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Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

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Page 1: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

Working in partnership with The PFS

Investment principles and risk –

“Building Successful Portfolios"

Autumn 2011

Page 2: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

2

Agenda

The difficulties / making changes

What is the advisers role / limitations

New breed – Absolute Return Funds

Lots of choice – so where is your process

A process / solutions

Merlin Market view to conclude

Page 3: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

Suitability

Page 4: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

What are you selling?

Influence over the variables that you & your clients control

Maximise use of tax breaks etc

Knowledge of product suitability

Experience across a range of markets

Constantly evaluating clients’ financial goals

Time

4

“A goal without a plan is just a wish” Antoine de Saint-Exupery

Financial planning is distinct from investment management

Page 5: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

Key considerations when investing clients’ money

Attitudes to risk

Asset allocation

Market volatility

Diversification

Funds’ style biases

Performance records

Regulatory issues

5

Page 6: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

The suitability cycle

6

Demonstrate and

Document

2. Assess suitability – Investment

3. Review suitability – Client

4. Review suitability –Investment

1. Assess suitability – Client

Page 7: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

FSA Paper – January 2011

Assessing suitability of Investments

“The high number of unsuitable investment selections we see in pension and investment markets is still a significant concern”

50%

Of files assessed by FSA during an 18 month period ending Sept 2010 were unsuitable on grounds of risk

Capacity for loss was not considered enough

77

Page 8: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

8

Understanding ‘reverse percentages’

Concept:

The investment return required to recover from an investment loss increases exponentially with the scale of the loss.

Definitions:

rloss = the loss rate from a specified starting point

(this is a -ve percentage)

rrecov = the growth rate required to recover to a previous starting point

rrecov / rloss = the growth factor

This can be represented by the following equation:

rloss rrecov Growth factor

-5% 5.3% 1.05

-10% 11.1% 1.11

-15% 17.6% 1.18

-20% 25.0% 1.25

-25% 33.3% 1.33

-30% 42.9% 1.43

-35% 53.8% 1.54

-40% 66.7% 1.67

-45% 81.8% 1.82

-50% 100.0% 2.00

-55% 122.2% 2.22

-60% 150.0% 2.50

-65% 185.7% 2.86

-70% 233.3% 3.33

-75% 300.0% 4.00

-80% 400.0% 5.00

-85% 566.7% 6.67

-90% 900.0% 10.00

-95% 1900.0% 20.00

rrecov =1

(1+rloss)– 1

Page 9: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

Downside risk

9

Source: FE.

Page 10: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

10

Relying solely on volatility as a proxy for risk

Investment A

Month 1 2.0%

Month 2 4.0%

Month 3 9.2%

Volatility (SD) 3.8

Return 15.7%

Investment B

5.0%

5.0%

5.0%

0

15.7%

Investment C

-5.0%

-5.0%

-5.0%

0%

–14.3%

Source: This slide is for illustrative purposes only. The figures do not represent actual investments.

Page 11: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

11

Ratios

Source: FE, bid to bid, net income reinvested , annualised from 31.10.08 to 31.10.11.

Page 12: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

AA tools

It is not our area of expertise to comment on ATR tools but where they lead to prescribed investment decisions by risk we have a view

Whilst theoretical risk parameters are kept with a boxing method of risk by numbers, investors don't have full flexibility to adjust to markets and this can lead to selling an asset that is appreciating to buy one which is depreciating to keep within the risk box

Many new multi manager risk solutions are placed within the unclassified sector making relative comparisons on risk return to peers difficult

12

Page 13: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

AA Tools

Stochastic modelling looks backwards and trys to project forwards – The world we live in now is not the same

MPT – Modern portfolio theory works on the academic belief that holding all the major assets all of the time you increase the risk / return of a portfolio – not so , a la property in recent times

Many asset allocation tools fail at fund levels by boxing active managers by tracking errors – the result you would ignore lots of talent for core monies like Neil Woodford of IP

Use a panel but, also use your discrection

13

Page 14: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

1414

Source: IMF, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research estimates 08.09.10.

Assess suitability – Investment

Global Emerging Markets may represent 55% of Global market cap by 2030

Page 15: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

IMA Report to April 2011 – Sectors (NET sales)

15

Source: IMA Report to April 2011

Page 16: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

16

Issues for the IFA

Page 17: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

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Best vs. worst UK Unit Trust/OEIC in 2007

Source: Financial Express, bid to bid, net income reinvested in GBP 31.12.06 to 31.12.07.

Page 18: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

18

Best vs. worst UK Unit Trust/OEIC in 2008

Source: Financial Express, bid to bid, net income reinvested in GBP 31.12.07 to 31.12.08.

Page 19: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

19

Best vs. worst UK Unit Trust/OEIC in 2009

Source: Financial Express, bid to bid, net income reinvested in GBP 31.12.08 to 31.12.09.

Page 20: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

Best vs. worst UK Unit Trust/OEIC in 2010

20

Source: Financial Express, bid to bid, net income reinvested in GBP 31.12.09 to 31.12.10.

Page 21: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

Over the last year…

21

Source: Financial Express,, bid to bid, net income reinvested from 31.08.09 to 31.08.11.

1st Quartile

to

3rd Quartile or

4th Quartilemoved from

performance over the previous 12 months

Page 22: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

Cost of missing best ten days

https://www.fidelity.co.in/market_volatility/timing.html

22

Source: Fidelity FundsNetwork. The chart shows how a notional Rs. One lakh investment would have been affected if the ten best days were missed, using daily returns of the BSE Sensex (source: Bloomberg) for the calculations fro m 31.07.01 to 31.07.11. Indices are not a representation of a financial product. The do not take account of costs or tax and do not reflect performance of any individual portfolio of stocks.Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

Page 23: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

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Active vs. passive investing

Potential for out-performance

Can react to market conditions

Access to smaller companies

Active Passive

Higher charges

Can underperform the market

Lower charges

Less trading (often computer driven)

No potential for out-performance

Tracking error / rebalancing

Must stay fully invested

Only feasible for larger markets

Page 24: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

24

FTSE 100 performance 2010: +12.7%

Best performers 2010

Source: FactSet, Bloomberg 31.12.09 to 31.12.10. Average weights are FTSE 100 average weights over 12 months to 31.12.10. on a buy and hold basis.

Average Weight % Total Return %

Fresnillo 0.16 +114.3

Burberry Group 0.25 +92.9

Petrofac 0.23 +68.1

Antofagasta 0.30 +65.3

Wolseley 0.31 +64.1

Page 25: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

25

FTSE 100 performance 2010: +12.7%

Worst performers 2010

Avoiding one or two stocks would lead to outperformance …but index managers can’t avoid this risk

Average Weight % Total Return %

Resolution 0.10 -28.0

BP 6.53 -21.2

Capita Group 0.33 -5.2

HSBC Holdings 8.25 -5.0

Marks & Spencer Group 0.41 -4.0

Source: FactSet, Bloomberg 31.12.09 to 31.12.10. Average weights are FTSE 100 average weights over 12 months to 31.12.10. on a buy and hold basis.

Page 26: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

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Stockmarket performance

31.12.99 to 31.08.11

Source: Bloomberg as at 31.08.11. Figures based on GBP currency. *No dividends or coupons.

% Change % Total Return

FTSE 100 -22.16 +20.27

S&P 500 -17.63 +2.01

Nikkei 225 -37.15 -28.23

DAX +18.37 +18.37*

CAC 40 -22.18 +9.04

Page 27: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

Discrete performance – Jupiter Merlin Income

27

Calendar year performance

Source: Financial Express, bid to bid, net income reinvested to 31.08.11.

YTD 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000

Jupiter Merlin Income Portfolio -2.8 12.5 17.4 -10.8 2.8 11.0 17.0 11.8 15.2 -5.2 -2.2 5.9

IMA Cautious Managed average -3.0 8.6 15.9 -15.8 1.4 7.0 12.6 9.4 14.4 -11.8 -4.9 1.1

Relative performance +0.2 +3.9 +1.5 +5.0 +1.4 +4.1 +4.5 +2.4 +0.8 +6.6 +2.6 +4.8

Quartile rank 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 1

Page 28: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

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Analyzing funds

Fund manager tenure

Risk vs. return (including discrete returns)

Maximum loss

ABI vs. IMA

Stock and sector over/underweight (just as important)

Number of holdings

Commonality / overlap on funds held

Page 29: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

FundsLibrary

29

Page 30: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

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Hiding the truth?

Watch out for the . Who’s performance record is it really?

There are no hard and fast rules as fund managers move around and new funds are launched

*

Fund management is an art not a science; it is a peoples business

John Chatfield Roberts, Director, Jupiter

Page 31: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

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Brick in the snake – Discrete as well as cumulative

Jupiter European Fund performance over 5 years

Source: Financial Express, bid to bid, net income reinvested to 31.08.11.

-0.3

22.1 18.8 16.4

-4.0-5.8 -6.8

17.6

-0.2 -1.5

9.43.4 4.7

-5.2-3.4

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

2030

40

50

60

70

80

90

2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011

% G

row

th

Jupiter - European Inc TR in GB FTSE World Europe EX UK Index TR in GB

IMA Europe Excluding UK TR in GB Jupiter - European Inc TR in GB

Page 32: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

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Risk metrics

To be used in conjunction with performance analysis to determine the risk / reward trade of

Beta

Alpha

Standard deviation and tracking errors

Correlation

Maximum drawdown and many more, all can be found on websites provided or direct from your manager

Page 33: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

33

Jupiter North American Income Fund – Risk & Return

Risk/return over 5 years

Source: Financial Express, bid to bid, net income reinvested 31.08.06 to 31.08.11.

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

% C

ha

ng

e

Annualised Volatility

S&P 500

Page 34: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

34

Criteria for ratings – 1 of 2

Agency Description Criteria

Standard & Poor’s

Fund Management

Ratings

Takes into account investment process and managers’ consistency of

performance

Less than 20% of funds receive a

rating

Morningstar Overall Morningstar Ratings™ grades fund based on their risk-adjusted

returns within Morningstar Categories over separate performance

period depending on how long the fund has been running. The separate

periods are 36 months, 60 months and 120 months.

5 star: top 10%

4 star: next 22.5%

3 star: middle 35%

2 star: next 22.5%

1 star: bottom 10%

Forsyth-OBSR Examines fund’s investment style, process, performance and risk Funds must be ‘highly

commendable’ or better

Page 35: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

35

Criteria for ratings – 2 of 2

Agency Description Criteria

Citywire Fund

Manager Ratings

Focusses on manager’s ability, regardless of fund managed, calculating

the level outperformance against the benchmark

‘Only a handful of managers

receive

a rating’

Lipper Leaders Funds that are awarded Lipper Leader status have excelled when

compared to similar funds. Lipper’s scoring system is built on three

years of historical performance and is based on two main elements:

‘preservation’, the ability of the fund to preserve capital, even during any

market downturn and ‘consistent return’, the ability of a fund to provide

consistently superior returns when compared to similar funds.

Both measures are scored on a 1

to 5 basis (with 1 being the

highest). Funds that score 1 for

either measure are awarded

‘Lipper Leader’ recognition.

Trustnet Alpha

Manager Ratings

The calculation is achieved by constructing an artificial portfolio, as if the

manager’s funds had been bought and sold during the period he/she

managed them. The weighting between funds is equal, but is halved if

the fund is co-managed and the manager is also a sole manager on

another fund. Any periods where there is no record of fund manager

performance, perhaps due to gardening leave, is treated as a flat

period.

The rating is based on three

components: Risk-adjusted alpha (with track

record length bias) Consistent outperformance of

a benchmark overall Out/underperformance

consistency in up and

down markets

Page 36: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

36

ABI vs. IMA

Fund sits within IMA UK equity and bond sector

Fund invests 80% in UK equity, 20% UK fixed interest

Jupiter High Income Fund

Page 37: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

37

ABI vs. IMA

For Life and Pensions money, use ABI classification

ABI do not have a UK equity and bond sector

Fund is therefore placed in most appropriate sector – UK equity is included in this case

Problems?

Jupiter High Income Fund

Page 38: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

38

Specialism – is it your role to pick them?

Is it your job or that of a MultiManager?

If it’s the IFA, you must keep an eye on these funds more regularly

Possibly quarterly reviews, rather than annual

Monitor these funds with more detailed analysis

Page 39: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

39

Specialist sector – Apples and Pears

Top 5 performing funds over 5 years

Source: Financial Express, bid to bid, net income reinvested to 31.08.11.

Fund %

  Smith & Williamson - Global Gold & Resources 140.7

  BlackRock - Gold & General 134.9

Investec - Global Gold 128.5

Franklin Templeton - Franklin India 116.3

Fidelity - Latin America 113.2

Gold and Mining Resources Fund

Gold and Mining Resources Fund

Gold and Mining Resources Fund

Indian Equities

Latin American Equities

Page 40: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

40

Finding funds

How many funds should you look at?

How much time do ‘you’ have?

Consider your limits – holistic advice

BUT with over 2000 UK funds alone to choose from, you need filters and a system

Page 41: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

41

Directory

www.barcap.com/egs Equity-Gilt Study

www.obsr.co.uk Ratings and fund information

www.ipdindex.co.uk Property

www.reita.org REITS information

www.trustnet.com Performance & multi-manager guide

www.citywire.co.uk Fund manager news, views, ratings

www.apcims.co.uk Asset allocation model

www.morningstar.co.uk Performance & risk data

www.fundslibrary.co.uk Factsheets & reports

www.jupiteronline.co.uk Jupiter fund information

Page 42: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

The new breed – Absolute return investing

The differing funds on offer

Page 43: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

So why now?

Just look at the last decade for investors

Two significant bear / negative returning markets for equities

Cash is not king, and other asset class volatility has increased

Index returns negative for equity investors

Correlation stronger between asset classes

43

Page 44: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

10 years of returns

44

Source: Financial Express, bid to bid, net income reinvested to 31.08.11.

Page 45: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

Absolute returns in mind

There has been a recent flurry of funds launched in the UK, so much so that a new IMA sector has been created

We endorse the usage of these funds but…

As part of an overall portfolio or complete solution?

But NB: They can and have lost money

They may find it difficult to fully participate in any rally

45

Page 46: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

IMA definition

46

Absolute Return  

Funds managed with the aim of delivering absolute (i.e. more than zero) returnsin any market conditions. Typically funds in this sector would normally expect to deliver absolute (more than zero) returns on a 12 months basis.

Page 47: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

Absolute Return sector (incorporated April 2008)

47

IMA Absolute Return sector

Source: Financial Express..

Year Funds launched

1993 1

1997 1

1998 1

2003 1

2004 1

2005 4

2006 4

2007 5

2008 8

2009 21

2010 16

2011 6

Total 69

Offshore Recognised Absolute Return

Year Funds launched

1989 1

1996 1

1997 2

1998 1

1999 4

2000 2

2001 1

2003 2

2004 2

2005 6

2006 18

2007 11

2008 3

2009 10

2010 15

2011 5

Total 84

Page 48: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

IMA Absolute Return sector members’ performance 2010

48

Source: Financial Express, bid to bid, net income reinvested 31.12.09 to 31.12.10.

IMA Absolute Return sector Offshore Recognised Absolute Return

Page 49: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

Fund S&P OBSRFE

crowns

Newton Real Return AAA A 2

Stan Life Global Absolute Return Strategies

AA A 3

Insight Absolute Return AA A 3

BlackRock UK Absolute Alpha

AA A 1

Threadneedle Absolute Return Bond

A A 2

Funds rated by S&P, OBSR and Financial Express

49

IMA Absolute Return sector Offshore Recognised Absolute Return

Fund S&PFE

crowns

Insight Absolute UK Equity Market Neutral

AA 3

Nordea European Value AA 2

Polar Capital UK Absolute Return AA 1

BNY Mellon Evolution Global Alpha

A 1

Ennismore European Small Companies

A 3

GLG UK Select Equity A 1

Schroder Emerging Markets Debt Absolute Return

A 2

Source: Trustnet 31.08.11.

Page 50: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

What are the opportunities?

Long term all weather opportunities for investment

Lower volatility, lower standard deviation

The greater potential for protection of capital

A multitude of different instruments and techniquesto maintain flexibility

50

Page 51: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

Types of Absolute Return

51

Page 52: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

Examples of funds and differences

Insight Market Neutral – Cash Plus Return

Standard Life GARS – Targeted return

Jupiter AR – Absolute Return

52

Page 53: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

Failure of managed funds

53

Performance over ten years

Source: Financial Express, bid to bid, net income reinvested to 31.08.11.

Page 54: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

The nascent sectors credentials

54

Performance since July 2005

Source: Financial Express, bid to bid, net income reinvested to 31.08.11.

Page 55: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

Methods employed

Page 56: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

Legislation helps

UCITS III and soon IV

Hedge fund techniques can be used in UK Funds under regulation

Thus the emergence of absolute return funds

56

Page 57: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

57

UCITS new powers

Absolute Return funds have the ability to invest in a wider rangeof instruments to a much greater degree compared to traditional long only funds

Making use of greater degrees of cash weighting

Using derivatives not only to maximise returns but also to protect portfolios, as opposed to simply EPM used in traditional funds

Swaps, CFD’s, pair trades, index derivatives and much more can be used synthetically

UCITS III

Page 58: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

Golden ticket?

You can trade on Comex – But there will be dealing costs, storage, insurance etc..

…So we trade on ETC’s market – Cost effective, but can you market time?

Gold acts as an inflation hedge, currency hedge and also acts as a flight to quality asset in recessionary times

US Dollar risk to consider & no yield, but only held as part of overall portfolio

58

Page 59: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

UCITS III – Absolute Return (“sophisticated”) vs. Long Only (“non-sophisticated”) funds

Long only

Highly correlated to equity/fixed interest indices

Outperformance rather than absolute returns

Limited ability to protect the fund when market

is falling

Derivatives used for “efficient portfolio

management” purposes only

“Commitment” approach to risk management

Regulated by FSA

59

Long and (“synthetic”) short strategies – like

hedge funds

Low correlation to equity returns

Aim for positive returns in all market conditions

Can actively manage the fund’s market exposure

(long, short or neutral).

Derivatives for investment and hedging purposes

Value at Risk (VaR)

Regulated by FSA (unlike hedge funds)

Funds managed with the aim of delivering absolute (i.e. more than zero) returns in any market conditions. Typically, funds in this sector would normally expect to deliver absolute (more than zero) returns on a 12 month basis. IMA

Absolute return Long only

Page 60: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

Evaluating – Absolute return funds

Investment philosophy and objectives

Resources

Investment process

Portfolio construction

Risk

60

Qualitative aspects Quantitative aspects

VaR, drawdown, volatility, alpha, correlation and many more

Page 61: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

How to monitor

Corporate and individual / team experience

Managers ability

To what extent new powers will be used

Main asset play or multi asset

Risk monitoring and managements

Understanding and articulation of fees

USE WEBSITES OVERLEAF

(see appendices for performance fee method of our fund)

61

Page 62: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

The Future

Investors have a choice of an potential all weather vehicle

Less correlation to market

Cash plus, Target & Absolute return strategies available, designed to return with less volatility

Not all are the same, not all will perform as 2009 proved

62

Page 63: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

How will the performance fee work?

Fee is calculated and accrued daily in the price and is paid annually, from the fund, on 31 October each year (the last day of accounting year). However, this 15% performance fee will only be paid if the fund outperforms the Hurdle and High Water Mark

63

Performance Fee

Page 64: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

64

Websites and surveys

www.fundslibrary.co.uk Fund comparison site

www.defaqto.co.uk Guide to sector

www.obsr.co.uk Research & ratings

www.investopedia.co.uk Glossary of terms

www.jupiteronline.co.uk Jupiter AR Fund

Page 65: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

65

A possible process for picking funds?

Look at the majority of funds with a track record, 3 or 5 years+ on both an absolute and relative basis

Perform quantitative performance and risk analysis using a tool

Carry out qualitative research using tool, factsheets and independent reports

Find out how the fund is rated by the major agencies, if not check if there are still reasons to choose before filtering out

Make sure the fund adds to the portfolio’s diversity and does not concentrate in similar areas for correlation

Monitor your funds with pre-populated quant reports and regular reading / updates, maybe semi annual or more regularly

Assuming specific client requirements are considered, then

Page 66: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

66

Caveats

Manger may have recently moved to the group/fund after strong performance elsewhere – Eg. Philip Ehrmann, Jupiter China

Manager may have run offshore/ hedge or institutional mandates and has a strong record to bring to the retail market – Eg. Philip Gibbs, Jupiter Absolute Return

Fund may be a new derivative of another successful fund / manager Eg. Ariel Bezalel, Co manager of Jupiter High Income and Manager of short term success with Strategic Bond

Fund may have new manager and become a recovery story Eg. Ben Whitmore, Jupiter UK Special Situations

Fund maybe a new concept with suitability for modern investing – AR fund as above

Page 67: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

Making changes - To manage or not to manage?

Is the IFA an investment expert or financial planner?

It all takes a lot of time, resource, and this costs money

World is changing and fast so dynamic portfolios required

Too much choice, so how do you slim down but at the same time avoid missing new opportunities

CGT on switches outside of a wrapper

Paperwork and reporting

Reviews essential

67

Page 68: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

68

Multi Management

Abdication or delegation?

Page 69: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

69

Benefits of Multi Management

Expert analysis of markets and funds on a daily basis

Saving time so more can be spent on clients and their core needs

Diversification with access to more than just conventional onshore funds

Investment risk can be spread, as our funds hold an average of 12 underlying funds and that gives access to well over 1000 stocks

Consolidation of your core holdings, one portfolio, one report, one point of contact

To manage to not to manage?

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Practical solutions for investors

Financial planning

Influence the variables that you control

Maximise use of tax breaks etc

Constantly evaluate your financial goals

Investing

Manage your expectations

Adopt a forward looking focus

Use flexible mandates

Embrace risk

Analyse performance over meaningful time periods

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“A goal without a plan is just a wish” Antoine de Saint-Exupery

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Minimum amount earned per hour of work

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Source: Jupiter

PORTFOLIO SIZE

HOURLYRATE £25,000 £50,000 £75,000 £100,000 £125,000 £150,000 £200,000 £250,000

£25 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 40.00 50.00

TIME

£50 2.50 5.00 7.50 10.00 12.50 15.00 20.00 25.00

£75 1.67 3.33 5.00 6.67 8.33 10.00 13.33 16.67

£100 1.25 2.50 3.75 5.00 6.25 7.50 10.00 12.50

£125 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 8.00 10.00

£150 0.83 1.67 2.50 3.33 4.17 5.00 6.67 8.33

£175 0.71 1.43 2.14 2.86 3.57 4.29 5.71 7.14

£200 0.63 1.25 1.88 2.50 3.13 3.75 5.00 6.25

£225 0.56 1.11 1.67 2.22 2.78 3.33 4.44 5.56

£250 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 4.00 5.00

£125.00 £250.00 £375.00 £500.00 £625.00 £750.00 £1,000.00 £1,250.00

RENEWAL FEES

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Reduce your workload

Page 73: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

Merlin Market view

Page 74: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

Jupiter Independent Funds team

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Algy Smith-MaxwellDirector

John Chatfeild-RobertsDirector

Peter Lawery Director

2001 to Present – Jupiter Asset Management 1995 to 2001 – Lazard Asset Management 1989 to 1995 – Henderson Global Investors

2001 to Present – Jupiter Asset Management 1999 to 2001 – Lazard Asset Management 1995 to 1999 – Henderson Global Investors

2001 to Present – Jupiter Asset Management 1992 to 2001 – Lazard Asset Management

Page 75: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

Merlin View

Cash – recent deployment of cash to buy defensive managers

Fixed Interest – Main strategy to buy Strategic Bond Managers

UK Equities – Defensive, experienced Income Managers

Global Equities – Like US Global winners, GEM Direct and indirect, u/w Europe

Others – No Property, hold Gold and energy funds

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We always look at fundamentals, and for liquidity and long terms absolute returns!

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Market thoughts

Working age population

898 961 1,034 1,1371,294

1,4691,684

1,9362,187

2,4192,671

2,9463,202

3,4203,591

3,7493,873 3,953 4,002 4,033 4,025

526 556 579 613 646 680 713 745 768 784 805 823 836 830 820 809 796 784 771 758 744

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

1950 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 2000 05 10E 15E 20E 25E 30E 35E 40E 45E 50E

Emerging Developed

Source: UNPD, Morgan Stanley June 2009.

Global emerging markets – powerful demographics

Rapid growth of middle class will drive wealth creation, consumption and urbanisation

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Decoupling; 10 years of proof?

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-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

% Growth

Outperformance over ten years = 275%

Source: Financial Express, total return 31.08.01 to 31.08.11. *Source: Morgan Stanley 2012 growth estimate.

MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) 291.1%

S&P 500 Index 16.3%

Growth in emerging markets (6.1%) to outpace developed (1.5%)*

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Our Market is global

70% + of FTSE 100 earnings are overseas

2 constituents of FTSE 100 are Kazakhstan copper miners

No link between GDP and FTSE growth as a result

Income managers with strong dividends offer Global opportunities with UK security

The new “normal”

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Colgate: Developed world company – developing world growth

Iconic brand with leading 44% global market share

Highly profitable operating margins of 24%

Exposed to emerging world dynamics but with:

Economic & accounting transparency

Corporate governance

Subject to the rule of law

Source: Colgate, Jupiter

BRIC sales = 46% of total sales

Market share

Brazil 70%

Russia 35%

India 51%

China 32%

Page 80: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

Making changes – to manage or not to manage?

Is the IFA an investment expert or financial planner?

It all takes a lot of time, resource, and this costs money

World is changing and fast so dynamic portfolios required

Too much choice, so how do you slim down but at the same time avoid missing new opportunities

CGT on switches outside of a wrapper

Paperwork and reporting

Reviews essential

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Page 81: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

Managers we hold - Include

Richard Woolnough, M&G, Ariel Bezalel, Jupiter – Strategic Bond Funds

Neil Woodford – IP Income, Tom Dobell – M&G Recovery

Angus Tulloch & Martin Lau –First State Asia Funds

James Findlay – Findlay Park US

Gold ETF / Energy Funds

We always look at fundamentals, and for liquidity and long terms absolute returns!

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Page 82: Working in partnership with The PFS Investment principles and risk – “Building Successful Portfolios" Autumn 2011

Final comments

Platforms and Pricing

www.theplatforum.co.uk

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Disclosure

Jupiter Unit Trust Managers Limited (‘JUTM’) and Jupiter Asset Management Limited (‘JAM’) are both registered in England and Wales (nos. 2009040 and 2036243). The registered office of both is 1 Grosvenor Place, London SW1X 7JJ. JUTM and JAM are authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority whose address is 25 The North Colonnade, Canary Wharf, London E14 5HS. 

This presentation is intended for investment professionals and not for the benefit of private investors. However any one attending the presentation or who has the opportunity to view the accompanying slides should bear in mind that the value of an investment in a unit trust and the income from it can go down as well as up. It may be affected by exchange rate variations and you may not get back the amount invested. Initial charges are likely to have a greater proportionate effect on returns if investments are liquidated in the shorter term. Quoted yields are not guaranteed. Current tax levels and reliefs will depend on the nature of the holding and details are contained in the key features documents. Past performance should not be seen as a guide to future performance.

For your security we may record or randomly monitor all telephone calls. If you are unsure of the suitability of an investment please contact your financial advisor. Any data or views given should not be construed as investment advice. Every effort is made to ensure the accuracy of the information but no assurance or warranties are given.