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Assessing the Utility of Earth Observation Measurements
InformingEnergy Sector Applications
Richard Eckman
NASA Headquarters, Washington, [email protected]
ESIP Winter Meeting, January 5, 2011
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Outline
• Funding and Coordination activities: NASA Applied Sciences Program, GEO, and CEOS
• Connecting to Stakeholder Decision Tools:– Solar energy resource assessement, Space-Weather
impacts on energy grid Energy Load Forecasting, Building Monitoring
• Assessing Value: Methodologies, some results
• Conclusions
NASA Applied Sciences Program
• Applied Sciences Goal: The Applied Sciences program extends NASA Earth Science research and observations for practical use in environmentally-related decision and policy making.
• Serves society through:– Demonstrating, through partnerships with public organizations,
improvements to their ability to manage and plan natural resources and to make better environmental predictions, decisions, and policy.
• Serves the Earth science community by:– Demonstrating and communicating the utility and potential of Earth
science for societal benefit to a broad audience– Complementing R&A programs through applied research in strategic
areas– Providing the applications “viewpoint” to the research community (e.g.,
working with GEO and CEOS)– Forging partnerships with “nontraditional” organizations (e.g., NREL,
USDA, Battelle, NRCan, ESA, DLR, Universities, Private Sector)
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2000-2011 Planning: Highlights
• Developing applications for monitoring renewable energy sources
• Improving forecasting of fluctuationsand intermittency
• Promoting collaboration among users and providers
www.earthobservations.org
Renewable Energy – Managing Uncertainty
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CEOS
• Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) – 28 Member and 20 Associate agencies and
organizations (e.g., DLR, ESA, JAXA, NASA, …)
– Pursuing near-term space-based actions that directly support GEO tasks
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The NASA POWER Project
POWER = Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource
Objective: Improve the public and private capability for integrating environmental data from NASA’s satellite-based analysis and modeling research into sound management of energy production and energy efficiency systems.
Goals:
– Establish partnerships to facilitate the integration and adaptation of NASA satellite analysis and modeling data into electric power industry Decision Support System’s (DSS) and databases.
– Target datasets for Electric Power, Renewable Energy, Energy-Efficient Building Design, and Biomass Crop Development Industries
– Transition operational capabilities to government and/or private sector entities.
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Relevant NASA Science Data Sets
Meteorological Information from GMAO
Relevant NASA Science Data Sets
Global Monthly Irradiance for 2000 (from GEWEX SRB)
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Relevant NASA Science Data Sets
FLASHFlux: Global TOA and Surface Fluxes within 1 week of observation from Terra and Aqua
Daily Average Solar Irradiance ( Wm-2)
FLASHFlux (CERES/MODIS, GMAO)
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NASA SSE: Updated Release v6.0
• Surface meteorology and Solar Energy database (SSE)
• 23 years of data
• Updated solar algorithm
• Improved validation
• Increased accessibility including regions/time series
• Direct connection to 3 renewable energy DSS tools
eosweb.larc.nasa.gov/sse
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Current Climate and Energy Projects• Building Climate Zone data sets (DOE, ASHRAE)
– ROSES09 Feasibility: 1 year– Purpose: Demonstrate usefulness of developing building climate zone
maps in regional areas from downscaled assimilation and satellite products
• Advanced Long-term Solar Mapping (NREL, NCDC, SUNY)– ROSES09 DECISION: 4 year (starting FY10)– Purpose: Develop and deliver methodology to NREL for production of
solar resource maps from NASA Science to NCDC operations • Near-Real Time Products for Energy/Ag Applications
– Purpose: Enhance/Maintain data product from from CERES FLASHFlux to web sites for energy and agriculture applications
• Solar Resource Knowledge Management (IEA, Task 36)– Purpose: Benchmark and determine best practices for validation of
satellite-based solar resource, improve dissemination of data sets through web based tools, evaluate long-term variability and forecasts
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Current Data Product Data Flow
ISCCPGEOS-4
NCAR MATCHTOMS/TOVS
GPCP
GEWEX SRB
POWER
Applied SciencesScience Inputs
24 YearTimeSeries
SSE Rel. 6.0
(eosweb.larc.nasa.gov/sse)
FLASH-Flux
Agricultural Crop Projections
Energy Resource and Load
CERESMODISGEOS-5
NCAR MATCHSMOBA (OMI)TRMM/GPCP
POWER
Within 1 WeekOf Real-Time
(power.larc.nasa.gov)
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• Satellite: GOES, POES, TRMM, Terra, Aqua, TOMS, SORCE, Aura, CALIPSO, CloudSat, Glory, GPM, NPP
• Land: Aeronet, BSRN, ARM, SURFRAD
EARTH SYSTEM MODELS
EARTH OBSERVATIONS
*Future Mission
• Earth System & Climate Change: GMAO Analysis (GEOS v4.0, v5.1; MERRA)
• Atmospheric Analysis Projects: ISCCP, SRB, FLASHFlux (CERES, MODIS), GPCP
POWER: Hub for Applications
Selected Proposals• Crop-Yield Modeling (USDA, U.Neb., U. Ga)• SWERA 2 (USGS, NREL)• Energy Load Forecasting
(Battelle, MSFC)
NASA/POWER Prototype Data Set Generation
Data
Data
Data
Energy Forecasting• MiniCAM (PNNL)• Solar Forecasting
(SUNY, NREL)
Renewable Energy & Energy Efficiency
• RETScreen (NRCan)• HOMER (NREL)• IEA Task (NREL) • WMO Buildings• ASHRAE
Web Prototypes • SSE• Sustainable Buildings• Agroclimatology
POWER Sustains Growth of SSE Prototype and Web Interface
Surface meteorology and Solar Energy (SSE) Web Interface Usage
> 4.25 million data requests (18.5 miltotal hits) andsince 1997 inception
Now >75,000+
users,~2.5X
increase since 2007,>1900 new users per month in
2010,152
Countries
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POWER Sustains Growth of SSE Prototype and Web Interface
Unique SSE users
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5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Fiscal year
Use
rs
• Web site hosted by ASDC (no charge)
• Site responsible for 88% of all data requests
• Now over 30,000 unique users
• 116 different countries
• Business (72%), University (12%), Government/Military (7%), Private Citizens (7%), Organization (2%)
Sustained growth due to improved data sets from science research and new partnerships
• Release 6: replaced solar data and Met data due to upgrades from SRB and GMAO science; now 22 years
Estimating Accomplishment Value• Usage Statistics: Measure of relevance and value
– Overall usage and by domain including international (i.e., .com, .org, .gov, .mil; Au – Australia)
– Statistical information on data requests: location, parameters– New user information: indicates growth– User question & comments; web links to sites
• Direct Decision Support Usage: Specific Value– Ex: RETScreen (over 255,000 users in36 languages, est. $5B in
cost savings), HOMER, Ventyx Velocity Suite (Electric Utilities)
• Usage by Government reports: Policy Value– Ex: Dept. of Interior, PNNL Climate Change assessments
• Industry Standards: Industry wide influence– Ex: IEA, ASHRAE
• Specific Case Studies: Measureable impacts by case
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Connecting to Decision Tools and End Users
Direct Linkage to Renewable Energy Decision Support
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power.larc.nasa.gov
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• Natural Resources Canada-funded program
NRCan RETScreen
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• Natural Resources Canada-funded program
• RETScreen goals:
– Build the capacity of planners, decision-makers and industry to implement renewable energy, cogeneration and energy efficiency projects
– Reduce the cost of clean energy pre-feasibility studies
• Partnering with NASA since 2000
www.retscreen.net
RETScreen-NASA Partnership
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Projects Facilitated by RETScreen
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RETScreen’s Reliance on NASA Data • Direct query
of NASA SSE data
• >276,000 users in 222 countries
• 1000 new users every week
• Release 4: in 26 languages
NASA data In Situ data
RETScreen Climate Database
Points represent world’s cities (~10,000). Red have in situ observations. Blue defer to NASA LaRC data sets (~5,000). Data
for locations between points are found through a direct link to SSE.
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NASA/HOMER (NREL) Partnership• NREL HOMER Micropower Optimization Model
– HOMER is a computer model that simplifies the task of evaluating design options for both off-grid and grid-connected power systems for remote, stand-alone, and distributed generation (DG) applications.
– Highlighted in CCSP SAP 5.1 as a case study in decision support using Earth observations
– NASA and other Earth observation data sources critical to its success (e.g., solar from LaRC; AOD from GSFC GOCART model, MODIS, MISR, TOMS; Digital land cover from NASA & USGS)
– Used extensively around the world for determining the optimal mix of power technologies for meeting specified load conditions at specified locations
– HOMER automatically accesses and inputs the NASA SSE data for the specific location that the model is analyzing.
– Collaboration with NASA ROSES-funded SWERA II task at USGS EROS data center.
www.nrel.gov/homer
HOMER Solar Resource
• User can plot results in a number of ways
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Space Weather Impacts on Power Grid
March 1989 X-class flare led
to GIC-induced 10-hour blackout
throughout Quebec
Solar Shield Project: conducted by NASA in collaboration with EPRI
http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/Solar_Shield
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Space Weather Impacts on Power Grid
• Solar Storm of 1859: Largest recorded geomagnetic storm in history. At the time, telegraphy was only ~15 years old. Networks in Europe and North America failed.
• A similarly sized storm occurring today could be devastating to space-based assets, communications (Internet), and the power grid.
• Value of Earth observations to improve forecasting of events could be huge.
NASA Products to Enhance Energy Utility Load Forecasting
• Funded by the NASA Applied Sciences Program
•Project Goal: develop applications of NASA products to meet the needs of energy companies for both short-term and long-term planning
•Partners: Battelle, Ventyx, NASA Langley Research Center, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center
Project Motivation
• Current daily load forecasts have mean absolute percent error (MAPE) values of 5%-7% for natural gas companies, and 1%-3% for electric companies
• Uncertainty in forecasts has the potential to waste money and resources
• Refinement to weather inputs could lead to substantial cost savings and more efficient use of resources
Cost Savings: Electric
• With an estimated 10% reduction in error in 3-hour temperature forecasts, within-day models, and conservative assumptions:
– U.S. electric utilities (total production in 2000 of 3,413,000,000 MWH) would save:- $479 Million/year (assumes spot price in 2002 dollars of $41.3 / MWH)
- Based on reduction of short-term power production and purchase- 3-hour forecast only – larger improvements possible with better 24-
hour forecast- Temperature accuracy – wind speed, precipitation not included
Source: http://www.goes-r.gov/downloads/GOES-R%20Sounder%20and%20Imager%20Cost%20Benefit%20Analysis%20(CBA)/GOES-R_CBA_Final_Jan_9_2003.pdf
Example of a Cost Benefit Analysis performed for use of a satellite weather product in electric forecasting
Project StepsPhase 1: Historical Testing – compare load forecast results with and
without NASA satellite weather data.
Phase 2: Operational Testing - conduct real-time testing, fine tune and document benefits.
Phase 3: Nationwide Transition - transition documented improvements for sustained use of NASA resources by energy utilities nationwide, in a variety of load forecasting tools.
Climate Change Investigation: Assess NASA climate data, model products, and projections to identify those of potential value to utilities for long-term (seasonal to 40 years) planning.
For example, climate change impacts on:
– Infrastructure
– Load
– Integration of renewable energy such as wind
– Resource availability (e.g., water).
Weather Data in Energy Load Models
Preliminary study showed that the use of more data improves load forecasts
Problem – surface reporting stations and forecast sites are limited• few and usually far apart• not in representative areas because of terrain, or influenced by local effects
Weather data needs to be: • Available in real-time (observations)• Forecast at 1-3 hour intervals • Forecast 1-10 days in future• Parameters include Temperature (also
daily max / min), Relative Humidity, Wind (speed/direction), Precipitation, Cloud cover, Solar energy, etc.
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Janu
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Febru
ary
Mar
chApr
ilM
ayJu
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Augus
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mbe
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Octob
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Lo
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Fo
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AP
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Ground-Based DataAlone
Addition of Satellite-Based Data
Data sets spanning January 1983 to present Long-term satellite-based analysis of clouds, solar energy, and
temperatures, 1ox1o resolution Satellite/ground-based precipitation products from the Global
Precipitation Climatology Project ,1ox1o resolution Surface meteorological observations remapped for 1ox1o resolution
NASA Historical Data Sets
Average Daily Solar Radiation, January 2000
NASA Langley Surface Meteorology and Solar Energy (SSE), http://eosweb.larc.nasa.gov/sse/
• High resolution data from NASA satellites is used to diagnose current weather and improve forecasts• Forecasts are 4 km x 4 km resolution, Hourly
• New NASA model inputs are improving short-term forecasts:• High resolution maps of sea surface temperature
• Assimilation of temperature and moisture profiles
NASA High-Resolution Forecasts
NASA Marshall Short-term prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT)
High resolution model data provides detailed temperature information over
regions of interest
• National Fuel, Gas Utility, Buffalo, NY
New York Pennslyvania0123456789
Historical Testing ResultsTraining Dates: 1/1/2006 -
07/31/2008
MAPE Without NASA
MAPE With NASA
Mea
n A
bso
lute
Per
cen
t E
rro
r (M
AP
E)
Historical Testing CompletedBattelle
The Business of Innovation
Historical Testing Details:National Fuel
• Monthly MAPE results show improvements across the entire year with NASA data– Peak demand months reduced - up to 4.3 percentage pts.– Significant shoulder month improvements – up to 3.7 percentage pts.
JAN FEB MARAPRMAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC0
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NY - STANDARD
NY - NASA DATA
MA
PE
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC0
2
4
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10
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PA - STANDARDPA - NASA DATA
MA
PE
AVG = 8.5AVG = 5.4
AVG = 8.3AVG = 6.4
Historical Testing Completed
• Arkansas Electric Cooperative, Electric Utility
SWEPCO SPA AP&L02468
1012
Historical Testing ResultsTraining Dates: 3/9/2009 -
2/3/2010MAPE Without NASA
MAPE With NASA
Mea
n A
bso
lute
Per
cen
t E
rro
r (M
AP
E)
Operational Testing Just Started
• 3 out of 4 participating utilities (not Arkansas Electric yet)• Have not encountered peak load seasons (summer and winter)
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10.0012.0014.0016.0018.0020.00
Pennsylvania Service Area – (May-June 2010)
MAPE - CurrentMAPE With NASA Forecast
Days Ahead Forecast
MA
PE
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PNNL Integrated Assessment Model Initialization with NASA Data
PNNL/Joint Global Change Research Center uses NASA POWER data sets for initiation of MiniCAM 50-year energy
market forecasts for policy planning
Direct Solar Irradiance for areas with 50 or less no-sun days per year
Forested and Agricultural Areas Excluded
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PNNL’s Assessment Results
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Global Building Design Climate Zones(with ASHRAE and DOE)
Location SpecificDaily/Monthly Averaged ClimateInformation
Location Specific Traditional Architectural Comfort Zone
Design Charts (with AIA)
Long-term Climate Information For Building Design
30 Years Needed!
POWER for High Resolution Building Climate Zone Maps
• Long-term climate zone maps determine building codes and guidelines for buildings by US county
• Current maps statistics• Interpolated surface
Measurements of– Monthly/annual T– Annual HDD/CDD– Annual precipitation
• Investigating use
reanalysis for
these maps
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POWER for High Resolution Building Climate Zone Maps
• MERRA Climate zones using ASHRAE/DOE definitions at 1/2 x 2/3 degree resolution
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Building Monitoring and Targeting
• Monitoring and Targeting: gaining and maintaining control over energy consumption through measurement and analysis followed by well-directed actions.– Purpose: energy cost savings for budgeting, evaluation of
energy efficiency upgrades, product/service costing
• NRCAN CETR RETScreen leading effort for newly formed building monitoring and targeting program– Need global near-real time (within 1 month) solar and
meteorological (I.e. heating degree day) data sets– FLASHFlux with operational GMAO assimilation perfectly suited
by providing daily and monthly estimates of parameters– Testing on NASA Langley Research Center buildings
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Benchmaking Solar ForecastsVital for assessing potential large scale PV and/or
CSP production when integrating into into traditional power grid
Initial Conditions 1230Z 8/5/07
GMAO Solar Irradiance Forecast
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1 2 3 4 5 nextday
two-day
Persitence period (hours unless noted)
RE
LA
TIV
E R
MS
E (
%)
NDFDasrc same dayNDFDasrc next dayNDFDasrc tw o dayerror satelliteerror persitenceECMWF-1-same dayECMWF-2-same dayECMWF-1-next dayECMWF-2-next dayECMWF-1-tw o dayECMWF-2-tw o-dayWRF-GFS-same dayWRF-GFS-next dayWRF-GFS-tw o-day
GOODWIN CREEK
Draft courtesy Perez, SUNY
Multi-Model Solar Irradiance Comparison
6 Hr Forecast Condition 12Z 8/5/07
30 Hr Forecast Condition 12Z 8/6/07
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Next Steps
• Advanced Long-term Solar Mapping (NREL)– Earth System Science models (ESSM): GMAO MERRA, GOCART– Satellite-based: ISCCP B1U (w/ 8km pixels), TOVS-TOMS
• Solar Energy Forecasting (NREL, SUNY)– Earth System Science models (ESSM): GMAO forecasts– Satellite-based: FLASHFlux (for validation)
• Building Targeting and Monitoring (NRCan) – ESSM: GMAO operational assimilation– Satellite-based: FLASHFlux
• Building data sets for design (DOE, ASHRAE)– ESSM: GMAO GEOS-4, MERRA, GOCART– Satellite-based: GEWEX SRB
• Load Forecasting (Battelle, Ventyx)– ESSM: GMAO operational assimilation, forecasts; SPORT
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Conclusions
• NASA Energy Management applications have yielded significant results in national and international energy programs through transfer of science results to improve decision making
• Successes involve supporting renewable energy and energy efficient technology optimization
• Model of success has been long-term partnerships featuring the development and dissemination of specifically tailored data sets
• Data sets made available through web-based interfaces provide opportunities for new projects and new partnerships worldwide
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Conclusions (cont’d.)
• Assessing the value of information requires different methodologies based on the project under consideration.
• Some projects have clearer metrics to assess success
• A Possible Next Step: Socio-Economic Benefit Survey– Purpose: Measure by sector usage, user survey analysis, case
studies the current and future impact of providing global solar and meteorological data sets.
• More work required!Thanks to Paul Stackhouse, Jim Hoell, and Erica Zell for the use of some slides.
Backup Slides
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Hosted by École des Mines de Paris
GEOSS: First Energy Demonstration
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SWERA 2: Renewable Resources for Developing Nations
• USGS-led ROSES Proposal
• Data archive,user interfaceat UNEP GRiD facility
• NASA role: supply global data parameters
www.swera.net
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CEOS Member Agencies Contribute ToInternational Energy Agency Task
• International collaboration representing 8 nations; >15 organizations
• 5-Year Task led by NREL
• NASA contributing expertise on solar resource estimation and validation, user and interface information, data sets and research (results from GEWEX SRB and GEWEX Radiative Flux Assessment)
