg when state-level turnout is equal to 0.

*p<=.10 / **p<=.05

Note: Dependent variable is regional turnout in succeeding election. Adjusted R2 = .463.

18

Figure 1. Spain: Regional Turnout by State Turnout (Regional microdata)

19

20

Figure 2. Spain: State Turnout and Regional Turnout (Aggregated data)

r = .46

r = .50

21

Figure 3. Germany: Regional Turnout by State Turnout (Regional microdata)

22

23

Figure 4. Germany: State Turnout and Regional Turnout (Aggregated data)

r = .76

r = .93 w/o outlier

r = .90

r = .95 w/o outlier

24

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Patterson and Anthony Mughan (eds,) Senates: Bicameralism in the Contemporary

World, Columbus, OH: Ohio State University Press, pp. 59-92.

25

Silvia, Stephen J. 1999. “Reform Gridlock and the Role of the Bundesrat in German Politics,” in

Joanne B. Brzinski, Thomas D. Lancaster and Christian Tuschhoff (eds), Compounded

Representation in Western Federations, London: Routledge, pp. 167-181.

26

Data Sources:

All data for electoral turnout in Germany were taken from http://www.election.de/cgi-

bin/tab.pl?datafile=btw05l.txt.

Data for Spain were taken from www.pre.gva.es/argos/archivo/index.html for regional elections

and from the Ministerio del Interior

(http://www.elecciones.mir.es/MIR/jsp/resultados/index.htm) for state-level elections.