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01 July 2002 slide number SSA-1 HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa July 2002

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-1 HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa July 2002

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01 July 2002 slide number SSA-1

HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa

July 2002

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-2

• Trends in the HIV/AIDS Epidemic• Different Sectors of the Population• HIV/AIDS and Youth• Impact of HIV/AIDS• Knowledge and Behavior• Success Stories

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-3

Trends in the HIV/AIDS Epidemic

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-4

HIV prevalence in adults HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, end 2001in sub-Saharan Africa, end 2001

20 – 39%

10 – 20%

5 – 10%

1 – 5%

0 – 1%

trend data unavailable

outside region

2001

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-5

HIV prevalence in adults HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 1986-2001in sub-Saharan Africa, 1986-2001

20 – 39%

10 – 20%

5 – 10%

1 – 5%

0 – 1%

trend data unavailable

outside region

1986 1991

1996 2001

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-6

Number of people living with HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa, 1980-2001

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001

Mill

ion

s

Source: UNAIDS, 2002

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-7

Number of people who died from HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa, 1980-2001

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001

Th

ou

san

ds

Source: UNAIDS, 2002

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1990 2000‘91 ‘92 ‘93 ‘94 ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘01

Source: Department of Health, Republic of South Africa

HIV prevalence among pregnant women HIV prevalence among pregnant women in South Africa, 1990 to 2001in South Africa, 1990 to 2001

HIV

pre

vale

nc

e (%

)

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-9

Estimated adult HIV prevalence Estimated adult HIV prevalence in Kenya, 1990-1999in Kenya, 1990-1999

Source: National AIDS and STD Control Programme, 1999 and UNAIDS

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1990 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 1999

HIV

pre

vale

nc

e (%

)

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-10

Kenya: HIV prevalence for adults and pregnant women Major urban and outside major urban areas

Year

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

1985 1990 1995 2000

Urban

OutsideUrban

Median(Urban)

Median(OutsideUrban)

UNAIDSAdult Prevalence

HIV

pre

vale

nc

e (%

)

Source: 1 UNAIDS/WHO Epi Country Fact Sheets 2001. 2 U.S. Census Bureau Database

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-11

Senegal: HIV prevalence for pregnant women Major urban and outside major urban areas

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

2.4

1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

2.8

3.2Urban

Outside Urban

Median (Urban)

Median (Outside Urban)

UNAIDS adult prevalence

HIV

Pre

vale

nce

, (%

)

Source: 1 UNAIDS/WHO Epi Country Fact Sheets 2001. 2 U.S. Census Bureau Database. 3 Conseil National de Lutte Contre le SIDA, Republique du Senegal

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-12

HIV prevalence rates among pregnant women attending HIV prevalence rates among pregnant women attending antenatal clinics in urban sites in Cameroon: 1989-2000antenatal clinics in urban sites in Cameroon: 1989-2000

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Bamenda

Limbe

Yaounde

Garoua

% H

IV-

po

siti

ve

Source: National AIDS Programme, Cameroon (1989-2000). Data compiled by the US Census Bureau

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-13

Laun

ch o

f AA

I

Neg

otia

tion

with

R&

D P

harm

a w

ithin

the

AA

I

Cip

la o

ffer o

f pric

e re

duct

ion

to U

gand

a

Furt

her p

rice

redu

ctio

ns b

y B

MS

and

Mer

ck

Furt

her

disc

ussi

on w

ith C

ipla

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Pri

ce

US

$

Jun1998

Jul1998

Aug1998

Apr2000

Nov2000

Dec2000

Jan2001

Feb2001

Mar2001

Apr2001

May2001

Jun2001

Jul2001

Aug2001

Oct2000

Source: WHO/UNAIDS, 2002

Prices (US$/year) of a first-line antiretroviral regimen in Uganda: 1998-2001

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-14

Different Sectors of the Population

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-15

HIV prevalence among people HIV prevalence among people consuming alcohol and among non-drinkers, consuming alcohol and among non-drinkers,

Carletonville, South Africa, 1998Carletonville, South Africa, 1998

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

men women women in commercial

sex areas

drinkersnon-drinkers

Source: Campbell et al. (unpublished data)

HIV

pre

vale

nc

e (%

)

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-16

HIV prevalence rate and frequency HIV prevalence rate and frequency of sexually transmitted infection (STI) episodes, of sexually transmitted infection (STI) episodes,

Carletonville miners, South Africa, 1991-1998Carletonville miners, South Africa, 1991-1998

10

30

50

70

90

1 2 - 4 5 - 9 10+

Number of STI episodes

Source: Ballard R, 2000 (unpublished data).

HIV

pre

vale

nc

e (%

)

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-17

Percentage of workforce lost to AIDS Percentage of workforce lost to AIDS by 2005 and 2020 in selected African countriesby 2005 and 2020 in selected African countries

0

10

20

30

40

50

%

2005 2020

Bo

tsw

ana

Cam

ero

on

Cen

tral

Afr

ican

Rep

ub

lic

Co

te d

’Ivo

ire

Eth

iop

ia

Gu

inea

-Bis

sau

Mo

zam

biq

ue

Nig

eria

So

uth

Afr

ica

To

go

Un

ited

Rep

. of

Tan

zan

ia

Zim

bab

we

Sources: ILO (2000) POPILO population and labour force projection; UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (1998) World Population Prospects: the 1998 Revision

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-18

HIV prevalence in military personnel in AfricaHIV prevalence in military personnel in Africa

Nigeria: 11% among peacekeepers returning from

Sierra Leone and Liberia vs 5% in adult population

South Africa: 60-70% in military vs 20% in adult

population

Source: Nigeria AIDS bulletin No 15, May 20, 2000; The Mail & Guardian, Pretoria, March 31, 2000; UNAIDS/WHO 1999 estimate

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-19

HIV prevalence by self-reported HIV prevalence by self-reported urban/rural residence among ANC attendees urban/rural residence among ANC attendees

aged 15-24, Zimbabwe 2000aged 15-24, Zimbabwe 2000

p = 0.8

Source: Ministry of Health and Child Welfare, Zimbabwe

0

10

20

30

40

50

Rural (n=1753)

Urban (n=1544)

Place of Usual Residence

Per

cen

t

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-20

Newly diagnosed AIDS cases Newly diagnosed AIDS cases and medical expenditure on an agricultural estate and medical expenditure on an agricultural estate

in Kenya, 1989 to 1997in Kenya, 1989 to 1997

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Nu

mb

er o

f n

ewly

dia

gn

ose

d

AID

S c

ases

0

5

10

15

20

25

Med

ical

exp

end

itu

re

(KS

h m

illi

on

s)

1989 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 1997

new AIDS casesmedical spending

Source: Rugalema et al. HIV/AIDS and the commercial agricultural sector of Ken UNDP/FAO, 1999

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-21

Condom use among men with non-regular partners over time Condom use among men with non-regular partners over time in selected sub-Saharan African countries: 1994-2000in selected sub-Saharan African countries: 1994-2000

20

30

40

50

60

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Malawi

Tanzania

Uganda

Zambia%

Source: Macro International (1994-2000) Demographic Health Surveys; Measure Evaluation

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-22

HIV prevalence by educational level HIV prevalence by educational level among ANC attendees aged 15-44, among ANC attendees aged 15-44,

Zimbabwe, 2000Zimbabwe, 2000

p<0.01

Source: Ministry of Health and Child Welfare, Zimbabwe

0

10

20

30

40

50

None (n=154)

Primary(n=1769)

Secondary(n=3718)

Tertiary (n=9)

Education Level

Per

cen

t

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-23

HIV/AIDS and Youth

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-24

Prevalence among pregnant women Prevalence among pregnant women in major urban areas, Ugandain major urban areas, Uganda

Source: Uganda National AIDS Programme

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1985 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000

Pre

vale

nce

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-25

HIV prevalence by age HIV prevalence by age among ANC attendees, Zimbabwe 2000among ANC attendees, Zimbabwe 2000

Source: Ministry of Health and Child Welfare, Zimbabwe

0

10

20

30

40

50

15-19 n=1286

20-24 n=2045

25-29 n=1334

30-34 n=648

35-39 n=284

40-44 n=96

Age Group

Per

cen

t

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-26

HIV prevalence rate among teenagers HIV prevalence rate among teenagers by age in Kisumu, Kenyaby age in Kisumu, Kenya

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

15 16 17 18 19

Age in years

HIV

pre

va

len

ce

(%)

boysgirls

Source: National AIDS Programme, Kenya, and Population Council, 1999

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-27

Percentage of women who are mothers or pregnant by the end of their teens, 1990-1998

Source: Demographic and Health Surveys, various countries

0

20

40

60

80

Benin

Camer

oon

CAR

Comoro

s

Côte d

'Ivoire

Ghana

Kenya

Mad

agas

car

Mal

i

Moza

mbiq

ue

Namib

ia

Niger

Niger

ia

Rwanda

Seneg

al

Togo

Uganda

Zambia

Zimbab

we

Per

cen

tag

e o

f w

om

en

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-28

The Impact of HIV/AIDS

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-29

Projected population structure with Projected population structure with and without the AIDS epidemic, Botswana, 2020and without the AIDS epidemic, Botswana, 2020

80757065605550454035302520151050

020406080100120140 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Males Females

Deficits due to AIDS

Projected population structure in 2020

Population (thousands)

Ag

e in

yea

rs

Source: US Census Bureau, World Population Profile 2000

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-30

Increase in mortality among men between Increase in mortality among men between 15 and 60, selected African countries, 1986-199715 and 60, selected African countries, 1986-1997

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Tanzania 1996

Malawi 1992

Zimbabwe 1994

Uganda1995

Zambia 1996-97

Pro

ba

bil

ity

of

dy

ing

fr

om

all

ca

us

es

estimated for 6 years before survey

estimated for year of survey

Source: Timaeus I, AIDS 1998, 12 (suppl): S15-S27

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-31

Adult mortality attributable to HIV, Adult mortality attributable to HIV, community-based studies in Africa, 1990-1996community-based studies in Africa, 1990-1996

Source: Boerma JT et al, AIDS 1998, 12 (suppl 1): S3-S14

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Rakai, Uganda (21% HIV)

Masaka, Uganda (8% HIV)

Kisesa, Tanzania (7% HIV)

Mwanza, Tanzania (4% HIV)

Mortality per 1,000 person - years

Mortality among HIV-negatives

Excess mortality due to HIV

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-32

Trends in mortality among children Trends in mortality among children under five years old and end-1999 adult HIV prevalence rate, under five years old and end-1999 adult HIV prevalence rate,

selected African countries, 1981-1996selected African countries, 1981-1996

Source: Demographic and Health Surveys, Macro International, USA

KenyaHIV prevalence 14.1%

ZambiaHIV prevalence 19.9%

CameroonHIV prevalence 7.7%

80 %

85 %

90 %

95 %

100 %

105 %

110 %

1980 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 1998

Rel

ati

ve

un

der

-5 m

ort

alit

y

(198

1 =

10

0%

)

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-33

Probability of a Zimbabwean boy aged 15 Probability of a Zimbabwean boy aged 15 dying before age 50, trends over time, dying before age 50, trends over time,

various national surveysvarious national surveys

Source: Feeney G, 1999 (unpublished data).

10

20

30

40

50

60

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Pro

bab

ilit

y o

f d

yin

g

bef

ore

ag

e 50

(%

)

reports from surviving siblings

death registration

household reports of death

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-34

Estimated impact of AIDS on under-5 child Estimated impact of AIDS on under-5 child mortality rates, selected African countries, 2010mortality rates, selected African countries, 2010

Botswana Kenya Malawi Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe

0

50

100

150

200

250Deaths per 1,000 live births

Without AIDS

With AIDS

Source: US Census Bureau

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-35

Changes in life expectancy in selected African countries Changes in life expectancy in selected African countries with high and low HIV prevalence: 1950 - 2005with high and low HIV prevalence: 1950 - 2005

with high HIV prevalence:

Zimbabwe

South Africa

Botswana

with low HIV prevalence:

Madagascar

Senegal

Mali

Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2001) World Population Prospects, the 2000 Revision.

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Lif

e e

xp

ecta

ncy

(y

ears

)

1950– 1955

1955- 1960

1960-1965

1965-1970

1970-1975

1975-1980

1980-1985

1985-1990

1990-1995

1995-2000

2000-2005

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-36

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Cambodia

Haiti

Mozambique

Rwanda

Côte d'Ivoire

Zambia

Kenya

South Africa

Zimbabwe

Botswana

Life expectancy at birth (years)

Predicted life expectancy Loss in life expectancy due to HIV/AIDS

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000

Predicted loss in life expectancy Predicted loss in life expectancy due to HIV/AIDS in children born in 2000due to HIV/AIDS in children born in 2000

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-37

Lifetime risk of AIDS death for 15-year-old boys, Lifetime risk of AIDS death for 15-year-old boys, assuming unchanged or halved risk assuming unchanged or halved risk

of becoming infected with HIV, selected countriesof becoming infected with HIV, selected countries

Source: Zaba B, 2000 (unpublished data)

Current adult HIV prevalence rate

Burkina Faso

Cambodia

Côte d’Ivoire

Kenya

South Africa

Zambia

Zimbabwe

Botswana

Burkina FasoCambodia

Côte d’Ivoire

Kenya

South AfricaZambia

Zimbabwe

Botswana

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Ris

k o

f d

yin

g o

f A

IDS

risk halved over next 15 years

current level of risk maintained

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-38

LeadingLeading causes of death causes of death in Africa, 2000in Africa, 2000

Source: The World Health Report 2001, WHO

22.6

10.1 9.16.7

5.5 4.3 3.6 3.1 2.9 2.3

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

HIV/AIDS Malaria Perinatalconditions

Tuberculosis

Cerebrovascular disease

Diarrhoeal disease

Lowerrespiratory infections

Measles Ischaemic Heart

disease

Maternalconditions

% ofTotal

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-39

Leading causes of disease burden Leading causes of disease burden in Africa, 2000in Africa, 2000

Source: The World Health Report 2001, WHO

* Unintentional injuries aside from traffic accidents, poisoning, falls, fires and drowning

20.6

10.18.6

6.3 6.14.5 3.6 2.8 1.9 1.8

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

HIV/AIDS

Malaria

Lowerrespiratoryinfections

Perinatalconditions

Diarrhoealdiseases

Measles

Maternalconditions

Tuberculosis

Otherunintentionalinjuries*

Pertussis

% ofTotal

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-40

Impact of HIV/AIDS Impact of HIV/AIDS on urban households, Côte d’Ivoireon urban households, Côte d’Ivoire

Impact of HIV/AIDS Impact of HIV/AIDS on urban households, Côte d’Ivoireon urban households, Côte d’Ivoire

Source: Simulation-based on data from Bechu, Delcroix and Guillaume, 1997

General populationGeneral population Families living with AIDSFamilies living with AIDS

Monthly income per capitaMonthly income per capita

Monthly consumptionper capita

Monthly consumptionper capita

00

5 0005 000

10 00010 000

15 00015 000

20 00020 000

25 00025 000

– 5 000– 5 000

30 000 Francs CFA30 000 Francs CFA

Savings/DisavingsSavings/Disavings

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-41

Reduction in production in a household Reduction in production in a household with an AIDS death, Zimbabwewith an AIDS death, Zimbabwe

Source: Stover & Bollinger, 1999

Crops Reduction in output

Maize

Cotton

Vegetables

Groundnuts

Cattle owned

49%

37%

29%

47%

61%

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-42

Estimated and projected deaths at ages 15-34, Estimated and projected deaths at ages 15-34, with and without AIDS in South Africa: 1980-2025with and without AIDS in South Africa: 1980-2025

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

Dea

ths

(Th

ou

san

ds)

1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025

Without AIDS

With AIDS

Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2001) World Population Prospects, the 2000 Revision.

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-43

Reduction in size of primary- school-age Reduction in size of primary- school-age population by 2010, in selected African countriespopulation by 2010, in selected African countries

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

Zimbabwe Zambia Kenya Uganda

% r

edu

ctio

n

Source: World Bank, 2000

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-44

Reduction in life expectancy compared to the Reduction in life expectancy compared to the ‘no AIDS’ scenario in selected countries: 2000-2005‘no AIDS’ scenario in selected countries: 2000-2005

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Number of years

ThailandMyanmar

AngolaDominican Rep.

CambodiaBahamas

GuyanaHaiti

Burkina FasoCameroon

Côte d'IvoireMozambique

Kenya

South AfricaSwazilandZimbabweBotswana

Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2001) World Population Prospects, the 2000 Revision.

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-45

Knowledge and Behavior

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-46

Percentage of 15-19 girls Percentage of 15-19 girls who do not know that a HIV-infected person who do not know that a HIV-infected person

may look healthy, 1994-1999may look healthy, 1994-1999

Sources: UNICEF, DHS surveys and other nationwide surveys, 1994-99.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Benin

Domin

ican

Rep

ublic

Camer

oon

Chad

Comoro

s

Côte d

'Ivoire

Brazil

Kenya

Mad

agas

car

Mal

awi

Mal

i

Moza

mbiq

ue

Haiti

Niger

Tanza

nia

Uganda

Zambia

Zimbab

we

Nepal

Lesoth

o

Bangla

desh

Cambodia

Guatem

ala

Papua

New G

uinea

Mongolia

South A

frica

Viet N

am

Cape

Verde

Centra

l Afri

can R

epublic

Eritre

a

Roman

ia

Turkey

TogoPer

u

Pe

rce

nta

ge

wh

o d

o n

ot

kn

ow

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-47

Knowledge of condoms Knowledge of condoms among adolescent boysamong adolescent boys

Sources: UNICEF, DHS surveys, 1994-1999

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Brazi

l

Brazi

l

Domin

ican

Rep

ublic

Domin

ican

Rep

ublic

Haiti

Haiti

Peru

Peru

Boliv

ia

Boliv

iaM

alaw

i

Mal

awi

Nicar

agua

Nicar

agua

Zam

bia

Zam

bia

Zim

babw

e

Zim

babw

eTa

nzan

ia

Tanz

ania

Kenya

Kenya

Ugand

a

Ugand

aM

ali

Mal

iNig

er

Niger

Moz

ambi

que

Moz

ambi

que

Chad

Chad

Do not know condomsDo not know condoms

Know condoms but Know condoms but not where to get themnot where to get them

Know condoms and Know condoms and where to get themwhere to get them

Per

cen

tag

e o

f 15

-19

yea

r o

ld b

oys

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-48

Percentage of 15-49 year old women Percentage of 15-49 year old women who are aware that HIV can be transmitted who are aware that HIV can be transmitted

from a mother to her child, 1994-1999 from a mother to her child, 1994-1999

Sources: UNICEF, DHS and other nationwide surveys, 1994-1999

Madagascar

NigerChad

Mali

BeninCameroon

Cote d'IvoireCAR

Tanzania

HaitiPeru

South AfricaKenya

UgandaZambia

Zimbabwe

Dominican Rep.

0% 10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-49

Risk perception percentage of sexually active women (15-19) percentage of sexually active women (15-19)

that perceive not to be at risk at all of getting AIDSthat perceive not to be at risk at all of getting AIDS

Sources: UNICEF, DHS surveys, 1994-1999

*HIV prevalence in women attending antenatal care clinics in major urban areas

ZimbabweZambiaUganda

KenyaCARHaiti

TogoCameroon

MaliChadBeninNiger

Dominican Rep.Brazil

GuatemalaBolivia

ColombiaNepal

Nicaragua0% 10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

HIV Prevalence (at time of survey *)

Percentage of 15-19 year old girls who think they are not at risk of AIDS

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-50

Number of reported rapes and convictions in Botswana, 1984 to 1997

Source: Emang Basadi Women’s Association, Botswana, 1998

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1984 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 1997

reported rapes

convictions

Nu

mb

er

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-51

Percentage of sexually experienced girls Percentage of sexually experienced girls in South Africa who say …in South Africa who say …

No61%

Yes39%

“I have been forced to have sex.”

Agree33%

Disagree60%7%

“I am afraid of saying no to sex.”

Agree55%

Disagree39%

6%

“There are times I don't want to have sexbut I do because my boyfriend

Insists on having sex.”

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation/KLA (2000) South African National Youth Survey

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-52

Condom gap in sub-Saharan Condom gap in sub-Saharan African countries in 1999African countries in 1999

Co

nd

om

s p

er m

an

pe

r ye

ar

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47

Average condom procurement of top 6 countries = 16.9

Additional condoms needed to get all countries to the level of 16.9 = 1.9 billion per year

Countries in sub-Saharan Africa, ordered by condom procurement rate

Six countries with highest

condom procurement

rate

Source: Shelton JD, Johnston B (2001) Condom gap in Africa: evidence from donor agencies and key infromants, British Medical Journal

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-53

Knowledge and beliefs Knowledge and beliefs concerning AIDS among AIDS orphans, concerning AIDS among AIDS orphans,

Rusinga Island, KenyaRusinga Island, Kenya

Source: Source: Johnston T et al. Population Communication Africa, Kenya, 1999Johnston T et al. Population Communication Africa, Kenya, 1999

Believe parents Believe parents died of AIDS died of AIDS

0000

2020

4040

6060

8080

100100

Know aboutKnow aboutAIDSAIDS

Believe people in Believe people in extended family extended family

died of AIDS died of AIDS

Orp

han

s h

old

ing

th

e b

elie

f (%

)O

rph

ans

ho

ldin

g t

he

bel

ief

(%)

Believe many people in their

community have died of AIDS

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-54

Casual sex and condom use Casual sex and condom use by educational status, Mozambiqueby educational status, Mozambique

Number of years respondent spent in school

Res

po

nd

ents

rep

ort

ing

th

e b

ehav

iou

r (%

)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0-2 3-6 7-9 10+

casual sex in the past year

condom use at last casual sex

Source: Agha S, et al. The promotion of safer sex among high-risk individuals in Mozambique, Population Services International, USA, 1999

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-55

Success Stories

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-56

HIV prevalence rate among 13 to 19-year-olds HIV prevalence rate among 13 to 19-year-olds Masaka, Uganda, 1989 to 1997Masaka, Uganda, 1989 to 1997

Source: Kamali et al. AIDS 2000, 14: 427-434

0

1

2

3

4

5

1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97

Girls

Boys

HIV

pre

va

len

ce

(%)

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-57

HIV prevalence rate among pregnant HIV prevalence rate among pregnant 15 to 19-year-olds, Lusaka, Zambia, 1993 to 199815 to 19-year-olds, Lusaka, Zambia, 1993 to 1998

Source: Ministry of Health, Zambia, 1999

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Chelstone Chilenje Kalingalinga Matero

Clinic

199319941998

HIV

pre

vale

nc

e (%

)

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-58

Prevalence among pregnant women, Prevalence among pregnant women, outside major urban areas, Ugandaoutside major urban areas, Uganda

Source: Uganda National AIDS Programme

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1989 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000

HIV

Pre

vale

nce

(%

)

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-59

Prevalence in 15-24 years old first time testers Prevalence in 15-24 years old first time testers Kampala, UgandaKampala, Uganda

Source: Uganda National AIDS Programme

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Males

Females

HIV

Pre

vale

nce

(%

)

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-60

Behavioural IndicatorsBehavioural IndicatorsUganda, 1996-2000Uganda, 1996-2000

Source: Uganda National AIDS Programme

1996-1997

1999-2000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Reported non-regular

sexual partners

Per

cen

tag

e

Reported condom

use with non-regular

partners

Reported incidence

of Urethritis (men)

Condom use at last sex with regular

partner

Age at first sex

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-61

Knowledge about HIV/AIDSKnowledge about HIV/AIDSUganda, 1996-2000Uganda, 1996-2000

Source: Uganda National AIDS Programme

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Knowledge of preventive practices

Knowledge of condom source

Knows a friend, colleague with AIDS

Per

cen

tag

e

0

1996 - 1997

1999 - 2000

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-62

% H

IV s

ero

po

siti

ve

HIV prevalence and reported consistent condom use among female sex workers, Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire, 1992-1998

% c

on

sist

en

t co

nd

om

use

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

20

40

60

80

100

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

HIV prevalenceReported consistent condom use

Source: Ghys PD et al. (2002) AIDS

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-63

Prevalence of sexually transmitted diseases among sex workers

Dakar, Senegal, 1991 and 1996

Source: National AIDS Programme, Senegal

0

10

20

30

40

50

Trichomonas vaginalis

Chlamydia trachomatis

Neisseria gonorrhoeae

Syphilis

STD prevalence (%) 1991

1996

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-64

Increase in reported condom use with non-regular Increase in reported condom use with non-regular partners in selected districts in Uganda: 1996-2000partners in selected districts in Uganda: 1996-2000

0

20

40

60

80

% c

on

do

m u

se

Source: STD/AIDS Control Programme, Uganda (2001) HIV/AIDS Surveillance Report

1997 1999 1996 1999 1997 2000 1997 2000

Mbara Mpigi Masindi Pallisa

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-65

Trends in HIV prevalence among pregnant women Trends in HIV prevalence among pregnant women in Kampala, Uganda: 1991-2000in Kampala, Uganda: 1991-2000

0

10

20

30

40

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

%

Source: STD/AIDS Control Programme, Uganda (2001) HIV/AIDS Surveillance Report

01 July 2002 slide number SSA-66

Public expenditure on health as percentage of general Public expenditure on health as percentage of general government expenditure in African countries: 1998government expenditure in African countries: 1998

Source: WHO, World Health Report 2001

Sao

Tom

e an

d Pr

inci

pe*

Bur

undi

Mor

occo

Cap

e Ve

rde

Con

goTo

goEg

ypt

Suda

nEr

itrea

Som

alia

Nig

eria

Bot

swan

aN

iger

*C

amer

oon*

Cot

e d'

Ivoi

reB

enin

*

Gab

onTu

nisi

a

Mad

agas

car*

Ken

ya*

Seyc

helle

sSw

azila

nd

Mal

i*G

hana

*U

gand

a*C

omor

osEt

hiop

ia*

Rw

anda

*M

aurit

ania

*B

urki

na F

aso

Leso

tho

Moz

ambi

que*

Gam

bia

Nam

ibia

Cha

d*Za

mbi

a*G

uine

a*Se

nega

l*D

R C

ongo

*M

alaw

i*U

R T

anza

nia

Zim

babw

e

Liby

an A

rab

Jam

ahiri

ya

Djib

outi

Ang

ola

Mau

ritiu

sSi

erra

Leo

ne*

Libe

ria

Equa

toria

l Gui

nea

Sout

h A

fric

a

Alg

eria

* Heavily indebted, poor countries

% E

xp

en

dit

ure

on

he

alt

h

Gui

nea-

Bis

sau*

Cen

tral

Afr

ican

Rep

ublic

*

0.0

3.0

6.0

9.0

12.0

15.0

18.0

Abuja Target = 15.0%