Yuting Chen School of Economics, Singapore Management

SMU Classification: Restricted

Yuting Chen

School of Economics, Singapore Management University https://yutingchen2014.wixsite.com/yuting/home

[email protected]

Contact Information School of Economics Singapore Management University 90 Stamford Road Singapore 178903, Republic of Singapore Cell: +65-90823619 Personal Information: Date of Birth: 20th, Feb, 1990 Gender: Female Citizenship: China Undergraduate Studies: B.A. (Hons) International Business Economics (First Class), University of Nottingham, Ningbo, China,

2008 – 2012 Masters Level Work: MSc. Economics and Econometrics, University of Nottingham, 2012 – 2013 Graduate Studies: Ph.D. School of Economics, Singapore Management University, 2014 – 2019 (expected) References:

Pao-Li Chang (advisor) School of Economics, Singapore Management University 90 Stamford Road Singapore 178903 [email protected] +65 – 68280830

Amanda Jakobsson School of Economics, Singapore Management University 90 Stamford Road Singapore 178903 [email protected] +65 – 68085467

Yuan Mei School of Economics, Singapore Management University 90 Stamford Road Singapore 178903 [email protected] +65 – 68085212


Teaching and Research Fields: Primary fields: International Trade, Foreign Direct Investment Secondary fields: Industrial Organization, Development Economics Teaching Experience: Teaching assistant (in Singapore Management Univeristy): Ph.D.: International Trade Undergraduate: International Economics; Urban Economics; Economics of Globalization Professional Activities: Referee: Frontiers of Economics in China Member: Econometric Society, Royal Economic Society Conference and Seminar Presentations: Oct. 2018, Shanghai University of International Business and Economics Research Seminar (Invited) Sep. 2018, European Trade Study Group, SGH Warsaw School of Economics

June. 2018, Asia-Pacific Trade Seminar, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology June. 2018, Asian Meeting of Econometric Society (Session Chair), Sogang University, Seoul

March.2018 Royal Economic Society Symposium for Junior Researchers, Sussex University June. 2017, Asia-Pacific Trade Seminar, Foreign Trade University, Hanoi, Vietnam June. 2017, China Meeting of Econometric Society, Wuhan University, China Dec. 2016 Singapore Management University Research Seminar Honors, Scholarships and Fellowships Singapore Management University Full Scholarship, 2014 – 2018 Universitas 21 Masters Scholarship, University of Nottingham, 2012 – 2013 Outstanding gradate, University of Nottingham, Ningbo, China, 2012 Dean’s Scholarship, University of Nottingham, Ningbo, China, 2008 – 2012 Publications: “Heterogeneous Firms in Importing: Theory and Evidence from China” Frontiers of Economics

in China, 2015, vol. 10, issue 2, 301-334 Research Papers: “Heterogeneous Firms in Trade: Quality Matters” (Job Market Paper) Abstract: In this paper, I study to what extent countries differ in their preferences for quality and their

technologies for improving quality. The paper also quantifies the contribution of those differences to the differences in gains from trade across countries. I adopt a tractable trade model of endogenous quality choice of firms where competition affects the scope of quality differentiation and structurally estimate the model. It is found that richer countries generally have larger valuation for quality. The quantification demonstrates that countries' variations in quality preferences and technology add to their heterogeneity in market competitiveness. Subsequently, I simulate a 5% increase in the trade barriers. If the quality channel is shut down, countries with higher quality preferences are more likely to have their losses from trade barrier underestimated. Finally, gains from a universal rise in quality preference are unequal among countries, with larger economies generally gain more than small economies.

“Informal Institutions and Comparative Advantage of South-Based MNEs: Theory and Evidence” (with Pao-Li Chang) R&R Journal of Development Economics Abstract: It has been suggested by the literature that similarly poor state institutions may be a source of

comparative advantage for South-based MNEs when investing in developing countries. Exactly how these comparative advantages arise is, however, less than fully understood because often the relative cost advantages of the North and South MNEs are assumed rather than derived. In this paper, we propose a theoretical model to micro-found the cost structure of firms, given their endogenous response to the state institutions of the country where they are based and where their production facilities might be. We arrive


at the main hypothesis that predicts an institutional complementarity pattern across countries in bilateral FDI flows at both the firm and country levels. Using worldwide bilateral FDI data at the firm level and at the country level, we find a statistically significant assortative matching pattern in the institutional qualities of FDI origins and destinations.

“Financial Constraints, Agency Problem and International Trade” (with Renjing Chen and Wei

Jin) Abstract: In this paper, we present a heterogeneous firm model à la Melitz (2003) where firms suffer

from both the agency problem inside and financial constraints outside. We show that conditional on the same raw productivity draw, managers of potential exporting firms around the export cutoff exert more efforts in financially under-developed countries, relative to their counterparts in financially developed countries, so as to induce their owners to export. This finding has very positive policy implications, as firms in financially under-developed countries can compete with their peers in financially developed countries by exerting more managerial efforts. We find clear empirical evidence for this theoretical prediction using World Management Survey data for more than ten thousands firms from around 20 countries during 1999 – 2010.

Work in Progress: “A Characterization of FDI Location Choice based on Global Firm-level Data: Productivity, R&D, and

Institutions” (with Pao-Li Chang) “Global Sourcing in Quality: Theory and Evidence from Chinese Data” (with Jichun Si) “Agglomeration and Spillover” (with Bin Ni) Computer Skills: STATA, Eviews, Matlab, Python, R, Latex Languages: Chinese (native), English, Japanese

Updated: Oct. 2018

SMUClassification:Restricted

Peng Liu

School of Economics, Singapore Management University Pengliusmu.weebly.com

[email protected] Contact Information School of Economics Singapore Management University 90 Stamford Road Singapore 178903, Republic of Singapore Cell: +65-93595502

Personal Information: Date of birth: 06/18/1988

Gender: Male Citizenship: China

Current Position: Post-Doctoral Fellow, Singapore Management University, Jul. 2017 - current Undergraduate Studies: B.A., Management, Nanjing Audit University, 2010 Masters Level Work: M.A., Economics, WISE, Xiamen University, 2013 Graduate Studies: Ph.D., School of Economics, Singapore Management University, 2017

Thesis Title: On Random Assignment Problems References: Shurojit Chatterji Atsushi Kajii Professor of Economics

Lee Kong Chian Fellow Singapore Management University [email protected]

Professor of Economics Institute of Economic Research Kyoto University [email protected]

Jordi Massó William Thomson Professor of Economics

Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona [email protected]

Elmer B. Milliman Professor University of Rochester [email protected]


Teaching and Research Fields: Primary fields: Microeconomic Theory, Mechanism Design

Secondary fields: Applied Economics, Algorithmic Game Theory

Teaching Experience: Instructor:

Math Camp (Ph.D.), SMU, Aug. 2015 and Aug. 2016 Teaching Assistant: Microeconomics I & II (Master), Game Theory (Undergraduate), SMU, Aug. - Nov. 2016 Microeconomics II (Ph.D.), SMU, Jan. - Apr. 2015 and Aug. - Nov. 2015Microeconomics II (Undergraduate), Xiamen University, Sept. 2011 - Jan. 2012

Professional Activities: Referee: Journal of Mathematical Economics

Academic Visit: University of Rochester, Oct. 2017, hosted by William Thomson Conference and Seminar Presentations: 2018 - Nanjing International Conference on Game Theory

Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, School of Economics Singapore Joint Economic Theory Workshop, SMU International Conference on Economic Theory and Applications, Chengdu Econometric Society Australasian Meeting, AUT The 14th Meeting of the Society for Social Choice and Welfare, Seoul 2017 - University of Rochester (Econ. Department) Nanjing International Conference on Game Theory, Nanjing Audit University 35th Australasian Economic Theory Workshop, University of Auckland and AUT Econometric Society Summer School, Hanyang University, Seoul 10th Conference on Economic Design, University of York Sun Yat-sen University (Lingnan College) 2016 - Workshop on Mechanism Design, SMU 13th Meeting of the Society for SCW, Lund

Honors, Scholarships, and Fellowships: Travel award to the 35th Australasian Economic Theory Workshop sponsored by NZIER, 2017

PhD Scholarship, Singapore Management University, 2013-2017Best Teaching Assistant, Xiamen University, 2011-2012 Spring semester Scholarship for Excellent Graduate Students, Xiamen University, 2010-2013

Research Papers: “Random Assignments of Bundles” with Shurojit Chatterji (Job Market Paper)

Abstract: We study the random assignments of bundles with no free disposal. The key difference between the setting with bundles and the setting with objects (see Bogomolnaia and Moulin (2001)) is one of feasibility. The implications of this difference are significant. First, the characterization of sd-efficient random assignments is fundamentally different. Second, a possibility result in the setting with objects fails in the setting with bundles. However, in the setting with bundles, we are able to identify a preference restriction, called essential monotonicity, under which the random serial dictatorship rule (extended to the setting with bundles) is equivalent to the probabilistic serial rule (extended to the setting with bundles). This equivalence implies the existence of a rule on this restricted domain satisfying sd-efficiency, sd-strategy-proofness, and equal treatment of equals. Moreover, this rule selects only random assignments which can be decomposed as convex combinations of deterministic assignments.


“Random Assignments on Sequentially Dichotomous Domains” R&R in Games and Economic Behavior Abstract: We present a possibility result on the existence of a random assignment rule satisfying sd-strategy-proofness, sd-efficiency, and equal treatment of equals. In particular, we introduce a class of preference domains: sequentially dichotomous domains. On any such domain, the probabilistic serial rule (Bogomolnaia and Moulin (2001)) is sd-strategy-proof. Moreover, any sequentially dichotomous domain is maximal for this rule to be sd-strategy-proof. “Random Assignments on Preference Domains with a Tier Structure” with Huaxia Zeng R&R in Journal of Mathematical Economics Abstract: We address a standard random assignment problem (Bogomolnaia and Moulin, 2001). A weakly connected domain admitting an sd-strategy-proof, sd-efficient and sd-envy-free rule is characterized to be a restricted tier domain. Conversely, on such a domain, the Probabilistic Serial rule is uniquely characterized by either sd-efficiency and sd-envy-freeness, or sd-strategy-proofness, sd-efficiency and equal treatment of equals. Thereafter, we show that a connected domain admitting an sd-strategy-proof, sd-efficient and equal-treatment-of-equals rule is also a restricted tier domain. Finally, we provide an algorithm to construct unions of restricted tier domains, each of which admits an sd-strategy-proof, sd-efficient and sd-envy-free rule.

“A Large Class of Strategy-Proof Exchange Rules with Single-Peaked Preferences” Abstract: We study the classical house exchange problem (Shapley and Scarf (1974)) and identified a large class of rules, each of which is strategy-proof, efficient, and individually rational with single-peaked preferences. These rules are generalizations of Gale’s top trading cycles rule: In each step a subset of houses are allowed to be traded along top trading cycles and in particular, the next step subset of trading houses may depend on the exchanges happened already. We believe that the flexibility introduced by this class of rules is desirable when the designer faces some context-specific requirements.

“Specification Tests of Habit Formation” with Yu Ren (Master Thesis) Applied Economics Letters 20.17 (2013): 1596-1601. Abstract: Campbell and Cochrane (1999) propose the habit formation model to explain the equity premium puzzle. They assume that an agent’s consumption is affected by habit and describe how habit adjusts to the history of consumption. We use the simulated moment method to test these two specifications. Empirically, we find that habit plays an important role in an agent’s consumption choice, however not in the way Campbell and Cochrane (1999) specify.

Computer Skills: Matlab; Latex; Stata Languages: Chinese (native), English (fluent)


Di Sima

School of Economics, Singapore Management University http://mrpercy007.wixsite.com/simadi

[email protected]

Contact Information

School of Economics

Singapore Management University

90 Stamford Road

Singapore 178903, Republic of Singapore

Cell: +65 98964397

Personal Information:

Citizenship: China

Undergraduate Studies:

BA, Applied Psychology, School of Education, Zhengzhou University (China), 2010

Masters Level Studies:

MA, Economics, School of Economics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology

(China), 2014

Graduate Studies:

Singapore Management University, 2014 - 2019 (Expected)

Thesis Title: “Essays in Political Economy, Growth, and Innovation” Expected Completion Date: May, 2019

Thesis Committee and References:

Fali Huang (advisor) Madhav S. Aney School of Economics


90 Stamford Road

Singapore 178903

< +65 68280859 > < [email protected] >

School of Economics


90 Stamford Road

Singapore 178903

< +65 68280644 > < [email protected] >

Jungho Lee

School of Economics


90 Stamford Road

Singapore 178903

< +65 68280086 > <[email protected] >

http://mrpercy007.wixsite.com/simadi

http://mrpercy007.wixsite.com/simadi

mailto:[email protected]





Teaching and Research Fields:

Primary fields: Development Economics, Growth and Development, Political Economy, Human

Capital and Innovation

Secondary fields: Democratization, Income Redistribution

Teaching Experience:

ECON217 Macroeconomics of Income Distribution, Fall 2018

Teaching Assistant to Professor HO Kong Weng

ECON101 Intermediate Microeconomics, Spring 2018

Teaching Assistant to Professor Fali Huang

ECON101 Intermediate Microeconomics, Spring 2017

Teaching Assistant to Professor Massimiliano Landi

ECON209 Labor Economics, Fall 2015

Teaching Assistant to Professor Jungho Lee

Teaching Certificate, Center for Teaching Excellence, 2018

Research Experience:

Research Assistant to Professor Fali Huang in School of Economics, Singapore Management

University, 2014 on the project of “Keju system in ancient China”

Conference and Seminar Presentations:

International Conference on Economic Theory and Applications at Southwestern University of

Finance and Economics 2018

China Meeting of the Econometric Society (CMES) at Fudan University 2018

Annual Australasian Public Choice Conference (APCC) at Deakin University 2017

Singapore Management University Research Workshop 2017

Honors, Scholarships, and Fellowships: Graduate Full Scholarship (Ph.D. Program), Ministry of Education, Singapore, Aug 2014-Jul 2018

Research Papers:

“Curriculum Control and Innovation” (Job Market Paper)

Abstract: This article empirically explores the effect of curriculum control on the cross-country

innovative capacity. I argue that the interconnection of more centralized curriculum design and high-

stakes achievement exams would lead to more homogeneous learning experiences and bring other

adverse side effects to students (e.g., impair imagination, curiosity, critical thinking, and self-

confidence of students), which would be less favorable towards the cultivation of their creativity and

hence weaken the national creativeness. The regression results are quite robust and show that

centralized curriculum control is negatively associated with national innovativeness captured by

various and different dimensions of innovation indicators. Using the variation of Caloric Suitability

Index and the number of native cultures before colonization as IVs, I identify the causal and negative

effect of curriculum control on innovation. This study implies that the recent education reforms in some

developed countries that aimed to improve students’ test performances by implementing more

centralized and standardized curriculum and high-stakes exams would undermine their innovative

capacities in the long run.

“Is Democracy Good for Growth? — Institutional Quality Matters” (with Fali Huang)

Abstract: The level of economic development during democratization exerts long-lasting effects on

growth, possibly by giving permanent birthmarks to newly minted institutions. This paper finds that

democracies born in weak development tend to have weak institutions and slow growth (labeled as

Weak Democracies), while in contrast, those with adequate development at the political transition time

establish strong institutions and achieve faster growth (labeled as Strong Democracies). Salient

differences between them also exist in other dimensions such as population growth rates and populism

tendencies. These results are based on data in 1960-2010 and robust to various specifications and

endogeneity issues. Without appropriate development, democratization does not facilitate growth.


“Economic Growth and Democratization —The Legacy of State History” (with Fali Huang)

Abstract: This paper studies the heterogeneous effects of democracy and state capacity on economic

growth, as well as the role of state capacity on democratization. We establish a unified political

economy model to analyze the economic growth and democratization process in the context of different

autocratic legacies of statehood with distinct education policies. An autocracy with powerful statehood

has the advantage of providing specific education that improves the productivity of the masses through

the use of mature technologies, while a democracy has the advantage of offering general education that

enhances the productivity of their people through the use of advanced technology, along with the skill

of defending their own interests in the event of political conflicts. So, the autocracy with a developed

state outperforms the democracy in terms of economic growth at the early developmental stage, while

the democracy performs better when general human capital is the main growth engine. To ensure

sustainable economic growth, democratization is needed when the autocratic country becomes rich.

However, the well-developed state that once brought economic prosperity may become an obstacle to

political reform because ruling elites can easily suppress their opponents. In the empirical study, we

confirm that democracy has greater impacts on growth when the country has a more educated

population, while the opposite is true for the state institution. Additionally, an inverted-U shape link

between statehood and democratization is found

Computer Skills: Stata, R, Python, Latex

Languages:

Chinese (native), English (fluent)


Jessica Ya Sun

School of Economics, Singapore Management University [email protected]

Contact Information

School of Economics


90 Stamford Road Singapore 178903, Republic of Singapore

Cell: +65 8389 2581

Personal Information:

April 16th 1991, Chinese


B.S., Cum Laude, Economics, School of Economics, Singapore Management University, 2013.

Graduate Studies:

Singapore Management University, Aug 2013 to May 2018 Thesis Title: Three Essays in Social Insurance


Seonghoon Kim (advisor) Bryce Hool

Assistant Professor, School of Economics

Singapore Management University 90 Stamford Road

Singapore 178903

+65 6808 5465

[email protected]

Dean, School of Economics

Singapore Management University 90 Stamford Road

Singapore 178903

+65 6828 0707

[email protected]

Rhema Vaithianathan

Professor, School of Economics

Auckland University of Technology 120 Mayoral Drive, Auckland

+64 9 921 9999 ext 8064

[email protected]


Primary fields: Health Economics Secondary fields: Public Economics

Teaching Experience: Instructor for ECON225: Health Systems and Policy (Spring, 2019)

Instructor for STAT101: Introductory to Statistics (Fall, 2017; Spring, 2018)

Teaching Assistant for Econ215: Health Economics (Spring, 2016)






Professional Activities:

2018-2019 Postdoctoral Research Fellow Centre for Research on the Economics of Ageing(CREA)

2017 Intern Asia Development Research Consultant

2016 -2017 Research Consultant National University Hospital (NUH)


2018 RAND Summer Institute

2018 International Pension Workshop at Nova University in Lisbon 2017 Brownbag Seminar at School of Economics, Singapore Management University

2016 Paris School of Economics Microeconometrics Summer School

2015 Singapore Health Economics Association Conference

2015 International Symposium on Contemporary Labor Economics

Research Grants:

2018 Collaborator Ministry of Education (MOE) Tier 1 Fund for Project “Policy Awareness and Policy Intervention” (with Luca Facchinello) SGD 40,000

2018 Collaborator Ministry of Education (MOE) Tier 1 Fund for Project “Cancer Screening

and Adoption of Preventive Measures” (with Yini Gao and Daniel Zheng) SGD 40,000

Honors, Scholarships, and Fellowships:

2018 Ministry of Education (MOE) Postdoctoral Fellowship

2013 Ministry of Education (MOE) Scholarship for PhD

Publications:

“The Long-term Effects of Early-Life Malnutrition: Evidence from the China Great Leap Forward

Famine” (with Seonghoon Kim and Belton M. Fleisher). Health Economics 2017(26): 1264-1277.

Research Papers:

“The Effect of Public Transfer to Health Savings Accounts on Healthcare Utilization and Health”

(Job Market Paper)

Abstract: I examine the effects of cash transfers on healthcare utilization and health by exploiting a healthcare

policy in Singapore that provides a cash transfer of 100SGD or 200SGD to mandatory health savings

accounts for all citizens born before 1959. Using monthly longitudinal data from the Singapore Life Panel, I compare the outcomes of individuals born right before and after January 1959. I find that the

receipt of cash transfers in an individual health savings account leads to a higher probability of doctor

visits and higher monthly health spending. In addition, I provide evidence that the cash transfer to a

health savings account increases the probability of diagnosis of chronic conditions.

“Welfare Consequences of Access to Health Insurance for low- and middle-income households:

Evidence from New Cooperative Medical Scheme” (Revise and Resubmit at Health Economics)

Abstract:

This paper evaluates the welfare benefits of the New Cooperative Medical Scheme (NCMS), the main public health insurance plan for the rural population in China. I find that the value of the NCMS to

recipients is slightly higher than the government’s costs of implementation. Household benefits from the

insurance through its value in transfer and insurance function. The estimated moral hazard costs are

small compared to the total benefits. The findings suggest that behavioural changes due to health insurance (i.e. an increase of medical service utilization) are in large welfare improving among low- and

middle-income households.


“Can Refinements to Effective Transitional Care Services Improve Outcomes? Results from a

Pragmatic Randomized Controlled Trial” (with Chen Yanying, Tan Yijin, Chua Chenzhan, Jefferey

Yoo, Thomas Wong, Helen Chen, John Wong, and Philip Phan) Invited for resubmission at BMC Health

Services Research

Abstract: Many hospitals have implemented transitional care programmess (TCPs) to reduce rehospitalisations. As

the practice spreads, there remains a question of whether further gains can be made by refining existing

TCP models. We conducted a pragmatic, randomised, controlled trial of a new TCP, CareHub, for cardiac patients in Singapore’s National University Hospital. CareHub merges an assortment of existing

transitional care services to protocolise post-discharge patient encounters, with the goal of improving

patient outcomes and containing costs. Over a period of 6 months post-discharge, CareHub reduced the number of unplanned cardiac-related readmissions and total unplanned, cardiac-related days in hospital

by 39% and 56% respectively. Net costs were reduced by about SGD1,300 per CareHub patient. We

also find evidence that CareHub reduced patient anxiety/depression and improved the transition of care.

Research in Progress:

Wealth Dynamics and Active Saving in Singapore (with Michael Hurd and Susann Rohwedder)

Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment Insurance Savings Account

Languages:

Chinese (Native); English (Fluent)


SIJIA XU

School of Economics, Singapore Management University https://economics.smu.edu.sg/phd-economics/phd-job-candidate-xu-sijia

[email protected] Contact Information School of Economics Singapore Management University 90 Stamford Road Singapore 178903, Republic of Singapore Cell: 97728635

Personal Information: Female, Chinese Undergraduate Studies: Bachelor of Science, Applied Mathematics, National University of Singapore, 2011 Masters Level Work: Master of Social Science, Applied Economics, National University of Singapore, 2013 Graduate Studies: Singapore Management University, 2013 to 2018

Thesis Title: Three Essays on Human Capital Development in Bangladesh Completion Date: June 2018

Thesis Committee and References: Tomoki Fujii (advisor)

Associate Professor & Associate Dean Christine Ho Associate Professor

School of Economics Singapore Management University 90 Stamford Road Singapore 178903 <(65)68280279> <[email protected]>

School of Economics Singapore Management University 90 Stamford Road Singapore 178903 <(65)68085173> <[email protected]>

Abu S. Shonchoy

Assistant Professor Sonia Akter (teaching) Assistant Dean & Assistant Professor

Department of Economics Florida International University 11200 SW 8th Street Miami, Florida 33199 <(305)3483352> <[email protected]>

Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy National University of Singapore 469C Bukit Timah Road Singapore 259772 <(65)66013972><[email protected]>


Teaching and Research Fields: Primary fields: Development Economics

Secondary fields: Family Economics

Teaching Experience: Instructor:

Economics and Mathematics Preparatory Course (Master), Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in National University of Singapore, AY2018/2019. Student Evaluation: 6.25/7 Intermediate Maths for Economics (Undergraduate), Singapore Management University, Term 1 AY2016/2017 and AY2017/2018. Student Evaluation:6.10/7 Teaching Assistant: Economic Development in Asia (Undergraduate), Singapore Management University, Term 2 AY2015/2016. Urban Economics and Policies (Undergraduate), Singapore Management University, Term 2 AY2014/2015.

Research Experience: Short-term Consultant, World Bank, DRC WPD Nutrition Project, 2017.

Short-term Consultant, World Bank, DRC SWIFT Project, 2017. Research Assistant, Singapore Management University, 2013-2015.

Professional Activities: Short-term Consultant, World Bank, DRC WPD Nutrition Project, 2017.

Short-term Consultant, World Bank, DRC SWIFT Project, 2017.


LKYSPP Brown Bag Seminar, Singapore, 2018. China Meeting of the Econometric Society (CMES), China, 2018. Australasian Development Economics Workshop (ADEW), Australia, 2018. ADBI-AGI Conference on Public and Private Investment in Human Capital and Intergenerational Transfers, Japan, 2017. LKYSPP Development Economics and Policy (DeEP) Conference, Singapore, 2016. Singapore Economic Review Conference (SERC), Singapore, 2015.

Honors, Scholarships, and Fellowships:

PhD Scholarship, Singapore Management University, 2013-2016. Full Undergraduate Scholarship of Ministry of Education, Singapore, 2007-2011.

Publications:

Fujii, T., Shonchoy, A. S., and Xu, S. (2018) “Impact of Electrification on Children’s Nutritional Status in Rural Bangladesh,” World Development, 102, 315-330

Research Papers:

“Illusion of Gender Parity in Education: Intrahousehold Resource Allocation in Bangladesh”, with Abu S. Shonchoy and Tomoki Fujii (Job Market Paper) Abstract: The target under the third Millennium Development Goal (MDG)—to eliminate gender disparity in all levels of education by 2015—has been achieved in the developing world, according to the MDG Report 2015. However, gender parity through the narrow lens of school enrollment is misleading as girls may lag behind boys in other important education outcomes. We investigate this with four rounds of household surveys from Bangladesh by decomposing households' schooling decisions into enrollment, education expenditure, and core share of education expenditure, or the share allocated for the quality of education such as private tutoring. We find a pro-female bias in school


enrollment but pro-male bias in conditional expenditure and core share expenditure decisions from 2000 onwards. This contradirectional gender gap is unique to Bangladesh and can be explained partly by the presence of conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs, collectively known as Female Stipend Programs (FSPs). While FSPs promoted girls' enrollment in secondary schools, they did not narrow the gender gap in education expenditure and core share conditional on enrollment, indicating the presence of gender gap in the quality of education once children are in school. Consistent with this, girls are less likely to graduate from secondary schools than boys conditional on the graduation from primary schools. Taken together, the achievement of gender parity in education is only an illusion, at least in Bangladesh, resulting from the exclusive use of enrollment as the key performance indicator in the MDG’s target. More efforts are called upon to further promote gender equality and empower women. “Impact of Electrification on Children’s Nutritional Status in Rural Bangladesh”, with Tomoki Fujii and Abu S. Shonchoy Abstract: Access to electricity has the potential to improve the nutritional status of children through a variety of pathways such as increased wealth, reduced fertility through the change in time use, spread of information through technology such as TV, and improved health care services. Yet, the relationship between electrification and children's nutritional status is rarely explored in the literature. We attempt to fill this lacuna by offering microeconometric evidence from rural Bangladesh, where a rapid expansion of electrification and significant improvement in children's nutritional status were observed in the past two decades. We find that access to electricity has a positive impact on the nutritional status of children under five as measured by height-for-age Z-score (HAZ) by around 0.1 to 0.2 points using five rounds of Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey from 2000 to 2014. Our results also appear to indicate that the quality of electricity may influence the size of this positive impact. While our analysis of causal pathways is limited by the data availability, it suggests that the positive impact of electrification partially comes from increased wealth. For some years, the positive impact can also be attributed to reduced fertility and information exposure through TV viewing. On the contrary, we find little evidence that the impact is attributable to the improvement of local health facilities. Our findings underscore the importance of evaluating infrastructure programs such as rural electrification from a broad perspective as their impacts may go well beyond the economic benefits considered in a typical cost-benefit analysis. This in turn may encourage governments to invest more in basic infrastructure, which is still severely lacking in Bangladesh and many other countries in the rest of South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. “Can a Vocational Training Program Empower Women? Experimental Evidence from Northern Bangladesh”, with Tomoki Fujii and Abu S. Shonchoy Abstract: This paper experimentally studies the impact of a job training "plus" program in the ready-made garment (RMG) sector on female empowerment in northern Bangladesh, where the program features the provision of information, stipend, and internship in addition to the skills training. We find that the training ``plus'' program tends to increase the women's social status and mobility and improve men's attitude towards gender equality. On the other hand, it tends to lower women's perception of female empowerment and weakens women's decision power. We also find that the estimated treatment effect change over time.

Computer Skills: STATA, Matlab, R, LaTex Languages: Mandarin (native), English (fluent), Cantonese (good)


MING ZENG

School of Economics, Singapore Management University Email address: [email protected]

Contact Information

School of Economics


90 Stamford Road

Singapore 178903, Republic of Singapore

Cell: +65 86579156


Bachelor of Engineering in Applied Mathematics, Beijing University of Aeronautics and

Astronautics, 2011.

Masters Level Work: Master of Science in Financial Engineering, ESSEC Business School, 2012

Doctoral Studies:

Ph.D. in Economics, Singapore Management University, 2018

Thesis Title: Three Essays on Empirical Asset Pricing


Jun Yu (advisor)

Lee Kong Chian Professor of

Economics and Finance

Thomas J. Sargent Professor of Economics

New York University

School of Economics

Lee Kong Chian School of Business


Phone: +65 6828 0858

Email: [email protected]

Senior Fellow

Hoover Institution

Stanford University

Phone: +01 (212) 998-8900


Dashan Huang Anthony Tay

Assistant Professor of Finance

Lee Kong Chian School of Business


Phone: +65 6808 5476


Associate Professor of Economics

School of Economics


Phone: +65 6828 0850



Primary fields: Financial Economics, Empirical Asset Pricing, International Finance

Secondary fields: Applied Econometrics


Teaching Experience:

2016-2017: Adjunct Lecturer at ESSEC Business School

Stochastic Processes in Continuous Time (Master of Finance program)

Evaluation: 4.07/5

2015-2016: Instructor for SMU PhD Math Camp: Theory of Dynamic Programming

2014-2018: Teaching Assistant, School of Economics, Singapore Management University

Advanced Topics in Macroeconomics (Prof. Thomas Sargent)

PhD-level Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics (Prof. Nicolas Jacquet)

Undergraduate-level Macroeconomics (Prof. Nicolas Jacquet)


2018-2019: AFA Ph.D. Poster Session (scheduled). Nankai University (scheduled). Central

University of Finance and Economics (scheduled). FMA Annual Meeting*. Hanqing

Advanced Institute of Economics and Finance, Renmin University of China. SAIF*.

Fanhai International School of Finance, Fudan University. School of Management,

Fudan University. University of Macau. Peking University HSBC Business School.

Econometric Society Asian Meeting. Econometric Society China Meeting. Wolfe

Research Global Quantitative and Macro Investment Conference*. Conference on

Frontiers of Factor Investing*. Birkbeck College, University of London*. Lee Kong

Chian School of Business, Singapore Management University

2016-2017: FMA Annual Meeting. EEA-ESEM. Annual Conference of International Association for

Applied Econometrics (IAAE). Econometric Society China Meeting. Econometric

Society Asian Meeting. School of Economics, Singapore Management University.

Australasian Finance and Banking Conference

(* indicates presentation by co-author)

Honors, Scholarships, and Fellowships: 2013-2017: Presidential Doctoral Fellowship, Singapore Management University

2017: Student travel grant for the Annual Conference of IAAE

2012: ESSEC Excellence Scholarship

Research Papers: “Currency Carry, Momentum, and US Interest Rate Uncertainty” (Job Market Paper)

Abstract: Currency carry and momentum are among the most popular investment strategies in the

foreign exchange market. The carry (momentum) strategy buys currencies with high interest rates

(recent returns) and sells currencies with low interest rates (recent returns). The strategies realize similar

or even higher Sharpe ratios compared with that of the US aggregate stock market over the past 30

years, yet little is known for their common risk sources. This paper finds that their high returns are

compensation for the risk of US interest rate uncertainty (IRU), with risk exposures explaining 90% of

their cross-sectional return variations. The profitability of two strategies also weakens substantially

when the uncertainty over US interest rate is unexpectedly high. Asset pricing tests show that the role of

US IRU is not driven by exposures to commonly used risk factors such as the global foreign exchange

volatility risk. The unified explanatory power is consistent with an intermediary-based exchange rate

model. High carry and momentum currencies are more attractive to hold against US dollar by the

intermediary, due to their high interest rates and expected demand from international investors

respectively. Positive US IRU shocks tighten the intermediary’s financial constraints and trigger the

position unwinding by the intermediary. As a result, high carry and momentum currencies realize low

returns and command high risk premia as they are bad hedges to the US IRU shocks.

“Inflation Risk, Ambiguity, and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns” Abstract: Understanding how inflation risk is perceived by the stock market is a long-standing question

for financial economists and helps provide important guidance for long-term investment management.

While the usual findings point to a weak role of inflation risk, in this paper I find that how the stock


market prices the inflation risk is strongly affected by the inflation ambiguity. The representative

investor does not trust her model of inflation and the ambiguity refers to the uncertainty over alternative

models that could generate the observed inflation data. In a consumption-based asset pricing model with

ambiguity-averse investor, the measured inflation risk premium contains the compensation for inflation

risk and inflation ambiguity. Hence the time-varying correlation between inflation and ambiguity

dictates the interaction of these two components and the behavior of measured inflation premium. Using

the inflation forecast dispersion of professional forecasters as the empirical proxy for inflation

ambiguity, I show that such correlation, named as the nominal-ambiguity correlation (NAC), strongly

drives the inflation premium measured from US individual stocks. Positive NAC at the current quarter

predicts in the following quarter a loss of quarterly inflation premium of -4.88%. The magnitude is

economically large and statistically significant. The time-varying NAC also explains well the dynamics

of inflation premium at the industry-level. A battery of robustness checks indicate that the ambiguity

channel is unrelated to existing explanations.

“The Share of Systematic Risk in Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets” Abstract: Is there a common systematic risk between the foreign exchange market and the stock

market? To answer this question, I estimate a two-country affine term structure model using the data

from the currency market. The model is essentially a stochastic discount factor (SDF) model. Within the

standard economic framework, the SDF helps price any assets and hence if there exists such share of

risk, the estimated SDF from the currency market should be able to explain the stock market risk

premium. The model is nonlinear and is estimated via the particle filter. Empirically I show that the most

important state governing the estimated SDF, the so-called Forex-specific factor, is indeed an important

driver of the stock market risk premium. Not only it contributes a sizable portion of exchange rate

volatility, but also outperforms the commonly-used financial and macroeconomic variables in terms of

predicting US stock excess returns. The predictive power is robust to forecasting horizons, and to

different industry and characteristic portfolios. The evidence suggests that instead of the segmented

markets as usually documented by the literature, there exists important share of risk between foreign

exchange and US stock markets.

“The Term Structure of Sovereign CDS and the Cross-section of Exchange Rate Predictability”,

joint with Giovanni Calice

Abstract: Out-of-sample exchange rate predictability is an enduring challenge for international finance.

In this paper we provide new and encouraging evidence on this by using the term premia of the

sovereign credit default swap (CDS). The sovereign CDS is a popular tool to trade on country’s credit

risk, and its term premia reflect investors’ perception of sovereign credit risk over different horizons.

Using a sample of 29 countries, we find that the sovereign CDS term premia significantly predict the

exchange rate out-of-sample. The predictability is evaluated via the cross-sectional approach, which is

model-free and thus stands in contrast to the usual time-series method. On average, higher CDS term

premia for a country predicts its currency appreciation against the US dollar (USD). The predictive

power is robust after controlling for other conventional macroeconomic and financial factors. Further

analysis shows that the predictability stems from the informative role of the sovereign CDS term premia

on the country-specific credit risk.

“Understanding US Firm Efficiency and its Asset Pricing Implications”, joint with Giovanni Calice

and Levent Kutlu

Abstract: The failure of optimizing firm’s output is pervasive across different firms and industries, and

the discrepancy between the actual and optimal output is typically referred as the technical efficiency.

Given the role of such efficiency on capturing the firm’s ability of optimizing output, there is

surprisingly little research studying the link between firm-level technical efficiency and their stock

returns. In this paper, we first estimate the total factor productivity growth of US firms between 1966

and 2015 and decompose the TFP growth into returns to scale, technical progress, and in particular the

efficiency change components. We find that most of the variations in TFP growth are explained by the

technical efficiency change. We then show that the stock returns of firms with low technical efficiency

are more sensitive to a wide class of economic shocks, and the classical stock return anomalies are more


pronounced among these firms. With the new evidence in hand, we argue that the technical efficiency

reflects a synthesis of frictions such as the agency problem or financial frictions. Low efficiency firms

face overall higher frictions and are thus more vulnerable to economic fluctuations.

Computer Skills: Matlab, SAS, R, LaTex, Dynare, VBA

Languages: English (Fluent), Mandarin (Native), French (Intermediate)

Documents

Yuting Chen School of Economics, Singapore Management