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Euromoney Country RiskQ2 2018 RESULTS
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. Introduction (Scoring)2. Q/Q update3. Y/Y update4. Contacts
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SCORING
Euromoney Country Risk is a platform designed to capture and aggregate the views of country risk experts. It comprises real-time country risk scores for over 180 markets in 15 categories that relate to economic, structural and political riskThere are over 400 experts (primarily economists) who are surveyed quarterlyHistorical data sets are available:Annual data back to 1993 and quarterly data back to 2011
Our subscriber base is primarily corporate treasurers, but also includes SWFs, asset managers, banks (FX, Risk, Sovereign debt issuance)
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Region Score Rank
Up Down Up Down
Africa 8 8 9 5
Americas 11 8 5 3
Asia 16 5 7 2
Australasia 1 3 1 1
Caribbean 5 2 3 3
Central & Eastern Europe 13 8 2 4
Middle East 3 5 0 3
Western Europe 10 5 2 0
Total 67 44 29 21
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GLOBAL MOVEMENTS: Q1 - Q2 2018
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GLOBAL MOVEMENTS –TOP/BOTTOM 5
Country 2018 Q2 Score Q/Q Change
Top 5
Luxembourg 85.45 0.73
Cyprus 59.72 0.27
Dem. Republic of Congo 31.82 0.26
Vietnam 41.76 0.21
Columbia 57.71 0.21
Bottom 5
Malaysia 59.04 -0.14
Maldives 22.75 -0.23
Oman 55.79 -0.23
New Zealand 81.23 -0.25
Sudan 23.09 -0.25
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Q1-Q2 2018 - AFRICA7
0.26 0.26
0.060.05 0.05
-0.07-0.11
-0.25
-0.31-0.33
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Dem. Rep.Of theCongo
Egypt South Africa Zimbabwe Ghana Tunisia Senegal Sudan Gabon Ethiopia
Q/Q
CH
AN
GE
2018
Q2
SCO
RE
Top 5 - Africa
2018 Q2 Score Score Q/Q
Bottom 5 - Africa
Q1-Q2 2018 - AMERICAS8
Bottom 5 - Americas
1.03
0.330.21 0.21
0.17
-0.08 -0.11 -0.12
-0.34-0.42
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Honduras Costa Rica Colombia Panama Ecuador UnitedStates
Nicaragua Guyana Mexico Canada
Q/Q
CH
AN
GE
2018
Q2
SCO
RE
Top 5 - Americas
2018 Q2 Score Score Q/Q
Q1-Q2 2018 - ASIA9
Bottom 5 - Asia
0.51
0.310.27 0.24 0.21
-0.09-0.13 -0.14
-0.23
-0.69
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Philippines Uzbekistan Mauritius Indonesia Vietnam China Sri Lanka Malaysia Maldives Laos
Q/Q
CH
AN
GE
2018
Q2
SCO
RE
Top 5 - Asia
2018 Q2 Score Score Q/Q
Q1-Q2 2018 - AUSTRALASIA10
Bottom 5 - Australasia
0.020 0 0 0 0 0
-0.07
-0.25
-0.58
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Australia MarshallIslands
Micronesia(Fed.
States)
NewCaledonia
Samoa Tonga Vanuatu Fiji NewZealand
Papua NewGuinea
Q/Q
CH
AN
GE
2018
Q2
SCO
RE
Top 5 - Australasia
2018 Q2 Score Score Q/Q
Q1-Q2 2018 - CARIBBEAN11
Bottom 5 - Caribbean
0.4 0.4
0.12 0.12 0.08
0 0 0-0.05
-0.5
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
St Vincent &Grenadines
Grenada St Lucia Bermuda Trinidad &Tobago
Haiti Bahamas Jamaica Cuba Barbados
Q/Q
CH
AN
GE
2018
Q2
SCO
RE
Top 5 - Caribbean
2018 Q2 Score Score Q/Q
Q1-Q2 2018 - CEE12
Bottom 5 - CEE
0.46
0.27
0.10.07 0.06
-0.02 -0.02-0.06
-0.13
-0.24-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Q/Q
CH
AN
GE
2018
Q2
SCO
RE
Top 5 - CEE
2018 Q2 Score Score Q/Q
Q1-Q2 2018 – MIDDLE EAST13
Bottom 5 – Middle East
0.03 0.030.02
0 0-0.01 -0.01
-0.02
-0.17
-0.23
-0.25
-0.2
-0.15
-0.1
-0.05
0
0.05
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Kuwait SaudiArabia
Israel Iran Iraq Bahrain Qatar Jordan Lebanon Oman
Q/Q
CH
AN
GE
2018
Q2
SCO
RE
Top 5 - Middle East
2018 Q2 Score Score Q/Q
Q1-Q2 2018 – WESTERN EUROPE14
Bottom 5 – Western Europe
0.73
0.36
0.170.15
0.06-0.01 -0.03 -0.06 -0.06
-0.09
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Luxembourg Greece Spain France Norway Austria Switzerland Sweden Italy Germany
Q/Q
CH
AN
GE
2018
Q2
SCO
RE
Top 5 - Western Europe
2018 Q2 Score Score Q/Q
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Region Score Rank
Up Down Up Down
Africa 32 18 19 28
Americas 15 7 10 11
Asia 21 11 12 14
Australasia 7 4 5 5
Caribbean 8 5 2 11
Central & Eastern Europe 22 3 17 7
Middle East 5 8 4 7
Western Europe 16 2 10 3
Total 126 58 79 86
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GLOBAL MOVEMENTS: Q2 2018-2017
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GLOBAL MOVEMENTS – TOP/BOTTOM 5Country 2018 Q2 Score Y/Y Change
Top 5
Slovenia 67.95 5.6
Egypt 37.64 4.96
Belarus 30.22 4.80
Ghana 42.36 4.79
Angola 36.08 4.68
Bottom 5
Panama 67.40 -2.63
Qatar 51.09 -2.83
Macau 67.67 -4.00
Bermuda 52.87 -4.19
Brunei 47.01 -7.36
Q2 2017-Q2 2018 – AFRICA18
Bottom 5 – Africa
4.96 4.794.68 4.48
3.89
-1.3-1.42
-1.68 -1.95-2.5
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Egypt Ghana Angola Côte d‘Ivoire
Nigeria Sierra Leone Swaziland Algeria Gabon South Africa
Y/Y
CH
AN
GE
2018
Q2
SCO
RE
Top 5 - Africa
2018 Q2 Score Score Y/Y
Q2 2017-Q2 2018 – AMERICAS19
Bottom 5 – Americas
3.67 3.543.3 3.03
2.8
-0.13-0.42
-0.6 -0.66
-2.63-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Suriname Bolivia Belize Argentina Chile Colombia Peru Guyana UnitedStates
Panama
Y/Y
cha
nge
2018
Q2
Scor
e
Top 5 - Americas
2018 Q2 Score Score Y/Y
Q2 2017-Q2 2018 – ASIA20
1.28 1.22 1.1 1.06 0.92
-1.88-2.28 -2.5
-4
-7.36-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Pakistan China Bhutan Afghanistan Sri Lanka Taiwan Philippines Korea South Macau Brunei
Y/Y
cha
nge
2018
Q2
Scor
e
Top 5 - Asia
2018 Q2 Score Score Y/Y
Bottom 5 – Asia
Q2 2017-Q2 2018 – AUSTRALASIA21
2.151.99
1.81
1.491.31
0.29
-0.01-0.27 -0.39
-1.25-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
MarshallIslands
Papua NewGuinea
Tonga Australia Micronesia(Fed.
States)
Fiji Samoa SolomonIslands
Vanuatu NewZealand
Y/Y
cha
nge
2018
Q2
Scor
e
Top 5 - Australasia
2018 Q2 Score Score Y/Y
Bottom 5 – Australasia
Q2 2017-Q2 2018 – CARIBBEAN22
Bottom 5 –Caribbean
1.250.75
0.68 0.65 0.6-0.14 -0.28
-0.58
-2.38
-4.19
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Antigua &Barbuda
Jamaica Grenada St Lucia Dominica Barbados Bahamas Cuba Trinidad &Tobago
Bermuda
Y/Y
cha
nge
2018
Q2
Scor
e
Top 5 - Caribbean
2018 Q2 Score Score Y/Y
Q2 2017-Q2 2018 – CEE23
Bottom 5 –CEE5.6
4.84.51
3.82 3.56
0.18 0.13 -0.27
-1.08
-2.17-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Y/Y
cha
nge
2018
Q2
Scor
e
Top 5 - CEE
2018 Q2 Score Score Y/Y
Q2 2017-Q2 2018 – MIDDLE EAST24
Bottom 5 –Middle East
4.664.25
2.942.27
0.01
-1.3-1.58
-2.49 -2.61-2.83
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Yemen Lebanon Iraq Jordan Syria Oman Iran Bahrain United ArabEmirates
Qatar
Y/Y
cha
nge
2018
Q2
Scor
e
Top 5 - Middle East
2018 Q2 Score Score Y/Y
Q2 2017-Q2 2018 – WESTERN EUROPE25
4.25 4.18
3.64
2.32 2.14
0.08 0.03 0-0.11 -0.24
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Greece Portugal Italy Spain Sweden Germany Switzerland Iceland Norway Belgium
Y/Y
cha
nge
2018
Q2
Scor
e
Top 5 - Western Europe
2018 Q2 Score Score Y/Y
Bottom 5 –Western Europe
Map out the direction of travel for regional and country risk, using ECR’s country risk timeline and score movement information.
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CONTACTSAmelia LoweProgramme ManagerEuromoney Country RiskTel: 0207 779 [email protected]
Alex Vaughan-Fowler
Associate Publisher
Euromoney Data
Tel: 0207 779 7298
