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Hydropower – The number one renewable energy today…. and tomorrow?Peter Stettner, Etienne Parkinson, / ANDRITZ HYDROESHA-Hydroaction Seminar, Brussels, 13 April 2011

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Hydropower – The number one renewable energy today…. and tomorrow?

Europe and the Renewable Energy Sources

Renewable Energy Sources Worldwide

Old power plants – the hidden treasures

The Role of Europe’s Hydropower Industry

R&D and Europe’s future workplaces

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Europe and the Renewable Energy Sources

Europe and the Renewable Energy Sources

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Meeting our “20-20-20 by 2020” goals

Source: Presentation of J.M. Barroso to the European Council, 4 February 2011

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EU-27 renewable electricity by source (2008)

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The Change of Generation Mix

Source: Pöyry Management Consulting

The generation mix in all European countries is essentially evolving towards renewable technologies ….

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Europe: Capacity vs. Generation

Operating hours matter: tremendous growth in installed capacity does not translate in the same proportion of generated electricity (wind / solar instability, distribution, storage)

Low carbon generation sources (RES, hydro, nuclear) will become the major generation source in the next decades (46 to 60% between 2008 and 2030)

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Europe: RES capacity takes off…

RES capacity, other than hydro, X 60 between 1980 and 2008

This trend is expected to continue up to 2030272 GW in 2020370 GW in 2030

Hydro capacity will remain crucial as back-up for intermittent RES

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Source: IEA Projected Costs of Generating Electricity; 2010 Edition

Electricity generating cost by technology

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Renewable Energy Sources Worldwide

Renewable Energy Sources Worldwide

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World power generation capacity evolution

World power generation capacity additions and investment by type in the New Policies Scenario

Source: IEA; World Energy Outlook 2010

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Significant global investments in RES

Source: International Energy Agency

In 2009, investment in renewable energy fell in the EU by 10% in the context of the economic crisis, while it increased by more by more than 50% in China(1 windmill per hour in China…)

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North America

12%

Africa7%

China17%

Asia41%

Europe9%

South America

14%

China22%

South America

15%Europe

19%

Asia23%

Africa3%

North America

18%

926 GW installed Capacity

North America

5%

China42%

Asia36%

South America

12% Europe2%

Africa3%

3,800 GW Potential

161 GW under Construction

The global hydropower potential

Source: Hydropower & Dams World Atlas, 2010

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Pumped Storage and Storage Technologies

Pumped Storage - How to make Renewables green ?

load profile

RES generation

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ENTSO - Installed Capacities 2010Total 962 GW

Wind; 75 GW;8%

Other RES; 111 GW; 12%

Hydro; 196 GW; 20%

Nuclear; 134 GW; 14%

Fossil; 446 GW; 46%

Wind power has tremendously increased it’s role in the European generation mix

Trend continuously growing

Approx. 75 GW installed Capacity (2010)

Mainly Germany, Spain, Netherlands, Denmark

Typical characteristics of windIntermittingPoor predictabilityPoor reliabilityNot controllable

Backup for base load and peaksPumped Storage

Wind power in the ENTSO-E Grid

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The future ENTSO-E grid

Largest synchronous grid worldwide !

ENTSO-EEuropean Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity

Supply of ≈ 800 mill. people with electrical energy (+100%)

≈ 625 GW installed capacity (+30%)

Improvement of grid stabilityPumped Storageis the stabilizing factor

Inter-Area Oscillations Pumped Storageis the stabilizing factor

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Rehabilitation

Old power plants – the hidden treasures

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Potential for Rehabilitation

≈ 30% of plants older than 40 years(263 GW of 887 GW)≈ 37% of plants in Europe≈ 43% of plants in North America

Value of rehabilitation (turbine + generator) estimated ≈ 10GW p.a.

Actual ageing process results in 16GW p.a. reaching 40 years age

The “10GW” rhythm is not sufficient to stop ageing of existing fleet !!

30 GW p.a. necessaryTo face the coming wave andTo stop the ageing process and to avoid dramatic incidents

Source: Alstom; Platts – UDI; Figures of 2009

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The Benefits of Rehab

95 %

90 %

85 %

80 %

75 %

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Turb

ine

Pea

k E

ffici

ency

Year of Equipment Supply

+ 5 %

Pelton

Pelton today

Francis

Kaplan

Pelto

n su

pplie

d in

195

0

Example: Hydraulic performance improvement potential

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The Benefits of Rehab

Plant PerformanceIncreased plant availability, reliability and safety Boosted power generation through optimal use of available water resources Increasing revenues from peak power generation and grid regulation Reduced service / maintenance costs / risk of standstills

CostsNo additional buildings & Quickly implementedNormally no environmental impact assessment requested / no or minor interference with natureExample: New 100 MW Runner (+5 % turbine output)

105 MW …Investment of < 1 MEURThis is equivalent to a SHP of 5 MW !!

For each additional 20GW upgraded per year and for each 5% of increase of performance, rehabilitation programs will create 1,000MW of renewable and predictable energy

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The Role of Europe’s Hydropower Industry

The Role of Europe’s Hydropower Industry

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Main E&M suppliers; World Market 2008 – 2010

+ other 52 European companies, acting as equipment suppliers including turbine, and parts of or complete W2W (“water to wire”) package !!

... civil works, penstocks, dam gates, trash racks, cranes not considered

E&M Suppliers 2008, 2009, 2010 (estimation)Total value 20.5 bill. €

Others

ANDRITZ HYDRO (European)

Voith Hydro (European)

Alstom(European)

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World Market E&M for Hydropower

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

World Market Hydro E&Min Mio. €

Effect of Nuclear policies after Fukushima incident ?

The global market has quickly recovered after the global financial crisis and has crossed the 7 bill. € mark in 2010!

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Largest Francis turbine

runner ever manufactured in

Europe

(Ravensburg / Germany)

Francis Runner Manufacturing in EuropeGuri / Simon Bolivar, Venezuela

The hydro power plant Simon Bolivar in Guri with 10,300 MW installed capacity is one of the worldwide largest power stations of this type.

Each of the 5 Francis turbines has a max. output of 770 MW and belongs to the most powerful turbines worldwide.

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Potential of Upgrade and ModernizationAmbuklao & Binga, Philippines

Client: SNAPB (SN ABOITIZ Power Benguet Inc.)Original Data: 3 x 25 MW; 360 rpmNew Data: 3 x 35 MW; 400 rpmFirst Commissioning: 1956

Refurbishment and Upgrade of 3 Units

Major features:Increase of turbine output by 40%Complete replanting of E & M equipmentImplementation time 26 months

CFD Optimization

done in Europe

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Europe‘s Technological LeadershipTap the untapped resources

Asia 7%

2%2%

26%

63%

Hydropower

Water supply

Flood control

Multi Purpose

Other

Irrigation

North and Central America11%

10%

13%

40%

15%

11%

Africa6%

20%

1%

21%2%

50%

40,000 existing dams worldwide

Huge potential for additional use for hydropower generation

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The renewable energy industry offers good job prospects

Source: European Commission

Investing in technology leadership…creates jobs!

Achieving the 2020 renewable energy target will deliver 2.8 million jobs in total.

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R&D and Europe’s future workplaces

R&D and Europe’s future workplaces

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Investment in energy R&D in the EU

Source: European Commission

Investment in energy R&D is mostly driven by the private sector, with public authorities at national and EU level also contributing significantly.

Share of energy investments in 2007

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Europe risks losing its technological edge

Source: European Commission

R&D expenditure in energy in 2007(EUR per inhabitant)

Europe spends on average € 20 on energy R&D per inhabitant, with the private sector contributing for a half (55%).

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Global spending on research and developmentin renewable energy by technology, 2009

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R&D and Europe’s future workplaces

ANDRITZ HYDRO Group in Figures≈ 6,500 employees worldwide, thereof ≈ 4,100 in EuropeSales 2010: 1,579 MEUR≈ 200 employees in R&D, thereof 90 % in EuropeR&D Expenses 2010: ≈ 23 MEUR

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Future Demand for R&D (and respective Support)New Design and Engineering Aspects

offshore PSP

Combination of pumped storage and solar thermal generation?

Generation in rivers?

Offshore pumped storage?

µ-HEPPs?

Use of nano-technology?

Standardization for hydro plants

…

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Energy and environmental policies require hydropower

Natural, local and renewable energy resource with only about 30% of the worldwide potential exploited

An essential part of the energy mix and enables the deployment of other renewable energy sources (back-up for wind and solar)

Pumped storage power plants provide peak power and serve for grid stability

Hydropower plants offer, compared to other generation technologiesLongest operational lifetime / highest efficiencyHigh Reliability and AvailabilityMinimal O&M costs per kWhSustainable and long-term investment with multiple, additional benefits, like water supply, flood control, irrigation and others

Dedicated hydro R&D / support funding is needed…not only other RES!

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Hydropower has a future

Just count on it – and support it !

Thank You !