Scientific Research Monitoring on COVID-19

Scientific Research

Monitoring on

COVID-19 15 April 2020

© ADPHC 2020This document was developed by Abu Dhabi Public Health Center - ADPHC. The document is and shall remain the property of ADPHCand may only be used for the purposes for which it was intended. Unauthorized use or reproduction of this document is prohibited.

© 2020مركز أبوظبي للصحة العامة

ويحظر استخدام أو إعادة إنتاج هذه الوثيقة بدون إذن. هذه الوثيقة مملوكة لمركز أبوظبي للصحة العامة، وال يجوز استخدامها لغير األغراض المخصصة لها



ويحظر استخدام أو إعادة إنتاج هذه الوثيقة . هذه الوثيقة مملوكة لمركز أبوظبي للصحة العامة، وال يجوز استخدامها لغير األغراض المخصصة لها

بدون إذن

Summary on COVID19

SARS-COV2 virus

▪ The virus have been sequenced and found to be similar to MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV. Research

revealed that the virus originated in a bat reservoir.

▪ New designation for the disease and the virus: COVID-19 and SARS-COV2.

▪ SARS-COV2 stay viable in aerosol for hours and in surface up to 3 days.

▪ Two strain have been identified for SARS-COV2 (L type (more aggressive ) and S type .

Transmission

▪ Transmission from human to human has been confirmed. Incubation period ranges from 5 days and can

reach up to 14 days.

▪ Suggested human-to-human transmission occurs through droplets, contact and fomites, similar to Severe

Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS).

▪ Isolation is the best measure to control transmission.

▪ Non-specific and the disease presentation can range from no symptoms (asymptomatic) to severe

pneumonia and death.

▪ Highest risk for severe disease and death include people aged over 60 years and those with underlying

conditions

▪ Pregnant women infected with SARS-COV2 may experience symptoms similar to those of non-pregnant

adults. No evidence suggests transmission from mother to newborn if infected late in pregnancy. No

evidence of transmission through breast milk.

Clinical

features and

outcome

Therapies

and

vaccination

▪ Efforts currently in developing therapies for this virus focus on previously known medications and

vaccination for MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV. In addition to other type of medication.

▪ WHO forum held 11-12 Feb 2020 to mobilize research on COVID19 vaccinations and therapies.




بدون إذن

COVID19 in figure

▪ 80% of laboratory confirmed patients have had mild to moderate disease

▪ 13.8% have severe disease.

▪ 6.1% are critical

▪ Children account for 2.4% of all reported cases.(less than 19 years)

Summary on COVID19 (Cont.)

Others

Due to abundant COVID19 information resources and given the urgent need to keep up with the updates .Below is a cluster of other academic

articles for interested reviewer.

Listed articles may represent information that has been previously shared in the report and/or may target specific technical audience.

ScientificResearch

▪Public Health response: article explain the virtual care transformation in multiple

countries in response to COVID 19 pandemic.

▪Virology: three strains of the virus have been discovered using novel method of

analysis that might be a potential tracing tool.

▪Public health response: modelling study analyzing data for 37 countries indicate

that it take countries Three weeks to moderate , Four weeks to control and Over 6 weeks to

contain

All articles presented in this report represents the authors’ views and not necessarily represents Abu Dhabi Public Health

Center views or directions.

Todays’ Highlights




بدون إذن

• Public health concerns and unsubstantiated claims at the intersection of

vaping and COVID-19

• Mental Health and the Covid-19 Pandemic

• Understanding the Dynamics of COVID-19

• Universal Screening for SARS-CoV-2 in Women Admitted for Delivery

https://doi.org/10.1093/ntr/ntaa064

https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMp2008017

https://doi.org/10.1093/ajcp/aqaa060

https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMc2009316

WHO daily report 14 April 2020

WHO daily report




بدون إذن

• No new country/territory/area reported cases of COVID-19 in the past 24 hours.

• The number of confirmed cases reported by countries reflects national laboratory testing capacity and

strategy, thus the interpretation of the number of cases reported should take this into account.

• WHO has published interim guidance on oxygen sources and distribution strategies for COVID-19

treatment. The document describes how to quantify oxygen demand, identify oxygen sources that are

available, and select appropriate surge sources to best respond to COVID-19 patients’ needs, especially in

low-and-middle income countries.

• The Director-General stated in his brief on 14.4.2020 :

• thanked the United Kingdom for its generous contribution of £200 million to the global response to

COVID-19, an act which he described as a ‘demonstration of global solidarity.

• all countries to ensure that where stay-at-home measures are used, they must not be at the expense

of human rights.

• Control measures must be lifted slowly, and with control. It cannot happen all at once.

• A group of scientists, physicians, funders and manufacturers from around the world have pledged to

collaborate, in coordination with WHO, to help speed up the availability of a vaccine against COVID-19.

Figure 1: Total number of infected, recovered , and death cases (January 21st to April 14th , 2020)




Epidemiology

© ADPHC 2020

Line graph published by Abu Dhabi Public Health Center 2020.

Data resources: WHO, : John Hopkins University

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1/21/20 2/5/20 2/20/20 3/6/20 3/21/20

Total number of cases

Recovered

Death

1844863

470747

117021

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Figure 2: Daily new infected COVID-19 cases reported between (January 21 to April 14h, 2020).





Data resources: WHO

Epidemiology

© ADPHC 2020

99

71680

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

21-Jan 5-Feb 20-Feb 6-Mar 21-Mar 5-Apr

China VS outside china

China

outside china





Epidemiology


Data resources: WHO

© ADPHC 2020

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

china

Italy

USA

Spain

Germany

UK

France

rest of the world

Figure 3 : Top 7 countries in the total number of cases due to COVID-19 (January 21 to April 14th, 2020).

2197220465

17489

14946

11329

3351 2969

0

3000

6000

9000

12000

15000

18000

21000

24000

Death cases

TOTAL DEATHS

DEATHS PER MILLION

374

338

229

167

6635

20

100

200

300

400

500

Spain Italy France UK USA Germany China

Per million


Figure 4: Total number of COVID-19 infected and recovered cases in UAE over time





Data resources: WHO, : John Hopkins University

Epidemiology

4 5 927

140

4521

04 5

38

933

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1/2

1/2

0

2/5

/20

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0

3/6

/20

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1/2

0

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https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Figure 5: Total number of death due to COVID-19 reported by China and the rest of the world

(January 21 to April 14th, 2020).





Data resources: WHO

Epidemiology

© ADPHC 2020

3351

113670

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000


China outside China


Figure 6: Global daily new deaths due to COVID-19 (January 21 to April 14th, 2020).





Data resources: WHO

Epidemiology

© ADPHC 2020

5369

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000


Daily new deaths





Map chart published by Abu Dhabi Public Health Center 2020.

EpidemiologyFigure 7a : Global distribution of COVID-19 cases (April 13th, 2020).

More than 5000 cases

From 1001 to 5000 cases



From 1 to 10 cases

No confirmed cases




EpidemiologyFigure 7B: Bar chart illustrate the global distribution of COVID19 cases April 13th, 2020)


Data resources: WHO

More than 5000 cases From 1001 to 5000 cases From 101 to 1000 cases From 11 to 100 cases From 1 to 10 cases

© ADPHC 2020© ADPHC 2020

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EpidemiologyFigure 8: illustrate the Global distribution of COVID19 cases per region (April 14th, 2020)





Data resources: WHO


Data resources: WHO

© ADPHC 2020

AMRO

EURO EMRO WPRO

AFRO SEARO

INFECTED

DEATH

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0

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EpidemiologyFigure 9: Comparative analysis of the distribution of COVID19 cases in GCC countries (April 14th, 2020)





Data resources: WHO

© ADPHC 2020

TOTAL NUMBER OF INFECTED CASES

4934

4521

3231

1362 1300

813889 933

373

645

176 13065 25 7 7 2 4

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

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6000

KSA UAE Qatar Bahrain Kuwait OmanInfected cases Recovered Death

31%

28%

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5%KSA

UAE

Qatar

Kuwait

Bahrain

Oman

Total number of infected, recovered and Deaths

0

500

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4500

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21-Feb-20 28-Feb-20 6-Mar-20 13-Mar-20 20-Mar-20 27-Mar-20 3-Apr-20 10-Apr-20 17-Apr-20

UAE

Bahrain

Kuwait

KSA

Qatar

Oman





Article 1 : Phylogenetic network analysis of SARS-

CoV-2 genomes

Published: April 8 , 2020 in PNAS

Summary:

The article found that there are 3 central variants

(A,B&C) of SARS-COV2 virus after sequencing 160

samples available online in DATA base called GISAID.

The analysis of the research is unique as method used in

identifying the virus called phylogenetic network

analysis ( phylogenies is the evolution of a genetically

related group of organisms as distinguished from the

development of the individual organism.) this method

was used to reconstruct the prehistoric population

movements.

The author suggest this is the time for this method to be

used in virological data to explore how this method can

contribute to an understanding of coronavirus evolution.

Findings:

• Type A: half of the strain from east Asia while the

other half are from outside Asia; mainly in the United

States and Australia.

• Type B : derived from A , mainly in china and East

Asia

• Type C: is derived from type B this is the major

European type

Clinical Features:

Conclusion:

The network faithfully traces routes of infections for

documented coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

cases, indicating that phylogenetic networks can

likewise be successfully used to help trace

undocumented COVID-19 infection sources, which

can then be quarantined to prevent recurrent spread of

the disease worldwide

Figure1: show Phylogenetic network of 160 SARS-CoV-2 genomes

Phylogenetic network analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genomes




Article 2 : Virtual health care in the era of COVID-19

Published: April 11, 2020 by the lancet

Summary: This article explain the virtual care transformation in multiple countries:

Public Health Response:

China: Patients were advised to seek physicians' help online

rather than in person after the pandemic first emerged in

Wuhan in December. China's virtual care transformation was

unleashed when the Country's National Health Insurance

agency agreed to pay for virtual care consultations because the

hospitals and clinics were full.

US: The majority of patient consultations in the United States

are now happening virtually. A very big moment for virtual

health care but there isn't a lot of readiness. There are so many

ways to monitor people's health that we aren't doing at any

scale, in large part due to interstate regulatory barriers.

Canada: Racing to implement virtual health-care technologies

as quickly as we can confront [COVID-19]. The scale and

pace of change is unprecedented for Canadian health care.

UK: Video conferencing in Scotland over the past 6 months,

and in the space of the last 2 weeks we've seen 1000%

increase in use. The risk–benefit ratio for virtual health care

has massively shifted and all the red tape has suddenly been

cut.

Italy: 20 regions had implemented national telemedicine

guidelines as of 2018.But still Many Italian hospitals lack the

necessary hardware and technical resource.. About 90% on fixed

landlines and 40% on mobile networks in Italy. We have to ramp

up telemedicine capabilities, but for most hospitals in Italy this is

an issue. Just don't have the capabilities to deliver.

Germany: the COVID-19 pandemic is highlighting a need for

intensified IT collaboration between German hospitals.

India: Indian health-care providers have become similarly

preoccupied with virtual health care while the country is in near-

total lockdown. After years of resistance to virtual health care, our

physicians keenly want. India’s response to COVID-19 escalates,

many private physicians are providing virtual consultations for

free. Meanwhile, the national and state governments will need

some time to ramp this up.

Africa: African health-care providers have yet to join the global

rush. Digital health technologies are being adopted at a huge rate

now here in South Africa in response to [COVID-19]”, via video

conference from Cape Town. They’re not seeing much adoption

yet elsewhere in Africa. [COVID-19] may accelerate it, but it's too

soon to say.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30818-7/fulltext




Public Health Response:

Article: How Long Should Social Distancing Last? Predicting Time to Moderation, Control, and

Containment of COVID-19

Published: March 31 2020 by SSRN

Summary:

Question:

Social distancing and lockdowns – For how long? This

article try to answer this important question through:

Two metrics:

1) Daily growth rate = Percentage increase in total cases.

2) Time to double or doubling time, is the number of days

for total cases to double at the current growth rate.

Two Actions:

1) Stay at home or lockdown orders (e.g., China, Italy)

2) Massive testing and quarantine (e.g., Japan, South

Korea)

And Three Outcomes:

1) Moderation: when growth rate stays below 10% and

doubling time stays above 7 days

2) Control: when growth rate stays below 1% and doubling

time stays above 70 days.

3) Containment: when growth rate stays below 0.1% and

doubling time stays above 700 days.

Conclusion:

Analyzing data from 37 countries, the results are:

• Countries take an average of about three weeks to act

• After aggressive actions (lockdowns, testing) for

spread of disease, countries take an average of about:

▪ Three weeks to moderate

▪ Four weeks to control

▪ Over 6 weeks to contain

This article was summarized by expert subject matter

This articles have not been peer-reviewed , therefore , it should not be used for clinical decision making or reporting of research to a lay

audience

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3562996

Documents

Scientific Research Monitoring on COVID-19