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Making Aviation Safer: Results of the National Aviation Weather Program’s

10-Year Goal to Reduce Weather-Related Accidents by 80 Percent

Making Aviation Safer: Results of the National Aviation Weather Program’s

10-Year Goal to Reduce Weather-Related Accidents by 80 Percent

Jud Stailey, Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology

October 9, 2008

Friends/Partners of Aviation Weather

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Overview

• Background

• Mid-Course Assessment• Final Assessment

– FAR Definitions – Hazard Categories– Ten-year Trends– By Hazard Category

• Way Ahead

Courtesy of Wings of Alaska Airlines © Mike Mastin

Courtesy of AOPA © AOPA

Courtesy of Southwest Airlines

Courtesy of NATA © NATA

Courtesy of Air Ambulance Specialists, Inc.

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Background• NRC – Aviation Weather Services – A Call for Federal

Leadership and Action – 1995

• White House Commission on Aviation Safety and Security – 1997– Goal: Reduce fatal accidents by 80% in 10 years

• National Aviation Weather Program (NAWP) Strategic Plan – 1997

• NAWP Initiatives – 1999

• Programs/Projects– Baseline – 2001

– Update – 2003

– Update – 2004

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Mid-Course Assessment - 2003• Included accident data 1996-2001• Established trends for all weather-related and

fatal weather-related accidents• Reviewed status of programs/projects in

context of accident trends• Conclusions & Recommendations

• Sustaining risk reduction success in general aviation

• Further analysis into impact of weather hazards on smaller commercial carriers

• Reducing risk from turbulence and convection hazards

• Reducing risk from high density altitude

• Sustaining investment in programs/projects for near-term improvements

• Sustaining investment in R&D to continue longer-term improvements

Focus areas to move forward

Significant progress toward 10-year goal!

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Final Assessment

• Received final NTSB accident data through 2006 in Spring 2008

• Analysis of the full ten years using same approach used in the Mid-Course Assessment

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Final Assessment

Categories of aviation operations were considered separately:•Part 91: All aviation other than military or commercial•Part 121: Major passenger airlines and cargo carriers that fly large transport-category aircraft in revenue service•Part 135: Scheduled passenger service in aircraft with fewer than ten seats and nonscheduled operations—revenue-earning flights in which the departure time, departure location and destination are negotiated with the customer

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Final Assessment

Hazard Categories:

• Restricted Visibility and Ceiling (7)

• Precipitation (non-icing) (3)

• Icing Conditions (4)

• Turbulence and Convection (17)

• Temperature and Lift (6)

• En Route and Terminal Winds (4)

• Electrical (2)

• Airborne solids (2)

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Accident Trends

Significant progress in meeting the10-year accident reduction goal

RATE TRENDS

Part 91: All

Part 121:

Part 135

Fatal

Wx-related All causes

17%

17%

17%

63%

7%

49%

33%

30%

23%

37%

Fatal

All

All

9Part 91 Aviation, Weather-Related Accidents per 100,000 Flight-Hours

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

Acc

iden

ts p

er 1

00,0

00 F

lig

ht-

Ho

urs

All weather-related accidents Weather-related fatal

2006 goal = 0.082006 trend = 0.23

2006 goal = 0.342006 trend = 1.12

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Part 121 Aviation, Weather-related Accidents per 100,000 Departures

0.000

0.040

0.080

0.120

0.160

0.200

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

Acc

iden

ts p

er 1

00,0

00 D

epar

ture

s

All weather-related Weather-related fatal

2006 goal = 0.02006 trend = 0.000

2006 goal = 0.0222006 trend = 0.084

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Part 135 Aviation, Weather-Related Accidents per 100,000 Flight-Hours

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

Acc

iden

ts p

er 1

00,0

00

Flig

ht-

Ho

urs

All weather-related Weather-related fatal

2006 goal = 0.042006 trend = 0.206

2006 goal = 0.102006 trend = 0.49

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Part 91, Trend for Category A, Restricted Visibility and Ceiling Hazards

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

Fatal Accidents All Accidents

2006 goal = 0.102006 trend = 0.21

2006 goal = 0.082006 trend = 0.18W

eath

er F

acto

r C

ites

per

100,

000

Flig

ht-H

ours

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Part 91, Trend for Category D, Turbulence and Convection Hazards

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

Fatal Accidents All Accidents

Wea

ther

Fac

tor

Cite

s pe

r 10

0,00

0 F

light

-Hou

rs

2006 goal = 0.152006 trend = 0.41

2006 goal = 0.022006 trend = 0.05

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Part 91, Trend for Category F, En Route and Terminal Winds

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

Fatal Accidents All Accidents

Wea

ther

Fac

tor

Cite

s pe

r 10

0,00

0 F

light

-Hou

rs

2006 goal = 0.162006 trend = 0.47

2006 goal = 0.0152006 trend = 0.022

15Part 121: Trends for all weather hazards and for turbulence & convection hazards

0.000

0.020

0.040

0.060

0.080

0.100

0.120

0.140

0.160

0.180

0.200

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

All Turbulence and convection hazards

2006 goal = 0.0252006 trend = 0.084

2006 goal = 0.0232006 trend = 0.077

Wea

ther

Fac

tor

Cite

s pe

r 10

0,00

0 D

epar

ture

s

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The Way Ahead

• Continue to collect and analyze annual data• Investigate timing and potential effectiveness of

programs/projects in light of trends (including those completed before 1997)

• Consider continuing to identify and track programs/ projects

Objective: Sustain progress to date, remove barriers to reducing accident rates further, and provide an effective system for NextGen transition.

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BACKUP SLIDES

18NTSB Factors and Weather Categories

Restricted visibility and ceiling:•Below approach/landing mins•Clouds•Fog•Haze/smoke•Low ceiling•Obscuration•Whiteout

Precipitation (non-icing):•Rain•Snow•Drizzle/mist

Icing conditions:•Icing conditions•Ice fog•Freezing rain•Carburetor icing

Turbulence and convection:•Turbulence (thunderstorm)•Thunderstorm•Thunderstorm outflow•Microburst (dry)•Microburst (wet)•Updraft•Downdraft•Gusts•Wind shear•Dust Devil/Whirlwind•Variable wind•Sudden wind shift•Mountain Wave•Turbulence•Turbulence, clear air•Turbulence in clouds•Turbulence (terrain induced)

19NTSB Factors and Weather Categories (Cont’d)

Temperature and lift:•Temperature inversion•High density altitude•Temperature, high•Temperature, low•Thermal lift•No thermal lift

En route and terminal winds:•Unfavorable wind•Crosswind•Tail wind•High wind

Electrical:•Lightning•Static discharge

Airborne solids:•Sand/dust storm•Hail

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National Aviation Weather Program

Strat Plan

Initiatives

User Forum

Training

Mid-Course Assessment

Volc Ash Conference

Programs & Projects Update

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

NBAA Weather PanelNBAA Weather PanelOrlando, FloridaOrlando, FloridaOctober 9, 2008October 9, 2008

Steve HansenSteve HansenNational Air Traffic Controllers National Air Traffic Controllers

AssociationAssociation1325 Massachusetts Ave NW1325 Massachusetts Ave NW

Washington, DC 20005Washington, DC 20005

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ATC DUTY PRIORITYATC DUTY PRIORITYa. Give first priority to separating

aircraft and issuing safety alerts as required

b. Provide support to national security and homeland defense activities

c. Provide additional services to the extent possible, contingent only upon higher priority duties and other factors including limitations of radar, volume of traffic, frequency congestion, and workload.

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ATC SERVICEATC SERVICE

…The provision of additional services (includes weather advisories) is not optional on the part of the controller, but rather is required when the work situation permits…

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Issue pertinent information on observed or reported weather.

Provide radar navigational guidance and/or approve deviations around weather or chaff areas when requested by the pilot.

Issue the level of echo intensity when that information is available.

When a deviation cannot be approved as requested and the situation permits, suggest an alternative course of action.

ATC Requirements

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Important Things to Remember

Any additional service, such as weather avoidance assistance, can only be provided to the extent that it does not take away from ATC’s primary function of providing safe separation between aircraft.

To a large degree, the assistance that might be rendered by ATC will depend upon the weather information available to controllers. Due to the extremely transitory nature of severe weather situations, the controller's weather information may be of only limited value if based on weather observed on radar only.

Frequent updates by pilots giving specific information as to the area affected, altitudes, intensity and nature of the severe weather can be of considerable value.

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Controllers want YOU to avoid weatherControllers want YOU to avoid weather

Do not assume ATC will automatically keep Do not assume ATC will automatically keep you clear of weatheryou clear of weather Depending on aircraft type, controller may Depending on aircraft type, controller may

assume you have weather radarassume you have weather radar

Ask EACH controller about weather Ask EACH controller about weather avoidance servicesavoidance services

Keys to Dealing With ATC

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ATC Terms & PhraseologyATC Terms & Phraseology

“Precipitation” - used to describe radar derived weather informationLIGHT, MODERATE, HEAVY, EXTREMEENROUTE – MODERATE, HEAVY, EXTREME

"Heavy to Extreme precipitation between ten o'clock and two o'clock, one five miles. Precipitation area is two five miles in diameter."

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ATC Terms & PhraseologyATC Terms & PhraseologyCorrect Phraseology: “Deviation approved, up to 15 degrees right of

course, advise when able to proceed direct XXX.”

Phraseology that you often hear: “Deviation approved, up to 15 degrees right of

course, proceed direct XXX when able or when clear of the weather.”

“Direct when able” trap: Controller gives “proceed direct XXX when able” or

“when clear of the weather”, and pilot assumes they are clear of the weather.

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ThunderstormsThunderstorms

TurbulenceTurbulenceHailHailRainRainSnowSnowLightningLightningSustained updrafts/downdraftsSustained updrafts/downdraftsIcingIcing

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ATC and NEXRAD

NEXRAD available to ATC, but…. Different adaptation schemes

Major terminals integrate NEXRAD –more colors than centers

Centers integrate NEXRAD – three colors Flight Service Stations use NEXRAD, but

use pilot reports for position and planned route

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NEXRAD Sites

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CONUS NEXRAD Coverage

3333

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ATC Weather Displays Only show precipitation Weather updates are 5 to 8 minutes old Approach control displays

STARS is digital – NEXRAD is integratedOld CRT’s with primary WX

Center displayDSR is digital – NEXRAD is integrated

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ENROUTE WX Display

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Terminal WX Display (STARS)

Courtesy of Raytheon

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ITWS ITWS (Integrated Terminal WX System)(Integrated Terminal WX System)

Courtesy of Raytheon

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PIREPS – An Important Tool

PIREPS are used to develop hazardous WX avoidance plans, and to assist ATC in providing a safe expeditious flow of air traffic.

FAA air traffic facilities are required to solicit PIREPs when the following conditions are reported or forecast:

Ceilings at or below 5,000

Visibility at or below 5 miles

Thunderstorms and related phenomena

Icing of light degree or greater

Turbulence of moderate degree or greater

Wind shear Reported or forecast

volcanic ash clouds.

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““Safety breakdowns are the product Safety breakdowns are the product of good people trying to make sense of good people trying to make sense of an operationally confusing of an operationally confusing context, rather than the product of context, rather than the product of bad people making errors….”bad people making errors….”

Bert RuitenbergBert Ruitenberg

IFATCA Human Factor SpecialistIFATCA Human Factor Specialist

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Summary Radar available to ATC can only “see”

precipitation ATC guidance for WX avoidance – vague at

best Some controllers provide better WX info than

others – expect inconsistency NEVER assume controllers are providing WX

avoidance services – ask each controller! Worse case scenario: You think ATC is

providing WX avoidance services at the same time ATC thinks you are avoiding WX on your own – in fact NOBODY IS!!!