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[FX] , 2,
/ (1/2, 1050.3) . 2011, 2013, .
. 2 1030 .
1) , 2) 3) . 4) 1050 .
. 1050 .
1000 . . 1050 .
. . . .
//// , , , , ????
: KDB
2014.4.9
02-768-3069 [email protected]
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
08 09 10 11 12 13 14
/()
2014.4.9
2 / ,
3/26, [FX] , - , (1/2, 1050.3) . 1079 1050 25 .
/ 1050 ?
2 ( ) . 2 1030 .
. 1 59 3 . . 3 110.8$ 3 111.8$ .
.
1111. . . . 1111 59595959$ $ $ $ , , , , 2222....
: KDB : KDB
. . .
. 3 5.2% (+17%YoY) EU (+15.2%) (+4.5%) .
, 2, 2, 2, 2
, , , ,
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
2011 2012 2013 2014($)
?
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
_ A+B
($,6MA,+)
2014.4.9
2~3 . GDP 5%(13 6%) .
3333. . . . , , , , 4444. . . . , , , ,
OECD
: KDB : KDB
, .
. . 27% IMF . 34% . .
1080 . .
5555. . . . 12121212 (((( ) ) ) ) > > > > 6666. . . . , IMF , IMF , IMF , IMF
OECD
: KDB : KDB
-30
-10
10
3096
98
100
102
104
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
OECD (L)/ (R)
(P) (YoY,%)
-30-20-10
0102030405060
10 11 12 13 14
EU
(YoY,%,3MA)
050
100150200250300350400450
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
($)
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
30
40
50
60
70
94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
/ (L)/(R)
(%) (%)
2014.4.9
1050105010501050 .
2011 2013 1050 1) , 2) .
1111. . . . 2011201120112011 //// ////
2011-07-27 1050.0 (10 2 ), 2 QE (6 ), (8 ) 2013-01-11 1054.7 , (2 , 3 ), (2 ) 2014-01-02 1050.3 , , 2014-04-08 1053.0 : KDB
. ECB. ECB. ECB. ECB .
2015 . . EU , . . .
2222 . . . . . . .
7777. . . . 8888. . . . , , , ,
: KDB : KDB
1050 .
. 1050105010501050 . 10, 1054 2008 1 (??? ??) .
, , , ,
1050105010501050 ,,,,
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
65707580859095
100105110
11 12 13 14
/ (L)- 2 (R)
() (%)
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
(L) PMI (R)
(YoY,%) (P)
2014.4.9
. .
1000100010001000 . 1050 . 3 . 10 / 1050 .
1050105010501050 . . . .
. . .
9999. . . . , , , , 10101010. . . . 2014201420142014 1050105010501050
: KDB : KDB
2222. . . . //// (((( )))) (((( )))) , , ECB ECB ($)
, () - -
( ) : KDB
1000100010001000
950
1000
1050
1100
KOTRA
/ /100()
950
1,000
1,050
1,100
1,150
1,200
1,250
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
10 11 12 13 14
(L)/ (R)
($) ()