BUSINESS & FINANACE

How to Make Moneyin a Politi cized Market

The Case of HDTV

Jeffrey A. HartBRIE

June 1,1989

BUSINESS & FINANCE

Assumptions

there will be a globat HDTV market

- if US stays with IDTV or EDTV, thenHDTV will develop first in Japan and Ec

r there will be difficulties withdelivery and technology for HDTV

,-1 - delivery will be pushed by fear of tossof audience

- vcFls wilt push cable and cable will pushOver the Air to go to HDTV

technology wiil be pushed by belief inspinoffs for other businesses

in the US, there may be furtherdifficulties with delays in setting anHDTV standard, consumer resistance, andunwise protectionist policies

Source: Jeffrey Hart, BRIE

BUSINESS & FINANCE

Key Factors for Strategy

- Mass vs. Niche Markets

- lnvestment Barriers to Entry

- Regulatory Barriers to Entry

- Economies of Scale -- Staticvs. Dynamic

- ls lntellectual Property ProtectionPossible?

- Will Foreign Competitors Engagein Unfair Trading Practices?

Source: Jetfrey Hart, BRIE

BUSINESS & FINANCE

High Payoff Technologies

Video Compression

lmprovements on SMT

Successors to SMT

Non-CRT Displays -'especially projection

Gallium arsenide for DBS

Video broadband switches

I nterstandard Conversion

lnteractive Video Services

Source: Jeffrey Hart, BHIE

BUSINESS & FINANCE

Niche MarketsThe Next Five Years

- Home Theaters

- Business Video

- Desktop and Workstation Video

- CAD/CAM

- Medical lmaging

F Video-Based CPE

- lnteractive NTSC

- CD-l and DVI

- Open Architecture HDTV

Source: Jeffrey Hart, BRIE

BUSTNESS & FINANCE

JAPANESE ADVANTAGES

. COMMITTED

. ORGANIZED

. LOW COST OF CAPITAL

. MANUFACTURING BASE

O NATIONAL PROGHAM

I CAPTIVE MABKET

. FUNDING CAPACITY

T INTERNATIONAL HECOGNITION

BUSINESS & FTNANCE

HDTV RECEIVER SALES COSTLEARNING CUBVE

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CUIUULATIVE K UNITS PRODUCED

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BUSINESS & FINANCE

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U . S. I'IARKET POSITIONS

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1988 BRAND MAHKET SHAHE OF COLOR TV ,,rr0^*

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