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1
Faith in Place
A Challenge to A Challenge to FaithFaith
The Energy Depletion The Energy Depletion RealityReality
Illinois Interfaith Power & Light
2
Oil & Natural Gas Supply
When will they peak?
Where are reserves located?
How does it affect us?
What are our options?
3
Consuming 125 Million Years of Oil
Bump in the line above represents
the 100 years when most of the world’s oil was consumed
Sources: Hubbert’s Peak, The Impending World Oil Shortage, Kenneth Deffeyes, Princeton University Press, 2001, p. 6. And US DOE Energy Information Agency http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/contents.html
4
Consuming 125 Million Years of Oil
Extend the line 5 miles to the left for the time it took to create the oil
125 million years
At 2001 Global Consumption RateOil consumed each day took 4800 years to create
Sources: Hubbert’s Peak, The Impending World Oil Shortage, Kenneth Deffeyes, Princeton University Press, 2001, p. 6. And US DOE Energy Information Agency http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/contents.html
5
Our Current Lifestyles
World Energy Usage
Critically dependent on oil & natural gas
Food ProductionHome HeatingTransportation
Source: International Energy Agency, Key World Energy Statistics 2003 (1 Mtoe = 11,630 GWh)
6
Early 1960s
Oil discoveries peaked
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
80
60
40
20
Bil
lion
s of
Oil
-Eq
uiv
alen
t B
arre
ls
0
Source: Harry Longwell, Exxon Mobile, “The future of the oil and gas industry: past approaches, new challenges,” World Energy 5(3), 2002
7
The North Sea’s Oil Depletion
Zittel, W, 2001 "Analysis of the UK oil production". L-B-SystemTechnik www.energiekrise.de/e/articles/Analysis_of_UK_oil_production.pdf
8
Oil Production Peaking Soon
Source: Bruce Robinson, Australia’s Oil Vulnerability, citing: ASPO Statistical Review of Oil and Gas, Proceedings of the 1st International Workshop on Oil Depletion, Uppsala, Sweeden, 23-25 May, 2002. Edited by K. Aleklett and C. Campbell, www.isv.uu.se/iwood2002, See Also Campbell & Laherrere, “The End of Cheap Oil,” Scientific American, March 1998, pp. 78-83.
9
1979 – Per Capita Global Oil Production Peaked
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Pro
du
ctio
n P
er C
apit
a (B
/c/y
r)
6.0
3.0
0.0
(Years)
Peak 1979
Source: World Energy Production, Population Growth, And the Road to the Olduvai Gorge, Richard C. Duncan, As published in Population and Environment, May-June 2001, v. 22, n. 5; See also: Pardee Keynote Symposia, Geological Society of America, Summit 2000 in Reno, Nevada on November 13, 2000
10
Evolution: Oil Reserves by Region
Middle East Includes: Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait Source: BP (British Petroleum) statistical review of world energy 2003 -http://www.bp.com/centres/energy/downloads/index.asp
1982 Proven Reserves 2002 Proven ReservesAfrica
9%Asia/Pacific 6%
N. America14%
S. & Cent. America 4%
MiddleEast54%
Europe &Eurasia 13%
Africa 7%
Asia/Pacific 4%
N. America
5%
S. & Cent. America 9%
MiddleEast66%
Europe &Eurasia 9%
11
If all the people in the world …
Enjoyed a standard of living and energy consumption rates similar to that of the of average American, AND …
The world’s population continued to grow at a rate of 1.5% …
The world’s fossil fuel reserves
would last about 15 years
12
How long can US oil consumption increase?
Data Source: US DOE Energy Information Agency (EIA) 2003 (Solid lines = estimates. World Production fit based on 2 trillion barrels ultimately recoverable. )
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
1950 2000 2050 2100
(Year)
(Bill
ion
Bar
rel /
Yea
r)
US Consumption
US Production
2040 US Consuming entire World Output
World Production
13
The problem we are facing is …
We must reduce our demand for nonrenewable
gas and oil
until it reaches
ZERO.
14
The problem we are facing is …
• The economy of consumption is not the economy that any of our faiths proclaim
• The change that is required is on a scale that can only be described as religious
15
How does it affect us?
Food
Shelter
Transportation
Consumer Goods
16
Food
Soil erosion on cropland5 tons/year/acre in U.S.
12 tons/year/acre Worldwide.
3000 years to recover 6 inches of topsoilLand degradation alone expected to reduce food production 15% - 30% by 2020We are compensating by using oil and gasWhen oil and gas are gone - how to grow food?
We are using fossil fuel to compensate for worldwide soil loss and degradation
Source: David Pimentel et. Al., “Will limits of the Earth’s resources control human numbers?” Cornell University, 1999.
17
U.S. Food Production Efficiency
Source: Energy Use in the US Food System, John Steinhart and Carol Steinhart, Science, 1974, pp. 307-316
Cal
ori
es o
f E
ner
gy
Inp
ut
for
1 C
alo
rie
of
Fo
od
Ou
tpu
t
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
20
10
5.0
2.0
1.0
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.05
0.02
18
Shelter in the U.S.
Median size of a new home built in the U.S.
1949: 1,100 sq. ft. 1970: 1,385 sq. ft 1996: 1,950 sq. ft.
Household size in the U.S.
1970: 3.14 persons per household1995: 2.65 persons per household
Source: All Consuming Passion, Third Edition, 1998, New Road Map Foundation and Northwest Environment Watch.
19
Transportation: 27% U.S. Energy
U.S. Consumption in 1997 by Sector
Transportation 25.04 quads
27%
Industrial 35.43 quads
38%
Residential & Commercial
33.74 quads
36%
TOTAL 94.21 quads
EIA Annual Energy Review 1998 (published January 2000)
Source: http://energy.cr.usgs.gov/energy/stats_
20
Consumer Goods: Wasting Energy
Product Wasting Rate(% discarded)
Quantity(million tons)
Disposable Diapers
100% 3.1
Disposable Tissues, Cups
100% 4.9
Clothing,Footwear
87% 5.0
Appliances 48% 2.1
Newsprint 45% 6.1
Source: EPA, “Characterization of Municipal Solid Waste in the U.S.: 1998 Update, as reported by the GrassRoots Recycling Network
21
Our Options
0
20
40
60
80
1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075
(Year)
(Gb
oe
/ ye
ar)
Demand Growth Efficiency
Transport Mode Shifts
Price/Taxes
City Design
Lifestyle
Other Fuels
Deprivation
After: Swenson, R., 1998 "Alternative Futures for Humanity, the Swenson Curve" www.hubbertpeak.com/scenario.htm
(Gboe = Billion Barrel Oil Equivalent)
22
Two Great Responsibilities
All Faiths share a sense of two great responsibilities
That we love one another
That we care for Creation
What does this tell us about our options in the world?
23
Present Energy Plan
Ramp up coal & nuclear
To compensate for reduced availability of oil & natural gas
Continue to increase consumption
And …
Add small amounts of renewables to U.S. energy supply
Very slowlyIncludes wind, solar, biomass, & geothermal
24
Problem 1. Pollution, Short-term Solutions
Massive increases in pollution and nuclear waste (5 -15 times present amts / year)
Very limited term solution … Domino Effect
Oil
NuclearCoal
Natur
al G
as 41 years
17 years
17 years14 years
Then What??
25
Problem 2. Climate Change
grams CO2 per kW-hr
Coal: 890-975Wind: 5 – 22
1870 1930 1990 2050 2110 (Year
)
Glo
bal M
ean
Tem
pera
ture
An
om
aly
(
ºC
)
2.8
2.4
2.0
1.6
1.2
0.8
0.4
0.0
-0.4
Top solid line: measured temperaturesDashed lines: Natl Ctr for Atmospheric Research
model results Red x is 2002 average global temperature.
x
Sources: The Crowded Greenhouse, John Firor and Judeth Jacobsen, Yale University Press, 2002, World Nuclear Association, Energy Analysis of Power Systems, February 2003 http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf11.htm
26
Alternative: Switch Once … to Renewables
OilRenewables
Wind, Solar, Biomass
Gas
Coal
En
erg
y
TimeUse the remaining oil and gas to help switch the infrastructure to renewables. A switch to renewables will be much more difficult if we
exhaust oil and gas first.
Phase it out
27
Faith in Place Programs
Illinois Interfaith Power & Light
Food of Faith
Youth Stewardship Programming
Local Interfaith Sustainability Circles
Earth Stewardship Education
28
Illinois Interfaith Power & Light
The Religious Community must lead the demand for development of renewable energy locally
Illinois Interfaith Power & Light does this through
Aggregating congregational demand for locally produced wind powerProviding guidance through workshops on energy conservation
29
Food of Faith
We must consume food that is grown with minimal energy inputs
We must create new supply mechanisms and product lines for food that is locally- and sustainably produced, good to the earth and to people
Food of Faith is doing this with TAQWA Eco~Foods, Harvest of Hope Winter Farmers Markets, & other programs
30
From the Ground Up
We must teach these values to our children
A need for youth programming for congregations
An urban agriculture programHelps young people understand natural systems and God’s careVermicomposting, beekeeping, & community gardening to a better world
31
Contact
For more info on Faith in Place and its programs
Rev. Clare Butterfield, Director773-278-4800, ext. [email protected]