« The voice of the European Service Industries for ......« The voice of the European Service Industries for International Trade Negotiations in Services » Pascal&Kerneis&–Managing&Director&

« The voice of the European Service Industries for International Trade Negotiations in Services »

Pascal Kerneis – Managing Director ESF (European Services Forum)

Business Breakfast Forum In Pursuit of Services Trade and Investment Outcomes in the Australia/

European Union FTA

Friday 2 December Corrs Chambers Westgarth, 8 Chifley Square,

Corner of Hunter and Elizabeth Streets, SYDNEY - Australia


Table of content 1)  What is ESF? 2)  Interna:onal trade & investment in services 3)  EU Trade Policy for Services and Investments

4)  Impact of Brexit on EU Trade Policy for Services and Investment

5)  EU-‐Australia FTA : What should be its content for Trade and investment in services?

A.  Market access Pillar B.  Regulatory disciplines and coopera:on C.  Movement of natural persons

D.  Mutual recogni:on of qualifica:on


1) What is ESF?


•  Insurance •  Banking •  Business services: IT & Computer;

consul:ng, adver:sing, aWer-‐sales services, News Agencies

•  Professional services: Ø Legal services, Ø Accountants, Ø Architects, Ø Engineers, etc.

•  Construc:on services •  Distribu:on services •  Postal & Express Delivery •  Audio-‐visual services

•  Energy related services

•  Environmental services

•  Telecommunica:on services •  Tourism

•  Air Transport

•  Mari:me Transport

For more informa:on, see www.esf.be

ESF Membership covers a large range of services sectors and Horizontal federa:ons:

•  BUSINESSEUROPE •  Confedera:on of Danish Industries (DI) •  Confedera:on of Finnish Industries (EK) •  Confedera:on of Swedish Enterprises (SN) •  Irish Business and Employers Confedera:on (IBEC

•  Confedera:on of French Enterprises (MEDEF)

&

98% of EU Services companies, only approximately 20% export


Some ESF COMPANY MEMBERS :

For more information, see www.esf.be


Some of the ESF Associations’ Members


2) Interna:onal trade & investment in services :

Facts and Figures


Size of global trade – Export of goods and services

18 401

4 425 (including intra EU) Bio US$ -‐ 2012

World Exports of Goods

World Export of Services (80,6%)

Source: WTO ITS 2013 Total: 22 826 Bio US$

(19,4%)


World Economy: Percentage of GDP by Sector -‐ 2014

1.8

25

73.1

1.2

22.1

76.7

9.7

46.6 43.7

7

37.6

55.5

5.4

27.4

67.2

17 18

65

4

27.3

68.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

agriculture Industry Services

EU

USA

China

Colombia

Brazil

India

Australia

Source: CIA Fact Book – 2015


18927

12293

144401

112642

13251

27305 83

764

61117

99305

223087

7932

7008

7922

9102

128237

102135

5063

14613

41462

104206

40427

191743

10614

4757

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

EU Services Exports and Imports per sectors (2015 - € Billion)

Source: Eurostat 2016 – Note: Other business services comprise mainly: research and development, professional and management consulAng services, technical, trade-‐related services.

Exports -‐ Total 811 231 – Imports -‐ Total: 660 483 27.5% of Exports

1% 0.8%

17.8 %

13.9 %

10.3% 7.5%

12.2%

3.4% 1.7% 1.5% 2.3%


THE EU IS BY FAR THE WORLD BIGGEST EXPORTER OF TRADE IN SERVICES

2165

985

688

232 158 156 140 113 106 106 85 65 57 55 53 53 50 49 39 39 35 25 23 21 0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500 EU

27

Extra EU

27

US

China

Japan

India

Singapore

Switzerland

Ho

ng-‐Kon

g South

Canada

Russia

Taiwan

Thailand

Au

stralia

Macao

Turkey

Norway

Malaysia

Brasil

Israel

Philipp

ines

Indo

nesia

Mexico

2014

Source: WTO ITS 2015 – Figures for 2014

If we take intra and extra EU together, EU export of services represent 43,2 % of global

export of services

EU is by very far the biggest exporter of services: 25,2 % of

world export of services

Services Exports in Billion $US -‐ 2014

Australia : 14th – 1%


EU-‐Australia Trade & Investment (Imports and exports of goods & services & FDI)

10.2 9.2 9.6

32.1 29.6 31.7

21.9 20.4 22.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2013 2014 2015

Trade in Goods (€ Bio)

EU Imports EU Exports Balance

8.6 8.2 7.8

18.8 19.1 18.6

10.2 10.9 10.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014

Trade in Services (€ Bio)

EU Imports EU Exports Balance

26.4 115.3

88.9

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

2014

Foreign Direct Investment (€ Bio)

Balance Outward Stocks Inward Stocks


IMPORTANCE OF TRADE IN SERVICES If we use the trade in value-‐added (TiVA) indicators,

60,5% of total EU Exports are Services

2262

985

Extra EU Exports in BoP – 2014 -‐ $Bio

Goods

Services

39.5 60.5

EU Exports in TiVA – 2011 -‐ %

Goods

Services

53.9 46.1

Australia Exports in TiVA – 2011 -‐ %

Goods

Services 241

53

Australia Exports in BoP – 2014 -‐ $Bio

Goods

Services

18%

46,1% of total Australia Exports are Services

82%

30.3%

69.6%

Source: World Trade Organizabon, "Global Value Chains" 2011


19.9

19.2

Domesbc Services Foreign Services

49.1%

EU27 = 39.1%

50.9%

Share of Services value added in EU & Australia Goods Exports Share of Domesbc & Foreign Services in Goods Exports -‐ %

27.4

8.9


24.5%

Australia = 36.3%

75.5%



42.5

18


29.7%

EU = 60.5%

70.3%

Share of Services in EU & Australia Global Exports Share of Domesbc & Foreign Services -‐ %

40.4

5.7


35.4%

Australia = 46.1%

64.6%



40.4

34.8

28.9 27.7

22.8

45.3

76.4

39

47.8 48.9

44.4

25.3 23.9 25.1

49.5

29.6

39.6 41.8

50.9

30.3

26.2

34.5

43.1

49.9

23.2

42.5 5.7 10

7.6

14.2

3.4

10.8

12.8

19.2 9.7 12

5.4

14.9 17.8 12.7

7.9

9.7

8.9

24.7

11.6

16.6 16.8

16 10.7

5.9

14.9

18

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100 Services % VA Content of Exports: by Origin

Foreign Services

Domesbc Services

36.5

26.2

56.1

58.2

57.5 60.9

49.8

40.2 41.7

37.8

57.5

39.3

48.5

66.5

62.5

50.5

53.8 55.8

38.1

60.5

46.1 44.1 41.9

89.2

46.9

43


56.1 60.5

39.3

50.5

The EU is an open market! Only Singapore & Iceland has a higher penetra`on of foreign services

Australia is not that open to

foreigners!


3) EU Trade Policy for Services and Investment


« The voice of the European Service Industries for Internabonal Trade Negobabons in Services »

MULTILATERAL versus NEW EU BILATERAL TRADE POLICY

WTO UR

(1995 1997)

DDA Offers (July 2008)

WTO Access. since 2001

US FTA+

New EU FTAs

• China • Taiwan • Saudi-‐Arabia • Vietnam • Ukraine • Cambodia • Russia • Kazakhstan

• CariForum (15) P • Korea P • Columbia P • Peru P • Ecuador P • Central America (6) P • Mercosur (4)(?)

Mulblateral Bilateral

• Canada P • Singapore P • India ! • Malaysia ! • Vietnam P • Japan • USA ! • Thailand ! • Philippines • Australia & NZ • Indonesia

• Market Acc + • Public Proc.+ • IPR + • BIT + • SOE + • Reg. Coop. +

• US Parity • Market Acc + • Public Proc + • Mode 4 +

DDA+

Old EU FTA

• Mexico (Rev) • Chile (Rev) • Euromed

Only 30 Countries, not 164 WTO

Members!

Market access level

EU-China + TW + HK BIA EPA

Approximabon (EU

law)

DC FTAs

• Ukraine P Georgia P, Moldova P, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, Turkey

TISA

Plurilateral

23


EU Trade Policy: è Concluded Agreements : 1.  EU-‐Mexico (2000) (few and low services Commitments)(Rev. Start 2016)

2.  EU-‐Chile (2002) (modest services commitments) (Rev. Start 2017) 3.  EU-‐Cariforum (15 countries) (2008) 4.  EU-‐South Korea (ra:fied en 2011) (current Benchmark) 5.  EU-‐Colombia (ra:fied en 2012) 6.  EU-‐Peru (ra:fied en 2012) (EU-‐Ecuador signed 2015) 7.  EU-‐Central America (6 countries) (ra:fied en 2012) 8.  EU with Eastern Partnership: Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova (Nov 2013)

(Approxima:on – EU Acquis) (Armenia: suspended) 9.  EU-‐Singapore (Poli5cal deal: December 2012, Ini5alled; September 2013 –

wait for ECJ Opinion! – 03/2017 + Ra5fica5on in EP?)* 10.  EU-‐Canada CETA (Poli5cal deal on trade: Oct. 2013, on Investment with

ICS: Sep. 2014 + April 2016) (Signed on 30/10/2016 -‐Ra5fica5on:02/2017 – Provisional applica5on: 1/07/2017);*

11.  EU-‐Vietnam (Poli5cal deal: August 2015*)

* To be signed by the Council and ratified by the European Parliament.


è  On-‐Going FTA nego:a:ons: New EU Trade Strategy published on Oct 2015 1.  EU-‐Malaysia FTA (started in 2010 – 7 rounds, stalled since 09/2012, elec5ons in 06/2013,

8th round not scheduled yet) 2.  EU-‐Thailand (started 03/2013, 1 round: 05/2013, 2nd round: 09/2013, 3rd round :

12/2013 – Stalled a_er Military Coup in May 2014) 3.  EU-‐India (TIA)(started in2006 -‐ elec5ons in 2014 – stalled in 2013)(2016?) 4.  EU-‐MERCOSUR FTA (Argen5na, Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay) (blocked) (New exchange of

offers in May 2016) 5.  EU-‐Indonesia CEPA: Vision Group 2011; Launch: July 16 – 1st Round: Sept 2016 6.  EU EPAs with ACP countries (5 African regions, incl. 6 SADC countries signed in June

2016, but nearly nothing on services)

7.  EU with EuroMed : Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia. 8.  EU-‐Philippines FTA: 1st Round (23 May 2016); 2nd Round (Dec 2016) 9.  Revision of EU-‐Mexico: 1st Round: week 13 June 2016!

10.  Australia & New Zealand DCFTA; Revision of EU-‐Turkey Custom Union: Consult. Deadline Beg. June 2016

11.  Revision EU-‐Chile (Consulta:on launched – Deadline 31/08/2016). 12.  Taiwan BIA? Hong-‐Kong BIA


è On-‐Going nego:a:ons (2): BIG FTAs! •  EU-‐US TTIP (mandate: June 2016 – 13 rounds;

Stocktaking in DC: 17 Feb. 8th round: February 2015 in Brussels – 9th Round: New-‐York, April 2015 – 10th Round: Brussels, July 2015 – 11th Round: Miami, October 2015 – 12th Round: Brussels, Feb. 2016, 13th Round: New-‐York, April 2016; 14th Round: Brussels, 11-‐15 July 2016 -‐ 15th Round: New-‐York, Oct. 2016 – Suspended on 18 October 2016!

•  EU-‐Japan (Started March 2013 – 13 rounds ; One-‐Year Review: May 2014 – Last Rounds : 16th : April 2016 in Tokyo. Next Round: 17th: 26-‐30 September 2016 – Deal: Dec. 2016/Spring 2017?

•  EU-‐China Bilateral Investment Agreement: (mandate: Nov 2013; 1st Round: 01/2014 – 2nd Round: 03/ 2014, 5th Round : Beijing,17-‐19 March 2015). 11th round: in Qingdao -‐ week of 27 June 2016

•  TiSA (Plurilateral Trade in Services Agreement) (see below) Deal: 2016? •  Environmental Goods Agreement (EGA + Services) Deal: 2016?


- TRADE IN SERVICES AGREEMENT – TiSA - Time line of the talks = •  Started on 18-‐19 March 2013,

•  Past Rounds of nego:a:ons: 2nd Round: Week 29 April, 3rd : Week 24

June; 4th : Week 16 September; 5th : Week 24-‐28 November 2013; 6th : 17-‐24 February 2014; 7th : Week 28/04-‐2/05; 8th : Week 23-‐24 June; 9th : September 2014; 10th : December 2014; 11th: Round: February 2015; 12th: April 2015; 13th: July 2015; 14th: October 2015; 15th:Nov/Dec 2015; 16th: Feb. 2016; 17th: April 2016; 18th : May/June 2016, 19th: 8 -‐ 18 July 2016; 20th: week 19 – 26 Sept 2016; 21st : 2 -‐ 10 November 2016

•  TiSA Ministerial Mee:ng (Senior officials): 4 June 2015 (OECD – Paris) – TiSA Mini Ministerial Dinner: 21 October 2016 (Oslo– Paris)

•  Second revised offer 21 October 2016. •  TiSA Ministerial scheduled on 5-‐6 Dec. 2016… towards conclusion!

•  Trump Elec:ons on 8 November 2016! TiSA Ministerial and last round: cancelled on 18 Nov! Deal? 2017?


ESF TISA COUNTRIES’ PRIORITIES è 23 “like minded” Countries: •  TiSA countries that are integrated into the EU Single Market: Iceland,

Liechtenstein, Norway,... and par:ally Switzerland •  The EU has recent FTA with the following TiSA countries: Colombia, Costa-‐

Rica, Peru, Panama, South Korea •  The EU has concluded FTA but not yet ra:fied FTA with Canada

•  The EU has on going FTA nego:a:ons with: Japan, USA •  The EU does not have any FTA with the following TiSA Countries: 1.

Australia, 2.Hong-‐Kong, 3. Israel, 4. Taiwan, 5. New-‐Zealand, 6. Pakistan, 7. Paraguay, 8. Uruguay, 9. Turkey

•  The EU has FTA with low level of services commitments with Chile and Mexico, and EPA with Mauri:us (but no services)

è Where are the emerging countries? China, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Russia, South Africa?


TiSA in figures (with & without EU intra & extra)

1190

3750

Total World (Incl. Intra-‐EU) -‐ $Bio

Rest of the World

TiSA Total (Incl. EU)

3355

1585

Total World (Incl. Intra-‐EU) -‐ $Bio

Rest of the World

TiSA Total (Excl. EU)

TiSA with EU TiSA without EU

Source: WTO InternaAonal Trade StaAsAcs -‐ 2015

75.9% 24.1% 32.1% 67.9%


TiSA in figures (with & without USA)

1190

3750

Total World -‐ $Bio

Rest of the World

TiSA Total (Incl. USA)

1878

3062

Total World -‐$Bio

Rest of the World

TiSA Total (Excl. USA)

TiSA with USA TiSA without USA

Source: WTO InternaAonal Trade StaAsAcs -‐ 2015

75.9% 24.1% 62% 38%


4) Impact of Brexit on EU Trade Policy for

Services and Investment


337

1828

Total EU (Incl. Intra EU) = 2165 $Bio

UK Rest of EU

15.6%

84.4%

337

1828 2775

Total World (Incl. Intra EU) = 4940 $Bio ($Bio)

Total UK Total EU (excl. UK) Rest of the world

6.8%

37%

57.2%

Share of the UK in World trade in services in the EU and in the World


337

267 266

187

134 133 122 116

98 77 72 66

48 41 30 26 26 24

95

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400 EU Exports of services per countries (Incl. Intra EU) -‐ $Bio -‐ 2014

Total EU Export (Incl. Intra & Extra EU) = 2165 $Bio


1756

506

Exports of Goods EU28= 2262 $Bio

EU27 UK

648 337

Exports of Services EU28=985 $Bio

EU27 UK

2404

843

Total Exports (Goods & Services) EU28= 3247 $Bio

EU27 UK

22.3%

77.7%

34.2%

65.3%

26%

74%

THE UK REPRESENTS A VERY LARGE PART OF THE EXTRA EU TRADE

WTO Interna:onal Trade Sta:s:cs -‐ 2015


19.9

19.2


49.1%

EU27 = 39.1%

50.9%

Share of Services value added in EU & UK Goods Exports Share of Domesbc & Foreign Services in Goods Exports -‐ %

13.3

17.8


48%

UK = 37.1%

52%


IMPORTANCE OF TRADE IN SERVICES for EU & UK If we use the trade in value-‐added (TiVA) indicators,

60,5% of total EU VA Exports are Services

73.1

26.9

EU Exports in BoP – 2014 -‐ %

Goods

Services

39.5 60.5

EU Exports in TiVA – 2011 -‐ %

Goods

Services

36.5

63.5

UK Exports in TiVA – 2011 -‐ %

Goods

Services

60 40

UK Exports in BoP -‐ 2014 -‐ %

Goods

Services

63,5% of total UK VA Exports are Services


42.5

18


29.7%

EU = 60.5%

70.3%

Share of Services in EU & Taiwan Global Exports Share of Domesbc & Foreign Services -‐ %

52.1

11.4


18%

UK = 63.5%

82%



43.9 47.1

17.6

58.1

71.1

27.1

44.6 41.1 37.1

50.9

38.2

53.7

27.6 34.1

43.1 46.2 48.9

37.1

51.5 54.9

37.2 43.2

30 27.1 35.8

46.7 43.9 52.1

42.5

13

18.7

31.6

9.3

13.3

21.1

20.7

19.4

17.6

11.6

12.8

11.2

23.8

33.4

12

15 11.8

49

26.8

13.1

15.3

14.5

11.4

19.9

17.6

12.6 15.4 11.4

18

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100 Services % VA Content of Exports by Origin Foreign Services

Domesbc Services

63.5 60.5


TRADE ASYMMETRY (Incl. Extra and Intra EU Trade)


5) EU-‐Australia FTA : What should be its content for

Trade and investment in services?


What should be the content of an EU Australia FTA?

A.  Market access Pillar (incl. Public procurement in services)

B.  Regulatory disciplines and coopera:on

C.  Movement of natural persons

D.  4) Mutual recogni:on of qualifica:on


What should be the content of an EU Australia FTA? è “Deep and Comprehensive FTA” – Single Undertaking

– Goods: tariffs cuts (+95%), NTBs, Rules of Origin, –  Trade in services (Cross border – M1, Movement of people – M4)

–  Investment (Pre-‐establishment market access including in services sectors – M3, post establishment protec:on: ISDS?)

–  IPR (copyrights, patents, data flows, etc.) –  Public Procurement, including for services (central, regions, local, public en::es): Australia Sub federal level?

–  Compe::on, dispute sezlement

–  Regulatory disciplines and coopera:on è TiSA + ? ; TPP +?; TTIP ambi:on?


A. MARKET ACCESS PILLAR (1) Ø The current bidding level with Australia = GATS 1995 Ø Scheduling of Market access & Na:onal Treatment

commitments using a Nega:ve list : EU industry preferred choice!

v GATS +; è TiSA+; è TPP+ v Removal of all equity caps, with nego:ated excep:ons,

v Binding of current prac:se (i.e. Higher Market access than in exis:ng FTAs), with nego:ated excep:ons,

v Stands:ll and Ratchet Clause (to lock in the autonomous

reforms) v More on Professional services, telecom services, postal &

express services, financial services, mari:me Transport, etc.


A. MARKET ACCESS PILLAR (2) Ø State of the art Investment protec:on chapter (BIT): including Investor-‐to-‐State Dispute Sezlement (ISDS) with transparency

process and the new EU Investment Court System (ICS).. Australia?

Ø Increased public procurement market access in the services sectors: (Construc:on & related services (architects,

engineers, etc.); cleaning and catering services in administra:ons and all public en::es; insurance services; telecom and IT services; security services; environmental

services, etc. è Australia not GPA member !

è Australia sub federal level? Difficul:es ??


B. REGULATORY DISCIPLINES AND COOPERATION PILLAR Ø Adop:on of a strong Horizontal Chapter on Disciplines for Domes:c

Regula:on (Look at TiSA):

v Transparency of the regula:on v Prior consulta:on of stakeholders v Impact assessment

v transparency of the licensing requirements and procedures (Propor:onate to the goal, Objec:ve, lease burdensome

administra:ve costs as possible, short and predefined delays,

right of appeal) Ø Sector specific disciplines (e.g. on Telecoms, on Postal, on Energy,

Environment, mari:me and air transport, financial services, etc.) and

Sector specific regulatory coopera:on (living agreement)(TiSA?) Ø Disciplines on State Own Enterprises (SOEs) Ø Disciplines on cross border data flow (?) (very sensi:ve in the EU!)


C.  MOVEMENT OF NATURAL PERSONS

•  A key priority for EU businesses in EU-‐Australia FTA •  Temporary period only, not permanent migra:on

•  Nego:ate faster Business Visa and Work permits delivery procedures: Visa facilita:on (Sensi:ve in EU – Competence?)

•  In all Categories of Natural Persons Covered under Mode 4: 1.  Intra-‐Corporate Transfers (ICT)

–  Managers –  Specialists –  Graduate Trainees

2.  Business Visitors (BV) = kind of APEC Card with EU ? 3.  Contract Service Suppliers (CSS)

Employees of Juridical Persons 4.  Independent Professionals (IP)


D. MRAS ON PROFESSIONAL QUALIFICATION (1)

How to achieve Mutual Recogni:on Agreements in Professional qualifica:ons in a EU-‐Australia FTA)? è see EU-‐Canada CETA !

•  The EU Treaty gives full competence to the EU ins:tu:ons on all external aspects of the internal market, i.e. including also on Professional qualifica:ons.

•  How to reconcile the competent authori:es in the professional services (DG Markt, + Member States ministries, + Professional bodies, and the trade authori:es (DG Trade, Trade Policy Commizee – Member States trade representa:ves, EP)?

•  For many years in the EU, the private sector was told to work on the details via a “profession to profession agreement”, that would then be examined by the ins:tu:ons, so as to provide the “official stamp”, transforming it into binding interna:onal law (see architects)


MRAS ON PROFESSIONAL QUALIFICATION (2) •  The Commission and Canada Federal government have found a way to

go forward:

•  They agreed on a Framework Agreement that will be an annex to the CETA. It describes the modali:es how MRAs on sector specific professional qualifica:ons, once concluded by the private sector together with the “licencing bodies”, will finally be transformed into the binding Interna:onal treaty (FTA).

•  All the competent authori:es in the Member States and the Provinces have been involved in this solu:on.

è i.e. The Australian States regulatory bodies will have to be involved. Is it possible?

•  The framework agreement is an “enabling tool” (with Guidelines for the sectors) that ensure legal security to the agreement, if – and only if – the professional services sectors want to conclude a MRA.

•  The Architects have already started to work on a MRA.


E. CHAPTER ON SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

•  A chapter on other related issues to investment! •  Rules on Labour (respect of ILO Core Conven:ons è Core labour standards like no child at work, no prisoners, etc.)

•  Rules on Environment (Respect of mul:lateral environment agreements, COP 21, etc.)

•  Possible rules on obliga:ons for the companies to respect the basic corporate social responsibili:es (CSR), OECD Guidelines for mul:na:onals, etc.

è Ques:on: should such a chapter be subject to the dispute sezlement system of the BIA?


Pascal KERNEIS

Managing Director

European Services Forum – ESF

168, Avenue de Cortenbergh

B – 1000 – BRUSSELS

Tel: + 32 2 230 75 14

Fax: + 32 2 320 61 68

Email: [email protected]

Website: www.esf.be

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION !

Documents

« The voice of the European Service Industries for ......« The voice of the European Service Industries for International Trade Negotiations in Services » Pascal&Kerneis&–Managing&Director&