© OECD/IEA 2011

Electricity: a status report

Laszlo Varro, Head, Gas, Coal and Power Markets DivisionInternational Energy Agency

Electricity Is not going out of fashion Is the key battleground of climate policy Has been getting more, rather than less,

carbon-intensive globally Is the key driver for gas and coal demand Has a transformative efficiency potential in

Russia

© OECD/IEA 2011

State of decarbonization: first stop digging

© OECD/IEA 2011

Decarbonization race: a troika with only one horse pulling

Status of low carbon technologies 1 Nuclear: Back to Square 1 after Fukushima?

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Average yearly increase, WEO 2010 450 ppm

New nuclear capacity construction starts, MW

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Status of low carbon technologies 2 CCS: serious risk of delayed deployment

Status of low carbon technologies 3 Renewables: strong growth but not always on

the best places

German moratorium: European scale effects

Moderate, 10% price reaction due to excess capacities

13EU power prices still below the level that would recover investment in new plant

© OECD/IEA 2011

Gas will be needed to deliver CO2 reductions

Current Policy 20220

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othersRenewablesnuclearGasCoal

German electricity mix with 10% demand reduction, no nuclear, 35% renewables and CO2 at the target level

© OECD/IEA 2011

US: the Golden Age of Gas has arrived

280 Twh coal to gas switch in 3 years

China: with energy efficiency efforts and the biggest nuclear and renewable program in the world

Coal fired power generation still grows by over 100 twh/year

Russia: (Re)Search to improve power sector

© OECD/IEA 2011

How to make it happen

Adam Smith 1776: peace, taxes, justice

IEA 2011(ongoing work on Russian power sector reform): elimination of gas subsidies, proper price signals for gas and electricity, market design