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© OECD/IEA - 2007
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
Energy and Energy and Climate Climate
Outlook Outlook Dr. Fatih Birol
Chief EconomistInternational Energy Agency
© OECD/IEA - 2007
The Reference Scenario: World Primary Energy Demand
Global demand grows by more than half over the next quarter of a century, with coal use rising most in absolute terms
Oil
Coal
Gas
BiomassNuclear
Other renewables
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mto
e
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Reference Scenario: Increase in World Oil Supply, 2004-2030
The share of OPEC in world oil supply increases sharply as conventional non-OPEC production peaks towards the middle of
next decade
S.Arabia
Iraq
Iran
Other
0
5
10
15
20
25
OPEC conventional Non-conventional Non-OPECconventional
mb/
d
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Proven Natural Gas Reserves
Gas reserves are concentrated in FSU and MENA regions – Russia and Iran together account almost half of global gas reserves
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Annual Increase in Coal Demand
Global coal demand in the recent years has grown much faster than previously – mainly driven by China
milli
on to
nnes
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
China Rest of the world
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Reference Scenario:
Increase in Power Sector CO2 Emissionsby Fuel, 2005-2030
China and India account for almost 60% of the increase in power sector CO2 emissions to 2030
- 500
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
OECD Transitioneconomies
China India Rest ofdevelopingcountries
milli
on to
nnes
Coal Oil Gas
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Reference Scenario:Energy-Related CO2 emissions by Region
China to overtake US as the world’s biggest emitter, though OECD countries bear a major responsibility as to cumulative carbon
concentration
0
3
6
9
12
15
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Gig
aton
nes
of C
O 2
United States
China
Rest of non-OECD
Rest of OECD
© OECD/IEA - 2007
CO2 Emissions Growth 2004-2030
2004
2030
2004
2030
2004
2030
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
China India OECD
mill
ion
ton
nes
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14to
nn
es p
er ca
pita
Emissions growth in China is twice as large as in the OECD, but in 2030 per capita emissions will still be lower than current OECD
ones
© OECD/IEA - 2007
The Next Ten Years Will Determine Our Energy Future
Investment over the next decade will lock in technology for up to 60 years
China and India - growing at breakneck speed fueled by energy
OECD power plants – significant portion reaching to retirement
Security of supply is under threat because the balance of power is shifting
Oil production in non-OPEC countries is set to peak,
Gas production to peak in OECD
© OECD/IEA - 2007
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
Alternative Policy Alternative Policy Scenario Scenario
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Improved end-use efficiency accounts for over two-thirds of avoided emissions in 2030 in the APS
Alternative Policy Scenario
Reference Scenario
Increased nuclear (10%)Increased renewables (12%)Power sector efficiency & fuel (13%) Electricity end-use efficiency (29%)
Fossil-fuel end-use efficiency (36%)
26
30
34
38
42
2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Gt o
f CO
2
The Alternative Policy Scenario: Key Policies for Global CO2 Reduction
© OECD/IEA - 2007
The Alternative Policy Scenario : Key policies that Make a Global Difference
A dozen policies in the US, EU & China account for around 40% of the global emissions reduction in 2030 in the Alternative Policy
Scenario
Energy efficiency Power generation
US
Tighter CAFE standards Improved efficiency in residential & commercial sectors
Increased use of renewables
EU
Increased vehicle fuel economy Improved efficiency in electricity use in the commercial sector
Increased use of renewables Nuclear plant lifetime extensions
China
Improved efficiency in electricity use in industry Improved efficiency in electricity use in the residential sector
Increased efficiency of coal-fired plants Increased use of renewables Increased reliance on nuclear
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Focus on European Union: Electricity Investment, 2005-2030
Investment needs are $139 billion lower over the projection period
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300bi
llion
dol
lars
(200
5)
Additional demand-side investment Avoided supply-side investment Net change in electricity investment
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Reference Scenario
26
30
34
38
42
2004 2030
Gt o
f CO 2
Alternative Policy Scenario
Efficiency of electricity use CCS and efficiency in industry Biofuels and hybrids
Efficiency of power plants Nuclear power-plants Renewables-based generation
CCS in power generation 2015
Going Beyond the Alternative Policy Scenario: BAPS CO2 Emissions Savings
BA
PS additional reduction goal of 8 G
t of CO
2
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Some concluding thoughts…
The Reference Scenario projects a vulnerable, dirty and expensive global energy system
Demand side efficiency – “ easier “ with large potential
Large-hydro and nuclear - important parts of the solution
Numbers speak for themselves : no sustainable/meaningful solution to climate change problem without having China and India on board
Strong political will and urgent government action is needed to create clear incentives to change existing investment patterns