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IUGJEBS Vol 24, No3, 2016, pp 62-83
ISSN 2410-5198
73
IUG Journal of Economics and Business (Islamic University of Gaza) / CC BY 4.0
(22/10/2012(، تاريخ قبول النشر )00/00/2012الإرسال )تاريخ
على الخارجية الديون أثر
الاقتصادي النمو
المقترضة العربية الدول بعض حالة"
2000-2013"
،*1أبو مدللة ر مصطفىيمس .د
1شاهين أكرم محمدأ.
*
e-mail address: [email protected]
الملخص: في البحث إلى الدراسة هدفت حيث المقترضة، العربية الدول لبعض الاقتصادي النمو على الخارجية الديون أثر تحليل الدراسة هذه تبحث
المتمثلة الاقتصادية النظرية على الاعتماد خلال من، المعتمدة الفترة في وأسبابها المقترضة العربية للدول الخارجية الديون تاريخ تطور
، الخارجي دينها تكاليف خدمة على المقترضة الدول طاقة وبيان، أخرى ناحية من والواردات والصادرات ناحية من والاستثمار بالادخار
الارتباط توضيح إلى تهدف كما، التمويل من النوع هذا على الاعتماد في الإفراط خلال من الخارجي الدين عن الناجمة الآثار معرفة وكذلك
ثم، العلاقة ذات والبيانات المئوية والنسب الجداول يستخدم الذي الوصفي المنهج استخدام خلال من الاقتصادي النمو ومعدلات المديونية بين
صحة مدى من للتحقق المستقلة والمتغيرات التابع المتغير بين الحقيقية العلاقة لتوضيح البحث فرضيات لاختبار القياسي المنهج اعتماد
.الجمعي الاحصائي بالأسلوب الحالة لدول المحلي لناتجوا الخارجي الدين بين عكسية علاقة وجود الى الدراسة وخلصت، الفرضية
كلمات مفتاحية:
.الصادرات الاقتصادي، النمو الخارجية، الديون
The Effect of the External Debts on the Economic Growth
"The Case of some Borrowing Arab Countries 2000-2013" Abstract
This study examines the analysis of external debt impact on economic growth for some borrowing Arab countries, so the study aimed to find the external debt history evolution of the borrowing Arab countries and its causes in the approved period, by relying on the economic theory of saving and investment on the one hand, and exports and imports on the other hand, and the show how could the borrowing countries service its external debt costs, and also to know the over-reliance effects on external debt through this type of financing, it also aims to clarify the link between debt and economic growth rates through the use of descriptive approach that uses tables, percentages and the related data, then the adoption of a standard approach to test the research hypotheses to explain the true relationship between the dependent and independent variables to check the validity of the hypothesis. The main result of the study analysis shows that there is an inverse relationship between the external debt and GDP for all case countries.
Keywords:
External Debt, Economic Growth, Exports.
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World Bank, Global Development Finance, External Debt Report, 2000-2013
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0 02220202
GDP
DEPEXP
GDP =( DEP, EXP)+ = a+b1 EXP +b2 DEP + …
ab1b2
(ADF) (p-
p)13
02
Sig T Method 0.963 0.158 ADF
LevelG
0.996 1.145 P.P 0.025 3.404 ADF 1st.
Differences o.o48 0.3016 P.P 0.975 0.315 ADF
LevelDEP
0.975 0.351 P.P 0.001 4.552 ADF 1st.
Differences 0.001 4.552 P.P 0.999 1.751 ADF
LevelEXP
1.000 5.327 P.P 0.001 4.688 ADF 1st.
Differences 0.001 4.699 P.P
13
(Cointegeration test)
Engel & Granger
14
t ty 2tx e
00
Sig StatisticsMethod
0.108 1.236ADF Level
0.333 0.4331 P.P
0.492 1.971 ADF 1st. Differences 0.001 3.00 P.P
14
(t) (t)
Mackinnon, 1991
GDPDEBEXP
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Granger's Causality
F
F
F
15
02
(Probability) F
Ho
0.486 0.503 GDP DEP
0.031 5.361 DEP
GDP
0.822 0.051 GDP EXP
0.685 0.168 EXP GDP
0.767 0.089 GDP
DEP
0.343 0.942
DEP GDP
0.946 0.004 GDP EXP
0.000 21.046 EXP GDP
0.153 2.206 GDP DEP
0.366 0.852
DEP GDP
0.574 0.325 GDP EXP
0.025 5.809 EXP GDP
0.282 1.22 GDP DEP
0.076 3.486
DEP GDP
0.213 1.648 GDP EXP
0.412 0.700 EXP GDP
0.001 14.742 GDP DEP
0.026 5.706 DEP
GDP
0.141 2.340 GDP EXP
0.05 4.058 EXP GDP
0.858 0.032 GDP DEP
0.015 6.997
DEP GDP
0.284 1.212 GDP EXP
0.490 0.494 EXP GDP
0.515 0.437 GDP DEP
0.333 0.984
DEP GDP
0.720 0.131 GDP EXP
0.005 9.754 EXP GDP
0.381 0.080 GDP DEP
0.010 8.064
DEP GDP
0.747 0.106 GDP EXP
0.05 4.318 EXP GDP
0.063 0.3852 GDP DEP
0.102 2.936
DEP GDP
0.344 0.937 GDP EXP
0.107 2.835 EXP GDP
15
(Pooled Estimation)
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(GLS)
Generalized Least Square Method
24
9
(slope)(constant)
2
0.075 0.079 0.079
t = (6.303) (2.329) (6.659)
R 0.3413 dw=1.60
it it itGDP EX DEP
(t)
0.05
(t)2.0210DW= 1.60
34
1
0.34%
1
0.08
02220202 00
Unit Root Test
-
16
06
PP ADF
Co
un
try
1st. Differences
Level 1st.
Differences Level
39.929**0.325 38.982** 0.440
104.518** 3.778 43.500** 0.645
51.017** 5.019 44.030** 0.186
27.752** 0.055 27.619** 0.125
27.03** 0.389 26.99** 0.258
40.948** 0.560 15.181** 7.988
31.062** 2.25235.246** 11.186
35.225** 0.200 38.379** 0.262
64.148** 3.089 43.301** 3.357
1811
1815
16
(level)
(level)
1 2( ) ( ) ( )t t tGDP EXP EXD e
(First Difference)
1 2( ) ( ) ( )t t tGDP EXP EXD e
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09(Cointegration Test)
Z Tau Z Tau
8.9032.504 26.945** 4.434*
26.33 4.169 25.63** 5.240**
9.712.36 91.43** 5.720**
15.997 3.455 82.26** 2.73**
25.56** 4.32**
17
( ) 10.408 0.387( ) 0.319( )
= (3.021) (3.142) (2.917)
t t tGDP EXP EXD e
t
10.39%
F=361.68
2.069
0.97
97
DW=1.609
( ) 0.63 0.68( ) 0.37( )
= (1.364) (2.640) (1.206)
GDP EXP EXD e
t
0.05
1
0.68F=8.17
0.801
8181
DW=2.09
( ) 1.95 1.052( ) 0.008( )
= (2.082) (3.072 (0.072)
GDP EXP EXD e
t
0.05
1
1.05F=435.65
0.97
97
DW= 1.649
( ) 3.893 0.901( ) 0.145( )
= (1.038) (2.982) (1.367)
GDP EXP EXD e
t
0.05
1
0.9F=233.5
0.95
95
DW=1.584
( ) 2.219 0.732( ) 0.162( )
= (2.703) (3.804) (2.316)
GDP EXP EXD e
t
0.05
10.73
1%
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0.16%F=889.29
0.98
98
DW=1.64
( ) 8.46 0.05( ) 1.79( )
= (2.517) (1.406) (2.917)
GDP EXP EXD e
t
0.05
1
0.05F=169.54
0.94
94
DW=1.75
( ) 0.307 1.032( ) 0.032( )
= (1.307) (3.973) (1.839)
GDP EXP EXD e
t
0.05
1
1.32F=143.24
0.92
92
DW=1.636
( ) 0.011 0.249( ) 0.521( )
= (1.360) (1.969) (2.824)
GDP EXP EXD e
t
0.05
1
0.5F=8.21
0.45
45
DW=2.05
( ) 3.208 0.973( ) 0.524( )
= (1.052) (3.639) (2.643)
GDP EXP EXD e
t
0.05
10.97%
10.5
F=261.11
0.96
96
DW=1.79
( ) 2.595 0.832( ) 0.051( )
= (2.345) (2.861) (1.407)
GDP EXP EXD e
t
10.83%2
0.96R
96
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1.628DW
1
2
3
4
13
5
6
7
1
2
3
4
5
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2118
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1992
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