© 2007 Population Reference Bureau Association Between Average Annual World Population Growth Rates and GDP per Capita Growth Rates, 1975-2004 Growth Rates

© 2007 Population Reference Bureau

Association Between Average Annual World Population Growth Rates and GDP per Capita Growth Rates, 1975-2004

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8

Growth Rates in Population

Source: Population Reference Bureau, Population & Economic Development Linkages 2007 Data Sheet.

Growth Rate in GDP per Capita

Growing population

Growing economyDeclining population

Declining economy

China

SingaporeCongo, Dem. Rep.

Saudi Arabia


• Globally, a higher rate of population growth is associated with a lower rate of economic growth, but the association varies across regions and income levels.

Notes on Association Between Average Annual World Population Growth Rates and GDP per Capita Growth Rates


Association Between Average Annual Growth Rates in Population and GDP per Capita, Africa, 1975-2004

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

-10 -5 0 5 10 15

Population Growth Rate


GDP per Capita Growth Rate

Growing population

Growing economyDeclining populationDeclining economy

Botswana

Lesotho

Sierra Leone


Association Between Average Annual Growth Rates in Population and GDP per Capita, Asia, 1975-2004

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

-10 -5 0 5 10 15




Growing population


China

Kuwait Malaysia


Association Between Average Annual Growth Rates in Population and GDP per Capita, Europe, 1975-2004

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

-10 -5 0 5 10 15




Growing population


AlbaniaMoldova Slovenia


Association Between Average Annual Growth Rates in Population and GDP per Capita, Latin America, 1975-2004

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

-10 -5 0 5 10 15




Growing population


Nicaragua

Dominican Republic

Trinidad and Tobago


Use of Modern Contraception by Wealth

25

45

4

12

48

6

25

47

7

4547

27

60

50

Burkina Faso 2003 Guatemala 1999 Bangladesh 2004

Poorest Quintile 2nd 3rd 4th Richest Quintile

Married Women Ages 15-49 Using Modern Contraception

Percent



• Across the world, poor women use contraceptives at lower rates than wealthier women. However, strong family planning efforts can increase use of contraceptives in all wealth groups, even in low-income countries such as Bangladesh.

Notes on Use of Modern Contraception by Wealth


Use of Modern Contraception by Education

57

15

1

68

24

11

69

49

25

Colombia 2005 Mozambique 2003 Cameroon 2004

No Education Primary Secondary or Higher

Source: ORC Macro, Demographic and Health Surveys.


Percent


Use of Modern Contraception by Place of Residence

52

40

1510

46

29

36

Bangladesh 2004 Kenya 2003 Mali 2001 Benin 2001

Urban Rural



Percent


Child Mortality by Wealth

130

106

78

144

99

71

144

8676

139

80

47

92

70

39

Ethiopia 2005 Turkmenistan 2000 Guatemala 1999


Deaths Under Age 5 per 1,000 Live Births



• The mortality rate of children under age 5 varies between the wealthy and the poor in a country. People in lower wealth groups face more risk of their children dying than those in wealthier groups.

Notes on Child Mortality by Wealth


Child Mortality by Place of Residence

185

136

94

4130

253

202

117

47 52

Mali 2001 Burkina Faso2003

Kenya 2003 DominicanRepublic 2002

Philippines2003

Urban Rural




Infant Mortality by Wealth

78

101109

77

109100

80

98 95

58

7889

4534

66

Haiti 2005-2006 Cambodia 2005 Malawi 2004





Association Between Fertility and Education

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Percent of Girls Enrolled in Secondary School


Total Fertility Rate

Palestinian Territory

Uruguay

Morocco


• The share of secondary school age girls who are enrolled in school tends to be higher in countries with lower fertility rates.

Notes on Association Between Fertility and Education


Total Fertility Rate by Wealth

6.4

4.9

4.1

4.9

3.2

2.42.8

2.4

1.4

Ghana 2003 Cambodia 2005 Colombia 2005

Poorest Quintile Middle Quintile Richest Quintile

Average Number of Children Born to a Woman During Her Lifetime



Total Fertility Rate by Education

7.1

6.0

2.6

6.6

5.3

2.0

4.1

3.2

1.7

Mali 2001 Ghana 2003 Vietnam 2002



Average Number of Children Born to a Woman During Her Lifetime


Association Between Fertility and Poverty

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Percent of Population Living on <$2 per Day



Niger

Jordan

Mongolia


• Countries with a higher percentage of people living in poverty often have higher fertility rates.

Notes on Association Between Fertility and Poverty


Unmet Need for Family Planning by Wealth

11

27

33

7

20

38

6

15

37

4

13

36

2

12

24

Colombia 2005 Philippines 2003 Ethiopia 2005



Women with Unmet Need for Family Planning

Percent


• The poorest people often have the highest unmet need for family planning services. However, in some countries, such as Ethiopia, the poorest may have low unmet need because they desire large families. In countries with strong family planning programs, such as Colombia, unmet need for family planning is relatively low, especially when compared to neighboring countries.

• Women have an unmet need for family planning if they are married women of reproductive age (ages 15 to 49) who say they do not want more children or want to wait two or more years to have another child, yet are not using contraception.

Notes on Unmet Need for Family Planning By Wealth


Period of Potential Demographic Bonus


1989 2011

1980 2008

1986 2050

1964 2024

1974 2047

1965 2014

1969 2037

1965 2013

2005 2050

1985 2048

2014 2050

1950 1975 2000 2025 2050

Chad

Ghana

Malawi

China

India

South Korea

Bolivia

Brazil

Guatemala

Czech Republic

Poland


• Countries with increasing numbers of working-age adults relative to dependent elderly and children have an opportunity to increase employment, investment, and savings. This potential economic advantage in growth and well-being is called a demographic bonus.

• This graph shows the time period in which selected countries can realize this bonus. Whether or not the demographic bonus is realized depends on economic policies and the creation of economic opportunities.

Notes on Period of Potential Demographic Bonus


Trends in Number of Working-Age Adults per Dependent

0

1

2

3

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Eastern Europe

South-eastern Asia

South-central Asia

Latin America andthe Caribbean

Sub-Saharan Africa

Number of Working-Age Adults (Ages 15-64) per Dependent (Under Age 15 and Ages 65 and Over)

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.


Association Between Fertility and Female Labor Force Participation

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Female Labor Force Participation Rate 2004

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005; International Labor Organization, Yearbook of Labor Statistics 2006.

Total Fertility Rate 2000-2004

Turkey

DjiboutiPhilippines


• Female labor force participation tends to be higher in countries with lower fertility rates.

Notes on Association Between Fertility and Female Labor Force Participation


Adolescent Pregnancy and Motherhood by Wealth

46

32

24

29 29

20

1316

8

Philippines 2003 Tanzania 2004 Ethiopia 2005

Poorest Quintile Middle Quintile Richest Quintile


Women Ages 15-19 Who Are Mothers or Pregnant with Their First Child

Percent


Adolescent Pregnancy and Motherhood by Education

57

43

14

39

25

1210

4 4

Madagascar 2003-2004 Tanzania 2004 Jordan 2002




Percent


Adolescent Pregnancy and Motherhood by Place of Residence

28

20

13

74

49

29

22 22

10

Mali 2001 Tanzania 2004 Bolivia 2003 Ghana 2003 Morocco 2003-2004

Urban Rural



Percent


Delivery Assistance by Place of Residence

98

84 81 80

56

7971

57

30

8

Colombia 2005 Benin 2001 Indonesia2002/2003

Ghana 2003 Chad 2004

Urban Rural


Births Attended by a Doctor or Other Health Professional

Percent


Inequalities in Health Status

2.2

1.9

3.2

Under-5 Mortality Rate Women Malnourished* Children Stunted **

Latest Surveys 1990-2002Average ratio of the rate in poorest quintile to rate in richest quintile

Note: Averages are not weighted for population size.* BMI<18.5, defined as weight in kilograms divided by the square of height in meters.** Low height for age in relation to an international reference population of well-nourished children.

Source: D.R. Gwatkin, S. Rutstein, K. Johnson, E.A. Suliman, and A. Wagstaff, Initial Country-Level Information about Socioeconomic Differences in Health, Nutrition, and Population, Volumes I and II (Washington, DC: The World Bank, November 2003).

56 countries 45 countries 50 countries


Life Expectancy at Birth

65.4

75.6

63.4

51.0

World More DevelopedRegions

Less DevelopedCountries

Least DevelopedCountries

Note: More developed regions, according to the UN Population Division, include Australia, New Zealand, Europe, North America, and Japan. Less developed regions include Africa, Asia (excluding Japan), and Latin America and the Caribbean; 50 countries within these regions are classified as least developed.

Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.

2000-2005

Years


Childhood Mortality Among the Poor

66

105

114

121

128

149

183

189

206

257

Philippines 2003

Bolivia 2003

Lesotho 2004

Bangladesh 2004

Ghana 2003

Kenya 2003

Malawi 2004

Cameroon 2004

Burkina Faso 2003

Nigeria 2003

Poorest Economic QuintileDeaths under age 5 per 1,000 births



Adolescent Fertility Rate

271

168

81

215

126

63

206

100

65

141

6856

78

27 28

Madagascar Bolivia Turkey

Poorest Quintile 2nd Quintile 3rd Quintile 4th Quintile Richest Quintile

Births per 1,000 Women Ages 15-19



Fertility Among Poorer and Wealthier Women

7.4 7.3

5.2

4.44.4

3.6

1.7 1.8

Zambia 1996 Zambia 2001 Colombia 1995 Colombia 2000

Poorest Quintile Richest Quintile




Spousal Violence

5

21

31

40

10

1418

35

South Africa Haiti Peru Zambia


Women Who Have Ever Experienced Spousal ViolencePercent



Inequalities in the Use of Health Services

1.3

2.3

3.1

4.44.8

Use of OralRehydration

Therapy

ChildVaccinations

Use of AntenatalCare (3+ visits)

Use of ModernContraception

SkilledAssistance at

Delivery

Surveys 1992-2001Average rich/poor ratio

Note: Represents the average of the ratios of the richest quintile to poorest quintile, not weighted for population size and excluding countries with use less than 1 percent.

42 countries50 countries 53 countries 47 countries

53 countries



Childhood Vaccination Coverage

3

56

85

4

69

88

9

78

90

11

72

90

40

8391

Nigeria 2003 Philippines 2003 Egypt 2005


Children 12-23 Months Receiving Full Basic CoveragePercent



Contraceptive Users Who Obtain Supplies and Services From a Public Sector Program

9287

7568

64

52

67

52

28 31

India Vietnam Kenya Bolivia Egypt


Married Women UsersPercent



Delivery Assistance Among Women

72

51

46

39

34

31

30

25

21

4

Columbia 2005

Egypt 2005

Malawi 2004

Burkina Faso 2003

Lesotho 2004

Tanzania 2004/2005

Madagascar 2003/2004

Philippines 2003

Ghana 2003

Chad 2004

Poorest Economic QuintilePercent of births attended by skilled personnel



Births Attended by Skilled Personnel: Progress Mixed

33

78

23 20

9399

7077

Nicaragua 1997-1998

Nicaragua 2001 Uganda 1995 Uganda 2000-2001


Percent



Women Who Decide by Themselves to Seek Health Care

10

21

34 37 39

53

14

25

44

34

7177

Mali Bangladesh Cambodia Rwanda Peru Kazakhstan


Women Ages 15-49Percent

Note: Includes only those women who say that they alone have the final say in decisions to obtain their own health care.Source: D.R. Gwatkin, S. Rutstein, K. Johnson, E.A. Suliman, and A. Wagstaff, Initial Country-Level Information about Socioeconomic Differences in Health, Nutrition, and Population, Volumes I and II (Washington, DC: The World Bank, November 2003).


Outliers: Vietnam, Egypt, and Kazakhstan

58

9199

58

9299

58

9299

58

9499

52

9299

Vietnam: ModernContraceptive Use

Egypt: Child Immunizations Kazakhstan: SkilledDelivery Assistance


Percent



Health Expenditure Per Capita

30 77280

3,449

Low-IncomeCountries

Lower-Middle-Income Countries

Upper-Middle-Income Countries

High-IncomeCountries

Note: Low-income countries are classified as having a per capita GNI of US$825 or less. Lower-middle-income countries are classified as having a per capita GNI of US$826 to US$3255. Upper-middle-income countries are classified as having a per capita GNI of US$3256 to US$10,065. High-income countries are classified as having a per capita GNI of US$10,066 or greater.

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2006.

2003

US$


Population Living on Less Than US$2 per Day

2002Percent

50

7875

41

23 20

World South Asia Sub-SaharanAfrica

East Asia and thePacific

Latin Americaand the

Caribbean

Middle Eastand North

Africa

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2006.

Documents

© 2007 Population Reference Bureau Association Between Average Annual World Population Growth Rates and GDP per Capita Growth Rates, 1975-2004 Growth Rates