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第三章 層級分析法(AHP3.1 層級分析法(AHP)之來源及應用範圍 層級分析法(analytic hierarchy processAHP)是美國匹茲堡大學 教授 Thomas,L.Saaty,於 1971 年替美國國防部從事應變計劃問題的研 究中所提出,主要應用於不確定性(uncertainty)情況下及具有多個評 估準則的決策問題上。1972 年在美國國家科學基金會資助下,進行各 產業電力合理分配的研究。1972 年 7 月 Saaty 替埃及政府從事「無和 平、無戰爭」(no peace, no war)對埃及經濟、政治及軍事狀況的影響 研究時,開始將有關的判斷尺度化。1973 年 Saaty 將層級分析法(AHP應用在蘇丹運輸研究後,整個理論才趨成熟;其後在 1974 年到 1978 年 間,經過不斷應用、修正及驗證後,使整個理論更臻完備。在 1980 年 Saaty 遂將此理論整理成專書問世,後來並逐漸運用於企業、工程、公 共決策等各項領域。(林原宏,民國84 年) 根據 Saaty(1980)的經驗,層級分析法(AHP)可應用於下列 12 種類型決策問題(Decision-making Problem)上: 1.決定優先順序(Setting Priorities)。 2.產生替代方案(Generating a Set of Alternative)。 3.選擇最佳方案(Choosing a Best Policy Alternative)。 4.決定需求(Determining Requirements)。 5.資源分配(Allocating Resources)。 6.預測結果與風險評估(Predicting Outcomes and Risk Assessment)。 7.衡量績效(Measuring Performance)。 8.系統設計(Designing Systems)。 9.確保系統穩定(Ensuring System Stability)。 10.最佳化(Optimizing)。 11.規劃(Planning)。 12.解決衝突(Conflict Resolution)。 24

第三章 層級分析法(AHP - 國立交通大學機構典 …±¤級分析法(AHP)可在多目標(multi-object)與多評估準則的不 確定情況下,經由匯集專家學者的意見,把複雜的評估問題分析成簡明

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AHP

3.1 AHP

analytic hierarchy processAHP

Thomas,L.Saaty 1971

uncertainty

1972

1972 7 Saaty

no peace, no war

1973 Saaty AHP

1974 1978

1980

Saaty

84

Saaty1980AHP 12

Decision-making Problem

1.Setting Priorities

2.Generating a Set of Alternative

3.Choosing a Best Policy Alternative

4.Determining Requirements

5.Allocating Resources

6.Predicting Outcomes and Risk Assessment

7.Measuring Performance

8.Designing Systems

9.Ensuring System Stability

10.Optimizing

11.Planning

12.Conflict Resolution

24

AHPmulti-object

pairwise comparison matrix

eigen value

77

AHP

AHP

AHP

78

AHP

AHP

AHP

25

3.2 AHP

AHP

AHP 9

1.classescomponents

2.independence

3.

4.ratio scale

5. pairwise comparison

(positivereciprocal matrix)

6.transitivityA

BB C A C

A BB C A C

7.

consistency

8.weighting principle

9.

1989

26

3.3 AHP

1.

(brain storming)(interpretive structural modelling, ISM)

(hierarchical structural analysis,HSA)

(group method of structural modelling,GMSM) PATTERN

(planning assistance through technical evaluation of relevance numbers)

(eigenvector method,EM)(least squares

method,LSM)(geometric means method,GMM)Churchman

Scheffe AHP

2.

1focus

2

3 Satty

4

27

5

6

3.

2

1complete hierarch e e + 1

2incomplete hierarchy f f1

4.Saaty

1

2

3

4

28

3.4 AHP

AHP

AHP

(Ratio

Scale)

13579 246

8 AHP 3.1

3.1 AHP

,,,

Saaty ,T.L.,1980The Analytic Hierarchy ProcessMcGraw Hill,Inc.,New

York.

29

3.5 AHP

AHP 7

1.

2.

delphi methodbrainstorming method

3.

7

7 n/7

4.

1 9()

5.

30

A 1

12 1 12 1

21 2 21 2

1 2 1 2

1 11 1/ 1

1 1/ 1/ 1

n n

n n

n n n n

a a a aa a a

a a a a

=

L L

L L

L L L L L L L L

L L

a

n

a

2

1 1 1 2 1

2 1 2 2 2

1 2

/ / // / /

/ / /

n

n

n n n

w w w w w ww w w w w w

w w w w w w

L

L

L L L L

L

n A

1

1/ji ija =

i i-1

/ij i ja w w=

1 2, , nw w wK

6.

eigen value

eigen vector Wpriority vector

1

Saaty1982

1

1

1 1

n n

ijj

i nn

iji j

aw

a

=

= =

=

, 1, 2, ...i j n= K 3

2 max

A w w =uv uv uuv

( A w

31

) w

1 112 1

21 2 2

1 2 4 4

11/ 1

1/ 1/ 1

n

n

n n

w wa aa a w w

a a w w

=

L

L

L L L L L L

L

2

4

m a x

1 2max1 2

1 ...... nn

ww wn w w w

= + + +

5

7.

consistency ratio,CR

consistency ratio hierarchy,CRH Saaty

0.1

1consistency index, C.I.

max. .1

nC In

=

6

2consistency ratio, C.R.

. .. .

. .C IC RR I

= 7

random indexR.I. 1 9

3.2

32

3.2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

R.I. 0 0 0.58 0.9 1.12 1.24 1.32 1.41 1.45 1.49 1.51 1.48 1.56 1.57 1.58

Saaty ,T.L.,1980The Analytic Hierarchy ProcessMcGraw Hill,Inc.,New York.

3consistency ratio hierarchy, C.R.H

(consistency

index of the hierarchy, C.I.H.) (random index of

the hierarchy, R.I.H.)

. . .C I H = ( C.I.) 8

. . .R I H = () ( R.I.) 9

. . .. . .

. . .C I HC R HR I H

= 10

C.R.H.< 0.1

AHP 3.1

33

C.I. C.R. 0.1

3.1 AHP

Thomas L. Saaty,1980,The Analytic Hierarchy Process. McGraw-Hill, New

York, pp.105

34

3.6 Expert Choice

Expert ChoiceAHP

hierarchical structure

Expert Choice

Expert Choice 2000.

http://www.expertchoice.com

Expert Choice pairwiseExpert

Choice

"what-if"

Expert Choice

InternetExpert Choice

Group

InternetInternet

Expert Choice keypad

keypads 150

Internet Keypad

Expert Choice Group

35

Expert Choice Group

Expert Choice

1.

2.ModelView TreeView ClusterView

Information Documents

3.Tree View

1 objectives

2 TreeView ClusterView

3 Hierarchy

4.Information Documents

5.Notes

6.Data Grid Approaches

1 Utility Curves

2Step Function

3Ratings

4Direct Entry of Priorities

7. Data Conversion

8. Printing/ReportingMicrosoft Word Excel

http://www.ixon.com.tw/

Expert Choice AHP

(sensivitive)

(likelihood)(Assignment)

36

1.Performance

2.Dynamic

3.Gradient

4.Head-to-head

5.Two dimensional

92

Expert Choice

93

1.

1

2

3

2. 5

3.

1 3.2

3.2 Expert Choice

37

2 3.3

3.3 Expert Choice

38

35 3.4

3.4 Expert Choice 5

4 3.5

3.5 Expert Choice

39

5 3.6

3.6 Expert Choice

6 3.7

3.7 Expert Choice

40

7Expert Choice 94

Performance

3.8

3.8 Expert Choice Performance

Dynamic

3.9

3.9 Expert Choice Dynamic

41

Gradient3.10

3.10 Expert Choice Gradient

Head-to-head

3.11

3.11 Expert Choice

Head-to-head

42

Two dimensionalXY(X,Y)3.12

3.12 Expert Choice

Two dimensional

AHP

Ossadnik and Lange(1999)

AHP-based evaluation of AHP-Software

AHPAuto Man

Expert ChoiceHIPRE 12

AHP

AHP Expert

Choice AutoMan HIPREExpert Choice

Ossadnik and Lange1999

43