Fire Weather Service Level Specification

Fire Weather Service Level Specification

Season 2021-2022 Severe Weather Environmental Prediction Services

Published by the Bureau of Meteorology

© Commonwealth of Australia 2022 This work is copyright. Apart from any use as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part may be reproduced without prior written permission from the Bureau of Meteorology. Requests and inquiries concerning reproduction and rights should be addressed to the Communication Section, Bureau of Meteorology, GPO Box 1289, Melbourne 3001. Requests for reproduction of material from the Bureau website should be addressed to AMDISS, Bureau of Meteorology, at the same address.

Fire Weather Service Level Specification (SLS)

i

Revision history

Date Version Description Author 18/5/2021 0.1 • Initial Draft Craig Earl-Spurr

25/6/2021 0.2 • Advanced Draft for internal consultation Craig Earl-Spurr

13/01/2022 0.3 • Update based on internal and external feedback

Bradley Santos


ii

Release history

Date Version Status Audience Approval

11/02/2022 1.0 Official All GM_EPS

Review Status

The Fire Weather SLS is reviewed annually and amended, if necessary, before the start of the southern fire season.

Reviewer Date Reviewed Version Reviewed

Evan Morgan 3/2/2022 1.0

Release Signatories

Approval Name Signature Date

GM_EPS Jeff Perkins Version 1.0 11/02/2022


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Contact details

Evan Morgan, Manager Severe Weather Bureau of Meteorology GPO Box 1289 MELBOURNE VIC 3001 Phone: 03 9669 4048 Email: [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]


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Table of Contents

1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 8 Purpose 8

Scope 9

Authority 9

Distribution 9

2 National Fire Weather Services ................................................................................... 10 Partnerships 10

Fire Weather Season 11

Area of Responsibility 11

Dissemination of products 11

Briefing Services 12

Outposted Meteorologists 12

Portable Automatic Weather Stations 12

Communication and adoption activities 12

Service Continuity 12

3 Quality Assurance and Performance ........................................................................... 13 Hazard Services Forum 13

Performance Statistics and Reporting 13

Post Event Review Management 13

Forecaster Training and Competency 13

4 National Fire Weather Product Schedule ..................................................................... 14 Routine Services 15

Non-Routine Services 23

5 Appendix 1: Fire Danger Ratings and Fire Danger Indices .......................................... 29 Grassland Fire Danger Index 29

Forest Fire Danger Index 29

Moorland Fire Danger 30

Fire Danger Rating 31

Determining District Fire Danger Rating 31

6 Appendix 2 Fire Weather District Maps ........................................................................ 33 7 Appendix 3: Product Samples ...................................................................................... 41

Fire Danger Ratings 41

Fire Weather Forecast 42

Fire Weather Warning 46

Incident Weather Forecast 47

Wind Change Chart 51

8 Appendix 4: Product Identifiers .................................................................................... 52


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List of Tables

Table 1: National Fire Weather SLS Distribution List ..................................................................................................................................... 9

Table 2 Local fire weather season ..................................................................................................................................... 11

Table 3 Fire Danger Ratings Issue Times (Local) ..................................................................................................................................... 17

Table 4 Fire Weather Forecast Issue Times (Local) ..................................................................................................................................... 18

Table 5 Wind Change Chart issue times (Local) ..................................................................................................................................... 27

Table 6 Drought Index used in Drought Factor calculations ..................................................................................................................................... 30

Table 7 Fire Danger Indices and corresponding Fire Danger Ratings ..................................................................................................................................... 31

Table 8 Product ID and description for text-based forecasts ..................................................................................................................................... 52

Table 9 Product ID and descriptions of complementary graphics ..................................................................................................................................... 61

List of Figures

Figure 1 - Total Warning System ..................................................................................................................................... 8

Figure 2 Fire Danger seasons across Australia ..................................................................................................................................... 11

Figure 3 New South Wales Fire Weather Districts ..................................................................................................................................... 33

Figure 4 Northern Territory Fire Weather Districts ..................................................................................................................................... 34

Figure 5 Queensland Fire Weather Districts ..................................................................................................................................... 35

https://bom365.sharepoint.com/sites/Fire_Heatwave_AirQuality/publicfiles/Fire%20Weather%20Service%20Level%20Specification.docx#_Toc96350325









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Figure 6 South Australia Fire Weather Districts ..................................................................................................................................... 36

Figure 7 Tasmania Fire Weather Districts ..................................................................................................................................... 37

Figure 8 Victoria Fire Weather Districts ..................................................................................................................................... 38

Figure 9 Western Australia Fire Weather Districts ..................................................................................................................................... 39

Figure 10 South West WA Fire Weather Districts ..................................................................................................................................... 40








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List of acronyms used in this Service Level Specification

ACT Australian Capital Territory

ADFD Australian Digital Forecast Database

AFAC Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council

AGL Above Ground Level

ASL Above Sea Level

BMTC Bureau of Meteorology Training Centre

BNHCRC Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre

cHaines Continuous Haines Index

DF Drought Factor

EMA Emergency Management Australia

FDI Fire Danger Index

FDR Fire Danger Rating

FFDI Forest Fire Danger Index

GFDI Grassland Fire Danger Index

HAZMAT Hazardous Materials

HMA Hazard Management Agency

HSF Hazard Services Forum

ID Identification (numbers or codes)

IWF Incident Weather Forecast

KBDI Keetch-Byram Drought Index

MaxFDI Maximum Fire Danger Index

MFDI Moorland Fire Danger Index

MSDI Mount Soil Dryness Index

MSL Mean Sea Level

NSW New South Wales

NT Northern Territory

NWP Numerical Weather Prediction

PERM Post Event Review Management

PSG Predictive Services Group

QLD Queensland

SA South Australia

SES State Emergency Service

SLS Service Level Specification

SOP Standard Operating Procedures

TAL Thunderstorm Activity Level

TAS Tasmania

VIC Victoria

WA Western Australia


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Purpose

The purpose of the Service Level Specification (SLS) is to document the fire weather services provided by the Bureau of Meteorology (the Bureau). The Total Warning System1 recognises that a fully effective warning service is multi-faceted in nature and its development and operation involves input from several agencies each with specialised roles to play. It is vital that the agencies involved work in close cooperation through all stages of developing and operating the system. The services described here are the Bureau’s contribution to the Total Warning System for fire weather.

Figure 1 - Total Warning System

The Bureau’s role in the fire weather warning system is focussed on monitoring and prediction, message construction and communicating threats and impacts associated with weather conditions that influence fire behaviour to Government, industry, and the community. The Bureau also contributes to activities designed to strengthen organisational readiness and build community resilience and participates in the planning and coordination of activities with disaster mitigation agencies.

1 https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/media/5972/warnings-handbook.pdf, pg. 10

1 Introduction

https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/media/5972/warnings-handbook.pdf


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Scope

The scope of the SLS is the Bureau's publicly available fire weather services and additional services provided to support emergency management. The SLS details what the Bureau does and when it does it, to provide fire weather services. How the Bureau produces fire weather services is addressed in an internal Bureau document National Fire Weather Standard Operating Procedures (SOP).

Authority

The Meteorology Act, 1955 (Cth) gives the Bureau a number of functions including to take

observations, forecast the weather and issue warnings for weather conditions including those

likely to give rise to bush fires. The Intergovernmental Agreement on the Provision of Bureau

of Meteorology Hazard Services to the States and Territories (IGA) confirms the roles and

responsibilities of the Bureau and State and Territory governments and local governments.

The Bureau has responsibility for the provision of forecasting and warning services for weather

conditions likely to give rise to bush fires. The responsibility for bush fire preparation, response

and warning of bush fires lies with State and Territory governments and local governments.

The Schedule 2 of the IGA details the nationally agreed fire weather services.

The Bureau of Meteorology Fire Weather Service Level Specification is issued by the General

Manager Environmental Prediction Services under the authority of the Director of Meteorology.

Distribution

Table 1: National Fire Weather SLS Distribution List

National and State agencies

• Australasian Fire and Emergency Services Authorities Council (AFAC) – Predictive Services Group (PSG)

• Western Australia Department of Fire and Emergency Services (DFES)

• Western Australia Department of Biodiversity Conservation and Attractions, Parks and Wildlife Service (DBCA PWS)

• Queensland Fire and Emergency Services (QFES)

• Queensland Parks and Wildlife Service (QPWS)

• Queensland Inspector General Emergency Management

• Bushfires NT

• Northern Territory Police, Fire and Emergency Services (PFES)

• Emergency Management Australia (EMA)

• New South Wales Rural Fire Service (NSW RFS)

• Australian Capital Territory Emergency Services Authority (ACT ESA)

• Australian Capital Territory Rural Fire Service (ACT RFS)

• Australian Capital Territory Parks and Conservation (ACT PCS)

• South Australia Country Fire Service (CFS)

• Tasmania Fire Service

• Tasmania Parks and Wildlife Service

• Victoria Country Fire Authority (CFA)

• Emergency Management Victoria (EMV)

• Victoria Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning (DELWP)

• Fire Rescue Victoria

• Victoria State Emergency Service

• Victoria Police


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The Bureau's fire weather services provide the Australian community and emergency management with essential fire weather forecasts and warnings that are timely and accurate. To do this, the Bureau has formed partnerships with emergency management organisations, other government authorities and media across the country to ensure that forecasts are fit-for-purpose and are broadly distributed in a timely manner.

The fire weather service is designed to inform the community and counter-disaster organisations of weather conditions that will lead to dangerous fire conditions and to manage fire in the landscape. An important secondary role is to assist local media and state or territory emergency services with public education programs, and to advise on meteorological aspects of fire weather disaster preparedness and planning.

Partnerships

Partnerships underpin the delivery of effective fire weather services to the Australian community. The Bureau has formed partnerships with emergency management organisations, other government authorities and media across the country to ensure that forecasts are fit-for-purpose and are broadly distributed in a timely manner. The partnerships with State and Territory Governments and local government are formalised through the IGA which clarifies and confirms responsibilities across the total warning system. Specifically, the Bureau, States and Territories agreed to work together to mutually develop and maintain national standards for warnings of bush fires and Fire Danger Ratings. State and Territory governments have responsibility for determination of Fire Danger Ratings using fuel load information determined by the jurisdictions and forecast weather provided by the Bureau.

2 National Fire Weather Services


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Fire Weather Season

The season of peak fire danger varies across the country due to different climatic zones. The

below figure broadly illustrates when peak fire danger occurs.

Routine fire weather products are issued during the local fire weather season as detailed in

Table 2. For those jurisdictions that do not issue fire weather products year-round, the dates

are indicative, the commencement and cessation of the service will be agreed between the

Bureau and local fire agencies on a season-by-season basis.

Table 2 Local fire weather season

State NSW/ACT NT Qld SA Tas Vic WA

Season Oct-Mar Year

round

Year

round

Oct-Apr Oct-

May

Nov-

Apr

Year

round

Area of Responsibility

The Bureau's fire weather services cover all Australian states, mainland territories and nearby offshore islands.

Dissemination of products

Publicly available Bureau fire weather products are transmitted via the Bureau's website and

app. Products for fire agencies are transmitted by email, registered user web services and

ftp.

Figure 2 Fire Danger seasons across Australia


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Briefing Services

The Bureau will provide briefings to Emergency Management partners to assist planning,

response, and coordination. The format, timing and frequency of briefings will be agreed

through Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) and Service Orders with each Emergency

Management agency.

Outposted Meteorologists

The Bureau has arrangements with several fire agencies to provide services through an outposted meteorologist to support operational awareness and communication. In each instance, the services provided will be agreed between the Bureau and the fire agency and are provided on a cost recovery basis.

Portable Automatic Weather Stations

The Bureau supports fire agencies by ingesting and displaying data from agency owned and

operated Portable Automatic Weather Stations (PAWS) into observational product suites.

Communication and adoption activities

In addition to issuing products through standard communication channels (e.g., website, app, email), the Bureau undertakes a range of complementary communication and adoption activities in partnership with emergency management agencies. These activities are aimed to increase the uptake and effectiveness of the forecasts and warnings and ensure consistent weather safety messages are provided to the community. This includes community and industry preparedness briefings, social media campaigns and the Bureau's Fire Weather Knowledge Centre web pages. During the season this extends to joint press conferences and media interviews, as well as continuing social media public safety campaigns and community and industry briefings.

Service Continuity

The Bureau maintains service continuity through its Business Continuity Plan. Most pertinent

to Fire Weather services is the built-in redundancy of being able to transfer operations

between offices as required.

To maintain service continuity, the Bureau uses a large and diverse range of observational

and forecast data in the delivery of its fire weather services. This provides redundancy if any

data source is unavailable during operations and ensures all products and services are

based on the best available information at all times.

http://www.bom.gov.au/weather-services/fire-weather-centre/


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Hazard Services Forum

The IGA established the Hazards Services Forum (HSF) in 2018. The HSF facilitates consultation with State and Territory operational emergency service agencies to guide current and future strategic development of the Bureau of Meteorology’s hazard services. In particular, to enable the States and Territories to request and prioritise changes to the Standard Services and to refer services that could be considered Supplementary Services to the Bureau for consideration. The HSF also assist with the process of consulting on modifications to Services Schedules.

Performance Statistics and Reporting

All official forecast and warning products are verified against available observations and compiled into routine reports. Following fires that have had a significant impact on community safety and/or livelihoods, the Bureau may prepare a report on the meteorological aspects surrounding the event and forecast performance as part of its post event review process.

Post Event Review Management

The Bureau conducts an internal Post Event Review Management (PERM) process after fire events that have had a significant community or operational impact. The insights and recommendations gained from these post event reviews are used to improve processes, systems and services delivered by the Bureau. Depending on the impact from a fire event, the PERM process may include a debrief with external partners. Upon request, the Bureau also contributes to post incident reviews conducted by emergency services and government.

Forecaster Training and Competency

The Bureau delivers a fire weather training and competency-based assessment program for meteorologists. This program ensures that staff involved in analysing and forecasting fire weather have the qualifications, training and demonstrated ability to provide a high standard of fire weather services to the Australian community.

3 Quality Assurance and Performance


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Fire weather services provided by the Bureau utilise gridded forecast data covering the entire Australian domain. The service utilises several Fire Danger Indices and corresponding Fire Danger Ratings at point locations and at a District level. State and Territory fire agencies are responsible for providing the Bureau with fuel data (fuel curing and fuel load) to calculate forecast and observed fire danger indices. Detailed information on how the Fire Danger Indices and Ratings are determined is included in Appendix 1: Fire Danger Ratings and Fire Danger Indices. For a complete listing of Fire Weather Districts, see Appendix 2 Fire Weather District Maps. Unless otherwise noted, all issue times in this document are quoted as local time for the relevant jurisdiction and time of year.

4 National Fire Weather Product Schedule


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Routine Services

Australian Seasonal Bushfire Outlook

Commissioners and Chief Officers Strategic Committee (CCOSC) releases the Australian

Seasonal Bushfire Outlook quarterly. It is used by fire authorities to make strategic decisions for year-round fire management such as resource planning and prescribed fire management to reduce the negative impacts of bushfire. The Bureau contributes Recent Conditions and Climate Outlook information within a bushfire context to assist in the production of the Seasonal Bushfire Outlook.


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Australian Digital Forecast Database

The Bureau's Real-time Data Services provide tailored delivery of real-time Bureau of Meteorology products including datasets such as numerical output grids, satellite and radar data and web map service layers. Part of these services is the Australian Digital Forecast Database (ADFD) which includes grids that are relevant to Fire Weather, providing detailed forecast information across all States and mainland Territories. These grids are available all year round. The ADFD files are updated routinely twice per day at around 6am and 6pm local time and updated at other times as required. ADFD grids are not necessarily updated at the same time as other fire weather forecasts and warnings, as priority is given to updating the forecasts and warnings issued directly to the public through the media or web. Further details, including information on data bundles, can be found at http://reg.bom.gov.au/reguser/ or http://reg.bom.gov.au/catalogue/adfdUserGuide.pdf.

http://reg.bom.gov.au/reguser/

http://reg.bom.gov.au/catalogue/adfdUserGuide.pdf


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Fire Danger Ratings

Purpose

A 4-day summary of Fire Danger Ratings for each Fire Weather District is provided to the

public for awareness of the extent to which weather conditions will enhance fire related risks,

and to assist with agency tactical planning. The Fire Danger Ratings are issued in

consultation with the fire agency.

Issue and Validity times

Issue times are summarised in Table 3 and the following validity applies for each product.

Fire Danger Ratings – 4 Day valid for the next 4 days when issued in the afternoon and valid

for the current day and following 3 days when issued in the morning.

Table 3 Fire Danger Ratings Issue Times (Local)

State Afternoon Issue Morning Issue

NSW/ACT 4:15 pm 5:05 am

NT 4:00 pm 5:00 am

QLD 4:00 pm n/a

SA 4:05 pm n/a

TAS 4:00 pm n/a

VIC 4:00 pm 5:30 am

WA 4:10 pm 4:35 am

The Fire Danger Ratings are available on the web at,

NSW: http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/fire-danger-ratings.shtml

NT: http://www.bom.gov.au/nt/forecasts/fire-danger-ratings.shtml

QLD: http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/fire-danger-ratings.shtml

SA: http://www.bom.gov.au/sa/forecasts/fire-danger-ratings.shtml

TAS: http://www.bom.gov.au/tas/forecasts/fire-danger-ratings.shtml

VIC: http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/fire-danger-ratings.shtml

WA: http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/forecasts/fire-danger-ratings.shtml

http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/fire-danger-ratings.shtml

http://www.bom.gov.au/nt/forecasts/fire-danger-ratings.shtml

http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/fire-danger-ratings.shtml

http://www.bom.gov.au/sa/forecasts/fire-danger-ratings.shtml

http://www.bom.gov.au/tas/forecasts/fire-danger-ratings.shtml

http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/fire-danger-ratings.shtml

http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/forecasts/fire-danger-ratings.shtml


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Fire Weather Forecast

Purpose

The Fire Weather Forecast provides district level, and preselected point location information

to fire agencies of forecast weather parameters that are of greatest consequence to fire

ignition, suppression and behaviour.

Issue and Validity times

Fire Weather Forecasts are issued each afternoon during the Fire Weather season at the

times in Table 4. A separate product is issued for each of the following 4 days, with a

morning update for the current day issued in some states.

When more than 1% of the grid cells in a fire weather district exceed 50 MaxFDI, or at the

request of the fire agency, a preliminary issue for the following day will be provided to

agencies in the relevant state. In SA, a verbal briefing is provided to the State Duty

Commander by the embedded met or by the FHAQ EP team when the embedded met is not

on duty.

Table 4 Fire Weather Forecast Issue Times (Local)

State/Territory Preliminary Issue Afternoon Issue Morning Issue

NSW By 12:00 pm (if catastrophic

FDR forecast for Day 1),

otherwise by 2:00 pm

4:15 pm 6:00 am

ACT By 2:00 pm 4:00 pm 6:00 am

NT By 12:30pm 4:00 pm 5:30 am

QLD By 2:00 pm 4:00 pm n/a

SA 4:00 pm (Day 1)

4:30 pm (Days 2-4)

n/a

TAS By 12:00 pm 4:00 pm n/a

VIC By 12:30 pm 4:00 pm 6:30 am

WA By 12:00 pm 4:00 pm 4:30 am

Amendment Criteria for Fire Weather Forecasts and Warnings

Fire Weather Forecasts will be monitored and, in consultation with fire agencies, updated in accordance with the below criteria. If earlier than 11:30 am local time,

• New observance of FFDI or GFDI exceeding 50 Severe (or FFDI exceeding 38 Very High in Tasmania) for a period of 1 hour or more, and it is expected to persist for at least an hour, or high confidence of severe fire danger rating affecting more than 10%


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of the district for at least an hour (38 Very High in Tasmania) in place of a lower fire danger rating.

• New observance of FFDI exceeding 100 or GFDI exceeding 150 Catastrophic for a period of 1 hour or more and is expected to persist for at least an hour, or high confidence of catastrophic fire danger rating affecting more than 10% of the district for at least an hour in place of a lower fire danger rating.

• High confidence that previously forecast Catastrophic fire danger rating will not be met. This means that all grid points within the district must be below the catastrophic fire danger rating threshold.

• High confidence that previously forecast Severe (or 38 Very High in Tasmania) fire danger rating will not be met. This means that all grid points within the district must be below the severe (or 38 very high for Tasmania) fire danger rating threshold.

• A significantly earlier or later timing of a major wind change.

Fire Weather Forecasts for the current day will not be updated after 11:30am.

Content

• Date/Time

• District Summary, including. o Fire Danger Index o Fire Danger Rating o Percentage Coverage o Fire Weather Warning

• Text Forecast

• District Weather Elements, including. o TAL2 o cHaines3 o Probability Rain >5mm o 1500m Wind (km/h) o 3000m Wind (km/h) o Mixing Height (m)4

• Detailed District Forecast, including. o Fuel Type o District FDI o Percentage Coverage, Start Time, and duration for significant thresholds.

• Location Forecasts at Time of Maximum Fire Danger, including. o Time o Temperature

2 TAL (Thunderstorm Activity Level): A spatial forecast for thunderstorms. 0 for no thunderstorms, 1 for isolated thunderstorms, 2 for scattered thunderstorms, 3 for widespread thunderstorms. 3 cHaines: The continuous Haines Index (C-Haines) is a measure of the humidity and (in)stability of the atmosphere. The index ranges up to about 13 (very dry and unstable) but by definition has no specified lower bounds. C-Haines can link vertical atmospheric stability and humidity with erratic fire behaviour, potentially highlighting states where intensely burning fires have an increased probability of producing a significant convective column that could lead to long distance spotting and sudden changes in fire spread due to erratic local winds. 4 The height in metres above mean sea level to which the atmosphere is uniform with respect to heat energy.


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o Relative Humidity o Wind Direction Speed and Gust Strength o Fuel State Data o Wind Change Direction, Speed, Gust Strength and Timing

Notes

1. A suite of images providing a graphical overview of the Fire Weather Forecast are provided to agencies, displaying spatial and temporal variance in finer detail, see Appendix 4 for a full list of images. A subset of these images (labelled 'External') is available to the public via the Bureau's website.

2. In Western Australia and the Northern Territory, Fire Weather Forecasts are available to the public for Day 1 of the afternoon issue (current day of morning issue) via the Bureau's website.


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Fire Weather Bulletin

Purpose

The Fire Weather Bulletin displays real time weather observations and associated FDR/FDI

calculations along with the details of the maximum FDI observed since local midnight. It is

provided to Fire Agencies to assist with situational awareness and monitoring actual weather

conditions.

Content

• Update Time

• Explanatory notes

• Table of observations sorted by district summarising the following;

o Station

o Drought Factor (where applicable)

o Grass Curing

o Grass Load

o Current Observations

▪ Time

▪ Temperature

▪ Dew Point Temperature

▪ Relative Humidity

▪ Wind Direction

▪ Wind Speed

▪ Wind Gust

▪ Corresponding FDR/FDI

o Max FDI since local midnight (repeated for each relevant FDI in the state)

▪ Time

▪ Temperature

▪ Dew Point Temperature

▪ Relative Humidity

▪ Wind Direction

▪ Wind Speed

▪ Wind Gust

▪ Corresponding FDR/FDI

▪ Missing Data Flag


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Ground Moisture Data

The Bureau provides Ground Moisture Data to fire agencies to assist with strategic planning.

The data is calculated by applying dryness or drought indices to observational data and can

be viewed on registered user pages and is presented in tabular and/or graphical formats,

depending on the jurisdiction.


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Non-Routine Services

Fire Weather Warning

Purpose

The Bureau issues fire weather warnings to alert the community that weather conditions are likely to make the suppression or control of fires difficult.

Issue criteria, Times and Validity

Fire Weather Warnings for a district are issued when the District Fire Danger Rating is Severe or greater (see Appendix 1: Fire Danger Ratings and Fire Danger Indices). They are issued no later than 4:15pm in the afternoon for either the remainder of the current day and/or the following day, with a 5:00am morning update covering the remainder of the current day.

Amendment Criteria for Fire Weather Forecasts and Warnings

Fire Weather Warnings will be monitored and updated as needed at any time of day, in consultation with local fire agencies. See Section 4.1.4 Fire Weather Forecast for more detail on amendment criteria.

Content

• Issue time

• Weather Situation

• Validity time

• Fire Danger Rating and affected districts

• Community Alerts (referenced to Emergency Service Organisation)

• Next issue time

Notes

1. In Tasmania, Fire Weather Warnings will be issued when the District FDR/FDI is Very High/38 or greater

2. In consultation with fire agencies, some discretion can be applied for the issuance of a Fire Weather Warning when the FDI 50 / FDR Severe District Fire Danger Rating (FDI 38 / FDR Very High in Tasmania) criterion is not satisfied.


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Incident Weather Forecasts

Purpose

Incident Weather Forecasts (IWF) are site-specific forecasts issued to assist with tactical decision making in operations. IWF are only provided to designated fire agencies and are only provided for fire (uncontrolled fires/bushfires or prescribed/hazard reduction burns) or HAZMAT operations.

IWF Requests

IWF are requested by a designated fire agency through the Bureau's online IWF request system. Any subsequent issues of an IWF require additional requests to be submitted via the online request system. During periods of large request volumes, the Bureau's Fire Weather Meteorologists will liaise with the relevant fire agencies to clarify and prioritise forecast requirements.

Issue and Validity Times

For urgent requests, usually those associated with bushfires, the IWF is issued as soon as possible and within one hour of receiving the request. Otherwise, an IWF is issued in accordance with the requested (or agreed) forecast start time. IWF validity should be included in the request and can be 6hr, 12hr, 18hr, 24hr or 30hr from the forecast start time. If no validity period is included in the request, a 12hr forecast will be issued. An IWF request also has the option to include an outlook for up to 4 days ahead. A 4-day outlook will only be included when specifically requested (see notes below).

Amendment Criteria for Incident Weather Forecasts

IWF will be monitored and updated if one or more of the following criteria are observed and forecast to persist or there is an equivalent change in forecast conditions.

• Change in the likelihood of thunderstorms affecting the incident site.

• Change in the timing of a thunderstorm affecting the incident site.

• Change in the timing of a wind change by 1 hour or more.

• Change in temperature of 5 degrees, or agency specified temperature requirement.

• Change in dew point temperature of 5 degrees, or agency specified dew point temperature requirement.

• Change in relative humidity of 20, or agency specified relative humidity requirement.

• Change in wind speed of 20 km/h, or agency specified wind speed requirement.

• Change in wind direction of 45 degrees for wind speeds greater than 20 km/h, or agency specified wind speed requirement.

These criteria apply only to the validity period of an IWF, no amendments will be issued for changes to outlook days.

Content

• Incident Details, including o Issue Time o Incident Type o Forecast Location o Latitude/Longitude


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o Elevation (metres ASL) o Fuel Type o Form Number o Request Number o Fax Number o Contact Phone o Contact Name o Email

• Significant wind changes and uncertainties

• Thunderstorm potential, precipitation, cloud, and uncertainties

• Spatial variation of conditions and other important information

• Validity Time

• Fuel State Data

• Tabular details including o Local Time o Temperature o Dewpoint temperature o Relative Humidity o 10m Wind Direction, Speed and Gust Strength o 1000m AGL Wind Direction and Speed o FDI o Mixing Height o cHaines o TAL

• Notes on information in table

• Notes on taking observations and liaising with forecasters.

• 2m wind, 10m wind and Beaufort Scale conversion table The 4-day outlook component (if requested) includes.

• Text summary for each relevant day

• Fuel State and Precipitation data, including. o Fuel Type o FDI Type o Max Drought Factor o Max Curing Value o Max Grass Fuel Load o Precipitation in the previous 48 hours o Hours since precipitation at 00:00

• Tabular data at time of maximum fire danger and time of minimum fire danger, including.

o Time o Temperature o Dewpoint temperature o Relative Humidity o 10m Wind Direction, Speed and Gust Strength o 1000m AGL Wind Direction and Speed o FDI o Mixing Height MSL

• Daily summary of maximum cHaines, TAL, Probability of rain >5mm

Notes

1. After submitting a request through the online system fire agency staff are required to call the fire weather forecaster to confirm receipt of the request.


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2. In NSW, outlooks will be included by default for IWF with 1 day included for Hazard Reduction and 3 days for Wildfire or Section 44

3. In Queensland, South Australia, and Western Australia, the 4-day outlook can be requested as a separate product to the standard IWF.


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Wind Change Chart

Purpose

A Wind Change Chart is provided to fire agencies in New South Wales, South Australia, and Victoria to advise of the forecast time of a significant wind change to assist operations.

Issue criteria, Times and Validity

A Wind Change Chart service is issued on days when a significant, trackable synoptic wind change is expected and at least one district in the relevant state has a forecast District Fire Danger Index reaching the threshold in Table 5. The validity will be up to 15 hours. Forecasts will be reissued according to the frequency in Table 5 and cease when conditions no longer pose a significant threat to any ongoing fire.

Table 5 Wind Change Chart issue times (Local)

State/Territory District FDI Threshold First Issue Update frequency

NSW 25 8:30 am 6 hourly (see Notes)

SA 50 No later than 10am 3 hourly

Vic 35 When wind change is observed over the state

3 hourly

Amendment Criteria

If the position of the wind change is significantly different to the forecast position (defined as more than 1 hour faster or slower than forecast within the next 3 hours), or the difference is likely to impact fire agencies. In NSW the following criteria are used:

• For well-defined southerly changes over coastal areas if the revised timing is >1 hour faster/slower than previously forecast.

• For changes over the inland and ranges if the revised timing is >2 hours faster/slower than previously forecast.

Content

The Wind Change Chart consists of a graphic showing a recent observed location of the wind change and forecast locations of the wind change at 3 hour increments out to a maximum of 15 hours from the issue time, accompanied by supporting text.

Notes

1. Following consultation with fire agencies, the service may be activated when FDI triggers are not met. Typically, this would be when there are going fires of concern.

2. In South Australia, the criteria for issuing only applies to the southern half of the state. 3. On high end days (e.g. when the fire danger is expected to be Extreme or

Catastrophic), the wind change chart will be issued every three hours, with forecast change positions 12 hours ahead, until discussion with the fire agencies indicates that conditions no longer pose a threat

4. A Wind Change Chart will be issued if the change is crossing a district with Severe (or higher) rating, rather than any district in the state. For example, if the change only affects the southeast, but there is Severe ratings in the NE, a WCC would not be issued.


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Smoke Modelling

The Australian Smoke Dispersion System (ASDS) is available to fire agencies in New South

Wales and Victoria and is provided on a cost recovery basis. It combines bushfire, fuel

reduction burn and atmospheric data with weather and chemical transport models to

estimate the likely concentration and distribution of smoke at ground level from a range of

sources.

Features of the service include:

• Probabilities of FFDI/GFDI exceeding critical fire danger thresholds for the next 6 days.

• Point-specific ensemble fire weather information for the next 6 days for specified

locations at 3-hourly intervals.

• Gridded ventilation parameters for the next 3 days using an 11 km grid at 4-hourly

intervals.

• Gridded pollution forecasts for the next 3 days.

• Verification of hourly pollution from 21 EPA monitoring sites in Victoria.

• Gridded pollutions forecasts for the next 24 hours at hourly intervals for planned burn

sites, based on the size and fuel of the burn.

• Pollution forecasts for the next 24 hours at hourly intervals for specific locations.


29

Grassland Fire Danger Index

The CSIRO-modified McArthur Mark 4 Grassland Fire Danger Meter. The specific

algorithm used is:

GFDI = expe(-1.523+1.027*ln(Q) - 0.009432*(100-C) 1.536 + 0.02764*T + 0.6422*(V) 0.5 -

0.2205*(RH) 0.5 )

Where:

GFDI = Grassland Fire Danger Index

Q = fuel quantity (t/ha)

C = degree of curing (%)

T = air temperature (°C)

V = 10-minute mean wind speed at 10 metres (km/h)

RH = relative humidity (%)

Curing is a measure of the percentage of dead material in a grassland environment. A

curing value of 0% represents totally green vegetation and 100% represents totally dry

vegetation.

Curing data and fuel quantity are determined by State and Territory fire agencies.

Forest Fire Danger Index

The McArthur Mark 5 Forest Danger Meter. The specific algorithm is:

FFDI = e^(ln(2)−0.45+0.987*ln(DF)−0.0345*RH+0.0338*T+0.0234*V

Where:

DF = Drought Factor (dimensionless number between 0 and 10)

T = air temperature (°C)

V = 10-minute mean wind speed at 10 metres (km/h)

For FFDI, the fuel component is the Drought Factor (DF).

The Drought Factor (DF) is a measure of the short-term dryness (or dryness of fine

fuels) in a forest. It estimates the proportion (in tenths) of the fine fuels (< 6mm) in a

forest that will burn in a fire. DF = 0 all fuels wet, no fires possible, DF = 5 half the fine

fuel will burn, DF = 10 all fuels dry and ready to burn, including peat and logs.

Drought Factor is derived from different indices for different parts of the country,

summarised in table 6.

5 Appendix 1: Fire Danger Ratings and Fire Danger Indices


30

Table 6 Drought Index used in Drought Factor calculations

State/Territory Seasonal Drought Index

NSW Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI)

NT n/a

QLD Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI)

SA Mount Soil Dryness Index (MSDI)

TAS Mount Soil Dryness Index (MSDI)

VIC Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI)

WA Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI)

Both the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) and Mount Soil Dryness Index (MSDI)

are measures of the long-term dryness (dryness of heavy fuels) of the forest. They

estimate the amount of rainfall (in mm) needed to saturate the soil profile. KBDI/MSDI

= 0 when the ground is saturated. KBDI/MSDI = 200 represents extremely dry

conditions or soil that is completely devoid of moisture.

Moorland Fire Danger

A Moisture Factor, Mf, is defined as: Mf = Hf + Rf,

Where Hf, Humidity Factor, is:

Hf = exp(1.660 + 0.0214*(relative humidity) – 0.0292*(dewpoint temperature))

And Rf, Rainfall Factor, is:

Rf = 67.128 * ( 1- exp(-3.132 * rain )) * exp(-0.0858 * (hours since rain))

Here, Rf is assumed to be: Rf = Rf_to_9am + Rf_since_9am

For implementation within the fire weather forecast system, the validity time for the

forecast is assumed to be 3pm, and (hours since rain) for Rf_to_9am is 6, while (hours

since rain) for Rf_since_9am is assumed 0.

This gives:

Rf_to_9am = 40.117 * (1 – exp(-3.132 * (rain 24 hours to 9am)))

Rf_since_9am = 67.128 * (1 – exp(-3.132 * (rain since 9am)))

The Productivity of a site, Prod, is either “low”, 1, or “medium”, 2. For fire weather

calculations, assume Prod = 2.

Windspeed for moorland calculations is the speed 2 metres above ground, assumed to

be 2/3 of the standard (forecast) 10 metre windspeed.

The probability of ignition, prob, of a fire is:

Prob = 1/(1 + exp(-(-1 + 0.68 * windspeed -0.07 * Mf +-0.0037 * windspeed * Mf + 2.10

* Prod)))


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If prob < 0.3, then the moorland FDI is set to 0, otherwise.

FDI = 0.65 * exp( 1.02 * ln( ROS)),

where ROS, the rate of spread of the fire, is:

ROS = 0.678 * exp( 1.312 * ln(windspeed)) * exp(-0.0243 * Mf) * (1 – exp(- 0.116*age))

Age here is the time since last burning and is assumed in the operational

implementation to be ten years. Thus, ROS becomes:

ROS = 0.678 * exp( 1.312 * ln( windspeed )) * exp(-0.0243 * Mf) * 0.687

Fire Danger Rating

Fire Danger Ratings are assigned according to the corresponding Fire Danger Index

values in Table 7.

Table 7 Fire Danger Indices and corresponding Fire Danger Ratings

Rating GFDI FFDI Moorland FDI

Low/Moderate 0-11 0-11 0-11

High 12-24 12-24 12-24

Very High 25-49 25-49 25-49

Severe 50-99 50-74 50-74

Extreme 100-149 75-99 75-99

Catastrophic 150+ 100+ 100+

Notes

1. In Western Australia High is 12-31 for both GFDI and FFDI. Very High is 32-49 for both GFDI and FFDI.

2. In Western Australia Severe is 50-74, Extreme 75-99 and Catastrophic is 100+ for GFDI. 3. In Victoria, Catastrophic is known as Code Red and the Emergency Management

Commissioner determines whether a Code Red is determined for GFDI values 150+ and FFDI values 100+. A Code Red may also be declared based on other criteria such as the number of going fires

Determining District Fire Danger Rating

1) Fire Danger Indices are calculated according to the relevant FDI formulas for each forecast grid cell at hourly time intervals.

2) The Maximum FDI (MaxFDI) across each day is determined for each grid cell, according to the relevant fuel type (as advised by local fire agencies).

3) The Maximum FDR is determined for each grid cell based on the MaxFDI, corresponding FDR and relevant fuel type.

4) The highest Maximum FDR met or exceeded by at least 10% of grid cells in a district determines the Fire Danger Rating for that District.

5) The local Hazard Management Agency (HMA) responsible for fire weather has absolute discretion to vary the District Fire Danger Rating from the value


32

determined by this method. Liaison arrangements between the Bureau and agencies for the final determination of District Fire Danger Ratings are agreed to at a local level.


33

6 Appendix 2 Fire Weather District Maps

Figure 3 New South Wales Fire Weather Districts


34

Figure 4 Northern Territory Fire Weather Districts


35

Figure 5 Queensland Fire Weather Districts


36

Figure 6 South Australia Fire Weather Districts


37

Figure 7 Tasmania Fire Weather Districts


38

Figure 8 Victoria Fire Weather Districts


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Figure 9 Western Australia Fire Weather Districts


40

Figure 10 South West WA Fire Weather Districts


41

Fire Danger Ratings

7 Appendix 3: Product Samples


42

Fire Weather Forecast


43


44


45


46

Fire Weather Warning


47

Incident Weather Forecast


48


49


50


51

Wind Change Chart


52

Table 8 Product ID and description for text-based forecasts

Product ID Description

Fire Weather Forecasts for NSW

IDN10017 Day 0/1 Preliminary Forecast

IDN10018 Day 0/1 Forecast

IDN10020 Day 1/2 Outlook



Fire Weather Forecasts for ACT

IDN29199 Day 0/1 Preliminary Forecast

IDN29200 Day 0/1 Forecast




Fire Danger Ratings NSW/ACT

IDN65068 1 Day

IDN10016 4 Days

Warnings NSW/ACT

IDN22000 NSW Fire Weather Warning 1

IDN22001 NSW Fire Weather Warning 2

IDN22200 ACT Fire Weather Warning

Wind Change Chart NSW/ACT

IDN65171 Frontal Analysis Chart

IDN65233 Frontal Analysis Chart – Landscape

Incident Weather Forecasts NSW/ACT

IDN30100 Incident Weather Forecast 1













8 Appendix 4: Product Identifiers


53






































Fire Weather Bulletin NSW/ACT

IDN60036 Fire Weather Bulletin

Fire Weather Forecasts NT

IDD10720 Day 0/1 Preliminary Forecast

IDD10721 Day 0/1 Forecast

IDD10722 Day 1/2 Outlook




54

Fire Danger Ratings NT

IDD10730 1 Day

IDD10731 4 Days

Warnings NT

IDD20320 Fire Weather Warning 1

IDD20330 Fire Weather Warning 2

Incident Weather Forecasts NT

IDD20340 Incident Weather Forecast 1




















Fire Weather Bulletin NT

IDD65015 Fire Weather Bulletin

Fire Weather Forecasts QLD

IDQ13014 Day 0/1 Preliminary Forecast

IDQ13010 Day 0/1 Forecast

IDQ13011 Day 1/2 Outlook



Fire Danger Ratings QLD

IDQ13015 Fire Danger Ratings 1 Day

IDQ13016 Fire Danger Ratings 4 Days

Warnings QLD

IDQ20035 Fire Weather Warning 1

IQD20036 Fire Weather Warning 2

Incident Weather Forecasts QLD

IDQ20100 Incident Weather Forecast 1



55



















Incident Weather 4 Day Forecasts QLD

IDQ20140 Incident Weather 4 Day Forecast 1




















Fire Weather Bulletin QLD

IDQ60130 Fire Weather Bulletin

Fire Weather Forecasts SA

IDS65310 Day 0/1 Preliminary Forecast

IDS65006 Day 0/1 Forecast

IDS65307 Day 1/2 Outlook


56



Fire Danger Ratings SA

IDS10069 1 Day

IDS10070 4 Day

Warnings SA

IDS20290 Fire Weather Warning 1

IDS20299 Fire Weather Warning 2

Wind Change Chart SA

IDS20310 Severe Wx Front/Wind Change Forecast Map

Incident Weather Forecasts SA

IDS20311 Incident Weather Forecast 1




















Incident Weather 4 Day Forecasts SA

IDS20321 Incident Weather 4 Day Forecast 1










Fire Weather Bulletin SA

IDS60086 Fire Weather Bulletin


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Fire Weather Forecasts TAS

IDT13134 Day 0/1 Preliminary Forecast

IDT13130 Day 0/1 Forecast

IDT13131 Day 1/2 Outlook



Fire Danger Ratings TAS

IDT13151 4 Days

IDT13150 1 Day

Warnings TAS

IDT31100 Fire Weather Warning 1

IDT31200 Fire Weather Warning 2

Incident Weather Forecasts TAS

IDT31000 Incident Weather Forecast 1




















Fire Weather Bulletin TAS

IDT60011 Fire Weather Bulletin

Fire Weather Forecasts VIC

IDV22010 Day 0/1 Preliminary Forecast

IDV18560 Day 0/1 Forecast

IDV18570 Day 1/2 Outlook



Fire Danger Ratings VIC

IDV18550 1 Day


58

IDV18555 4 Days

Warnings VIC

IDV22000 Fire Weather Warning 1

IDV22001 Fire Weather Warning 2

Wind Change Chart VIC

IDV65059 Forecast Wind Change Chart for Victoria

Incident Weather Forecasts VIC

IDV31050 Incident Weather Forecast 1




















Fire Weather Bulletin VIC

IDV60236 Fire Weather Bulletin

Fire Weather Forecasts for Southwest Land Division WA

IDW15230 Day 0/1 Preliminary Forecast

IDW15000 Day 0/1 Forecast

IDW15200 Day 1/2 Outlook



Fire Weather Forecasts for Central and Eastern WA






Fire Weather Forecasts for Northern WA





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Fire Danger Ratings WA

IDW13050 1 Day

IDW15100 4 Day

Warnings WA

IDW30000 Fire Weather Warning 1



Incident Weather Forecasts WA

IDW30500 Incident Weather Forecast 1




































60





Incident Weather 4 Day Forecasts WA

IDW32200 Incident Weather 4 Day Forecast 1




















Fire Weather Bulletin WA

IDW60018 Fire Weather Bulletin


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Table 9 Product ID and descriptions of complementary graphics

Product ID Description

Fire Weather Outlook Images - Internal NSW/ACT

IDN65319 Preliminary Hours FDI > 50 Day 0/1

IDN65320 Day 0/1 Hours FDI > 50




Fire Weather Outlook Images NSW/ACT

IDN65309 Max Fire Danger - Preliminary Day 0/1

IDN65310 Max Fire Danger - Day 0/1




Fire Weather Outlook Images - External NSW/ACT

IDN65406 Max Forest FDI - Day 0/1

IDN65334 Max Grassland FDI - Day 0/1

Fire Weather Outlook Images NT

IDD65445 Max Grassland FDI - Preliminary Day 0/1

IDD65421 Max Grassland FDI - Day 0/1




IDD65435 Hours GFDI Above 50 - Preliminary Day 0/1

IDD65431 Hours GFDI Above 50 - Day 0/1




Fire Weather Outlook Images - External NT


Fire Weather Outlook Images QLD

IDQ65505 Max Forest FDI - Preliminary Day 0/1

IDQ65501 Max Forest FDI - Day 0/1




IDQ65515 Hours FFDI Above 50 - Preliminary Day 0/1

IDQ65511 Hours FFDI Above 50 - Day 0/1




IDQ65525 Max Grassland FDI - Preliminary Day 0/1

IDQ65521 Max Grassland FDI - Day 0/1




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IDQ65535 Hours GFDI Above 50 - Preliminary Day 0/1

IDQ65531 Hours GFDI Above 50 - Day 0/1




IDQ65539 Max Fire Danger Index - Preliminary Day 0/1

IDQ65540 Max Fire Danger Index - Day 0/1




Fire Weather Outlook Images - External QLD



Fire Weather Outlook Images SA

IDS65421 Day 0/1 Max GFDI




IDS65425 Preliminary Day 0/1 Max GFDI

IDS65401 Day 0/1 Max FFDI

IDS65406 Max Forest Fire Danger Day 0/1 External




IDS65405 Preliminary Day 0/1 Max FFDI

IDS65431 Day 0/1 Max GFDI Hrs > 50




IDS65435 Preliminary Day 0/1 Max GFDI Hrs > 50

IDS65411 Day 0/1 Max FFDI Hours > 50

IDS65412 Day 1/2 Max FFDI Hrs > 50

IDS65426 Max Grassland FDI - Day 0/1 External



IDS65415 Preliminary Day 0/1 MaxFFDI Hrs > 50

Fire Weather Outlook Images TAS

IDT65425 Max Moorland FDI - Preliminary Day 0/1

IDT65421 Max Moorland FDI - Day 0/1




IDT65435 Hours MFDI Above 25 - Preliminary Day 0/1

IDT65431 Hours MFDI Above 25 - Day 0/1


63




IDT65405 Max Forest FDI - Preliminary Day 0/1

IDT65401 Max Forest FDI - Day 0/1




IDT65415 Hours FFDI Above 25 - Preliminary Day 0/1

IDT65411 Hours FFDI Above 25 - Day 0/1




IDT65441 Max Grass FDI - Day 0/1




IDT65445 Max Grass FDI - Preliminary Day 0/1

IDT65450 Hours GFDI Above 25 - Day 0/1




IDT65454 Hours GFDI Above 25 - Preliminary Day 0/1

Fire Weather Outlook Images - External TAS




Fire Weather Outlook Images VIC

IDV65401 Day 0/1 Max Forest FDI

IDV65411 Day 0/1 Hours FFDI > 50







IDV65421 Day 0/1 Max Grassland FDI

IDV65431 Day 0/1 Hours GFDI > 50







Fire Weather Outlook Images - External VIC


64

IDV65406 Max Forest FDI - Day 0/1

IDV65426 Max Grassland FDI - Day 0/1

Fire Weather Outlook Images WA

IDW65309 Max Fire Danger - Preliminary Day 0/1

IDW65310 Max Fire Danger - Day 0/1




Fire Weather Outlook Images for Northern WA

IDW65425 Max Grassland FDI - Preliminary Day 0/1

IDW65421 Max Grassland FDI - Day 0/1




IDW65435 Hours GFDI Above 32 - Preliminary Day 0/1

IDW65431 Hours GFDI Above 32 - Day 0/1









IDW65465 Max Forest FDI - Preliminary Day 0/1

IDW65461 Max Forest FDI - Day 0/1




IDW65475 Max FFDI Hours > 32 - Preliminary Day 0/1

IDW65471 Max Forest FDI Hours > 32 - Day 0/1









Fire Weather Outlook Images for Northern WA - External



Fire Weather Outlook Images for Southern WA

IDW65430 Max Grassland FDI - Preliminary Day 0/1



65














IDW65470 Max FFDI - Preliminary Day 0/1















Fire Weather Outlook Images for Southern WA - External


IDW65492 Max Forest FDI Day 0/1

Documents

Fire Weather Service Level Specification