- Poland - World Banksiteresources.worldbank.org/POLANDEXTN/Resources/304794... · Poland at a dance 3/4/05 ... Total imports (cif) Food Fuel and energy Capital goods ... Memo: Reserves

Annex A2 Page 1 o f 2

(average annual growth)

Poland at a dance 3/4/05

POVERTY and SOCIAL

2003 Population, mid-year (millions) GNI per capita (Atlas method, US$) GNI (Atlas method, US$ billions)

Average annual growth, 1997-03

Population (%) Labor force (%)

Most recent estimate (latest year available, 1997-03) Poverty (% of population below national poverty line) Urban population (% of total population) Life expectancy at birth (years) Infant mortality (per 1,000 live births) Child malnutrition (% of children under 5) Access to an improved water source (“A of population) Illiteracy (% ofpopulation age 15+) Gross primary enrollment (% of school-age population)

Male Female

KEY ECONOMIC RATIOS and LONG-TERM TRENDS 1983

GDP (US$ billions) Gross domestic investmenffGDP Exports of goods and services/GDP Gross domestic savingslGDP Gross national savirigs/GDP

Current account balance/GDP Interest payments/GDP Total debffGDP Total debt service/exports Present value of debffGDP Present value of debffexports

1983-93 1993-03 (average annual growth) GDP .. 4.4 GDP per capita 4.4 Exports of goods and services .. 10.9

Poland

38.2 5,170 199.7

-0.1 0.4

18 63 74

8

97 0

100 100 99

1993

85.9 15.6 22.9 16.5 15.6

-5.8 1 .o

52.6

2002

1.4 1.5 4.8

Europe 8. Central

Asia

476 2,160 1,030

0.1 0.4

63 69 25

91 3

102 103 101

2002

191.3 18.9 29.7 15.5 16.3

-2.6 1.2

36.3

2003

3.8 3.9

13.0

Upper- middle- income

331 5,040 1,668

1.2 1.8

75 73 19

90 7

105 106 105

2003

209.6 18.9 33.9 16.3 16.9

-2.0 1.2

32.6

2003-07

4.1 4.2 7.7

I 1 Development diamond’

~

Life expectancy

Gross per primary

~ capita nrollment I

I 1

Access to improved water source

-Poland ~ Upper-middle-income group

Economic ratios.

Trade

- Investment Domestic __ savings

Indebtedness

Poland - ~ Upper-middle-income group

STRUCTURE of the ECONOMY

(“A of GDP) Agriculture 6 6 Industry 40 0 300 304

Manufacturing 174 176 Services 534 669 6

Private consumption 63 0 General government consumption 20 4 190 185 Imports of goods and services 22 0 330 364

1983 4993 2002 2003 Growth of Investment and GDP (x)

GDI ‘ O - G D P -

The diamonds show four key indicators in the country (in bold) compared with its income-group average. If data are missing, the diamond will be incomplete.

Annex A2 Paee 2 o f 2

Poland

IPRICES and GOVERNMENT FINANCE

Domestic prices (% change) Consumer prices Implicit GDP deflator

~ Government finance ~ (% of GDP, includes current grants) Current revenue Current budget balance Overall surplusldeficit

]TRADE

(US$ millions) Total exports (fob)

Food and Live Animals Machinery and Transport Equipment Manufactures

Total imports (cif) Food Fuel and energy Capital goods

Export price index (1995=100) 'Import price index (1995=100) ITerms of trade (1995=100)

BALANCE of PAYMENTS

1 (US$ millions) Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services

1 Resource balance

Net income ,Net current transfers

1 Current account balance

'Financing items (net) iChanges in net reserves

Memo: Reserves including gold (US$ millions) Conversion rate (DEC, local/US$)

'EXTERNAL DEBT and RESOURCE FLOWS i US$ m///ions) ITotal debt outstanding and disbursed

1 IDA IBRD

'Total debt service 1 IDA IBRD

Composition of net resource flows Official grants Official creditors Private creditors Foreign direct investment Portfolio equity

/World Bank program j Commitments

Disbursements Principal repayments

1983 1993

.. 35.3

.. 30.6

.. 53.3

.. 0.6 ,. -5.0

1983 1993

14,143

.. 18,834

.. 1.838

.. 2,346

.. 157

.. 106

.. 148

1983 1993

.. 15,455

.. 17,561

.. -2,106

.. -3,394

.. 483

.. -5,017

.. 3,879

.. 1.138

.. 4,281

.. 1.8

1983 1993

.. 45,176

.. 1,073 0

.. 1,695 64 0

7

I 1 Development Economics 3/4/05

.. 912

.. 176 44

., 1,715

.. 400

.. 1,046

.. 317 0

.. 317 64

.. 253

2002

1.9 1.2

37.5 -3.9 -6.3

2002

41,019 2,968

34,865 55,109 2,752 5,038 8,187

86

101 a5

2002

56,777 63,177 -6,400

-1,887 3,280

-5,007

5,642 -635

29,794 4.1

2002

69,521

0

13,489 312

0

2,385

0 -1,068 1,774

0 0

15 172 206 -33 106

-140

2003

0.8 0.7

39.2 -3.4 -5.8

2003

53,728 4,084

68,177 39,043

3,155 6,206

10,056

a7 91 95

2003

72,173 77,379 -5,206

-3,112 4,233

-4,085

5,280 -1,195

34,168 3.9

2003

68,275 2,453

0

374 0

112 275

-163 99

-262

Inflation (%) 20 -

-

I

98 99 00 01 02 03

-GDP defiator +CPI

I Export and import levels (US$ mill.)

I80 000 - '70 000 - ,BO 000 - 50 000 -

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 I

I Current account balance to GDP ( O h )

-8 -

' Composition of 2003 debt (US$ mill.)

A - IBRD B - IDA D ~ Other multilateral F - Pnvate C . IMF G -Short-term

E - Bilateral

Annex B2 Page 1 o f 1

Selected Indicators* of Bank Portfolio Performance and Management

As of March 1,2005

Indicator 2002 2003 2004 2005 Portfolio Assessment Number o f Projects Under Implementation a 12 11 10 11 Average Implementation Period (years) Percent of Problem Projects by Number Percent of Problem Projects by Amount Percent o f Projects at Risk by Number Percent of Projects at Risk by Amount Disbursement Ratio (%) e Portfolio Management CPPR during the year (yesho) Supervision Resources (total US$)

b 4.2 a, c 8.3 a, c 14.6

a, d 8.3 a, d 14.6

29.8

no 1,200

5.3 9. I

15.6 9.1

15.6 30.5

no 852

4.4 20.0

6.6 20.0

6.6 40.4

no 740

3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

67.0

no 910

Average Supervision (US$/project) 100 77 74 78

Memorandum Item Since FY 80 Last Five FYs

Proj Eval by OED by Amt (US$ millions) 3,275.0 742.8 20.0 10.0 12.7 0.5

Proj Eval by OED by Number 30 10

%of OED Projects Rated U or HU by Number % of OED Projects Rated U or HU by Amt

a. As shown in the Annual Report on Portfolio Performance (except for current FY). b. Average age of projects in the Bank's country portfolio. c. Percent of projects rated U or HU on development objectives (DO) and/or implementation progress (IP). d. As defined under the Portfolio Improvement Program. e. Ratio o f disbursements during the year to the undisbursed balance of the Bank's portfolio at the

beginning of the year: Investment projects only. * Al l indicators are for projects active in the Portfolio, with the exception of Disbursement Ratio,

which includes all active projects as well as projects which exited during the fiscal year.


IBRD Program Summary

As of M a r c h 1,2005

Proposed IBRD Lending Program

P r o j ID Fiscal year

Strategic

(H/M/L)

Implementation ‘I Risks (HIM//)

uS$(M) Rewards

2005 Hard Coal Mine Closure 1 / 100.0 H Road Maintenance and Rehabilitation I1 130.5 H Subtotal 230.5

2006 Road Maintenance and Rehabilitation I11 21 195.0 Post-Accession Rural Support 65.0 Odra River Basin Flood Protection 2/ 130-190 Subtotal 390-450

H H H

a. For each project, indicate whether the strategic rewards and implementation risks are expected to be High (H), Moderate (M) or Low (L).

H H

H M L

l / Approved on July 1,2004. Operation was included in the previous CAS. 2/ These projects are indicative and wil l be finalized during discussions for the 2006 annual business plan.


IFC & MIGA Program, FY2002-2005

2002 2003 2004 2005

IFC approvals (US$m) 0.00 45.82 47.56

Sector (YO) Pulp & Paper Wholesale and Retai Total

Investment instrument(%) Loans Equity Quasi-Equity Other Total

MIGA guarantees (US$m)

0

100

100 100 100

100 100

0 100 100

0.00 0.00 0.00

0

0


Summary of Nonlending Services

As o f March 1,2005

Product Completion FY Audience Objective

Recent completions Knowledge Economy Assessment Living Standards Assessment Cities o f Change Pensions in Multipillar System Factoring Conference Investment Climate Assessment Anticorruption Policy Dialogue (ESW) Country Financial Accountability Assessment Audit Review TA Regional Policy Review

04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04

GIP GIP GiP G

GIPD GIP GIP

GIDIB G

GIP

K WPD KITS PS

W PS W PSI PD

WPD WPS

PS WPD

Underway and Planned EU8 Cross-country Public Finance Reform 05-06 G,B K, PS

Health Reform Implementation 05-06 G,B K, PS Railway Reform Implementation policy dial 05-06 G K, PS Public Administration Improvement Program 05-06 G,B K, PS

EU8 Quarterly Economic Reports 05-06 GIDIB WPS

IDF Accounting and Auditing Reform 05-06 GIDIB WPS ROSC Updates (Corporate Governance and Accounting & Auditing Modules) 05 GIDIB WPS Influence o f the Legal System on the Financial Market in Poland 05 GIDIB WPS NDP 2007-13 policy dialogue 05-06 G,B K, PS Financial Savices Policy Notes 05 G,B K, PS Public Environmental Financing 05-06 G P K, PS Energy Efficiency 05 DIPD PS Renewable Energy 06 DIPD PS Energy Policy Dialogue 05-06 DPD PS PPPs for Roads 05-06 GIDIB WPS EU8 Cross-country Labor Market 05-06 GIDIB WPS CGE Model Building 05-06 G,B K, PS

a. Government, donor, Bank, public dissemination. b. Knowledge generation, public debate, problem-solving.


Poverty and Social Development Indicators

Europe & Upper- Central middle-

Asia income

zoo0

474.9 322.0 0.06 1.22 63.2 74.8

1.6 2.5

Poland 1975 1985 1995 2000 2002

POPULATION Total population, mid year (millions) 34.0 37.2 38.6 38.6 38.2

Urban population (% of total) 55.4 59.3 61.3 61.7 61.8 Fertility rate, total (births per woman) 2.3 2.3 1.6 1.3 1.3

Population growth (annual %) 0.98 0.78 0.11 -0.03 -0.04

POVERTY (% ofpopulation) National headcount index

Urban headcount index Rural headcount index

INCOME GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$) .. 2,890 4,440 4,670 Consumer price index (1 995 = 100) 0.1 0.3 100.0 182.1 195.7 Food price index (1995 = 100) 0.4 100.0 162.2 168.9

2,030 5,190

INCOME/CONSUMPTION DISTRIBUTION GIN1 index Income share held b y lowest quintile Income share held b y highest quintile

31.6* .. 7.3* ..

42.5* ._

SOCIAL INDICATORS Public expenditure Health (% o f GDP) Education (% o f GDP) Social security and welfare (% o f GDP) Net primary school enrollment rate (% of age group)

Total Male Female

Access to an improved water source (‘3’3 ofpopirlation with access) Total

Urban Rural

Immunization rate (96 of children nges 12-23 months)

Measles DPT

Child malnutrition (% under 5 years) Life expectancy at birth (Years)

Total Male Female

Mortality Infant (per 1,000 live births) under-5 (per 1,000) Adult (15-59)

Male (per 1,000 male adults) Female (per 1,000 female adults)

Maternal mortality ratio (per 100,000 live binhs)

4.20 .. 4.70 4.85 5.05 ..

19.91 17.40 ..

4.25 4.29*

3.53 4.38

96.5 96.5 96.4

99.4 .. 99.7 .. 99.0 ..

97.7 .. 97.6 .. 97.8 ..

93.2 93.0 93.5

91 ._ 96 .. 82 77

92 96 97 98 94 96 98 99

94 93

89 91

71 67 74

71 72 73 74 67 68 69 70 75 76 78 78

68 64 73

73 70 16

14 9 8 15 9 9

32 38

20 23

217 101

254 250 226 .. 105 94 88 ..

13 ..

317 137 58

197 103 67

Births attended by skilled health staff ( X of total)

*) 1999 data

Source: SIMA on-line W D I Database


Key Economic Indicators

Estimate Projected Indicator 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

National accounts (as YO of GDP) Gross domestic product”

Agriculture Industry Services

Total Consumption Gross domestic fixed investment

Government investment Private investment

Exports (GNFS)b Imports (GNFS)

Gross domestic savings Gross national savings‘

Memorandum items Gross domestic product (US$ million at current prices) GNF’ per capita (US$, Atlas method)

Real annual growth rates (“A) Gross domestic product at market prices Gross Domestic Income

Gross domestic product at market prices Total consumption Private consumption

Real annual per capita growth rates (“A)

Balance of Payments (US% millions) E X ~ O ~ ~ S (GNFS)~

Merchandise FOB Imports (GNFS)~

Merchandise FOB Resource balance Net current transfers Current account balance

Net private foreign direct investment Long-term loans (net) Official Private

Other capital (net, incl. errors & o d s s i o n s )

Change in reservesd

Memorandum items Resource balance (% of GDP) Real annual growth rates Merchandise exports (FOB)

Primary Manufactures

Merchandise imports (CIF)

100 100 100 100 4 4 3 3

33 31 30 30 63 65 67 67 82 83 84 84 24 21 19 18 3 3 3 3

21 18 16 15

28 28 30 34 34 31 33 36 18 17 16 16 19 18 16 17

166548 185787 191310 209563

4.0 1 .o 1.4 3.7 2.5 1 .o 1.3 3.4

3.9 1.0 2.5 3.8 2.8 1.7 2.7 2.4 3.1 1.8 3.3 3.1

46289 35902 57204 482 10

2380

9358 1379 -456 1835 -121 -618

-10915

-9998

51419 4 1664 58275 49324 -6856 2889

-5357 5624 2263

6393 -2967

437

-4130

56777 46742 63 177 53991

3280

4361 1218

2285 63

-6400

-5007

-1068

-635

72173 6 1007 77379 66732 -5206 4233

-4085

461 1 307 1

-1810 4881

-2402 -1 195

-6.6 -3.7 -3.3 -2.5

100 100 100 100 3 3 3 2

30 30 29 29 67 68 68 68 82 81 81 81 18 19 19 19 3 3 3 3

15 15 15 16

39 40 40 40 41 41 40 41

18 19 19 19 18 19 19 20

242247 294972 321711 349840

5.4 5.0 4.8 5.6 5.4 5.0 4.8 5.6

5.5 5.1 4.9 5.7 2.8 3.3 3.7 4.3 3.2 3.8 4.2 4.9

92475 80337 96708 84352

2300

5633 2014

64 1950 3200

-4233

-362 1

-1208

101 169 88486

107757 93761

2800

6000 -5336 -1210 -4126 2700

-6589

-6784

-540

109550 95935

1 18234 103467

3300

7000 -5964 -2202 -3762 2200

-34

-8684

-965 1

121301 107032 133038 117013

3300

7500

-1 1738

-12594

-4372 -3128 -1245 2200 2120

-1.6 -2.3 -3.0 -3.6


Key Economic Indicators (Continued)

Estimate Projected Indicator 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Public finance (as YO of GDP at market prices)e Current revenues 42.1 42.2 42.3 43.3 42.8 44.1 44.4 43.6 Current expenditures 40.3 43.3 43.1 44.2 44.5 44.2 43.7 42.2 Current account surplus (+) or deficit (-) 1.8 -1.1 -0.7 -0.9 -1.7 -0.1 0.7 1.4 Capital expenditure 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.4 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.0 Foreign financing -1.2 -2.9 0.4 0.7 0.4 -0.3 0.0 -0.5

Monetary indicators M2/GDP Growth o f M2 ("7) Private sector credit growth / total credit growth ("7)

Price indices( yR02 =loo) Merchandise export price index Merchandise import price index Merchandise terms oftrade index Real exchange rate (US$/LCVf

Real interest rates Consumer price index (% change) GDP deflator (% change)

41.5 43.2 41.0 41.4 42.1 42.9 43.6 44.4 11.8 9.2 -2.4 5.5 9.8 9.5 9.3 9.0 73.2 78.2 275.3

121.3 138.0 133.6 120.5 130.0 131.0 132.0 133.0

10.1 5.5 1.9 0.8 3.5 3.0 2.7 2.5 6.7 4.0 1.2 0.7 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.4

a. GDP at factor cost b. "GNFS" denotes "goods and nonfactor services." c. Includes net unrequited transfers excluding official capital grants. d. Includes use o f IMF resources. e. Consolidated General Govemment, ESA95 methodology f. "LCU' denotes "local currency units." An increase in US$/LCU denotes appreciation


Key Exposure Indicators

Actual Estimate( Projected Indicator 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Total debt outstanding and 60671 63259 63275 69521 68275 72260 73715 68392 63158 disbursed (TDO) (US$m)a

Net disbursements (US$m)a 1741 3522 999 2624 2094 2152 1344 949 825

Total debt service (TDS) 8374 10233 15382 13489 9633 9512 9659 10787 11924 (US$mIa

Debt and debt service indicators

(%I TDO~XGS~ 150.7 130.3 117.1 118.4 91.6 77.7 72.9 68.1 63.5 TDOiGDP 36.9 38.0 34.1 36.3 32.5 31.0 29.2 27.3 25.6 TDSiXGS 20.8 21.1 28.5 23.0 13.0 10.1 9.4 10.6 12.0 ConcessionaliTDO 12.0 10.7 9.8 9.5 8.7 7.2 6.6 5.7 4.1

IBRD exposure indicators (%) IBRD DS/public DS 14.9 9.4 5.2 8.4 11.1 9.3 8.8 7.3 7.4 Preferred creditor DSipublic 14.9 9.4 5.2 8.4 11.1 9.7 9.9 8.9 9.8 DS (%)' IBRD DSiXGS 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 IBRD TDO (US$mld 2185 2229 2211 2385 2453 1912 1992 2134 2300

O f which present value o f guarantees (US$m)

Share o f IBRD portfolio (%) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 IDA TDO (USSmld 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

IFC (US$m) Loans Equity and quasi-equity i c

MIGA MIGA guarantees (USSm)

a. Includes public and publicly guaranteed debt, private nonguaranteed, use o f IMF credits and net short-

b. "XGS" denotes exports o f goods and services, including workers' remittances. c. Preferred creditors are defined as IBRD, IDA, the regional multilateral development banks, the IMF, and the

Bank for Intemational Settlements. d. Includes present value o f guarantees. e. Includes equity and quasi-equity types o f both loan and equity instruments.

term capital.

Annex B8 Page 1 o f2

Operations Portfolio (IBRD & Grants)

As of March 1,2005

Closed Projects 32 IBRD/IDA * Total Disbursed (Active) 1,014.39

108.70 Total Disbursed (Closed) 3,397.63

2,670.13 4,4 12.02 2,778.84

Total Undisbursed (Active) 247.70 Total Undisbursed (Closed) 28.99 Total Undisbursed (Active + Closed) 276.69

o f which has been repaid

of which has been repaid

o f which has been repaid Total Disbursed (Active + Closed)

Difference Between Last PSR Expected and Actual

Project Kame

Bielsko-Biala Water Flood Emergency Roads I1 Rural Development Krakow Energy Efficiency Rail Restructuring Seaway Port Modemization Hard Coal Social Mitigation I Road Maintenance & Rehabilitation Coal Mine Closure Energy Efficiency (GEF) Overall Result

Prqiect ID

PO08595 PO53796 PO08593 PO58202 PO65059 PO40795 PO086 15 PO665 12 PO78 170 PO83093 PO70246

Supervision Original Amount in Rating US% Millions

D O

HS S S S S S S S S S S

- I P

HS S S S S S S S S S S

- FY

1996 1998 1998 2000 2001 2001 200 1 2004 2004 200s 200s

IBRD

21.5 200.0 300.0 120.0 15.0

101.0 38.5

200.0 126.0 100.0

1,222.0

GRANT Undisb.

2.5 16.1 17.2 10.3 12.8 0.2

17.0 51.0 9.0

111.5 11.0 11.0 11.0 258.7

Disbursements

Orig. Frm Rev'd

4.54 1.58 16.14 16.14 9.61 9.61

-1.05 -8.45 7.30

8.88

4.98 0.29 0.10

-0.81

-133.43

-83.46 18.89


Statement of IFC's Held and Disbursed Portfolio

As of January 31,2005

(In US Dollars Millions)

Held Disbursed

FY Approval Company Loan Equity Quasi Partic Loan Equity Quasi Partic 1996 Baltic Malt 0.00 0.00 1.96 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.87 0.00 1997 CPF 1999 ESCO Polska 1998 Global Hotels

1993 PEF-Poland

1993 Pilkington 2004 Schwarz Group

1995/97/98/00/03/04 Intercell

1994/1996 Peters

Total Portfolio:

0.00 1.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.21 0.00 0.00 4.35 0.00 5.84 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.64 0.00

54.43 3.69 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.69 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.55 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.55 0.00 0.00 0.00

54.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 54.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 116.16 7.01 7.80 0.00 57.38 6.91 5.51 0.00

ADDrovals Pending commitment Loan Equity Quasi Partic

2003 Intercell-Expan. 0 0 0 0

Total Pending Commitment: 0 0 0 0

Documents

- Poland - World Banksiteresources.worldbank.org/POLANDEXTN/Resources/304794... · Poland at a dance 3/4/05 ... Total imports (cif) Food Fuel and energy Capital goods ... Memo: Reserves