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ExerciseExercise
• Turn to the person sitting next to you• Decide who will present and who will
question• Presenter: present the indicator to the
person sitting next to you • Questioner: ask questions to clarify
anything that is unclear• Time: 45 seconds
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Total energy intensity in the EU-25 during 1990-2004,Nb. Energy intensity is a measure of total energy consumption in relation to economic activity
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Important not to have Important not to have unrealistic expectations of what unrealistic expectations of what indicators can do…indicators can do…
Think back to DAS presentation yesterday…Think back to DAS presentation yesterday…
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River Thames 2007
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Oil spill from tanker Prestige off Spanish coast(ESA Envisat satellite)
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Global NO2 pollution map for 2006 (ESA Envisat)
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Outline Outline
1. (Exercise)2. Knowledge for action3. Uncertainty
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How: Building the scene
Polity
Take actions
Explore responses
Create knowledge
Framework
Signals and facts
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Why and whom: developing processes, working with the actors
Steps
Stages
Political understanding
Scientific analysis
Action identification
Measure effectiveness
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Tools
When and where: The changing scene before/after, above/below...
Past implementation
National condition
Regional future options
Actual evaluation
Instruments
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Managing the scene: Uncertainty and complexity
Signals in
Actual actions out
Quantitative data in
Knowledge out
Future actions out
Knowledge out
Qualitative data in
Signals in
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Knowledge for action
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Evidence based policy: Evidence based policy: linking uncertainty and actionlinking uncertainty and action
Willingness to act is a political quantity – we cannot really influence it, but we can take advantage of it and play to it…
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Purpose of uncertainty Purpose of uncertainty assessment for indicatorsassessment for indicators
• Minimise risk of misleading policy makers
1) Uncertainty in datasets: e.g. Inexactness or non-comparability in underlying data from monitoring, collection etc.
2) Uncertainty in methodology: e.g. Systematic errors arising during manipulation of data, use of unreliable or subjective methods for dealing with missing data, lack of scientific /societal robustness or legitimacy in the choices made in the methods or indicators
3) Uncertainty in rationale: e.g. perceptions of the problem, causes and solutions. This includes issues to do with ignorance of other possible explanatory variables or lack of scientific /societal robustness or legitimacy in the choices made in framing of the problem or the assessments.
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Integral to e- indicator management Integral to e- indicator management system: system: CSI, TERM, EERM, Irena; CCm, ?CCA, AQ,CSI, TERM, EERM, Irena; CCm, ?CCA, AQ,we struggle with: we struggle with: water, soil, biodiversity, wastewater, soil, biodiversity, waste
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Indicators
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Knowledge for action
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Assessments for action…Assessments for action…
….Means understanding the policy cycle
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Most information
Most information
EEA core set of indicators
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Assessments for knowledge…Assessments for knowledge…
….Means understanding the knowledge we have
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Build a structure or pattern from diverse elements. Put parts together to form a whole, with emphasis on creating a new meaning or structure.
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Make judgements about the value of ideas or materials.
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Data description.
Separate material or concepts into component parts so that its organizational structure may be understood. Distinguish between facts and inference.
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Apply concept - conceptualise problem or issue..
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Understand the meaning, translation, interpolation and interpretation of the problem. Redefine the problem.
Blooms typology of knowledge http://ia.ew.eea.europa.eu/do_it_yourself/knowledge_base/Steps
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Knowledge for actionKnowledge for action
1st aim: To further action2nd aim: To further understanding of the
system- is the policy working?
See policy as test of hypothesis of the mechanism…
Closing the loop:- create real life experiments!And engage back with science…
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AssessmentsAssessments
Acuity
The clarity or clearness
To further action
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……What policy makers need to know What policy makers need to know vs. what it would be nice if they vs. what it would be nice if they knew….knew….
What ministers like is Alliteration! E.g. 4Fs
What civil servants like…….“To reduce the political risk of doing the right
thing”
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Future actionsFuture actions
• Uncertainty w/s for thematics: very practical approach
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Thank you!Thank you!
Any Questions?Any Questions?
