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VICTORIA’S GRADUATED
LICENSING SYSTEM EVALUATION INTERIM REPORT
For
VicRoads
Prepared by
David Healy, David Healy Road Safety Consulting
John Catchpole, ARRB Group
Warren Harrison, Eastern Professional Services
February 2012
Acknowledgements
This report was prepared by David Healy
with consultant contributions by
Warren Harrison, Eastern Professional Services
and
John Catchpole, ARRB Group.
We acknowledge the assistance of Victoria Pyta from ARRB Group in providing data contributions.
VicRoads has organised and commissioned the data collection and evaluation of the Graduated Licensing System program. This report was managed by the Road User
Behaviour team, Road Safety and Network Access, VicRoads.
Sponsoring Organisation
This report was prepared for VicRoads.
Disclaimer
This report is disseminated in the interests of information exchange. The views expressed here are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of VicRoads.
Copyright
This work is the copyright of VicRoads. The content of this report may not be reproduced without the written permission of the Manager – Road User Behaviour, VicRoads.
ISBN: 978-0-7311-9179-6
CONTENTS
SUMMARY........................................................................................................................................................... I
BACKGROUND................................................................................................................................................... 1
OVERVIEW OF THE GRADUATED LICENSING SYSTEM (GLS) PROGRAM.............................................................. 1 IMPETUS FOR THE GLS ....................................................................................................................................... 2 EVIDENCE FOR THE GLS AS AN EFFECTIVE INTERVENTION................................................................................. 3
THE GLS PROGRAM......................................................................................................................................... 5
INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................................... 5 REQUIREMENTS FOR LEARNER PERMIT HOLDERS................................................................................................ 5 REQUIREMENTS TO OBTAIN A PROBATIONARY LICENCE ..................................................................................... 5 REQUIREMENTS FOR PROBATIONARY LICENCE HOLDERS.................................................................................... 6 PENALTIES FOR DRINK DRIVING OFFENCES ......................................................................................................... 7 SUPPORT PROGRAMS........................................................................................................................................... 7
GLS SUPPORT .................................................................................................................................................... 8
CONSULTATIVE PROCESS .................................................................................................................................... 8 REGULATORY IMPACT STATEMENT PROCESS AND ESTIMATED BENEFIT ............................................................. 8
Introduction................................................................................................................................................... 8 Economic benefits ......................................................................................................................................... 8 Social benefits ............................................................................................................................................... 9 Environmental impacts ................................................................................................................................. 9
EVALUATION OF THE GLS – METHODS AND APPROACH................................................................. 10
LEARNER DRIVER BEHAVIOUR - INTERIM EVALUATION RESULTS ............................................ 11
INTRODUCTION AND METHOD........................................................................................................................... 11 KEY INTERIM RESULTS...................................................................................................................................... 11
Total hours of driving experience (supervised practice plus lessons)......................................................... 11 Duration of learner period.......................................................................................................................... 12
OTHER KEY FINDINGS ....................................................................................................................................... 13 120 hour requirement.................................................................................................................................. 13 Mobile phones ............................................................................................................................................. 13 Recording practice ...................................................................................................................................... 14 Carrying a learner permit........................................................................................................................... 14
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS.......................................................................................................................... 14
PROBATIONARY DRIVER BEHAVIOUR – INTERIM EVALUATION RESULTS .............................. 16
INTRODUCTION AND METHOD........................................................................................................................... 16 KEY INTERIM RESULTS...................................................................................................................................... 16
Risky driving behaviours............................................................................................................................. 16 Traffic Offences........................................................................................................................................... 17 GLS requirements ....................................................................................................................................... 18
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS.......................................................................................................................... 20
CRASH TRENDS – INTERIM EVALUATION RESULTS .......................................................................... 21
INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................................. 21 METHOD........................................................................................................................................................... 21 PROBATIONARY DRIVER CRASHES .................................................................................................................... 22 CARRIAGE OF PEER PASSENGERS ...................................................................................................................... 26 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS.......................................................................................................................... 30
DISCUSSION...................................................................................................................................................... 31
CONCLUSIONS................................................................................................................................................. 33
APPENDIX A – SUPPORT PROGRAMS TO ADDRESS THE YOUNG DRIVER CRASH PROBLEM35
i
SUMMARY In response to the significant over-involvement of novice drivers in casualty crashes on Victoria’s roads, a new Graduated Licensing Scheme (GLS) was introduced in stages, the first key phase commencing 1 January 2007.
The new program represented the culmination of consultation with experts, a comprehensive review of the literature and a detailed analysis of crash trends involving beginning drivers in Victoria. Importantly, a community consultation phase was conducted that gave rise to strong community support for the key components of the new GLS.
Key elements of the new GLS include:
1. 1 July 2007
A minimum 12 months learner permit and a minimum of 120 hours of on-road supervised driving experience as a learner for those aged under 21 yrs at the time of licensing.
A requirement to carry the learner permit when learning to drive.
A ban on using a mobile phone (hand-held or hands-free) when learning to drive.
New high-powered vehicle restrictions for probationary drivers.
2. 1 July 2008
An increase of the probationary period from three to four years (P1 for one year and P2 for three years) for those aged under 21 yrs at the time of licensing.
A ban on any mobile phone use by P1 drivers.
P1 drivers are restricted from carrying more than one peer passenger (16 to 21 years).
A requirement for a good driving record to graduate between P1 and P2 and between P2 and a full licence.
Extension of zero blood alcohol concentration (BAC) requirement from three to four years to align with the P1 and P2 licence phases.
A new Drive Test to help identify those licence applicants who have met the 120 hour requirement and can demonstrate key safe driving capabilities for solo driving.
A range of support program measures to influence the desired behaviour change.
From 1 January 2007, also introduced were tough drink-drive sanctions for young and probationary drivers.
In order to measure the impact of the new GLS upon driver behaviour and safety on Victoria’s roads, an evaluation framework was established to both assess broad trends in road trauma as well as to understand the changes in behaviour linked to the new GLS that could help to explain those trends.
Accordingly, two series of surveys were conducted with learner and probationary drivers under the old and new GLS in order to measure learner and probationary driver experience, exposure and driving behaviours. In parallel, an analysis of casualty crash data was
ii
conducted to identify key trends in serious road trauma involving novice drivers before, during and after introduction of the GLS.
A set of interim results are provided below. The results are preliminary only and examine the crash involvements of drivers in their first year of probationary driving experience before and after the introduction of the GLS. The accompanying series of surveys is not yet complete and the timeframe in which casualty crash data is to be collected does not close until 2014, with analysis to follow.
Key behavioural results from the learner driver surveys include:
The number of hours of supervised driving practice for 17 and 18 year olds (at the time of learner permit acquisition) has approximately doubled over the survey period while the corresponding trend for 16 year olds (at the time of learner permit acquisition) has been relatively stable at high levels (over 120 hours). This indicates learners have been generally following the new GLS rule.
The duration of the learner permit period in weeks has increased in each age level between 2000 and 2010. The Learner Permit holding period increased most noticeably with the introduction in 2007 of a new minimum holding period for a permit of 12 months (previously six months) for those aged less than 21 years at time of licensing. This result indicates the increased minimum period for holding a learner permit under the new GLS is working among these learners.
Less than 5% of learners used a mobile phone whilst learning to drive (either hand-held, hands-free or texting). This indicates learners were generally following the new GLS rule.
There has been a substantial increase in the proportion of learners recording their practice in the years since the introduction of the GLS; a high proportion use the official Learner Log Book (90% of learners in 2010). This indicates learners were generally following the new GLS rule.
The majority of learners always carried their learner permit during practice drives, indicating they were following the new GLS rule.
Key behavioural results from the surveys of probationary drivers found:
Risky behaviours became more likely as experience increased, but post-GLS drivers did not engage in risky driving behaviours more often than the pre-GLS drivers. The only differences between the two groups were that hands-free phone use was less common for post-GLS drivers (consistent with the new rules about hands-free phone use) and SMS use and driving when tired were more common for post-GLS drivers.
Post-GLS drivers reported fewer traffic offences involving speeding, hand-held phone use and P plate use than pre-GLS drivers. The number of offences declined with increasing driving experience.
The post-GLS group reported a much higher amount of learner driver experience than the pre-GLS group (consistent with the new rule requiring 120 hours of driving experience) – a result that is broadly consistent with that derived from the more comprehensive learner driver surveys
Post-GLS drivers were much less likely to carry more than one peer-aged passenger in the first and second surveys.
iii
Analysis of available crash data has indicated that at this early stage the changes to the GLS have been accompanied by a significant reduction in the crash involvement of newly licensed probationary licence holders. It should be noted that the analysis has excluded data from the 2008/09 financial year which is characterised by a mix of first year drivers subject and not subject to the provisions of the new GLS and in order to mitigate the impact of increased numbers of licences in the lead up to and decreased numbers immediately post the introduction of the final phase of the GLS in July 2008. Key results include:
a significant reduction of 23% in the casualty crash involvement of drivers (aged 18-20 when first licensed) in the first year of holding a probationary licence when compared with a control group, equating to a saving of approximately 240 involvements per annum
a significant reduction of 31% in the fatal and serious injury crash involvement of drivers (aged 18-20 when first licensed) in the first year of holding a probationary licence when compared with a control group, equating to a saving of approximately 75 involvements per annum
a significant reduction of 16% in the casualty crash involvement of drivers (aged 18-20 when first licensed) in the first 9 months of the second year of holding a probationary licence, equating to a saving of approximately 75 involvements per annum
a non-significant reduction of 13% in the fatal and serious injury crash involvements of drivers (aged 18-20 when first licensed) in the first 9 months of their second year of a probationary licence
a significant reduction in the proportion of casualty crash involvements (57%) and fatal and serious injury crash involvements (58%) of target drivers (aged 18-20 years when first licensed) carrying two or more peer passengers in their first year of holding a probationary licence; these percentage reductions equate to approximate savings of 70 and 25 involvements respectively per annum.
A range of tasks remain to be undertaken to complete a comprehensive evaluation of the impact of the GLS changes on crash involvement. A full evaluation is not possible until new drivers experience all aspects of the new scheme which includes an extended four year probationary period. Tasks include:
considering the impact of longer term steady state numbers of new licence applicants associated with introduction of the new scheme; this analysis is important given the increase in new licensees in the lead up to introduction of the new GLS and the reduction in numbers immediately following its introduction
further analysis of crash involvement once a substantial cohort of drivers licensed under the new GLS provisions have completed the probationary period and graduated to a full licence
accumulation of additional crash data so that the impact of the GLS on fatal crashes can be examined
investigation of the impact of the GLS on the crash involvement of learner permit holders and unlicensed novice drivers
collection of further survey data from probationary and learner drivers.
In summary, introduction of the new GLS has been accompanied by promising outcomes in terms of self-reported changes in key behaviours and offence rates and in terms of
iv
reductions in casualty crash and serious casualty crash involvements. The full impact of the new GLS can only be determined once a cohort of young drivers have passed through the four years of the new probationary period and short-term changes in the numbers of new licensees moderate and return to a “steady state” condition.
1
BACKGROUND
Overview of the Graduated Licensing System (GLS) program Victoria has one of the safest road transport systems nationally and world-wide. However, despite recent Victorian reductions in the road toll, young drivers aged 18-25 years continued to be over-represented in road crashes in comparison with older, more experienced drivers in the early 2000s. Probationary drivers are involved in crashes at triple the rate of experienced drivers. One third of the road toll results from crashes involving drivers aged 18 – 25 years, with approximately 90 people killed, 2,200 seriously injured and more than 6,000 people injured, costing the community over $1 billion in road trauma annually. Newly licensed first year probationary drivers operate at the highest risk.
In response to the young driver problem, VicRoads reviewed international evidence that pointed to a graduated licensing approach as an effective means of easing young drivers into the full range of driving conditions as their experience grows.
Victoria’s first GLS was introduced in 1990 – it introduced, among other initiatives, longer learner permit periods, an extension to the probationary period from two to three years and a passenger restriction for offenders whose licence is cancelled or suspended in the first 12 months accompanied by an extended probationary period.
As part of a community consultation process, a Young Driver Safety Discussion Paper was released in 2005 with some 400,000 brochures distributed in a number of community languages and 26 community discussion sessions held. The process resulted in strong community support being posted for the measures proposed for introduction as part of the new Graduated Licensing Scheme.
Against a background of strong community support, the current GLS was introduced progressively in three phases commencing in 1 January 2007 with the final phase introduced on 1 July 2008. Its central purpose was to tackle the over-representation of young drivers in serious crashes. Through the new GLS, young drivers are eased into driving through a safer, evidence-based graduated system. The GLS addresses the key crash risks and behavioural issues for this group, and encourages young drivers to adopt critical safety behaviours.
The first suite of components of the new GLS was introduced on 1 January 2007. These included compulsory:
alcohol interlock measures for probationary drink drivers under the age of 26 as a condition of licence restoration.
carriage of licence for all drivers under the age of 26.
A second suite of components introduced on 1 July 2007, included:
A minimum 12 months learner permit period and a minimum of 120 hours on-road supervised driving experience as a learner (for those under the age of 21 years of age).
A requirement to carry the learner permit when learning to drive.
A ban on any mobile phone use when learning to drive.
New high powered vehicle restrictions for P-platers.
2
The final series of measures of the new GLS introduced on 1 July 2008 comprised:
Increasing the probationary period from three to four years (P1 for one year and P2 for three years) for those licensed under 21 years and, for those licensed at 22 years or over to move straight to P2.
A ban on any mobile phone use by P1 drivers.
A ban on towing by P1 drivers (unless for work or if under instruction).
A requirement for a good driving record to graduate from P1 to P2 and to graduate from P2 to a full licence.
P1 drivers are restricted from carrying more than one peer passenger (aged between 16 and 21). Allowances were made to carry family members, and when accompanied by a fully licensed driver (as is the case for learner drivers) and for essential activities.
Extension of the zero blood alcohol requirement from three to four years aligned with the P1 and P2 licences.
On 1 July 2008, a new 30 minute drive test was also introduced to help identify those licence applicants who have met the 120 hour requirement and can demonstrate safe driving capabilities for driving solo. The new test is longer and more challenging than the previous test. It requires licence applicants to demonstrate safe driving skills in a wide range of traffic environments.
A range of important support program measures to influence and support desired behaviour change were also implemented. These include targeted programs and materials to assist novice drivers, parents and driving instructors as well as the L2P learner driver mentor program for disadvantaged learners.
As well as reducing the involvement of novice drivers in casualty crashes, the changes to the GLS are expected to result in changes in the accumulation of experience by learner permit holders, changes in the exposure of novice drivers to risk and a reduction in risky driving behaviours by novice drivers. A comprehensive evaluation, using data from a variety of sources, has been put in place to assess whether the changes to the GLS are successful in achieving the aims for which they were designed and to monitor any other changes in behaviour or crash outcomes that may result. This report provides interim GLS evaluation results only.
Impetus for the GLS Victoria has achieved substantial reductions in deaths and serious injury in recent years as a result of introducing several important evidence-based measures under successive road safety strategies. The road toll has dropped from 444 deaths in 2001 to 337 in 2006 before the GLS was introduced, and was 287 deaths last year (2011).
Despite these dramatic improvements, young and inexperienced drivers remain significantly over-involved in casualty crashes compared with their older more experienced counterparts (Figure 1). In fact, probationary drivers were involved in casualty crashes (fatal, serious and other injury crashes) at triple the rate of experienced drivers (Figure 2).
3
Age of drivers involved in casualty crashes Victoria 2006-2010
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4 10 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38 41 44 47 50 53 56 59 62 65 68 71 74 77 80 83 86 89 92 95
Driver age
No
. o
f d
rive
rs i
n c
rash
es
Figure 1: Age of drivers involved in casualty crashes 2006 to 2010
Figure 2: Probationary driver risk of crashing (source: VicRoads Young Driver Safety and Graduated Licensing Discussion Paper based on the study ‘The risks of crashing while driving around
Melbourne’)
It was against this background of a continuing, significant over-representation of young and inexperienced drivers in casualty crashes and associated costs that the potential for an improved Graduated Licensing Scheme was assessed.
Evidence for the GLS as an effective intervention A GLS is founded on the proposition that a structured approach in which novice drivers are exposed in a graduated manner to increasingly demanding driving settings as their experience and skills develop will significantly improve their safety on-road.
4
A variety of graduated licensing schemes based on this proposition have been adopted in New Zealand, Canada and most US states. Key features of these schemes have included extended supervised learner periods, passenger restrictions with exemptions, late night driving restrictions with exemptions, zero blood alcohol limits and progression through licensing stages contingent on good driving records. The driving age in most of these jurisdictions can be as low as 16 years. Crash reductions have been experienced in these jurisdictions.
Apart from the overall impact of GLS schemes, research and evaluation studies pointed to the following as important means of reducing the potential for beginning drivers to be involved in crashes:
Extended learning periods and increased supervised on-road driving practice as a learner to build up experience and safe driving capabilities to better meet the demands of solo driving
decreased distractions at a time when the driver is just beginning to develop key safe driving capabilities
reduced workloads at a time when the driver is just beginning to develop key safe driving capabilities
reduced exposure at a time when drivers are operating at very high risks
increased motivation to drive safely through the requirement for a good driving record to progress to a full licence.
As a result of a comprehensive review of the literature, an analysis of crash trends in Victoria together with consultation with key experts in the field, a new graduated licensing scheme was proposed comprising a package of integrated measures that best evidence pointed to as an influential means of improving the safety of novice drivers in Victoria.
5
THE GLS PROGRAM
Introduction Changes to the 1990 GLS were made in 2006, 2007 and 2008. The new GLS and support programs aim to improve young driver safety by:
Increasing the base level of experience to better equip learners with the capabilities needed to drive solo.
Assessing the key safe driving capabilities required to drive solo in a variety of common driving conditions.
Reducing driving exposure, especially that represent a high risk for novice drivers.
Increasing awareness of key risks and actively supporting adoption of personal safety strategies to manage risks.
Providing motivation for safe driving behaviour and deterring speeding and other high risk driving behaviour.
Promoting responsible and safe practices by younger drivers, including to not drink and drive, and to not drive unnecessarily at night.
Promoting the purchase of safer vehicles by young drivers.
The general requirements for learners and probationary licence holders are described in the following sections.
Requirements for learner permit holders The requirements of learner permit holders are as follows (if the requirement was introduced as part of the new GLS, an introduction date is provided):
The learner is subject to a zero BAC, must be supervised by a fully licensed driver with a BAC under 0.05, must display L plates, no towing, five or more demerit points in a 12 month period or 12 points or more in three years may result in a permit suspension.
The learner permit must be carried at all times when driving (introduced 1 July 2007).
No mobile phone, whether hand-held or hands-free, may be used while driving (introduced 1 July 2007).
Requirements to obtain a probationary licence In order to graduate from a learner permit to a probationary licence, learner drivers who are aged less than 21 years at the time of applying for a probationary licence are now required to:
1. have held the learner permit for at least 12 months (up from 6 months previously)
2. present the official VicRoads Learner Log Book signed by the learner and supervisor showing that the learner has acquired at least 120 hours of supervised driving experience, including at least 10 hours driving at night.
6
These new requirements apply to drivers who obtained a learner permit from 1 July 2007 onwards.
Other requirements in force before 1 July 2007 for learners applying for a probationary licence (minimum age 18 and pass the Hazard Perception Test) continue to apply.
All learners applying for a probationary licence, regardless of age, are required to pass the on-road Drive Test. This new test was introduced on 1 July 2008 and replaced the POLA (Programmed Observation Licence Assessment) test that had been in place since 1994. A large-sample trial (1,300 learners over three stages of test development) of the new test has shown that it provides a reliable assessment of driving experience and safety-related driving ability.
Requirements for probationary licence holders The probationary licence was divided into a P1 stage of at least one year and a P2 stage of at least three years from 1 July 2008. Drivers aged under 21 years when acquiring a probationary licence are required to complete the P1 stage before entering the P2 stage, which means the time spent on a probationary licence increased from the previous three years to at least four years for these drivers. Drivers aged 21 years or more when acquiring a probationary licence go straight to the P2 stage without first completing a P1 stage.
Drivers in the P1 stage are subject to all of the previous probationary licence requirements of zero BAC, compulsory carriage of licence, requirements to display P plates, if tested in an automatic vehicle may only drive an automatic vehicle, five or more demerit points in a 12 month period or 12 points in three years may result in a permit suspension.
P1 drivers are also subject to these new additional requirements:
No more than one peer passenger (16-21 years) while driving
No mobile phone use, whether hand-held or hands-free, while driving.
Towing is not permitted (unless for work or under instruction).
Certain high-powered vehicles may not be driven.
Any licence suspension, drink driving offence with BAC less than 0.05 or drug driving offence will result in an extension of the P1 period by six months plus the period of the suspension, and a passenger restriction will be applied for the balance of the P1 period.
Drivers in the P2 stage are subject to all of the current previous licence requirements (zero BAC, compulsory carriage of licence, requirements to display P plates), plus restrictions on driving high powered vehicles. Drivers remain in the P2 stage for at least three years before graduating to a full licence. Any licence suspension, drink driving offence with BAC less than 0.05 or drug driving offence will result in an extension of the P2 period by six months plus the period of the suspension.
Victoria first introduced high powered vehicle regulations for probationary drivers in 1990. This prohibited probationary drivers from driving vehicles with:
a power to mass ratio which exceeds 125 kilowatts per tonne; or
an engine capacity which exceeds 3.5 litres per tonne of the unladen mass (tare) of the motor vehicle.
7
However, this was difficult to calculate by drivers and difficult to enforce so a simpler system was brought in based on engine characteristics on 1 July 2007:
an engine that has eight or more cylinders, or
a turbocharged or supercharged engine (except diesel powered vehicles or exempted low powered turbo vehicles), or
an engine that has been modified to increase the vehicle's performance (other than a modification made by the manufacturer in the course of the manufacture of the vehicle) or
a nominated high performance six cylinder engine.
Penalties for drink driving offences There are two changes to penalties for drink driving offences:
Any probationary licence holder and any full licence holder aged less than 26 years who is convicted of a drink driving offence with a BAC greater than or equal to 0.07 g / 100 mL, even if it is the driver’s first drink driving offence, will be required to fit an alcohol ignition interlock to their vehicle for at least 6 months when relicensed.
Any full licence holder aged less than 26 years who is convicted of a drink driving offence with a BAC greater than or equal to 0.05 g / 100 mL will have their licence cancelled.
These changes came into effect on 1 January 2007.
Support programs The package announced in June 2006 included the following new or improved support programs for learner permit holders:
a publicity campaign (print and online media) targeting newly licensed drivers and the changed GLS rules
a new 120 hour Learner Kit with a Learner Log Book (commenced July 2007)
expansion of the Keys Please parent-learner program (commenced July 2007)
expansion of the Lsite interactive web site (some improvements made mid-2007, further improvements currently being undertaken in 2011)
updated guidance from VicRoads to commercial driving instructors regarding the new requirements for learner permit holders and probationary licence candidates (delivered mid-2007) and the Driver Test (delivered March 2008)
introduction of the L2P – Learner Driver Mentor Program, a community-based volunteer mentor program to assist disadvantaged learners to get 120 hours of supervised driving experience (pilot programs commenced in 2007, wider availability since 2008)
the Probationary Kit provided to all probationary drivers when they obtain their licence to encourage them to minimise their risks e.g. by driving less at night and not carrying multiple passengers (includes a brochure for P drivers and a separate brochure for their parents).
Further details on support programs are outlined in Appendix A.
8
GLS SUPPORT
Consultative process A Young Driver Safety and Graduated Licensing Discussion Paper was distributed to road safety stakeholders and members of the public for comment in August 2005. The community was invited to attend public information sessions and encouraged to make written submissions by November 2005. The Discussion Paper addressed the improvements to the graduated licensing system that are proposed here, as well as the support programs that will be implemented at the same time to assist young drivers, their parents, and driving instructors. The Discussion Paper was widely disseminated with supporting brochures and publicity. This included 20,000 copies of the Discussion Paper, 400,000 copies of brochures in a number of community languages, electorate mail-outs by Members of Parliament, and print and local radio publicity.
The paper received a high level of support for the new measures across all interested groups, including young people.
Responses were generally positive, with 80% supporting the mandatory 120 hour requirement.
Written responses were received from 765 members of the public, with responses to most measures being generally positive.
Responses were received from 59 stakeholder organisations. These were generally positive, with no pattern of negative responses that might suggest consistent disagreement with the proposals.
Upon receipt of the recommended new GLS and responses to the public consultation, the Premier announced that the GLS changes would be made (Media release Thursday 22 June 2006) as another element of the Government’s arrive alive! Road Safety Strategy 2002-2007.
Regulatory Impact Statement process and estimated benefit
Introduction
A Regulatory Impact Statement (RIS) prepared for the GLS was published in November 2007 in order to effect the regulatory changes required. The key areas of investigation were economic and social benefits, and potential environmental impacts.
Economic benefits
The RIS found that while the total cost of the new graduated licensing system is expected to cost the community $7.8 million in Year 1, $12.3 million in Year 2 and $20.8 million per year from Year 3, the package of regulatory measures - once all stages are in operation - has an estimated Net Present Value of between $322.8 million and $377.9 million over 10 years. These benefits primarily occur due to the reduced cost to the community associated with reductions in vehicle crash involvement by young drivers estimated on average each year in the long term to be:
12 fewer people killed per year
192 fewer people seriously injured per year
596 fewer people with ‘other’ injuries per year.
9
There should also be additional economic benefits arising from the use of various GLS/young driver support material for example, material on choosing a safer car.
Social benefits
The package of current GLS licensing measures was expected to provide the following social benefits.
Increased compliance with the road rules by young drivers who are subject to the stricter requirements and have greater motivation to comply.
The extended learner requirements may also benefit the social interaction between young drivers and other adults while supervising their driving.
Nevertheless, the primary social benefit of the GLS lies with in the reduction of crashes and the associated pain and suffering.
Environmental impacts
The current GLS initiatives were not expected to have any significant environmental impacts. While 120 hours may impose additional driving on learners who may in the past not have undertaken such driving, it is anticipated that much of such driving would normally be with parents while undertaking normal driving activities (driving to school, shops, sporting and other social activities).
While two or more passengers may be prevented from travelling in a single vehicle (potentially leading to the use of multiple vehicles to travel to a single destination), it was anticipated that this impact would be minimal. Less than nine percent of probationary driving involves two or more passengers and multiple passengers are still permitted if they are siblings, if there is a fully licensed passenger in the vehicle or if an exemption is obtained for work or other purposes.
10
EVALUATION OF THE GLS – METHODS AND APPROACH A critical element of the GLS program is its evaluation. Given the level of investment in the program and the substantive changes that were introduced into the licensing system as part of the new program, great care was taken in developing an evaluation design to validly and reliably measure the most important indicators of program success.
A panel of international experts (involved in evaluating graduated licensing initiatives in overseas jurisdictions) was consulted to ensure that best practice was being adopted and importantly that the evaluation was well placed to assess those program outcomes that would be most influential in improving the safety of novice drivers in Victoria.
The aim of the evaluation is to compare the road safety situation in Victoria following the GLS changes with the road safety situation that would have existed if the changes had not been made. In order to allow for the changing influence of extraneous factors (such as the economy, enforcement patterns and road safety campaigns) between the before and after periods, the evaluation includes a comparison/control driver group that is as closely matched as possible to the target driver group that is expected to exhibit the consequences of the GLS changes.
The current GLS requirements only apply to new learners and probationary drivers progressively entering the system after the laws came into effect. Therefore, currently there is a mix of novice drivers under the old and new system. It will take a number of years for all new novice drivers to move through the new system in order to gain a full measure of the impact of the whole package of GLS changes. Crash based analysis also requires a post-implementation phase which is long enough to assess whether there are changes in crash rates. It is therefore anticipated that the evaluation project will run for at least six years from mid-2008 when the final GLS components were introduced.
The approach to the evaluation reflects the need to understand both the overall trends in crash numbers involving novice drivers as well as the behavioural responses to each of the influential components introduced as part of the new GLS. An analysis of crash numbers alone would be insufficient to disentangle the individual GLS effects.
The three key streams of evaluation activity are as follows:
Learner driver behaviour:
A series of surveys of learner drivers under the old and new GLS regarding learner driver experience, crashes, exposure and driving behaviours known as the Learner Monitor surveys.
Probationary driver behaviour:
A series of surveys of probationary drivers under the old and new GLS regarding learner and probationary driver experience, crashes, exposure and driving behaviours.
Overall crash trends:
Casualty crash trends for those exposed and not exposed to the new GLS.
While the series of surveys is incomplete to date and the timeframe within which casualty crash data is to be collected does not close until 2014, a set of interim results are provided in this report in order to provide indicative evidence with regard to the impact of the new GLS upon behaviours and trends in road trauma.
11
LEARNER DRIVER BEHAVIOUR - INTERIM EVALUATION RESULTS
Introduction and method Novice drivers are over-represented in crashes in their first years of solo driving. However, higher levels of supervised driving are associated with decreased crash risk in the first years of solo driving. Over the last decade in Victoria, road safety stakeholders have been actively encouraging increased amounts of supervised driving (e.g. 120 hours campaigns) and these levels have been measured through the Learner Monitor Surveys.
The Learner Monitor survey has been tracking changes in driving experience (both supervised driving and driving lessons) accumulated by learner permit holders since 1999. The surveys have occurred in 1999, 2000, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010.
Each year that the Learner Monitor survey is conducted, a cross-section of around 1300 learner drivers at different stages of learning to drive, and 200 newly licensed drivers are surveyed. The sample is a stratified sample from the Victorian driver licensing database. Information is collected using two questionnaires (one for learner drivers and one for newly-licensed drivers). Each wave of the survey has been conducted using computer-assisted telephone interviewing. Total hours of supervised driving experience (including professional instruction) over the whole learner permit period are estimated from the information provided by survey respondents.
Key interim results
Total hours of driving experience (supervised practice plus lessons)
Table 1 shows the estimated average number of hours of driving experience for each survey cohort between 2000 and 2010, by age at which the participant obtained their learner permit. As the hours of supervised practice generally make up close to 90% of the total hours of driving experience, the trends for total driving experience generally reflect the total hours of supervised driving experience. The spike for the 19 to 20 year old age group in 2007 is an anomaly that is most likely explained by the small sample size for that age group.
Table 1: Average hours of driving experience over the whole learner permit period by age at learner permit acquisition and year of survey
Age at learner permit acquisition 2000 2004 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010
16 years 121.9 124.8 134.1 129.9 127.1 122.1 127.4
17 years 62.8 71.0 68.3 78.0 103.1 116.3 105.5
18 years 60.4 50.0 69.5 68.0 68.6 91.8 126.9
19 and 20 years 30.4 71.4 71.8 146.9 87.0 66.9 103.1
Average (weighted) 94.0 99.1 106.9 112.0 114.3 118.9 120.0
While relatively small sample sizes can account for some of the year-on-year variability in hours of driving experience, it should be noted from Table 1 that:
12
o Hours of driving experience changed little for the 16 year old group, as they were achieving 120 hours of supervised driving practice before the introduction of the new GLS as a result of prior promotional campaigns
o Hours of driving experience increased significantly for the 17 and 18 year old groups after the introduction of the GLS
o The small number sampled of 19 and 20 year olds is likely to explain the large annual variations shown in Table 1.
A review of numbers taking out licences by age at which the learner permit was acquired suggests that those who take out a permit at 16 years constitute the majority of licensees aged 18 to 20 years. The groups who showed the largest increases in supervised driving hours, those aged 17 and 18 years at learner permit, do represent about 17% of new licensees aged 18 to 20 years and so subject to the requirements of the new GLS from 1 July 2008.
Duration of learner period
Table 2 and Figure 3 illustrate that the estimated average duration of the learner permit period in weeks has increased in each age level from 2000 until 2010 among those aged 16 years and above. There have been higher increases in the learner permit duration per year since the introduction of the requirement for those aged less than 21 years at the time of licensing to hold the permit for 12 months (previously six months). This requirement was introduced on 1 July 2007 and appears to be making a difference.
Table 2: Average duration of learner permit period in weeks
Age 2000 2004 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010
16 years 101.0 101.7 102.8 104.7 104.2 104.4 109.3
17 years 58.2 66.3 67.8 71.6 88.7 91.4 98.6
18 years 69.8 69.0 71.6 76.8 96.1 100.8 109.0
19 and 20 years
70.0 71.2 74.6 79.2 93.7 102.4 102.1
Average 86.7 89.5 91.4 95.0 101.0 102.5 107.6
13
Figure 3: Average duration of the learner permit period in weeks by age at learner permit acquisition and year of survey
Other key findings
120 hour requirement
The first survey after the 120 hour requirement was introduced occurred in 2008. At the time of this survey, at least 92% of participants who were younger than 20 and in their first 13 weeks of learning to drive (Stage 1) understood that they must accumulate 120 hours of practice before they would be eligible to apply for their probationary licence. In 2009 and 2010, 95% and 94% of relevant learners understood the requirement.
Mobile phones
In 2008 and 2009, participants were asked whether they had used a hands-free mobile phone in their practice drives in the last seven days leading up to the survey. A very small percentage of respondents indicated that they had used a hands-free mobile phone during their practice drives in the last week (1–3% in 2008 and 2009). There were no consistent differences between learners of different ages between the survey years.
In 2010, the questions on mobile phone use changed from:
asking about mobile use in the last seven days to asking about mobile use across the whole learner permit period
asking about hands-free mobile use to also asking about hand-held mobile phone use and composing text messages while driving.
The proportion of newly-licensed participants reporting that they had ever used a mobile phone during a practice drive as a learner was 2% for both hand-held and hands-free devices. Participants who had obtained the learner permit at 18 years or older were more likely to say that they had ever used a mobile phone (whether hand-held or hands-free) during their learner permit period.
14
Approximately 4% of newly-licensed participants reported that they had read or composed a text message while driving as a learner.
Recording practice
There have been substantial increases in the percentage of learner drivers recording their practice in the years since the introduction of the GLS. Survey results indicate that the numbers recording their practice sessions in the first three months of their permits increased from approximately 65% pre-GLS to 85% immediately post-GLS. Of those respondents who kept a record of their driving practice, more than 90% recorded their practice in the official VicRoads Learner Log Book once the new GLS requirement was introduced. It should be noted that some learner drivers post-GLS would not have been subject to the 120 hour requirement had they gained their learner permit before 1 July 2007.
Carrying a learner permit
Since 2008, survey participants have also been asked how frequently they carried their learner permit during practice drives in the last week. A majority of respondents replied that they had always carried their learner permit during practice drives in the last week, across all stages of the learner permit period.
Table 3: Percentage of learners in each Stage of learning to drive who carried their learner permit
Stage1 of the learner permit period Survey year
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Final Stage
2008 93.6 93.6 91.7 92.4
2009 94.3 91.3 92.8 91
2010 92.6 94.5 89.9 89.5
1 The stages of learning to drive were divided into four stages for the survey: • Stage 1 – the first 13 weeks after obtaining a learner permit • Stage 2 – 14 weeks to 26 weeks after obtaining a learner permit • Stage 3 – 27 weeks after obtaining a learner permit to probationary licence acquisition • Final Stage – the weeks spent in preparation for the licence test immediately prior to probationary licence acquisition (generally 3 to 4 weeks).
Summary and conclusions The Learner Monitor surveys indicated:
Total hours of supervised driving experience among 16 year old learner permit holders remained stable over the period before, during and after introduction of the new GLS with totals around the recommended 120 hours; starting from a lower base, the total hours of supervised experience for 17 and 18 year old learner permit holders roughly doubled over the years that the survey was conducted, with the 17 year olds approaching the same hours as the 16 year age group in 2010.
The duration of the learner permit period in weeks has increased in each age level from 2000 until 2010. There have been higher increases in the holding period per year since the introduction of the requirement in 2007 for those aged less than 21 years at the time of licensing to hold the permit for 12 months (previously six months).
15
Nearly all participants under 20 years and in their first 13 weeks of learning to drive understood that they must accumulate 120 hours of practice before they would be eligible to apply for their probationary licence.
Less than 5% of learners used a mobile phone whilst learning to drive (either hand-held, hands-free or texting).
There have been substantial increases in the percentage of learner drivers recording their practice in the years since the introduction of the GLS, with over 90% of these using the official Learner Log Book.
The great majority of learners always carried their learner permit during practice drives.
16
PROBATIONARY DRIVER BEHAVIOUR – INTERIM EVALUATION RESULTS
Introduction and method VicRoads has commissioned a series of surveys to assess the effects of the new GLS requirements on self-reported behaviour. The survey series has been designed to enable comparisons to be made between novice drivers licensed under the old GLS system and those licensed under the new GLS requirements. The surveys are not yet complete. It is possible, however, to provide some interim results based on a subset of the survey series.
The subset of surveys discussed here was designed to track two groups of novice drivers through their first two years of driving. The pre-GLS group was licensed under the licensing requirements in place before the new system was introduced. The post-GLS group was licensed under the new system.
VicRoads invited these drivers to participate in an online survey via an invitation letter, followed by a reminder letter two weeks after the invitation letter was sent. A reminder email was also sent out (for those for whom an email address was recorded) a week and half after the invitation letter was sent.
Those who did not respond to the online survey were followed up by telephone using Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI). The telephone follow up was for a period of two weeks.
Participants in both groups were recruited early and completed their first survey an average of 3-4 months into their probationary period. VicRoads currently has data from three survey waves for each group. This means that each group of drivers has provided information when drivers had an average of 3-4 months (Survey 1), 9-10 months (Survey 2), and 14-15 months of driving experience (Survey 3).
The surveys collected information from participants concerning their experiences as learner drivers and their driving behaviour as probationary drivers.
Key interim results Some key interim results are summarised below. More-detailed results will be incorporated into a subsequent evaluation report after completion of the survey series.
Risky driving behaviours
The surveys collected information from participants concerning how often they engaged in risky driving behaviours. They were asked to say how many of their last ten driving trips included each of the risky driving behaviours. Results were aggregated for the three surveys in the pre-GLS period to compare with the combined results for the three surveys in the post-GLS period.
Figure 4 shows that there was no indication that post-GLS drivers were generally more or less likely to engage in risky driving behaviours. The only differences between the two groups were:
Hands-free phone use was less common for post-GLS drivers (consistent with the new rules about hands-free phone use).
SMS use was more common for post-GLS drivers.
17
Post-GLS drivers were more likely to drive when tired.
These differences, however, were relatively small in magnitude.
-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
Number of Trips (out of last 10)
Exceed speed limit by up to 10 km/h
Exceed speed limit by 10-25 km/h
Exceed speed limit by over 25 km/h
Use hand-held phone to talk
Use phone to send/read SMS
Use hands-free phone to talk
Drive after drinking when prob should not
Drive after using illegal drugs
Drive when very tired
Drive without a seat belt for part of trip
Drive without seat belt for whole trip
Pre-GLS Post-GLS
Figure 4: Risky driving behaviours reported by pre- and post-GLS drivers (means and 95% confidence intervals)
Traffic Offences
Participants were asked how many times they had been detected for different traffic offences in the six months before the survey. Figure 5 shows the mean numbers of offences for the second and third surveys (the first survey is excluded because it was completed less than six months after obtaining a licence) for the pre- and post-GLS participants. The responses suggest:
Post-GLS drivers reported that they were detected for fewer traffic offences involving speeding, hand-held phone use and P plate use.
The difference between pre- and post-GLS drivers was smaller in the second survey, with offences declining with increased experience.
18
-0.0
5
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
No. of Offences
Speed low
Speed mod
Speed high
Traff signal
Stop sign
Drink drive
Drug drive
Hand-held ph
P plates
Impound car
Hand-free ph
-0.0
5
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
No. of Offences
Speed low
Speed mod
Speed high
Traff signal
Stop sign
Drink drive
Drug drive
Hand-held ph
P plates
Impound car
Hand-free ph
Pre-GLS Post-GLS
Figure 5: Number of traffic offences in Survey 2 – 9-10 months experience (left) and Survey 3 14-15 months experience (right), for pre- and post-GLS drivers (means and 95% confidence intervals)
GLS requirements
The new GLS requirements include a minimum of 120 hours of experience as a learner driver. Figure 6 shows the distributions of experience reported by participants in the pre- and post-GLS groups. The new GLS requirements had a substantial effect on the amount of experience accrued by learner drivers. As highlighted earlier in the report in Table 2, however, results from the Learner Driver Monitor, a more comprehensive survey method in terms of registering the amount of driving practice, suggest that increases in learner driver experience were most pronounced for 17 and 18 year olds while 16 year olds were on average meeting the 120 hour requirements in the lead up to the introduction of the new GLS requirements.
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No
of o
bs
Pre-GLS
<60
60-7
9
80-9
9
100-
119
120-
139
140-
159
160+
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Post-GLS
<60
60-7
9
80-9
9
100-
119
120-
139
140-
159
160+
Figure 6: Learner experience (hours) reported by participants (aged under 21 years) in the pre-GLS and post-GLS groups
Participants were asked about their behaviour in relation to specific requirements for probationary drivers. Key results are shown in Figure 7.
The pre-GLS and post-GLS participants differed in relation to:
Post-GLS drivers were less likely to talk on a hand-held or hands-free phone but more likely to send SMS messages via the phone. These differences disappeared by the third survey.
Post-GLS drivers were much less likely to carry more than one peer-aged passenger in the first and second surveys. This difference persisted in part as far as 14 to 15 months after licensing (survey 3), when many participants were P2 drivers for whom the peer passenger restriction no longer applied.
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SURVEY 1
Han
d-he
ld p
hone
SM
S
Pas
seng
ers
Han
ds-f
ree
phon
e
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Num
ber
of T
rips
(out
of
last
10)
SURVEY 2
Han
d-he
ld p
hone
SM
S
Pas
seng
ers
Han
ds-f
ree
phon
eSURVEY 3
Han
d-he
ld p
hone
SM
S
Pas
seng
ers
Han
ds-f
ree
phon
e
Pre-GLS Post-GLS
Figure 7: Number of trips in which participants used mobile phones and carried more than one peer passenger, for each survey and for pre- and post-GLS participants (means and 95% confidence
intervals)
Summary and conclusions The surveys of probationary drivers found:
Post-GLS drivers reported a much higher amount of learner driver experience than Pre-GLS drivers (this change appears to be confined mainly to increased experience among 18 and 19 year olds) – consistent with the new rule requiring 120 hours of driving experience
Post-GLS drivers were much less likely to carry more than one peer-aged passenger in the first and second surveys conducted during the first year of licensing
Post-GLS drivers reported that they were detected for fewer traffic offences involving speeding, hand-held phone use and P plate use
Post-GLS drivers did not engage in risky driving behaviours more often than the pre-GLS drivers; the only differences reported were that post-GLS drivers were less likely to talk on a hand-held or hands-free phone (consistent with the new rules about hands-free mobile phone use) and more likely to send or receive SMS messaging and to drive while tired.
21
CRASH TRENDS – INTERIM EVALUATION RESULTS
Introduction The requirements for drivers aged less than 21 to hold the learner permit for at least 12 months and accumulate at least 120 hours of supervised experience before graduating to a probationary licence apply to drivers whose learner permit was issued from 1 July 2007 onwards. Drivers subject to these requirements began graduating to probationary licences on 1 July 2008, the commencement date of the new Drive Test. Thus none of these drivers will complete their probationary licence period until 30 June 2012. By the end of 2010 – the latest date for which crash data are currently available – no drivers subject to these requirements had held a probationary licence for more than 2½ years. Hence the present investigation of the impact of the GLS changes on the crash involvement of probationary licence holders is necessarily incomplete. A full evaluation will not be possible until after 2014.
Due to the short period since the changes to the GLS were implemented, the number of fatal crashes available currently in the dataset is comparatively small, precluding the possibility of conducting meaningful analysis on trends in fatal crash involvements at this stage. The impact of the GLS changes on fatal crashes will be assessed when the full evaluation is performed.
Until 2005, crashes were reported by police using a paper-based system (Form 510). From 2006 onwards, crashes have been reported electronically via the Traffic Incident System (TIS). Following the introduction of TIS, there have been large variations over time in the proportion of casualties classified by police as ‘serious injuries’ and the proportion classified as ‘other injuries’ as adjustments to the new reporting procedures have take place. Detailed examination of casualty data held in the VicRoads Road Crash Information System (RCIS) showed that these variations in injury classification have not applied equally to all age groups. As a result, the classification of injuries as ‘serious’ or ‘other’ in the RCIS cannot be relied upon. The RCIS data were used, therefore, only for the analysis of involvements in casualty crashes overall as this dataset behaved more consistently over time.
Given the need to examine trends in involvements in the more severe class of crashes, a Transport Accident Commission (TAC) dataset of matched hospital admissions for greater than one day was combined with RCIS fatal crash data for the purposes of analysis of trends in serious road trauma. The “hospital admission” status of TAC claims is confirmed by the receipt of invoices from the hospitals for medical services provided to in-patients. It should be noted, however, that the match between TAC claims and RCIS crash records is not complete. A number of RCIS crashes where a serious injury was recorded need not generate a TAC claim. Nonetheless, the TAC claims database in itself provides a relatively consistent and well-behaved data series for the purposes of identifying trends and comparing the performance of different groups of drivers. The numbers observed, though, are likely to under-estimate the total number of hospital admissions arising from road crashes.
Method The crash analysis comprises a comparison of the number of drivers involved in casualty crashes and the number involved in serious crashes (i.e. serious injury and fatal crashes) before and after the changes to the GLS. Changes in crash involvement for ‘target’ drivers – those expected to be affected by the GLS – are compared with the corresponding changes for ‘control’ drivers – those not expected to be affected by the GLS. The control group is included in the analyses to make allowance for factors other than the GLS that may influence crash involvement during the evaluation period. Such factors may include changes
22
in economic activity, unemployment and fuel prices, as well as initiatives specifically intended to improve road safety, such as public education and enforcement campaigns and improvements to roads and vehicles.
The analyses were based on drivers involved in casualty crashes from 2006 to 2010 (inclusive). Crashes from 2005 and earlier could not be included due to the significant change in crash reporting that occurred when the TIS was introduced at the start of 2006. Probationary licence issue dates were obtained from the VicRoads Driver Licensing System (DLS) for over 99.5% of probationary and full licence holders aged less than 39 years involved in casualty crashes during the evaluation period. Drivers aged 39 years or more were excluded from the analyses because probationary licence issue dates were unavailable for many drivers in this age group. If the driver’s date of birth was missing from the VicRoads Road Crash Information System (RCIS), it was obtained from the DLS if possible. All analyses were limited to drivers whose licence was issued in Victoria, since drivers holding licences from other jurisdictions are not subject to the full range of provisions that make up the GLS.
Probationary driver crashes Involvement in casualty crashes and involvement in serious crashes are reported below for the following two groups of probationary licence holders:
1. drivers in the first year of holding a probationary licence that they obtained when aged 18 to less than 21
2. drivers in the first nine months of the second year of holding a probationary licence that they obtained when aged 18 to less than 21.
For both target groups, the control group was full licence holders aged 26 to 38 years, since their crash involvement is not expected to have been influenced by the changes to the GLS. Further analysis of the composition of this group over time will be conducted as part of the final evaluation.
For each target group, three time periods were defined:
1. Before period: 1/1/2006 to 30/6/2008. This was the period when no members of the target groups were subject to the major new requirements of the GLS.
2. Intermediate period: This period started on 1/7/2008 and finished on different dates for the two target groups. During this period some members of the target group were subject to and some were not subject to the major new requirements of the GLS; data for this period are excluded from the analysis of trends.
3. After period: This period started on different dates for the two target groups and finished on 31/12/2010. During this period, the great majority of the target group was subject to the major new requirements of the GLS (new Drive Test, minimum 12 months holding a learner permit, minimum 120 hours supervised experience as a learner, peer passenger restriction and a total prohibition of mobile phone use in the first year of the probationary licence, and good behaviour requirement for all probationary licence holders). A small minority of this group may have taken out a learner permit prior to 1 July 2007 and so would not be subject to all the provisions of the new GLS.
Table 4 below shows the change in casualty crash involvements for drivers aged 18 to 20 years in their first year of probationary licence. The table shows a decrease in the proportion of crash involvements for the target group in comparison with the control group (18.7% to
23
15.1%) when comparing after with before the introduction of the new GLS. This decrease was statistically significant.
As the before, intermediate and after periods are not all the same length, it is difficult to discern the true trends in casualty crash involvements by comparing numbers alone. For this reason, Figure 8 allows the percentage changes in crash involvements for the treatment groups and control groups to be easily compared. The annualised estimates of crash involvements for each group are depicted at the top of each bar in the figure.
Table 4: Count and percentage of casualty crash involvements by time period. Target group: first year holding a probationary licence
Time period Probationer, 0-11 months
Full licence, aged 26-38
Before (1/1/2006 - 30/6/2008) 2,632 (18.7%) 11,410 (81.3%)
Intermediate (1/7/2008 - 30/6/2009) 939 (17.0%) 4,591 (83.0%)
After (1/7/2009 - 31/12/2010) 1,210 (15.1%) 6,801 (84.9%)
Total 4,781 (17.3%) 22,802 (82.7%)
Figure 8 Proportional change in casualty crash involvements by time period: target group – first year drivers holding a probationary licence aged 18-20 yrs at licensing
Based on the information in Table 4, it is estimated that the package of changes introduced by the GLS has been accompanied by a 23% decrease in the number of casualty crash involvements of first year probationary drivers (18-20 years at licence) when compared with full licence-holders aged 26-38 years. These reductions equate to a saving of approximately 240 casualty crash involvements per annum for first year drivers.
Table 5 and Figure 9 below show the equivalent results for drivers, aged 18 to 20 years at time of licence, in the first nine months of their second year of probationary driving. As for first-year drivers, the results point to a reduction in the proportion of crash involvements for the target group in comparison with the control group. This decrease was also statistically significant (p < .05) and equates to an approximate 16% reduction in casualty crash involvements of drivers in the first nine months of their second year of driving (a saving of approximately 75 involvements per annum) after accounting for the slight shift in control group numbers.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Probationer, 0-11 months Full Licence, aged 26-38
Percentage
Before
After
1053
807
4564 4536
24
Table 5: Count and percentage of casualty crash involvements by time period. Target group: first 9 months of second year holding a probationary licence
Time period Probationer,
12-20 monthsFull licence, aged 26-38
Before (1/1/2006 - 30/6/2008) 1,210 (9.6%) 11,410 (90.4%)
Intermediate (1/7/2008 - 31/3/2010) 832 (9.4%) 8,033 (90.6%)
After (1/4/2010 - 31/12/2010) 298 (8.1%) 3,359 (91.9%)
Total 2,340 (9.3%) 22,802 (90.7%)
Figure 9 Proportional change in casualty crash involvements by time period: target group – probationary drivers in the first nine months of their second year of driving, aged 18-20 yrs at licensing
Table 6 and Figure 10 show the equivalent information for drivers in their first year of licensing involved in serious crashes (i.e. fatal crashes combined with crashes involving a person hospitalised for greater than one day based on matched TAC claims data).
The reduction in involvement in serious crashes for drivers in their first year of holding a probationary licence was statistically significant (p < .05), with an estimated 31% reduction in serious crash involvements relative to the small upward shift in the involvements of full licence-holders aged 26-38 years. This reduction equates to approximately 75 fewer involvements in fatal and serious injury crashes per annum.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Probationer, 12-20 months Full Licence, aged 26-38
Percentage
Before
After
484
397
4564 4478
25
Table 6: Count and percentage of involvements in serious injury and fatal crashes by time period. Target group: first year holding a probationary licence
Time period Probationer, 0-11 months
Full licence, aged 26-38
Before (1/1/2006 - 30/6/2008) 623 (21.2%) 2314 (78.8%)
Intermediate (1/7/2008 - 30/6/2009) 184 (16.5%) 931 (83.5%)
After (1/7/2009 - 31/12/2010) 278 (15.8%) 1487 (84.2%)
Total 1085 (18.7%) 4732 (81.3%)
Figure 10: Proportional change in serious casualty crash involvements by time period: target group – first year drivers holding a probationary licence aged 18-20 yrs at licensing
Table 7 and Figure 11 show the equivalent information for involvements in serious crashes among drivers in the first nine months of their second year of holding a probationary licence. The relative reduction in crash involvements of 13% was not statistically significant .
Table 7: Count and percentage of involvements in serious injury and fatal crashes by time period. Target group: first 9 months of second year holding a probationary licence
Time period Probationer,
12-20 monthsFull licence, aged 26-38
Before (1/1/2006 - 30/6/2008) 256 (10.0%) 2314 (90.0%)
Intermediate (1/7/2008 - 31/3/2010) 182 (9.8%) 1678 (90.2%)
After (1/4/2010 - 31/12/2010) 71 (8.8%) 740 (91.2%)
Total 509 (9.7%) 4732 (90.3%)
0
20
40
60
80
100
Probationer, 0-11 months Full Licence, aged 26-38
Percentage
Before
After
249
185
926 992
26
Figure 11: Proportional change in serious casualty crash involvements by time period: target group – probationary drivers in the first nine months of their second year of driving, aged 18-20 yrs at licensing
Carriage of peer passengers The target group for these analyses was drivers in the first year of holding a probationary licence that they obtained when aged 18 to less than 21. Under the new provisions of the GLS, except in limited circumstances, such drivers are permitted to carry no more than one passenger aged 16-21 years.
Table 8 shows that the proportion of target drivers carrying two or more peer passengers when involved in a casualty crash decreased from 11.4% in the ‘before’ period to 6.3% after the changes to the GLS when compared with target drivers carrying none or one passenger. This decrease was highly statistically significant (p=0.000).
Table 8: Count and percentage of casualty crash involvements by time period and number of peer passengers
Period Target with 0 or
1 peer passenger
Target with 2 or more peer
passengers
Before (1/1/2006 - 30/6/2008) 2,332 (88.6%) 300 (11.4%)
Intermediate (1/7/2008 - 30/6/2009) 863 (91.9%) 76 (8.1%)
After (1/7/2009 - 31/12/2010) 1,134 (93.7%) 76 (6.3%)
Total 4,329 (90.5%) 452 (9.5%)
Table 9 shows a decrease of 57% in the proportion of crash involvements for target drivers carrying two or more peer passengers when now compared with the control group. This decrease was also highly statistically significant (p=0.000) and equates to an approximate saving of 70 involvements per annum.
0
20
40
60
80
100
Probationer, 12-20 months Full Licence, aged 26-38
Percentage
Before
After
10295
926986
27
Table 9: Count and percentage of casualty crash involvements: Target group with two or more peer passengers versus control group
Period Target with 2 or
more peer passengers
Control (full licence, aged
26-38)
Before (1/1/2006 - 30/6/2008) 300 (2.6%) 11,410 (97.4%)
Intermediate (1/7/2008 - 30/6/2009) 76 (1.6%) 4,591 (98.4%)
After (1/7/2009 - 31/12/2010) 76 (1.1%) 6,801 (98.9%)
Total 452 (1.9%) 22,802 (98.1%)
It is possible that a decrease in crash involvement for target drivers carrying two or more peer passengers could have been achieved at the expense of an increase in crash involvement for target drivers carrying fewer than two peer passengers. However, Table 10 shows a decrease in the proportion of crash involvements for target drivers carrying fewer than two peer passengers by comparison with the control group. This decrease too was statistically significant (p=0.000).
Table 10: Count and percentage of casualty crash involvements: Target group with fewer than two peer passengers versus control group
Period Target with 0 or
1 peer passenger
Control (full licence, aged 26-
38)
Before (1/1/2006 - 30/6/2008) 2,332 (17.0%) 11,410 (83.0%)
Intermediate (1/7/2008 - 30/6/2009) 863 (15.8%) 4,591 (84.2%)
After (1/7/2009 - 31/12/2010) 1,134 (14.3%) 6,801 (85.7%)
Total 4,329 (16.0%) 22,802 (84.0%)
Figure 12 below shows the percentage reductions in casualty crash involvements for each of the three groups based on annualised figures, with the “before” figures standardised to 100 percent. The figure shows a substantial reduction in casualty crash involvements for first year probationers when compared with the target group with an additional reduction in involvements in crashes involving two or more peer passengers.
28
Figure 12: Proportional change in casualty crash involvements by time period: comparison groups – probationary drivers in their first year of driving and aged 18-20 yrs at licensing carrying either “0/1
passengers” or “2+ passengers”
Table 11 to Table 13 show a similar pattern of results for involvement in serious crashes (fatal crashes and those involving hospital admission combined). The proportion of target drivers carrying two or more peer passengers when involved in a serious crash decreased from 16.7% in the ‘before’ period to 10.4% after the changes to the GLS in comparison with target drivers carrying one or no passengers. This decrease was statistically significant (p=0.004) The proportion of serious crash involvements for target drivers carrying two or more peer passengers and for target drivers carrying fewer than two peer passengers both decreased significantly by comparison with the control group (p=0.000 and p=0.001, respectively). The reduction in involvements of target drivers carrying two or more passengers represents a reduction of 58% relative to the control group and equates to an annual saving of about 25 involvements.
Table 11: Count and percentage of involvements in serious injury and fatal crashes by time period and number of peer passengers
Period Target with 0 or
1 peer passenger
Target with 2 or more peer
passengers
Before (1/1/2006 - 30/6/2008) 519 (83.3%) 104 (16.7%)
Intermediate (1/7/2008 - 30/6/2009) 162 (88.0%) 22 (12.0%)
After (1/7/2009 - 31/12/2010) 249 (89.6%) 29 (10.4%)
Total 930 (85.7%) 155 (14.3%)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Probationer, 0-11 months (0/1passenger)
Probationer, 0-11 months (2+passenger)
Full Licence, aged 26-38
Percentage
Before
After
933
756
120
51
4564 4536
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Table 12: Count and percentage of involvements in serious injury and fatal crashes Target group with two or more peer passengers versus control group
Period Target with 2 or
more peer passengers
Control (full licence, aged
26-38)
Before (1/1/2006 - 30/6/2008) 104 (4.3%) 2314 (95.7%)
Intermediate (1/7/2008 - 30/6/2009) 22 (2.3%) 931 (97.7%)
After (1/7/2009 - 31/12/2010) 29 (1.9%) 1487 (98.1%)
Total 155 (3.2%) 4732 (96.8%)
Table 13: Count and percentage of involvements in serious injury and fatal crashes Target group with fewer than two peer passengers versus control group
Period Target with 0 or
1 peer passenger
Control (full licence, aged
26-38)
Before (1/1/2006 - 30/6/2008) 519 (18.3%) 2314 (81.7%)
Intermediate (1/7/2008 - 30/6/2009) 162 (14.8%) 931 (85.2%)
After (1/7/2009 - 31/12/2010) 249 (14.3%) 1487 (85.7%)
Total 930 (16.4%) 4732 (83.6%)
Figure 13 below shows the percentage reductions in serious casualty crash involvements for each of the three groups based on annualised figures. The figure shows that the new GLS has been accompanied by substantial reductions in first year probationary driver involvements in severe crashes and especially in severe crashes while carrying more than one peer passenger in the vehicle - a specific requirement under the new GLS.
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Figure 13: Proportional change in serious casualty crash involvements by time period: comparison groups – probationary drivers in their first year of driving and aged 18-20 yrs at licensing carrying
either “0/1 passengers” or “2+ passengers”
Summary and conclusions Analysis of preliminary crash data has demonstrated that at this early stage introduction of the GLS has been accompanied by a significant decrease in the crash involvement of probationary licence holders. This includes:
significantly reduced involvement in casualty crashes and in serious casualty crashes for drivers aged 18-20 when first licensed and who were in the first 12 months of holding a probationary licence, when compared with a control group of full licence-holders
a significant reduction in the casualty crash involvement (16%) of drivers aged 18-20 when first licensed in the first 9 months of their second year of holding a probationary licence
for drivers who were aged 18-20 when first licensed and are in the first 12 months of holding a probationary licence, significant reductions in the proportion of casualty crashes and the proportion of serious crashes in which the target driver was carrying two or more peer passengers.
It is estimated that, following the introduction of the new GLS, crash involvements of probationary licence holders aged 18-20 in their first year of holding a licence fell by 23% for all casualty crashes and by 31% for serious casualty crashes. The reduction in casualty crash involvement for drivers in the first nine months of the second year of holding a probationary licence is estimated to be 16%.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Probationer, 0-11 months (0/1passenger)
Probationer, 0-11 months (2+passenger)
Full Licence, aged 26-38
Percentage
Before
After
208
166
19
42 926 992
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DISCUSSION The interim evaluation of the newly introduced Graduated Licensing Scheme has shown very promising results across a range of behaviours and in terms of reductions in casualty crash and serious casualty crash involvements. Specifically, casualty crash and severe casualty crash involvements of first year probationary drivers have reduced significantly as have crashes involving multiple peer passengers, hours of practice have more than doubled for 17 and 18 year old learners, the duration of the learner period has increased and fewer offences are being reported.
Measures of behaviour change for both learners and probationary drivers have relied on surveys in which personal behaviours are self reported. Personal recollections have been served by limiting the time period or the number of occasions for which behaviour has to be reported. Inevitably some inaccuracies will occur. Importantly, though, the surveys serve the purpose of not only measuring the absolute frequency of occurrence of particular actions but also how these actions or behaviours change over time. These surveys then have been designed and rolled out with a view to minimising recall errors while providing valid indicators of absolute measures of behaviour as well as how these behaviours change over time.
The timing of the evaluation has necessarily meant that an analysis of crash involvement trends has focused on probationary drivers in their first year of licence carriage since the introduction of the new scheme. Comparisons were made between probationary drivers before and after the introduction of the GLS using full-licence holders aged 26 to 38 years as a control group. The control group has been chosen to account for background changes in environmental factors that will influenced both groups alike – factors such as economic activity, improvement in roads and cycles in weather patterns.
An intermediate period following 1 July 2008 has been omitted from the analysis as the period immediately following would be characterised by a mix of first year probationary drivers – some from the pre-GLS period and some subject to all the provisions of the new GLS. The period used for the post -GLS analysis commenced on 1 July 2009 with the great majority of drivers subject to the new licensing provisions, but a minority may well have taken out a learner permit before the 120 hour practice requirement was introduced. To the extent that the 120 hour provision is likely to improve the safety of the first year probationary driver, a small proportion of drivers largely unaffected by the new GLS provisions forming part of the target group for the interim analysis is likely to give rise to conservative estimates of the reduction in crash involvements as a result of the new GLS.
There are other factors at work though that do need to be accounted for in the final evaluation. These factors are summarised below:
Assessing the new GLS in total Evaluation to date has been only able to analyse the experience of post-GLS drivers for the first complete year only; as the provisions of the new scheme have extended the probationary period from three to four years, a final evaluation of the impact of the new GLS upon novice driver crash involvements in not possible then until at least the end of 2014. Changes in licensing rates A substantive change to licensing procedures can lead to a significant number of licence applicants applying for a licence prior to the new GLS requirements in order to avoid
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additional restrictions; a review of licensing rates across recent years in Victoria shows that numbers rose from 2006/7 (approximately 56,875 new licensees aged 18 to 20 years) to a recent peak in 2007/8 (61,244 new licensees) in the lead up to introduction of the new GLS, understandably fell in the following year, 2008/9, in part as a counterbalance (approximately 46,159 new licensees) and then began to rise slightly again in 2009/10 (50,267 new licensees). A disturbance to numbers taking out licences due solely to the adaptive response to a new licensing system (i.e. young people rushing to take out licences in advance of the new requirements being introduced) could in the short-term help to explain, at least in part, the reduction in casualty crash involvements once the new GLS was introduced. In other words, part of the reduction in crash involvements can be explained not in terms of the impact of the new scheme itself. A contributor to this trend could have been a diminution in capacity of VicRoads in the short term to process new licences as the new training programs were rolled out and adjustments to the revised procedures were bedded down. But these are not the only explanations for reduced licensing rates once the new GLS was introduced. The new drive test The new drive test was introduced on 1 July 2008 and was designed specifically to measure the safety skills that are developed through on-road practice of around 120 hours. A key aim of the test was to better assess and screen for safer solo driving. Trials showed that young people with more driving practice performed better on the new drive test than those with less practice. Test performance was also positively associated with other safety related measures. In view of its more exacting standards than those of the test that it replaced, available information indicates that the pass rate for the new test was considerably lower than that of its predecessor. This has meant that numbers successfully gaining licences would drop, at least in the short term, with the introduction of the new GLS. In other words, a drop in the number of new licensees in the period following the introduction of the new scheme can be attributed, at least in part, to the impact of the scheme itself and not simply due to a rush to obtain a licence in advance of the new scheme requirements being introduced. It will be important, then, as part of the final evaluation, to track licensing rates over the longer term to determine if the new rates of licensing return to a “steady state” situation and how that rate corresponds to licensing rates before the new GLS was introduced. Separating out the short-term effects of adaptive behaviours from the substantive longer-term impact of the scheme itself will be a key focus for the final evaluation. It should be noted, nonetheless, that reasonable precautions have been taken in the interim evaluation to mitigate the impact of these transitional factors. They include a pre-GLS period of two and a half years that serves to moderate the impact of any short term shifts in numbers seeking licences in advance of 1 July 2008. Secondly, the intermediate period of 12 or more months after 1 July 2008 also allows time for numbers to trend back towards a “steady “state” before the post-GLS analysis period commencing 1 July 2009.
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CONCLUSIONS This is an interim report and, as a result, outcomes described are preliminary and should be considered as indicative only. A final evaluation is only possible once a cohort of drivers has experienced all aspects of the revised provisions of the new Graduated Licensing Scheme.
Based on the analysis conducted to date, introduction of the new GLS is having a positive influence upon learner and probationary self-reported driver behaviours, as well as on the involvement of drivers in casualty and serious casualty crashes during the first twelve months of their probationary period.
Key results include:
Involvement in crashes
an estimated 31% reduction in the involvement of probationary drivers (18-20 years) in serious casualty crashes in their first year of holding a licence when compared with a control group comprising a subset of full licence-holders
an estimated 23% reduction in the involvement of probationary drivers (18-20 years) in casualty crashes overall in their first year of holding a licence
an estimated 57% reduction in the involvement of probationary drivers (18-20 years) with two or more passengers in casualty crashes overall compared with a control group of full licence-holders.
Self-reported behaviours
supervised hours of driving for 17 and 18 year olds have approximately doubled over the survey period while practice by 16 year olds has held steady at the required level of 120 hours on average of supervised driving
post-GLS drivers were much less likely to report carrying two or more peer passengers in the vehicle
post-GLS drivers reported fewer traffic offences involving speeding, hand-held phone use and non display of P-plates than did pre-GLS drivers
post-GLS drivers were less likely to use a hands-free mobile phone but more likely to report using SMS and driving while tired
less than 5% of learners used a mobile phone while learning to drive
A range of tasks remain to be undertaken to complete a comprehensive evaluation of the impact of the GLS changes on crash involvement. These include:
further analysis of crash involvement once a substantial cohort of drivers licensed under the new GLS provisions have completed the full four year probationary period and graduated to a full licence
accumulation of additional crash data so that the impact of the GLS on fatal crashes can be examined
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considering the impact of transitional and longer term steady state numbers of new licence applicants aged 18 to 20 years associated with introduction of the new scheme, especially in light of the increased numbers of new licensees immediately before and the reduced numbers after the new GLS was introduced
investigation of the impact of the GLS on the crash involvement of learner permit holders and unlicensed novice drivers
collection of further survey data from probationary and learner drivers.
In summary, introduction of the new GLS has been accompanied by very promising outcomes in terms of changes in behaviours to safer forms and in terms of reductions in casualty crash and serious casualty crash involvements. The full impact of the new GLS can only be determined once a cohort of young drivers have passed through the four years of the new probationary period and the potential impact of short-term and longer term licensing rates are considered.
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APPENDIX A – SUPPORT PROGRAMS TO ADDRESS THE YOUNG DRIVER CRASH PROBLEM Licensing
stage Typical
age group
Education initiatives
Pre-learner 15-16 The Road to Solo Driving provides information about road laws and a range of road safety information and needs to be studied by learner permit applicants.
Traffic Safety Education programs targeting Year 10 students in schools (during their last compulsory year of schooling).
Learner 16-18 The Learner Kit is given to all learner drivers and provides information to learners and their supervisors on how to best obtain the 120 hours of practice in a variety of driving and road conditions and strategies to reduce crash risk. Learners are required to record their 120 hours practice in the Learner Log Book, in the Learner Kit.
The Guide for Supervising Drivers is also given as part of the Learner Kit and aims to provide support and advice to supervising drivers about how to manage and maximise the benefits of the learner period.
Keys Please is a free information session provided state wide to year 10 students to support 120 hour acquisition and tips and strategies for learners and parents to use.
L2P – Learner Driver Mentor Program is a community-based volunteer mentor program, which is available to assist disadvantaged learners to get 120 hours of supervised driving experience (pilot programs commenced in 2007, wider availability since 2008).
Year 12 Muck-Up Day is a TAC program exploring the consequences of risky driving.
P1 18-19 The Probationary Kit is given to all P1 drivers and provides information about probationary rules, risks for new drivers and strategies to minimise these risks. Also contains advice to parents about keeping their young driver safe.
P Drivers Project is a national novice young driver program trial which aims to deliver and evaluate an on-road coaching and group discussion program on safety.
First Car List details safe and affordable used cars (all cars have a 4-5 star used car safety rating and cost under $15,000).
CGT is an iPhone app which aims to educate young drivers about the dangers of mobile phone use while driving.
Make a Film, Make a Difference is a TAC initiative encouraging young people to write an idea for a short film that will challenge young peoples’ attitudes to driving, independence and looking out for their mates.
P2 and
Newly transitioned to Full Licence
19-22
21-26
First Car List details safe and affordable used cars (all cars have a 4-5 star used car safety rating and cost under $15,000).
CGT is an iPhone app which aims to educate young drivers about the dangers of mobile phone use while driving.
Make a Film, Make a Difference is a TAC initiative encouraging young people to write an idea for a short film that will challenge young peoples’ attitudes to driving, independence and looking out for their mates.
