ITS-TIS September 2006 1

OECD Balance of Payments

The quality review and follow-up

Bill Cave and Isaac Lagnado OECD Statistics Directorate

Overview

OECD Statistics Quality Review of BOP activity 2004

Self-assessment of what we do

Users and stakeholders

Report 2005

Progress and Follow-up

Self-assessment of what we do STD Balance of Payments (BOP) activity is twofold. compilation and maintenance of the BOP Dataset

– aims to provide analysts with timely and internationally comparable summary set of BOP data items for OECD (and Big 6)

coordination of OECD interests in Balance of Payments (excluding FDI where DAFFE leads)– representation of these in methodological development

work of the IMF Balance of Payments Committee Links to Trade in Services, FDI, Merchandise trade,

Remittances, National Accounts, Financial Accounts etc

Methodological Standards

BOP methodological standards set by IMF BOP Manual 5th Edition – now being revised IMF strongly encourages countries to present data according

IMF BPM5 standards All OECD countries ostensibly do so But national compilation methods vary e.g. ITRS, Surveys,

Customs and Other administrative data Generally good level of international comparability

ITS-TIS September 2006 5

Core Variables collected

1 Current Account B(alance)– Goods – X, M, B– Services – X, M, B– Income – Cr, Db, B– Current Transfers – B

2 Capital Account – B 3 Financial Account – B

– FDI Abroad, FDI in Reporting Economy– Portfolio Investment Assets, .. Liabilities– Financial derivatives net– Other Investment Assets, … Liabilities– Change in reserve assets

4 Net Errors and Omissions

How are data collected?

Web Queries

SIMS : electronic files or interrogation of National databases

Manual entry – seek to minimise Seasonal adjustment of current account series,

where countries do not provide(X12 ARIMA using Fame routines)

Measures and controls Measures are:

– national currency unadjusted and seasonally adjusted (current account only)

– US Dollar unadjusted and seasonally adjusted (selected variables only)

Data controls– Data capture – series by series historic comparisons– MEI validation controls

• CB=G+S+I+T• FA=DI+PI+FD+OI+RA• CB+CAP+FA+NEO=0

Users ECO are our most important user for their economic

forecasting and analysis. – Timeliness– Want 24 hour updating during peak periods– Seasonal adjusted data

DAF for investment committee or publications– Quarterly data

DSTI Detailed annual data

General demand for zone totals

Main Quality Review Recommendations

Develop Zone totals More automatic data collection and improve quality

control, and timeliness Review metadata in 2006 Take opportunities to raise the profile of BOP dataset No clear demand for more monthly series Review how to make non-member BOP more

coherent

Recent Developments in BOP

More $ series

Zones OECD and G7 Totals for Goods , Services, FDI and G7

Monitoring timeliness – Exhibit A and B

Coordination with Non-member BOP – Factbook

Newsletter article

Proactive discussion with users

Zone totals for FDI FlowsOECD and G7 FDI flows

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

$bn

OECDoutflowsOECD inflows

G7 outflows

G7 inflows

Data dissemination

MEI – BOP data are compiled, stored and published in the MEI

database. Dissemination simply reflects the case of the MEI database as a whole

Press release– Quarterly news release for Trade in Goods and Services

OECD.Stat – BOP dataset on OLIS and free subset on Internet

Current Plans

Review and Revise Metadata by End 2005

Improve timeliness

Create new Zone totals – OECD Europe, N America, Asia-Pacific

Improve Quality: with SIMS to develop new data preparation and validation area

Non-members?

ITS-TIS September 2006 14

The End

Thank you for your attention

Any comments or questions?