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1 GFNorte’s 4Q07 Results Conference Call February 1, 2008.

1 GFNorte’s 4Q07 Results Conference Call February 1, 2008

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Page 1: 1 GFNorte’s 4Q07 Results Conference Call February 1, 2008

1

GFNorte’s 4Q07 Results

Conference CallFebruary 1, 2008.

Page 2: 1 GFNorte’s 4Q07 Results Conference Call February 1, 2008

2

Yearly Recap

Performing Loan Growth 19% 32%

2007

Net Income

Stock Price

P/BV

2006

6,185

Net Interest Margin

11%

42.25

3.15

7.7%

7%

2.75

7.6%

6,810

45.08

ROA 2.8% 2.6%

ROE 24.9% 22.6%

Book Value 13.42 16.42

Past Due Loan Ratio 1.4% 1.5%

22%

10%

CONSTANT MILLION PESOS

Page 3: 1 GFNorte’s 4Q07 Results Conference Call February 1, 2008

3

Quarterly Net IncomeCONSTANT MILLION PESOS

1,685

1,018

4Q04 4Q05

1,560

4Q06

1,263

4Q07

Page 4: 1 GFNorte’s 4Q07 Results Conference Call February 1, 2008

4

2006

15%

12%(36%)

(28%)

(2%)

9%

12%

6%

798%

1%

10%

67%

(95%)

2007

17,384

6,028580

1,292

7,899

25,283

14,432

10,851

1,867

(3,293)

6,810

(2,645)

31

Change

15,069

5,391900

1,782

8,072

23,141

12,931

10,210

208

(3,255)

6,185

(1,588)

610

QoQ YoY

24%

17%21%

(82%)

(5%)

14%

13%

16%

3,283%

(8%)

8%

170%

(130%)

4T06 4T07

4,881

1,666164

83

1,914

6,795

3,841

2,954

382

(694)

1,685

(921)

(36)

3,931

1,424136

450

2,010

5,941

3,395

2,546

(12)

(756)

1,560

(341)

122

Income StatementCONSTANT MILLION PESOS

Net Interest Income

Service FeesRecovery

FX and Trading

Non Interest Income

Total Income

Non Interest Expense

Net Operating Income

Non Operating Income, Net

Income Tax

Net Income

Provisions

Subs & Minority Interest

Page 5: 1 GFNorte’s 4Q07 Results Conference Call February 1, 2008

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Comparable Results

Net Interest Income 14,515

2007

17,38420%

MILLION PESOS

Non Interest Income 7,185 7,89910%

Total Income 21,700 25,28317%

Non Interest Expense 13,157 14,43210%

2006Accounting

Standards ‘07

Operating Profit 8,534 10,85127%

Page 6: 1 GFNorte’s 4Q07 Results Conference Call February 1, 2008

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Non Interest ExpenseCONSTANT BILLION PESOS

EFFICIENCY RATIO

Non Interest Expense

2006

12.9

2007

14.412%

56.8%

2005

55.0%

2006

56.3%

2007

Accounting Changes

52.9%

3.4 pp

Page 7: 1 GFNorte’s 4Q07 Results Conference Call February 1, 2008

7

Net Interest Margin vs CETESPERCENTAGE

CETES

Margin

4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07

99%

111%

4Q07

8.6

7.6

7.08.5

7.57.17.07.07.1 7.1 7.2 7.4

7.98.0

7.7 7.5 7.78.2

Page 8: 1 GFNorte’s 4Q07 Results Conference Call February 1, 2008

8

Core DepositsCONSTANT BILLION PESOS

Mix

Demand

Time

Demand

Time

Total

Deposits 4Q05 4Q074Q06

111

64

175

99

56

154

82

43

125 13%23%

13%

14%

21%

30%

63%

37%

100%

64%

36%

100%

66%

34%

100%

Page 9: 1 GFNorte’s 4Q07 Results Conference Call February 1, 2008

9

CONSTANT BILLION PESOS

Performing Loan Portfolio

4Q06 3Q07 4Q07 QoQChange

YoY

Commercial

Corporate

Government

Total

Consumer

23%10%

47%19%

60%0%

32%10%

29%7%

75

37

18

193

63

68

31

18

175

59

61

25

11

146

49

4T06 3T07 4T07

146175

193

Page 10: 1 GFNorte’s 4Q07 Results Conference Call February 1, 2008

10

Performing Consumer Loan PortfolioCONSTANT BILLION PESOS

4T05 3T07 4T07

4959 63

4Q06 3Q07 4Q07 QoQChange

YoY

Car Loans

Credit Card Loans

Payroll Loans

Consumer

10%3%

41%9%

20%1%

29%7%

7

14

6

63

7

13

6

59

7

10

5

49

Mortgage Loans 31%9%363328

Page 11: 1 GFNorte’s 4Q07 Results Conference Call February 1, 2008

11

NEW LOANS IN CONSTANT BILLION PESOS

AUTO

2005 2006

4.75.3

2007

6.3

MORTGAGE

2005 2006

7.4

11.0

2007

12.0

PAYROLL & PERSONAL

2005 2006

4.35.6

2007

6.7

11%49%

11%9%

11%13%11%19%

11%30%

11%20%

Consumer Loans

Page 12: 1 GFNorte’s 4Q07 Results Conference Call February 1, 2008

12

Credit CardsTHOUSANDS OF NEW CARDS

263

518

2005 2006

190

2004

709

2007

11%38%

11%97%

11%37%

Page 13: 1 GFNorte’s 4Q07 Results Conference Call February 1, 2008

13

Banking Sector Capitalization Ratio

Tier 1

Tier 2

TOTAL

Percentage Tier 1

PERCENTAGE

10.2%

3.6%

13.8%

2005 2006 2007

74%

13.3% 12.2%

2.8% 5.1%

16.1% 17.4%

83% 70%

Page 14: 1 GFNorte’s 4Q07 Results Conference Call February 1, 2008

14

Credit Ratings

+1

+2

=

Notches over

Investment Grade

Baa1

BBB

BBB-

Rating

Fitch

Moody’s

Standard & Poor’s

Institution

Positive

Positive

Stable

Outlook Date

Sep-07

Sep -07

Dec-07

Page 15: 1 GFNorte’s 4Q07 Results Conference Call February 1, 2008

15

Asset Quality

Past Due Loans

Loan Loss Reserves

RESERVECOVERAGE

PAST DUE LOANRATIO

Total Loan Portfolio

CONSTANT BILLION PESOS

4Q06 3Q07 4Q07

2.1

3.7

150

2.7

3.6

179

2.9

3.8

197

131%

172%

132%

4Q06 3Q07 4Q07

1.5%1.4%

4Q06 3Q07 4Q07

1.5%

Page 16: 1 GFNorte’s 4Q07 Results Conference Call February 1, 2008

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Reserve Creation from Loan Book

Mortgage

Corporate / Commercial

Government

Credit Card

696

76

1,229

539

Other Consumer

279

2007

Total Loan Portfolio

2,818

% of Total

25

2

44

19

10

100

69% of total

CONSTANT MILLION PESOS

Page 17: 1 GFNorte’s 4Q07 Results Conference Call February 1, 2008

17

Loan Book Performance

Mortgage

Corporate / Commercial

Government

Credit Card

14%

60%

41%

31%

Other Consumer

30%

Total 32%

ROE

38%

19%

31%

16%

21%

3.6%

0%

6.5%

0.8%

(0.2%)

Loan Growth

Net Credit Losses

23% 0.9%

Page 18: 1 GFNorte’s 4Q07 Results Conference Call February 1, 2008

18

Subsidiaries

Page 19: 1 GFNorte’s 4Q07 Results Conference Call February 1, 2008

19

Long Term Savings

NET INCOME IN MILLION PESOS

AFORE

148

53

2005 2006

INSURANCE

224168

2005 2006

ANNUITIES

50

323

2005 20062007

82

2007

136

2007

170

Total

2005

422

2006

545

2007

388

ROE: 16%

ROE: 24%

ROE: 20%

Page 20: 1 GFNorte’s 4Q07 Results Conference Call February 1, 2008

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Other Finance Companies

FACTORING

7392

WHAREHOUSING

15 11

LEASING

86

122107

140

15

Total

2005

197

2006

256

2007

271

ROE: 23%

ROE: 30%

ROE: 13%

2005 2006 2005 20062005 20062007 2007 2007

NET INCOME IN MILLION PESOS

Page 21: 1 GFNorte’s 4Q07 Results Conference Call February 1, 2008

21

Brokerage and Microlending

BROKERAGE MICROLENDING

(20)

232005

2006(30)

2007

ROE: 33%

80

191

2005 2006

288

2007

NET INCOME IN MILLION PESOS

Page 22: 1 GFNorte’s 4Q07 Results Conference Call February 1, 2008

22

Banorte USA

Million dollars

20072006

INB

Performing Loans

Efficiency

ROE

Net Income (70%)

Net Interest Margin

974

4.4%

15.8

41.6%

21.5%

779

12.5

19.4%

46.4%

4.6%

11%25%

11%26%

Page 23: 1 GFNorte’s 4Q07 Results Conference Call February 1, 2008

Challenges 2008

Infrastructure 80 new branches + 20 refurbishments.

600 new ATM’s + 330 substituions.

12,000 POS’s.

SME’s Low bancarization levels.

New secular growth story.

Specialized products & sales force.

Asset Quality Improve origination & follow up process.

Efforts to reduce reserve requirements.

Page 24: 1 GFNorte’s 4Q07 Results Conference Call February 1, 2008

Challenges 2008

Banorte USA

Microlending

Alternate channels

Greater revenue synergies.

New products.

Calibration of business model.

Emphasis on profitability & asset quality.

Seek new alliances.

Middle & lower income segments.

Government banking Increased loan demand.

Emphasis on payrolls.

Page 25: 1 GFNorte’s 4Q07 Results Conference Call February 1, 2008

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