HOW DO POLITICAL PARTIES NOMINATE PRESIDENTIAL

CANDIDATES?

How do political parties nominate presidential candidates?

Note the specialized vocabulary! Difference between nominate and elect WHO nominates? Who decides how the nomination is going to

take place?

Answer: Parties nominate candidates AT NATIONAL PARTY CONVENTIONS in August of presidential election years.

What is a National Party Convention?

A meeting of delegates from each state Democratic or Republican party.

*SPECIALIZED VOCABULARY. Representatives to a party convention are called DELEGATES.

Conventions are:Big partiesWith lots of balloons and confettiOn TV with speeches from candidates

How are Convention delegates chosen?

The Democratic and Republican national parties establish some guidelines.

Each state party decides how to satisfy those guidelines and to choose its delegates. (or WHETHER to satisfy those guidelines)

Three basic processes.

How are delegates chosen?

Presidential Primary: A state-sponsored election to select delegates to national

nominating convention Can be open to any voter (“open”) or only to voters

registered in a party (“closed”) State party convention

A closed meeting of elected state party committee-members, who select national delegates

Caucus: A meeting where any affiliated voter can come and select

individuals to serve as delegates in favor of a candidate. Neighborhood delegatescounty convention County delegatesstate convention State delegatesNational Party Convention Delegates

Note:

Those voters who choose to register with a party and vote in a primary election are not average voters.

They are more knowledgeable about politics than average voters

They are more extreme in their opinions than average voters

A sampling of Republican party delegate selection

Date State/Territory Type Delegates[229]

Rule

Tue., January 3, 2012

Iowa nonbinding caucus

28 Proportional

Tue., January 10, 2012

New Hampshire

semi-closed primary

12 Proportional

Sat., January 21, 2012

South Carolina open primary

25 Winner Take All

Tue., January 31, 2012

Florida closed primary

50 Winner Take All

Sat., February 4, 2012

Nevada binding caucus

28 Convention

Tue., February 7, 2012

Colorado nonbinding caucus (closed)

36 Convention

Minnesota Caucus (open)

40 Convention

Tue., February 28, 2012

Arizona semi-closed

primary

29 WTA

Michigan open primary

30 District Winner Take All, Statewide Proportional

Sat., March 3, 2012

Washington binding caucus

43 District Winner Take All, Statewide proportional plus state convention

Tue., June 5, 2012

California top two primary

172

DELEGATES ARE CHOSEN ON DIFFERENT DATES

Date State/Territory

Tue., January 3, 2012 Iowa

Tue., January 10, 2012 New Hampshire

Sat., January 21, 2012 South Carolina

Tue., January 31, 2012 Florida

Sat., February 4, 2012 Nevada

February 4–11, 2012 Maine

Tue., February 7, 2012 Colorado, Minnesota

Tue., February 28, 2012 Arizona, Michigan

Sat., March 3, 2012 Washington,

Tue., March 6, 2012 Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont, Virginia

March 6–10, 2012 Wyoming

Tue., March 10, 2012 Kansas, Virgin Islands

Tue., March 13, 2012 Alabama, American Samoa, Hawaii, Mississippi

Sat., March 17, 2012 Missouri

Sun., March 18, 2012 Puerto Rico

Tue., March 20, 2012 Illinois

Sat., March 24, 2012 Louisiana

Tue., April 3, 2012 Maryland, Texas, Washington DC, Wisconsin

Tue., April 24, 2012 Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island

Tue., May 8, 2012 Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia

Tue., May 15, 2012 Nebraska, Oregon

Tue., May 22, 2012 Arkansas, Kentucky

Tue., June 5, 2012 California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota

Tue., June 26, 2012 Utah

To be announced Guam

To be announced Northern Mariana Islands

Why does the order matter?

Early states get:

More time from the candidates More promises More campaign spending in-state Their voters get to experience the

campaign

Iowa and New Hampshire go first…

A representative beginning?From the 2000 Census

Iowa New Hampshire

National average

Population 2,929,324(30th)

1,235,786(41st)

281,421,906

% White

Median income% Farm employmt

A representative beginning?From the 2000 Census

Iowa New Hampshire

National average

Population

% White 93.9% 96% 75.1%

Median income% Farm employmt

A representative beginning?From the 2000 Census

Iowa New Hampshire

National average

Population

% White

Median income

$39,469 $49,467 $41,994

% Farm employmt

A representative beginning?From the 2000 Census

Iowa New Hampshire

National average

Population

% White

Median income% Farm employmt

4.4% .9% 1.9%

Why is the calendar important?

Early states (traditionally) have determined the outcome due to…

Bandwagon effect (voters, donors, media)

Media coverage!!

Ability to raise more money if you do well early

So in states with later primaries, the race is often OVER

Does every state want those advantages? Heck, yes!

Date 2008 1996

Jan wk1 IA, WY

Jan wk2 NH,

Jan wk3 MI, NV

Jan wk4 SC, FL AK, HI

Feb wk1 ME, CA, NY, IL, NJ, MA, GA, MN, MO, TN, CO, AZ, AL, CT, AR, OK, KS, NM, UT, DE, ID, ND, AL, MT

LA

Feb wk2 LA, NE, WA, ME, DC, MD, VA, HI, WI

IA

Feb wk3 NH

Feb wk4 DE, AZ, ND, SD

Mar wk1 OH, RI, TX, VT CA, CT, GA, ME, MD, HI, MN, ND, MA, NY, OH, RI, VT

Frontloading: the process by which states move their primaries earlier .

How do candidates win state nominating contests?

Depends on the state!

Campaign depends on state

RETAIL POLITICS WHOLESALE POLITICS

Iowa/NH Small, early states Face-to-face

campaigning Shaking hands, kissing

babies Making specific promises

to local communities Cheap! Time-intensive

Big states Too many voters to meet Big rallies (goal is to get

free time on TV news) PAID TV ADS Expensive! Doesn’t take as much

time (Get out the vote efforts

still need organization)

How does a candidate win the nomination?

Ultimately, by convincing primary voters/party activists That s/he is a good representative of the party That s/he can win the general election

Convince them through: Campaigns (which cost money and time) Party elite endorsements Favorable media coverage ($$ again) (be the

frontrunner!)

Advantages of “winning” the “invisible primary”

What are the consequences of frontloading?

More big states and more states hold nomination contests early in the year

Candidates need more money and organization to compete

Media knows this

Many candidates weeded out before voters get a chance to see them

Current state of the Republican nomination race

5 candidates have dropped out due to poor showings in early states Tim Pawlenty, Michelle Bachmann, Herman

Cain, John Huntsman, Rick Perry Four major candidates remain

Newt Gingrich Mitt Romney Ron Paul Rick Santorum

Current state of the nomination race

Rick Santorum “won” Iowa (no delegates officially) 13 delegates according to AP (Romney gets 12)

Mitt Romney won New Hampshire (7 delegates) Ron Paul got 3 delegates

Newt Gingrich won South Carolina 23 delegates

Mitt Romney leads in Florida polls (votes on Jan. 31)

Next states are Nevada and Maine (Feb. 4)