01 Climate Change LA and Caribbean

7/27/2019 01 Climate Change LA and Caribbean

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Climate Change in Latin

America and the Caribbean

An overview
http://americas.sas.ac.uk/


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Structure

LAC Physical Environmentand Resources

LAC SocioeconomicEnvironment

AnthropogenicEnvironmental Change

Current and ProjectedRegional Impacts of

Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation

to Climate Change


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Physical

Environment

Great climatic variation

(latitude and altitude)plus ENSO

Vegetation/biodiversityassociated with climaticzones

Wealth of naturalresources

Fragile Environments


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Socioeconomic

Environment

Colonial heritage

persists

Cultural Diversity

Population distributed

unevenly: mega citiesand sparsely populated

rural areas.


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Historical Anthropogenic

Environmental Change

Indigenous natural resource use Colonial occupation and impacts

Modernisation and industrialisation


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LAC cities with > one million inhabitants


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CO2 Emissions from the RegionCountry Emissions of CO2/capita in

tons/annum (2000)

USA 5.5

Cayman Islands 2.1

Venezuela 1.8

Mexico 1.2

Argentina 1.0

St Lucia 0.6

Brazil 0.5

Bolivia 0.4

El Salvador 0.3

Honduras and Nicaragua 0.2

Paraguay 0.15

Ethiopia 0.01


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Current Global Scenario

Five warmest years on record:

2005, 1998, 2002, 2003 and 2004

Hydrometeorological disasters have increased

by more than 100% in last 10 years 1990s v. 1960s: 400% more major natural

catastrophes, with costs to world economiesincreasing more than 800%

90% of natural disaster fatalities in 1990s due tohydrometeorological events.

(Roberts and Parks, 2007: 9).


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Regional Climate Change

(GEF, 2004) Increasing minimum temperatures for the

region as a whole

Annual precipitation increasing in sub-tropical South America east of the Andes

Increased frequency of heavy rainfall andflooding events.

Decreased precipitation West of the

Andes Melting of glaciers and high altitude snowand ice cover

Bleaching episodes in the Mesoamerican

Reef System


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Simms and Reid (2006)

El Nio is a crucialfactor

Increasing intensity oftropical storms and

hurricanes: SouthernMexico, CentralAmerica, TheCaribbean

Sea-level rise:Caribbean, CentralAmerica, Venezuelaand Uruguay


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Current GEF-funded studies of

climate risks in LAC

Rio de la Plata (Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina):

flooding events and changes in fisheriesproductivity

Pampas: changes in mixed farming productivitydue to CC and related changes in crop pest and

diseases Mexico and Argentina: climate related risks to

small-holder farmers

Caribbean: increasing incidence of dengue

fever.


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IPCC (2007) Projected Impacts of

CC in LA and the Caribbean Gradual replacement of tropical forest by savannah

in Eastern Amazonia

In NE SA, semi-arid vegetation replaced by arid-landvegetation

Significant biodiversity loss through habitatdestruction and species extinction in tropical LA andthe Caribbean

Tropical areas: productivity of crop and livestock todecrease withve impact on food security

Increase in soybean productivity in temperate zones,but overall increase in number at risk of hunger

Changes in ppt. and decrease in glacial coverreducing water for human consumption, agricultureand energy generation.


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Highly Vulnerable LA and Caribbean

CountriesRoberts and Parks (2007)

World vulnerability rank controlled for

population size:Honduras, Nicaragua, St Lucia, Haiti,Belize and Antigua & Barbados.

Without controlling for population size:

Mexico, Venezuela, Brazil and Argentina


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LA and Caribbean

Vulnerability to Climate ChangeVulnerability: social, economic, environmental & institutional

Countries with colonial legacies of

resource extraction suffer from

declining terms of trade, commodity pricevolatility, low levels of internal integration,

degraded natural environments, weak civil

societies, feeble domestic institutions, highdomestic inequality and large informal

sectors. (Roberts and Parks, 2007: 86-7)


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Adaptation to Climate Change in

LA and Caribbean (GEF, 2004) Adaptation is needed now!

Adaptation to climate change should beintegrated with development policy

Further knowledge of climate changevulnerability and adaptation is needed

Important scientific and technicalcapacities exist in LA and the Caribbean

Building adaptation capacity requires themobilisation and sustaining ofpartnerships among policy, practitioner,stakeholder and science communities.


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GEF Projects related to CC

mitigation and adaptation

in LA: 1991-2006

Removing barriers to energy conservation andefficiency: 12

Promoting adoption of renewable energy by

removing barriers and reducing costs: 23 Reducing Long-term costs of low greenhouse

gas-emitting energy technologies: 06

Promoting environmentally sustainable

transport: 06 Climate Change Enabling Activities: 38

Climate Change short-term measures: 04

Adaptation Plans: 03 (one regional, one global)


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Examples of Adaptation

Regional democratisation

Cuba disaster preparedness

Community Forest Management in Mexico

Rapidly developing biofuels industry in

Brazil Curitiba, Brazil


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Key Issues

LAC climates are changing

Colonial legacy Globally significant energy sector

Globally significant biodiversity resources

Fragile environments, decreasing yields

Water availability decline - conflicts Diverse cultures of NR management

High levels of inequality

Poverty - lack of environmental justice

Inc. transmission of vector-borne diseases Significant regional trading blocs

Resource extractive economies

Spreading populist sentiments/regimes


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ReferencesBray, Merino and Barry (2005) The Communi ty Forests o f Mexico.

University of Texas Press: Austin TX.Deere and Esty (eds) (2002) Greening the Americas. MIT:

Cambridge MA.

GEF (2004) Its raining, its pouring Its time to be adaptingReport of the 2nd AIACC Regional Workshop fo r Lat in Americaand th e Caribbean. Buenos Aires 24-27 August, 2004.

http://www.aiacproject.org/meetings/Buenos_Aires_04/Buenos_Aires.pdf

IPCC Summary of the Synthesis Report o f the IPCC FourthAssessment Repor t. (17 November, 2007).

IPCC (1997) The Region al Impacts of Cl imate Change: AnAs sessm ent of Vulnerabi l i ty.

Roberts and Parks (2007) A Climate of Injust ice. MIT: CambridgeMA.

Simms and Reid (2006) Up in Smoke? Lat in America and theCaribbeanIIED/nef: London

Utting (Ed) (2002) The Greening o f Bu siness in DevelopingCountr ies. Zed: London.

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01 Climate Change LA and Caribbean