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Karen BroylesJanuary 2016

Logical & Rational Method to Decision Making

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Steps of Decision Analysis Process

State the Decision-What is the purpose of the decision or choice you are about to make?

What do you want to achieve? What to you want to happen? What do you want to accomplish?

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The Format of the Statement

Choice word Result 1 or 2 key modifiers

My Statement was: Select a New 4-Door Car

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How you State the Choice Matters!

Select a Mode of TransportationSelect a Vehicle

Select a New VehicleSelect a Car

Select a New 4-Door CarSelect a New 4-Door Toyota Car

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Determine the Objectives of your Decision or Choice

What results do we want?What constraints do we have?What resources do we want to save?What is the metric we will use for the objective? How will you measure the objective? Note: An objective must have a measure or otherwise you cannot determine if the objective was met or not.

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My Objectives:

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Classify the Objectives

Of the objectives that you want to achieve, which of the objectives are deal breakers if not met i.e. “Must” objectivesIf the objective is not a “Must” objective then it is a “Want” objective.

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My Classifications

What we choose will? As demonstrated by:Objectives MeasuresTotal Cost <=32K $$ MustMPG >=25 MPG Must

Interior Space to fit 6'3" (Front leg room) inches MustMaximize MPG MPG Want

Minimize Cost $$ Want

Maximize interior space (Front shoulder room) inches Want

Maximize trunk space (Max. Load Capacity) Ibs. Want

Maximize comfort # of features Want

Maximize appeal color Want

Classify Objectives:

Wh

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Weigh the “Wants”

You must determine the relative weight of the remaining “Want” objectives to know what role the objective plays in the decision or choice to make.

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My Relative Weighting

What we choose will? As demonstrated by:Objectives MeasuresTotal Cost <=32K $$ MustMPG >=25 MPG Must

Interior Space to fit 6'3" (Front leg room) inches MustMaximize MPG MPG 10Minimize Cost $$ 10Maximize interior space (Front shoulder room) inches 1Maximize trunk space (Max. Load Capacity) Ibs. 3

Maximize comfort # of features 7Maximize appeal color 5

Classify ObjectivesFor the other objectives, what is the relative importance of each WANT?

Wh

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Brainstorm/List Alternatives for

Choice or Decision

List options that exists

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My Alternatives

1. Buick Regal2. Toyota Camry3. Buick LaCrosse4. Lexus

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Score the alternatives

Calculate how the alternatives measure and compare to each other.Select the top two to three alternatives

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Scoring of OptionsSelect a New 4- Door Car to buy.

What we choose will? As demonstrated by: Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3 Alternative 4

Objectives Measures Performance Buick Regal Score Performance Toyota Camry Score Performance Buick Lacrosse Score Performance Lexus Score

Total Cost <=32K $$ Must GO $27,617 0 GO $26,019 0 GO $30,170 0 NOGO $36,725 0MPG >=25 MPG Must GO 31 0 GO 33 0 GO 26 0 0

Interior Space to fit 6'3" (Front leg room) inches Must GO 43 0 GO 42 0 GO 44 0 0Maximize MPG MPG 10 8 26 80 10 27 100 8 26 80

Minimize Cost $$ 10 9 $27,055 90 10 $26,640 100 7 $30,170 70 0Maximize interior space (Front shoulder room) inches 1 8 56.5 8 10 57.5 10 9 57 9 0Maximize trunk space (Max. Load Capacity) Ibs. 3 9 905 27 9 905 27 10 925 30 0

Maximize comfort # of features 7 10

Auto seat adjustments, Cruise control, dual zone heat & AC 70 10

Auto seat adjustments, Cruise control, dual zone heat & AC 70 10

Auto seat adjustments, Cruise control, dual zone heat & AC 70 0

Maximize appeal color 5 10 Black 50 8 Blue 40 6 Red 30 0

0 0 0 0325 347 289 0

Classify Objectives:

Wh WWW W W WW

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Determine & Assess Risks of Options

Assess the probability of the risk occuring as well as the impact the risk will have if it does occur. Risks can be viewed as objectives that you don’t have measures for or can’t know the measure prior to making the decision or choice.

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Assess Risk

Toyota Camry Probability Seriousness Buick Regal Probability SeriousnessIf The random acceleration problem isn't really fixed L H If If GM goes into bankcruptcy L LThen I could be involved in a serious accident. Then repair parts will be difficult to acquire.

IfIf I buy this years model & next years model has more standard features. M L If

If I buy this years model & next years model has more standard features. M L

Then The value of my car will decline. Then The value of my car will decline.

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Make the Decision or Choice

Choose the best choice one that you can live with the risks on.

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Karen Broyles, MBA, CPIM, CSCPLean Leader, Continuous ImprovementbioMerieux, Inc.|St. Louis595 Anglum Road Hazelwood, MO 63042Tel: 314-731-8662 (Office)|314-281-0887 (Mobile)Email: karen.broyles@biomerieux.com

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Link to webinar recording:

http://apics.adobeconnect.com/p6coujnifbv/