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FPL Group is subject to extensive federal, state and local environmental statutes, rules and regulations relating to air quality, water quality, waste management, natural resources and health and safety that could, among other things, restrict or limit the use of certain fuels required for the production of electricity. There are significant capital, operating and other costs associated with compliance with these environmental statutes, rules and regulations, and those costs could be even more significant in the future. FPL Group operates in a changing market environment influenced by various legislative and regulatory initiatives regarding deregulation, regulation or restructuring of the energy industry, including deregulation of the production and sale of electricity. FPL Group and its subsidiaries will need to adapt to these changes and may face increasing competitive pressure. The operation of power generation facilities involves many risks, including start up risks, breakdown or failure of equipment, transmission lines, pipelines, the dependence on a specific fuel source or the impact of unusual or adverse weather conditions (including natural disasters such as hurricanes), as well as the risk of performance below expected levels of output or efficiency. This could result in lost revenues and/or increased expenses. Insurance, warranties or performance guarantees may not cover any or all of the lost revenues or increased expenses, including the cost of replacement power. In addition to these risks, FPL's nuclear units face certain risks that are unique to the nuclear industry including additional regulatory actions up to and including shut down of the units stemming from public safety concerns at FPL's plants, as well as at the plants of other nuclear operators. Breakdown or failure of an FPL Energy, LLC operating facility may prevent the facility from performing under applicable power sales agreements which, in certain situations, could result in termination of the agreement or incurring a liability for liquidated damages. FPL Group's ability to successfully and timely complete its power generation facilities currently under construction, those projects yet to begin construction or capital improvements to existing facilities is contingent upon many variables and subject to substantial risks. Should any such efforts be unsuccessful, FPL Group could be subject to additional costs, termination payments under committed contracts and/or the write off of its investment in the project or improvement. FPL Group uses derivative instruments, such as swaps, options, futures and forwards to manage their commodity and financial market risks, and to a lesser extent, engage in limited trading activities. FPL Group could recognize financial losses as a result of volatility in the market values of these contracts, or if a counterparty fails to perform. There are other risks associated with FPL Group's nonregulated businesses, particularly FPL Energy. In addition to risks discussed elsewhere, risk factors specifically affecting FPL Energy's success in competitive wholesale markets include the ability to efficiently develop and operate generating assets, the price and supply of fuel, transmission constraints, competition from new sources of generation, excess generation capacity and demand for power. There can be significant volatility in market prices for fuel and electricity, and there are other financial, counterparty and market risks that are beyond the control of FPL Energy. FPL Energy's inability or failure to effectively hedge its assets or positions against changes in commodity prices, interest rates, counterparty credit risk or other risk measures could significantly impair its future financial results. In keeping with industry trends, a portion of FPL Energy's power generation facilities operate wholly or partially without long-term power purchase agreements. As a result, power from these facilities is sold on the spot market or on a short-term contractual basis, which may affect the volatility of FPL Group's financial results. In addition, FPL Energy's business depends upon transmission facilities owned and operated by others; if transmission is disrupted or capacity is inadequate or unavailable FPL Energy's ability to sell and deliver its wholesale power may be limited. 3
Citation preview
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Morgan StanleyGlobal Electricity & Energy ConferenceMarch 13, 2003
In connection with the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, FPL Group, Inc. is hereby presenting cautionary statements identifying important factors that could cause its actual results to differ materially from those projected in forward-looking statements (as such term is defined in the Reform Act) made by or on behalf of FPL Group in this presentation, in response to questions or otherwise. Any statements that express, or involve discussions as to expectations, beliefs, plans, objectives, assumptions or future events or performance (often, but not always, through the use of words or phrases such as will likely result, are expected to, will continue, is anticipated, estimated, projection, target, outlook) are not statements of historical facts and may be forward-looking. Forward-looking statements involve estimates, assumptions and uncertainties. Accordingly, any such statements are qualified in their entirety by reference to, and are accompanied by, the following important factors (in addition to any assumptions and other factors referred to specifically in connection with such forward-looking statements) that could cause the Company's actual results to differ materially from those contained in forward-looking statements made by or on behalf of the Company.
Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which such statement is made, and the Company undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement to reflect events or circumstances after the date on which such statement is made or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. New factors emerge from time to time and it is not possible for management to predict all of such factors, nor can it assess the impact of each such factor on the business or the extent to which any factor, or combination of factors, may cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement.
The following are some important factors that could have a significant impact on FPL Group's operations and financial results, and could cause FPL Group's actual results or outcomes to differ materially from those discussed in the forward-looking statements:
•FPL Group is subject to changes in laws or regulations, including the Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978, as amended, and the Public Utility Holding Company Act of 1935, as amended, changing governmental policies and regulatory actions, including those of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, the Florida Public Service Commission and the utility commissions of other states in which FPL Group has operations, and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, with respect to, among other things, allowed rates of return, industry and rate structure, operation of nuclear power facilities, operation and construction of plant facilities, operation and construction of transmission facilities, acquisition, disposal, depreciation and amortization of assets and facilities, recovery of fuel and purchased power costs, decommissioning costs, return on common equity and equity ratio limits, and present or prospective wholesale and retail competition (including but not limited to retail wheeling and transmission costs). The Florida Public Service Commission has the authority to disallow recovery of costs that it considers excessive or imprudently incurred.
•The regulatory process generally restricts FPL's ability to grow earnings and does not provide any assurance as to achievement of earnings levels.
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Cautionary Statements And Risk Factors That May Affect Future Results
•FPL Group is subject to extensive federal, state and local environmental statutes, rules and regulations relating to air quality, water quality, waste management, natural resources and health and safety that could, among other things, restrict or limit the use of certain fuels required for the production of electricity. There are significant capital, operating and other costs associated with compliance with these environmental statutes, rules and regulations, and those costs could be even more significant in the future.
•FPL Group operates in a changing market environment influenced by various legislative and regulatory initiatives regarding deregulation, regulation or restructuring of the energy industry, including deregulation of the production and sale of electricity. FPL Group and its subsidiaries will need to adapt to these changes and may face increasing competitive pressure.
•The operation of power generation facilities involves many risks, including start up risks, breakdown or failure of equipment, transmission lines, pipelines, the dependence on a specific fuel source or the impact of unusual or adverse weather conditions (including natural disasters such as hurricanes), as well as the risk of performance below expected levels of output or efficiency. This could result in lost revenues and/or increased expenses. Insurance, warranties or performance guarantees may not cover any or all of the lost revenues or increased expenses, including the cost of replacement power. In addition to these risks, FPL's nuclear units face certain risks that are unique to the nuclear industry including additional regulatory actions up to and including shut down of the units stemming from public safety concerns at FPL's plants, as well as at the plants of other nuclear operators. Breakdown or failure of an FPL Energy, LLC operating facility may prevent the facility from performing under applicable power sales agreements which, in certain situations, could result in termination of the agreement or incurring a liability for liquidated damages.
•FPL Group's ability to successfully and timely complete its power generation facilities currently under construction, those projects yet to begin construction or capital improvements to existing facilities is contingent upon many variables and subject to substantial risks. Should any such efforts be unsuccessful, FPL Group could be subject to additional costs, termination payments under committed contracts and/or the write off of its investment in the project or improvement.
•FPL Group uses derivative instruments, such as swaps, options, futures and forwards to manage their commodity and financial market risks, and to a lesser extent, engage in limited trading activities. FPL Group could recognize financial losses as a result of volatility in the market values of these contracts, or if a counterparty fails to perform.
•There are other risks associated with FPL Group's nonregulated businesses, particularly FPL Energy. In addition to risks discussed elsewhere, risk factors specifically affecting FPL Energy's success in competitive wholesale markets include the ability to efficiently develop and operate generating assets, the price and supply of fuel, transmission constraints, competition from new sources of generation , excess generation capacity and demand for power. There can be significant volatility in market prices for fuel and electricity, and there are other financial, counterparty and market risks that are beyond the control of FPL Energy. FPL Energy's inability or failure to effectively hedge its assets or positions against changes in commodity prices, interest rates, counterparty credit risk or other risk measures could significantly impair its future financial results. In keeping with industry trends, a portion of FPL Energy's power generation facilities operate wholly or partially without long-term power purchase agreements. As a result, power from these facilities is sold on the spot market or on a short-term contractual basis, which may affect the volatility of FPL Group's financial results. In addition, FPL Energy's business depends upon transmission facilities owned and operated by others; if transmission is disrupted or capacity is inadequate or unavailable FPL Energy's ability to sell and deliver its wholesale power may be limited.
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•FPL Group is likely to encounter significant competition for acquisition opportunities that may become available as a result of the consolidation of the power industry. In addition, FPL Group may be unable to identify attractive acquisition opportunities at favorable prices and to successfully and timely complete and integrate them.
•FPL Group relies on access to capital markets as a significant source of liquidity for capital requirements not satisfied by operating cash flows. The inability to raise capital on favorable terms, particularly during times of uncertainty in the capital markets, could impact FPL Group's ability to grow its businesses and would likely increase its interest costs.
•FPL Group is subject to costs and other effects of legal and administrative proceedings, settlements, investigations and claims; as well as the effect of new, or changes in, tax rates or policies, rates of inflation or accounting standards.
•FPL Group is subject to direct and indirect effects of terrorists threats and activities. Generation and transmission facilities, in general, have been identified as potential targets. The effects of terrorist threats and activities include, among other things, actions or responses to such actions or threats, the inability to generate, purchase or transmit power, the risk of a significant slowdown in growth or a decline in the U.S. economy, delay in economic recovery in the U.S., and the increased cost and adequacy of security and insurance.
•FPL Group's ability to obtain insurance, and the cost of and coverage provided by such insurance, could be affected by recent national events as well as company-specific events.
•FPL Group is subject to employee workforce factors, including loss or retirement of key executives, availability of qualified personnel, collective bargaining agreements with union employees or work stoppage.
The issues and associated risks and uncertainties described above are not the only ones FPL Group may face. Additional issues may arise or become material as the energy industry evolves. The risks and uncertainties associated with these additional issues could impair FPL Group's businesses in the future.
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Capitalizing on Our Strengths
Premier integrated utilityPremier integrated utility– high growth, stable customer base– favorable regulatory climate
Successful wholesale generation businessSuccessful wholesale generation business– well hedged portfolio– attractive earnings growth prospects
Strong balance sheetStrong balance sheet Substantial cash flow to fund expansionSubstantial cash flow to fund expansion
6
2003 Capacity2003 Capacity% contracted % contracted 11::
FPL 100%FPL 100%
FPL Energy 77%FPL Energy 77%Total FPL Group Total FPL Group 2 2 97%97%
Financial DisciplineWell Hedged Position
85%
15%
Florida Power & Light FPL Energy
Corp. & Other
Earnings Contribution %
2003E
Notes:1 As of 3/5/032 Weighted average based on 2003 estimated earnings contribution
7
8
Favorable customer mix Favorable customer mix Strong customer and usage growth Strong customer and usage growth Operational excellence Operational excellence Proven cost management Proven cost management Constructive regulatory environment Constructive regulatory environment Superior environmental performanceSuperior environmental performance
Premier Electric Utility
Attractive financial returnsAttractive financial returns
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Growing EPS at FPL
Excluding nonrecurring items.
$3.57 $3.61$3.79
$4.11 $4.14
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
10
35%
36%
32%
3%30%
55%
3%6%
OtherIndustrialCommercialResidential
High Growth Utility with Favorable Customer Mix
Solid customer baseSolid customer base– over 4 million customer
accounts– residential and
commercial customers> 90% of total
Strong demand growthStrong demand growth11
– 2.0% avg. annual increase in customer accounts
– 1.6% avg. annual increase in usage per customer FPL Industry
AverageNote:1 Over last 10 years
% of Revenues
11
Substantial Regulated Generation Fleet
Nearly 20,940 MW of Nearly 20,940 MW of generating capability in generating capability in FloridaFlorida– 1,300 MW to be
added in 2003– 1,900 MW to be
added in 2005 Diverse fuel mixDiverse fuel mix
24%
32%
20%
18%6% Oil
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Coal
Purchased Power
Energy Sources(by kWh produced)
12
94%
87%
97%
89%
FPL IndustryAverage
FPL IndustryAverage
69
139
FPL IndustryAverage
Operational Excellence
Plant AvailabilityPlant Availability
FPL = 50% better than average
Service Reliability Service Reliability Outage Time Per Customer (Min.)
Fossil Nuclear
FPL information as of 2002; industry information as of 2001.
13
Superior Cost Management(O&M $ per customer)
$505
$292
$481
$407
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
$550
$600
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02
Industry Average
FPL
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FPL Residential Rates Low
Comparisons of a 1,000 kWh residential bill as of 3/4/03.Rates for FPL, PEF and TECO are effective on 4/1/03.
$77.44$81.60 $83.71
$88.66 $91.62 $94.14
$106.55$112.00
$133.69
Gulf FPL PEF NationalAverage
PA TECO MA NJ CA
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Superior Environmental Performance
““FPL received a rating of AAA, ranking 1 out of 30 Electric Companies FPL received a rating of AAA, ranking 1 out of 30 Electric Companies in this sector.”in this sector.”
““As consistently demonstrated in many industry sectors, As consistently demonstrated in many industry sectors, environmental leadership by companies such as FPL reflects visionary environmental leadership by companies such as FPL reflects visionary management that ultimately leads to financial and stock out-management that ultimately leads to financial and stock out-performance.”performance.”
Frank Dixon - InnovestFrank Dixon - Innovest
Innovest Names FPL Group #1 EnvironmentalPerformer among Top 30 Utilities
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Constructive Regulatory Environment
Fuel, capacity charges directly passed through to Fuel, capacity charges directly passed through to customerscustomers
““Rate certainty” through end of 2005Rate certainty” through end of 2005– incentive-based agreement allowing shareholders to
benefit from productivity improvements– “win-win” revenue sharing provision instead of ROE
measure No current activity on wholesale restructuringNo current activity on wholesale restructuring
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Business Strategies
Capitalize on growing demand for electricity in our Capitalize on growing demand for electricity in our service territoryservice territory
Continue to improve our outstanding operating Continue to improve our outstanding operating performanceperformance
Seek opportunities to profitably grow our core utility Seek opportunities to profitably grow our core utility businessbusiness
Work to maintain the collaborative and progressive Work to maintain the collaborative and progressive regulatory environment in Floridaregulatory environment in Florida
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19
Disciplined Wholesale Generator
Low risk approachLow risk approach– diversified by region, fuel source– well hedged portfolio– emphasis on base-load assets
Low cost providerLow cost provider– modern, efficient, clean plants– operational excellence
Industry leader in wind generationIndustry leader in wind generation Conservative, integrated asset optimization Conservative, integrated asset optimization
functionfunction
• 7,2491 net MW in operation
• presence in 22 states
Note:1 Includes 550 MW of leased capacity at R.I.S.E.P.
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Growing EPS at FPL Energy
Excluding nonrecurring items and the effect of non-managed hedges.
$0.19
$0.34
$0.49
$0.62
$0.73
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
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NortheastNortheast
Mid-AtlanticMid-Atlantic23%23%
26%26%
15%15%
36%36%
WestWest
Regional DiversityRegional Diversity Fuel DiversityFuel Diversity
GasGas61%61%
19%19%WindWind
OtherOther1%1%
HydroHydro3%3% 7%7%
OilOil
Diversified Portfolio
Year-end 2004 (Projected)Year-end 2004 (Projected)(11,366 (11,366 11 Net MW in Net MW in Operation)Operation)
CentralCentral
NuclearNuclear9%9%
Note:1 Includes 550 MW of leased capacity at R.I.S.E.P.
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Wind Energy: Unique Advantage
More than 1,700 net MW in operationMore than 1,700 net MW in operation– U.S. market leader with more than 1/3 market share
Supported by policy trends (RPS, PTCs) and Supported by policy trends (RPS, PTCs) and economicseconomics
Attractive financial characteristicsAttractive financial characteristics– long-term power contracts (15 – 25 years)– ROEs in the high teens/low 20s– accretive in first full year
Disciplined development opportunities underwayDisciplined development opportunities underway
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Year in Service Net MW Existing plants in 2000 577 2001 843 2002 324 2003 Announced projects 434 Expected project additions 270 − 770 Total in service by YE2003 2,450 – 2,950
Wind Energy: Announced Growth(Projected Operating Net MW)
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Strong Contract Coverage
More than 90 percent of expected 2003 gross margin hedged
Balance of 2003 2004
Asset Class Available
MW 1 % MW
Hedged Available
MW 1 % MW
Hedged Wind 2 1,959 100 2,179 100 Other projects / QFs 2 1,255 98 1,255 98 Merchants Seabrook 2 941 99 1,024 79 NEPOOL / PJM / NYPP 3 1,550 46 1,951 19 ERCOT 3 2,504 74 3,009 8 WECC / SERC 3 1,001 40 1,345 52
Total portfolio 3 9,210 77 10,764 53
Notes:1 Weighted to reflect in-service dates, planned maintenance, and refueling outage for Seabrook2 Reflects RTC MW3 Reflects on-peak MWAs of 3/5/03
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MW Under ContractWind
434
0
840
840
985
2,099
1,068
1,1111,282
1,269
1,144
1,8011,883
1,8581,690
1,632
1,289
2,1792,179
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027
(MW
)
As of 3/5/03
26
MW Under ContractQFs / Other Projects
1,235
013125125
53
936994
994936
936855
1,186
1,1861,231
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
(MW
)
As of 3/5/03
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Seabrook15% - 20%
QFs20% - 25%
Wind30% - 35%
Merchants15% - 20%
Restructuring10% - 15%
Projected EBIT for 2003
Excludes G&A allocation. Includes PTCs “grossed-up” to a pre-tax basis.
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Project Restructuring Opportunities
Highly experienced project restructuring teamHighly experienced project restructuring team Proven track record with two significant project Proven track record with two significant project
restructurings in 2002restructurings in 2002– gas contract – power supply contract
Substantial backlog of opportunities for 2003Substantial backlog of opportunities for 2003– power contracts in PJM– natural gas supply contract in Northeast– 3rd-party QF restructurings in NEPOOL and PJM
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Business Strategies
Remain a low-cost providerRemain a low-cost provider Selective development, primarily wind and some Selective development, primarily wind and some
fossil, but only with long-term contractsfossil, but only with long-term contracts Maintain a portfolio diversified by region and fuel Maintain a portfolio diversified by region and fuel
sourcesource Reduce risk by contracting majority of output and Reduce risk by contracting majority of output and
hedging fuel requirementshedging fuel requirements Continue to further optimize portfolioContinue to further optimize portfolio Consider acquisitions that are accretive, Consider acquisitions that are accretive,
strategically attractive and financeablestrategically attractive and financeable
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Financial disciplineFinancial discipline Strong credit ratingsStrong credit ratings
A2 / A - = FPL Group Capital Aa3 / A = Florida Power &
Light Company 2002 net income of $831 2002 net income of $831
million million 11
Prudent dividend policyPrudent dividend policy
Strong Financial Position
Debt to Cap Ratio
49
59
25
50
75
FPL Group IndustryAverage
(%)
Notes:1 Excluding mark-to-market effect of non-managed hedges and nonrecurring items2 FPL Group Debt to Cap Ratio = 49% with 80% equity credit for equity-linked securities
55
2
32
FPLFPL– expect 4 - 5% earnings growth off the 2002 weather-normalized
base– equates to $725 - $735 million 2003 weather-normalized
earnings FPL EnergyFPL Energy
– expect 2003 earnings growth of 30 - 50%– > 90 percent of 2003 gross margin hedged– full year impact of Seabrook and 324 MW of wind projects– targeting additional 700 - 1,200 MW of wind projects by year
end Corporate and OtherCorporate and Other
– breakeven results at FPL FiberNet– higher interest expense– net drag of 20 - 30 cents per share
Outlook for 2003 Remains Strong
EPS guidance of $4.80 to $5.00EPS guidance of $4.80 to $5.00
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Premier integrated utility serving a vibrant Premier integrated utility serving a vibrant territoryterritory
Growing wholesale generation business with Growing wholesale generation business with moderate risk profilemoderate risk profile
Operational and environmental excellenceOperational and environmental excellence Financial strength and disciplineFinancial strength and discipline Proven track recordProven track record Solid corporate governance policies and practicesSolid corporate governance policies and practices
FPL Group: A Solid Investment
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Appendix
36
Capital Plan Supports Disciplined Growth Strategy
Projected Capital Sources & Uses 2003 - 2005 ($ billion)
Operating cash flow less dividends
Equity issuance through benefit plans
Future debt issuance
Regulated utility
FPL Energy
5.1 - 6.15.1 - 6.1
0.0 - 1.3
0.3
4.5 - 4.8 4.0 - 4.5
Sources Uses
Wind 0.7 - 1.2
Gas 0.4
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Potential Drivers of2003 Earnings Variability
Weather variability
at 80% probability
±18¢
Customer growth ±4-5¢
Usage growth ±7-8¢
O&M expenses 2% variation ±8¢
See Safe Harbor Statement and SEC filings for full discussion of risks(as of 1/24/03)
Issue Variability 2003 EPS Impact
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Potential Driversof 2003 Earnings Variability
Commodity price exposure (hedging)Commodity price exposure (hedging) Counterparty performance (credit risk)Counterparty performance (credit risk) Weather (wind, hydro)Weather (wind, hydro) Wind development programWind development program Development and asset restructuring activitiesDevelopment and asset restructuring activities Plant reliabilityPlant reliability
See Safe Harbor Statement and SEC filings for full discussion of risks
39
Market Price SensitivityUnhedged Segment
Merchant Assets Available
MW 1 % MW
Unhedged
Sensitivity
Range of Recent Variability in
Forward Prices ($/MWh)
2003 Impact
Seabrook
941 1 power price
NEPOOL / PJM / NYPP 2 1,550 54 3 spark spread
ERCOT (North Zone)
2,504 26 spark spread
WECC
1,001 60 3 spark spread
Total merchants
5,996 35 4 Total 2003 impact
+$7
-$6
+$2
-$2
+$2
-$3
+$7
-$6
±1¢
±1¢
±2¢
±3¢
±7¢
Notes:1 Weighted to reflect in-service dates; all assets adjusted for 2003 outages, including refueling outage for Seabrook2 Does not include Maine hydro; pricing based on NEPOOL RI Zone3 Represents on-peak MW unhedged only4 Weighted average of available MWAs of 3/5/03
40
Managing Credit Exposure
87% of 2003 revenues are with investment grade 87% of 2003 revenues are with investment grade counterpartiescounterparties– 92% excluding Southern California Edison and PG&E
In net payable position with non-investment grade In net payable position with non-investment grade counterpartiescounterparties
See Safe Harbor Statement and SEC filings for full discussion of risks(as of 1/24/03)
41
Earnings Sensitivity to Weather and Other Factors
Issue Sensitivity Variability Potential 2003 Impact
Maine hydro rainfall, snow pack
± 20% 1
Wind portfolio wind resource
± 11% 1
Wind development timing;
megawatts
Asset restructuring
10 – 15% of FPL Energy earnings
+7¢
-3¢
+6¢
-6¢
+ 6 - 7¢
- 6 - 7¢
Note:1 Represents 1 standard deviationSee Safe Harbor Statement and SEC filings for full discussion of risks(as of 1/24/03)
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