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Agenda
• US Hotel Trends
• Chain Scale Trends
• Top 25 vs All Other Markets
• Segmentation Trends
• Exchange Rate Impact
• US Forecast
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US Hotel Trends
Is the worst over? Yes
What are the risks in the outlook? ADR
What have we learned from these past two years? ???
What will you need to do to stay ahead? Buy Data
A Look Ahead: 2011
Total US - Key StatisticsFull Year 2010 - Preliminary
% Change
• Hotels 52k
• Room Supply 1.7 bn 2.0%
• Room Demand 1.0 bn 7.8%
• Occupancy 57.6% 5.7%
• A.D.R. $98 -0.1%
• RevPAR $56.50 5.6%
• Room Revenue $99.5 bn 7.7%
Total US - Key Statistics vs. 2007Full Year 2010 – Preliminary
% Change
• Room Supply 7.7%
• Room Demand - 1.3%
• Occupancy - 8.3%
• A.D.R. - 5.9%
• RevPAR - 13.7%
• Room Revenue - 7.1%
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0
Occupancy Increases Strongly Since March
*US Monthly OCC % Change, Jan 2007 –December 2010 (prelim.)
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0
*US Monthly ADR % Change, Jan 2007 – December 2010 (prelim.)
ADR Recovers Very Slowly (Between +1% and +2%)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0
*US Monthly RevPAR% Change, Jan 2007 – December 2010 (prelim.)
RevPAR Recovery is OCC Driven
Chain Scale Trends
Prelim 2010: Chain Scale ADR Growth Lacking
*US Chain Scales, ADR & OCC % Change, Prelim 2010
8.4
6.5
7.3
4.45.1 5.1
1.8
-0.7-1.4
-1.0 -0.8
-2.9
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Mid w/ F&B Mid w/o F&B Economy
Occupancy
ADR
1H vs 2H 2010 OCC Change – Midscale Recovered Later
*US Chain Scales, ADR & OCC % Change, Prelim 2010
10.4
7.67.2
1.2
2.8 2.8
6.7
5.4
7.5 7.5 7.47.3
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Mid w/ F&B Mid w/o F&B Economy
1st Half 2nd Half
1H vs 2H 2010 ADR Change – Encouraging!
*US Chain Scales, ADR & OCC % Change, Prelim 2010
-1.9
-3.6
-4.3
-2.5-2.8
-5.6
5.3
2.3
1.5
0.4
1.1
-0.3
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Mid w/ F&B Mid w/o F&B Economy
1st Half 2nd Half
A Major Change:
• Introducing “Upper Midscale” and
“Midscale”
• Reshuffle “Midscale with F&B” and
“Midscale without F&B”
• Based on: Chain Wide ADR
A Moment Of Silence …Midscale w/F&B Chains
90 Xanterra
130 Best Western
230 Clarion
290 Doubletree Club
334 Crystal Inn
545 Golden Tulip
561 Great Wolf Lodge
680 Holiday Inn
681 Holiday Inn Select
740 Howard Johnson
910 Little America
1082 Ohana Hotels
1094 Park Inn
1160 Quality Inn
1161 Quality
1162 Quality Suites
1200 Ramada
1202 Ramada Plaza
1240 Red Lion
1294 Room Mate
1337 Scanticon
1350 Westmark
1453 Sterling
1467 Sunspree Resorts
1715 Wyndham Garden Hotel
Midscale w/o F&B Chains
60 Americinn
180 Baymont Inns & Suites
195 Candlewood Suites
200 Cabot Lodge
240 ClubHouse
280 Comfort Inn
282 Comfort Suites
306 Country Inn & Suites
320 Crossing by GrandStay
400 Drury Inn
401 Drury Plaza Hotel
402 Drury Inn & Suites
403 Drury Lodge
404 Drury Suites
484 Extended Stay Deluxe
485 Fairfield Inn
557 Grandstay Residential
Suites
575 GuestHouse Inns
610 Hampton Inn
611 Hampton Inn Suites
647 Heartland Inn
683 Holiday Inn Express Hotel
709 Home2 Suites
790 InnSuites Hotels
834 Key West Inns & Suites
865 Lakeview
880 La Quinta Inns
882 La Quinta Inn & Suites
885 Lees Inn Of America
955 Mainstay Suites
1125 Phoenix Inn
1210 Ramada Limited
1281 Rode Inn
1354 Settle Inn
1380 Shilo Inn
1400 Signature Inn
1407 Silver Cloud
1423 Sleep Inn
1595 TownePlace Suites
1641 Vista
1650 Wellesley Inn
1687 Wingate By Wyndham
From Here On In …Upper Midscale 3 Palms
Ayres
Best Western Plus
Best Western Premier
Chase Suites
Clarion
Comfort Inn
Comfort Suites
Doubletree Club
Drury Inn
Drury Inn & Suites
Drury Plaza Hotel
Drury Suites
Fairfield Inn
Golden Tulip
Hampton Inn
Hampton Inn Suites
Holiday Inn
Holiday Inn Express
Holiday Inn Select
Home2 Suites
Isle of Capri
Key West Inns & Suites
Lexington
Ohana
Park Inn
Phoenix Inn
Ramada Plaza
Scanticon
Silver Cloud
Sunspree Resorts
TownePlace Suites
Westmark
Wyndham Garden Hotel
Xanterra
MidscaleAmerica`s Best Suites
AmericInn
Baymont Inns & Suites
Best Western
Cabot Lodge
Candlewood Suites
ClubHouse
Country Inn & Suites
Crossings by GrandStay
Crystal Inn
Drury Lodge
GrandStay Residential Suites
GuestHouse Inn
Hawthorn Suites by Wyndham
Heartland Inn
Howard Johnson
InnSuites Hotel
Lakeview
La Quinta Inn
La Quinta Inn & Suites
Lees Inn Of America
Mainstay Suites
Quality Inn (and Quality Suites)
Ramada (and Ramada Limited)
Red Lion
Rode Inn
Settle Inn
Shilo Inn
Signature Inn
Sleep Inn
Vagabond Inn
Vista
Wingate By Wyndham
Top 25 Markets
-14
-11
-8
-5
-2
1
4
7
10
2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0
Top 25
All other markets
OCC Decline / Recovery Almost In Lockstep
*Top 25 vs All Other Markets, OCC % Change, Jan 2007 –December 2010 (prelim.)
8.9%
-12%
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0
Top 25
All other markets
* Top 25 vs All Other Markets, ADR % Change, Jan 2007 –December 2010 (prelim.)
Top 25 ADR Dropped Steeper, Recovers (A Bit) Faster
3.9%
1.4%
-6.0%
-14.4%
Segmentation
Trends
YTD: Stronger Group Demand Rebound
*US Group & Transient, ADR & OCC % Change, YTD November 2010
5.7
1.9
8.3
-3.3
OCC ADR
Transient Group
November: ADRs Show Signs of Life (?)
7.3
4.4
9.9
1.6
OCC ADR
Transient Group
*US Group & Transient, ADR & OCC % Change, November 2010
Exchange Rate Impact
Markets US $ Euro €
Berlin 2.8 8.5
Dubai -7.1 -4.6
London 7.7 13.6
Los Angeles 1.2 6.1
New York 7.4 13.5
Paris 1.5 7.0
Rome -6.7 -0.9
Toronto 14.3 20.9
FX Impact Makes Europe More Affordable (& US More $$$)
*Selected Markets, ADR % Change in USD and Euro, YTD Oct 2010
US Forecast
Total US Active Development Pipeline („000 Rooms)
Change From Last Year
Phase
December
2010
December
2009 % Change
In Construction 54 106 - 50%
Final Planning 59 65 - 9%
Planning 217 246 - 12%
Active Pipeline 331 417 -21%
Source: STR/McGraw-Hill Construction Dodge Pipeline 2010 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
2011: The Year of The Hotel “Flasher”
Total United StatesKey Performance Indicator Outlook Scenario (% change vs. Prior Year)2011F
Hotel Industry Performance Scenarios
2011
Low
GrowthForecast
High
Growth
Supply 1.3 1.1 0.8
Demand 2.1 2.5 3.0
Occupancy 0.8 1.4 2.2
ADR 3.4 3.9 4.4
RevPAR 4.2 5.3 6.6
Total United StatesChain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2011F by Chain Scale
2011 Year End Outlook
Chain Scale
Occupancy(% chg)
ADR (% chg)
RevPAR (%chg)
Luxury 0.4 6.7 7.1
Upper Upscale 1.6 5.4 7.0
Upscale 2.1 4.4 6.5
Midscale w/ F&B -1.0 2.5 1.5
Midscale w/o F&B 1.8 4.0 5.8
Economy 1.3 2.3 3.6
Independent 2.4 3.7 6.1
Total United States 1.4 3.9 5.3
Total United StatesChain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2011F by Chain Scale
2011 Year End Outlook
Chain Scale
Occupancy(% chg)
ADR (% chg)
RevPAR (%chg)
Luxury 0.4 6.7 7.1
Upper Upscale 1.6 5.4 7.0
Upscale 2.1 4.4 6.5
Upper Midscale 2.0 4.0 6.0
Midscale 0.0 2.0 2.0
Economy 1.3 2.3 3.6
Independent 2.4 3.7 6.1
Total United States 1.4 3.9 5.3
2011 Year End RevPAR Forecast(as of September 2010 reports)
-10% to -5% -5% to 0% 0% to 5% 5% to 10% 10% to 15% 15% to
20%
Miami-Hialeah Boston Anaheim-Santa Ana Orlando
Denver Atlanta Phoenix
Los Angeles-Long Beach Chicago
Nashville Dallas
Oahu Island Detroit
San Diego Houston
San Francisco-San Mateo Minneapolis-St Paul
Washington DC New Orleans
New York
Norfolk-Virginia Beach
Philadelphia
Seattle
St Louis
Tampa-St Petersburg
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Click on “Industry Presentations”
