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© Nuffield Trust 4 July 2012
Future funding scenarios for the NHS and social care in England
Adam RobertsResearch Analyst
www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/nhs-financial-challenge
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Background
• This presentation:
• Previous trends in health care spending
• Scenarios for health care funding
• Scenarios for social care funding
• Combined affect on other areas of public spending
• Also covered in the report:
• Assumptions
• International comparisons
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History of UK NHS spending
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Three NHS funding scenarios (real terms)
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Three NHS funding scenarios (% of national income)
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Two social care funding scenarios (real-terms)
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Trade-off between NHS and other public service spending given health and social care spending, 2015/16 to 2021/22
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Trade-off between NHS and other public service spending given health and social care spending, 2015/16 to 2021/22
© Nuffield Trust
Trade-off between NHS and other public service spending given health and social care spending, 2015/16 to 2021/22
© Nuffield Trust
Trade-off between NHS and other public service spending given public and social care spending, 2015/16 to 2021/22
© Nuffield Trust
Trade-off between NHS and other public service spending given public and social care spending, 2015/16 to 2021/22
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Trade-off between non-NHS spending and tax increases/welfare cuts given various NHS/social care funding scenarios, 2015/16 to 2021/22
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Trade-off between non-NHS spending and tax increases/welfare cuts given NHS funding levels, 2015/16 to 2021/22
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Conclusions
• From 2010/11 to 2014/15 the NHS faces its tightest budget of last 50 years
• Beyond then, even maintaining share of national income will be tough
• Period of austerity likely to extend well into the next decade
• Only a long-term freeze in other public service budgets/large tax increases would allow NHS funding to grow at historic levels
• Pressures on health and social care likely to rise (see future reports)
• Without unprecedented productivity gains, there is likely to be a rapid growth in the gap between the demand for care and the ability to provide high-quality services
© Nuffield Trust 4 July 2012
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