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1
Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal
Keith Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) : MA, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Reader Emeritus in Environmental Science,
University of East Anglia
Science Café: Maddermarket 20th March 2013
A Path to a Sustainable Low Carbon Future:The Triple Challenges of Carbon Reduction, Energy Security
and Cost of our Future Energy Supplies
2
Increasing Occurrence of Drought
3
Increasing Occurrence of Flood
Is Global Warming natural or man-made?
Natural causes• Earth’s Orbit• Sunspot Activity• Volcanic Eruptions • Etc.
Reasonable agreement up to ~ 1960
Man-made causes do not show particularly good agreement in early part of period.
BUT including both man- made and natural gives good agreement
5
Arctic Sea Ice Cover 1979 - 2012
• Minimum Summer Sea Ice in 1979 ~ 7.01 million sq km• Red line outlines extent for reference• Minimum Summer Sea Ice in 2012 ~ 3.44 million sq km a loss of 51% in 33 years• Significantly lower in 2012 than average minimum• Source http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-seaicemin.html
Approximate Carbon Emission factors during electricity generation including fuel extraction, fabrication and transport.
6
Impact of Electricity Generation on Carbon Emissions.
Fuel Approx emission factor Comments
Coal 900 – 1000gDepending on grade and efficiency of power station
Gas 400 – 430gAssuming CCGT – lower value for Yarmouth as it is one of most efficient in Europe
Nuclear 5 – 10g Depending on reactor type
Renewables ~ 0 For wind, PV, hydro
Overall UK ~530gVaries on hour by hour basis depending on generation mix
Embedded carbon from construction is similar for most technologies e.g. wind, nuclear, coal solar PV ~ is somewhat higher gas generation ~ a little less..
7
Energy Security is a potentially critical issue for the UK
Until 2004, the UK was a net exporter of gas. Currently only 50% now provided by UK sources.
Import Gap
In early March 2013, technical issues with pipe line from Norway and restrictions on LNG imports made UK gas supply tight
Reduction because of switch back to coal
8
Energy Security is a potentially critical issue for the UK
Prices are much more volatile since UK is no longer self sufficient in gas.
UK no longer self sufficient
in gas
At 19:00 on 4th March, Electricity was being sold at a loss of over 6p per unit when transmission and distribution cost are included.
Langeled Line from Norway
Oil reaches $130 a barrel
Severe Cold Spells
9
What are causes of price rises in recent years? • Since 2004 Electricity Bills for average household have risen
from ~ £230 to around ~£440 or 90% *
Support for renewables in 2011 was £1.285 billion pounds.
- or an increase of 0.39 p/kWh in retail price of electricity.
• At typical unit prices of 12 – 13p per kWh this represents only a 3% increase in unit charge.
• However wholesale prices had risen from 2p in 2004 to 4.5p per kWh by end of 2012.
* Data from Quarterly Energy Prices from DECC Website
• In the first 70 days of 2013 wholesale price had rose a further 19%
10
What are causes of price rises in recent years?
• The main causes are increasing dependence on imported gas and to a lesser extent profits?? by utility companies??
• Support for Renewables accounts for <<10% of rise in bills
• By 2020 wholesale prices are likely to rise significantly because of increasing dependence on imported gas.
• Prices of cheaper renewables such as onshore wind are coming down and will reduce a further 10+% from first April.
• Offshore wind and Photovoltaics are much more costly and receive twice the support of onshore wind.
• From April 1st Tidal and Wave devices will be receiving 5.5 times the support of onshore wind.
• Nuclear discussion on prices are currently at prices around 15% higher than current total cost of wind.* Data from Quarterly Energy Prices from DECC Website
Carbon sequestration either by burying it or using methanolisation to create a new transport fuel will not be available at scale required until mid 2020s if then
11
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers
Energy Review
2002
9th May 2011 (*)
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (at present 45-
50%)Available now (but gas
is running out)~2p +
8.0p[5 - 11]
nuclear fission (long term)
0 - 15% (France 80%) - (currently 18% and
falling)
new inherently safe designs - some
development needed2.5 - 3.5p
7.75p [5.5 - 10]
nuclear fusion unavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest not until
2050 for significant impact
"Clean Coal"Coal currently ~40% but
scheduled to fall
Available now: Not viable without Carbon
Capture & Sequestration
2.5 - 3.5p
[7.5 - 15]p - unlikely
before 2025
* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
In
sta
lled
Ca
pa
cit
y (
MW
)
New Build ?
ProjectedActual
Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2020.
?
12
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Future prices from
* Renewable Energy Review – 9th May 2011 Climate Change Committee
1.5MW TurbineAt peak output provides sufficient electricity for 3000 homes – operating for 12 years
On average has provided electricity for 700 – 850 homes depending on year
~8.2p +/- 0.8p
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and
drivers/barriers
2002 (Gas ~ 2p)
May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) *
On Shore Wind~25% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines]
available now for commercial exploitation
~ 2+p
13
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
~8.2p +/- 0.8p
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and
drivers/barriers
2002 (Gas ~ 2p)
May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) *
On Shore Wind~25% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines]
available now for commercial exploitation
~ 2+p
Scroby Sands has a Load factor of 28.8% - 30% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 2/3rds of demand of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich
Climate Change Committee (9th May 2011) see offshore wind as being very expensive and recommends reducing planned expansion by 3 GW and increasing onshore wind by same amount
Off Shore Wind 25 - 50%some technical
development needed to reduce costs.
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
14
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
~8.2p +/- 0.8p
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and
drivers/barriers
2002 (Gas ~ 2p)
May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) *
On Shore Wind~25% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines]
available now for commercial exploitation
~ 2+p
Off Shore Wind 25 - 50%some technical
development needed to reduce costs.
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at
Itteringham Mill, Norfolk.
Rated capacity 5.5 kW
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified
Hydro (mini - micro)
5%technically mature, but
limited potential2.5 - 3p
11p for <2MW projects
15
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
~8.2p +/- 0.8p
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and
drivers/barriers
2002 (Gas ~ 2p)
May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) *
On Shore Wind~25% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines]
available now for commercial exploitation
~ 2+p
Off Shore Wind 25 - 50%some technical
development needed to reduce costs.
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified
Hydro (mini - micro)
5%technically mature, but
limited potential2.5 - 3p
11p for <2MW projects
Climate Change Report suggests that 1.6 TWh (0.4%) might be achieved by 2020 which is equivalent to ~ 2.0 GW.
Photovoltaic<<5% even
assuming 10 GW of installation
available, but much further research needed to bring down
costs significantly15+ p
25p +/-8 13-15p (2012 projection)
16
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
~8.2p +/- 0.8p
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and
drivers/barriers
2002 (Gas ~ 2p)
May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) *
On Shore Wind~25% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines]
available now for commercial exploitation
~ 2+p
Off Shore Wind 25 - 50%some technical
development needed to reduce costs.
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified
Hydro (mini - micro)
5%technically mature, but
limited potential2.5 - 3p
11p for <2MW projects
Photovoltaic<<5% even assuming
10 GW of installation
available, but much further research needed to bring down costs significantly
15+ p 25p +/-8
Transport Fuels:
• Biodiesel?
• Bioethanol?
• Compressed gas from methane from waste.
To provide 5% of UK electricity needs will require an area the size of Norfolk and Suffolk devoted solely to biomass
Sewage, Landfill, Energy Crops/ Biomass/Biogas
??5% available, but research needed in some areas e.g. advanced gasification
2.5 - 4p7 - 13p
depending on technology
17
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers
2002 (Gas ~ 2p)
May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore Wind
~25% available now ~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p
Off Shore Wind
25 - 50%available but costly
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Small Hydro 5% limited potential 2.5 - 3p11p for <2MW projects
Photovoltaic <<5% available, but very
costly15+ p 25p +/-8
Biomass ??5% available, but research
needed 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p
Wave/Tidal Stream
currently < 10 MW may be
1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%)
technology limited - major development not
before 20204 - 8p
19p +/- 6 Tidal 26.5p
+/- 7.5p Wave
No sound on video
18
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers
2002 (Gas ~ 2p)
May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore Wind
~25% available now ~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p
Off Shore Wind
25 - 50%available but costly
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Small Hydro 5% limited potential 2.5 - 3p11p for <2MW projects
Photovoltaic <<5% available, but very
costly15+ p 25p +/-8
Biomass ??5% available, but research
needed 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p
Wave/Tidal Streamn
currently < 10 MW may be
1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%)
technology limited - major development not
before 20204 - 8p
19p +/- 6 Tidal 26.5p
+/- 7.5p Wave
Video of device
There is no sound to this video, but it demonstrates some of technicalities of the device
Video of device
There is no sound to this video, but it demonstrates some of technicalities of the device
19
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers
2002 (Gas ~ 2p)
May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore Wind
~25% available now ~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p
Off Shore Wind
25 - 50%available but costly
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Small Hydro 5% limited potential 2.5 - 3p11p for <2MW projects
Photovoltaic <<5% available, but very
costly15+ p 25p +/-8
Biomass ??5% available, but research
needed 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p
Wave/Tidal Stream
currently < 10 MW may be
1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%)
technology limited - major development not
before 20204 - 8p
19p +/- 6 Tidal 26.5p
+/- 7.5p Wave
Severn Barrage/ Mersey Barrages have been considered frequently
e.g. pre war – 1970s, 2009
Severn Barrage could provide 5-8% of UK electricity needs
In Orkney – Churchill Barriers
Output ~80 000 GWh per annum - Sufficient for 13500 houses in Orkney but there are only 4000 in Orkney. Controversy in bringing cables south.
Would save 40000 tonnes of CO2
Tidal Barrages 5 - 15%
technology available but unlikely for 2020. Construction time ~10 years.
In 2010 Government abandoned plans for development
26p +/-5
20
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers
2002 (Gas ~ 2p)
May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore Wind
~25% available now ~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p
Off Shore Wind
25 - 50%available but costly
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Small Hydro 5% limited potential 2.5 - 3p11p for <2MW
Photovoltaic <<5% available, but very
costly15+ p 25p +/-8
Biomass ??5% available, but research
needed 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p
Wave/Tidal Stream
currently < 10 MW ??1000 - 2000 MW
(~0.1%)
technology limited - major development not
before 20204 - 8p
19p Tidal 26.5p Wave
Tidal Barrages 5 - 15%In 2010 Government abandoned
plans for development26p +/-5
Geothermal unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be
confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity
21
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers
2002 (Gas ~ 2p)
May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore Wind
~25% available now ~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p
Off Shore Wind
25 - 50%available but costly
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Small Hydro 5% limited potential 2.5 - 3p11p for <2MW
Photovoltaic <<5% available, but very
costly15+ p 25p +/-8
Biomass ??5% available, but research
needed 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p
Wave/Tidal Stream
currently < 10 MW ??1000 - 2000 MW
(~0.1%)
technology limited - major development not
before 20204 - 8p
19p Tidal 26.5p Wave
Tidal Barrages 5 - 15%In 2010 Government abandoned
plans for development26p +/-5
Geothermal unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be
confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity
22
Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass?. Photovoltaics are mature but much more expensive than on shore wind.
Tidal and wave are not options for next 10 - 15 years except as demonstration projects. [technically immature ]
If our answer is NO
Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ?
Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks?
If our answer is NO
Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly
• unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY – confirmed by Climate Change Committee
[9th May 2011]If our answer to coal is NO
Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>
Our Choices: They are difficult
23
Our Choices: They are difficult
If our answer is YES
By 2020 • we will be dependent on GAS
for around 70% of our heating and electricity
imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria
Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>If not:
We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.
Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field?
Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?
Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.
We must take a coherent integrated approach in our decision making – not merely be against one technology or another
24
Our looming over-dependence on gas for electricity generation
Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030.
Existing Coal
Existing Nuclear
Oil
Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
TW
H (b
illio
ns o
f uni
ts (k
Wh)
)
Existing Coal
UK GasImported Gas
New Nuclear?
New Coal
Existing Nuclear
Other Renewables
Offshore Wind
Onshore Wind
Oil
• 1 new nuclear station completed each year after 2020.• 1 new coal station with CCS each year after 2020• 1 million homes fitted with PV each year from 2020 - 40% of homes fitted by 2030 • 15+ GW of onshore wind by 2030 cf 4 GW now
Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030.
• No electric cars or heat pumps
Version suitable for Office 2003, 2007 & 2010
25
How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?
5 hot air balloons per person per year.
On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.
"Nobody made a greater mistake
than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little."
Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)
Raising Awareness
26
Raising Awareness
• A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m.
• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon.
• Standby on electrical appliances up to 20 - 150+ kWh a year - 7500 balloons. (up to £15 a year)
• A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year ~ 500 balloons each year.
• Filling up with petrol (~£55 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon)
How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour?
1.6 miles
At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai
上海徐汇区高第一小学
• A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.
School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya
27
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
kWh
in p
erio
d
No of people in household
Electricity Consumption
1 person2 people3 people4 people5 people6 people
• Social Attitudes have a profound effect on actual electricity consumption
• For a given size of household electricity consumption for appliances [NOT HEATING or HOT WATER or COOKING] can vary by as much as 9 times.
Data courtesy of Karla Alcantar
• Significant savings in money can arise from effective awareness raising
• When income levels are accounted for, variation is still 6 times
Raising Awareness
28
Pilot Lights £9 per week
Pilot lights
off
Pilot Lights turned off
during week
Awareness in the Local Community
Awareness Raising and Good Record Keeping results in significant savings
St Paul’s Church, Tuckswood
Heated by 3 warm air heaters
New Strategy: pilot lights off throughout summer and used strategically in winter resulted in an annual saving of:5400 kWh of gas; 1030 kg of CO2 ; and a monetary saving of £260Or a percentage saving of 38%
29
Sustainable Options for the future?Energy GenerationSolar thermal - providing hot water - most suitable for domestic installations, hotels and schools – generally less suitable for other businesses
•Solar PV – providing electricity - suitable for all sizes of installation
• Example 2 panel ( 2.6 sqm ) in Norwich – generates 826kWh/year (average over 7 years).
• The more hot water you use the more solar heat you get!
• Renewable Heat Incentive available from Summer 2013
• Area required for 1 kW peak varies from ~ 5.5 to 8.5 sqm depending on technology and manufacturer
• Approximate annual estimate of generation
= installed capacity * 8760 * 0.095
hours in year load/capacity factor of 9.5%
30
Options available for the HouseholderEnergy Generation•Micro Wind - roof mounted turbines
•Mini Wind - mast mounted turbines – can be good as long as well clear of buildings, trees, etc – can be a good option for farms
Building Mounted - ~ 1kW machines ~ generally poor performance because of turbulence except in a few locationsNot generally recommended
Mast mounted away from buildings - 6kW Potential output 6000 – 10000 kWh depending on location
Vertical Axis machine – better in turbulence
31
How Variable is Wind Energy?70% of Wind Output is now Visible to National Grid
Predictions are made 2 days and 1 day in advance and demonstrate a correlation comparable with the prediction of demand variations.
Prediction made mid-afternoon for next 48 hoursPrediction made 1 day later and typically for output 24 hours in advanceActual Output in last week of January 2012
32
How Variable is Wind Energy?
Over 8700 Data points covering whole of 2012 Coefficient of Correlation 0.96
33
Options available for Communities/Householders
Energy Generation•Onshore Wind - sensible for community schemes – e.g. Orkney, Germany, Denmark etc – the cheapest form of renewable energy
• Biomass boilers - can be sensible but need a reliable fuel supply. In cost terms with the proposed Renewable Heat Incentive there are attractions for homes / buildings heated by oil or electricity but not, at present, mains gas.
• Most convenient if running on pellets
• Cheaper with wood chip but more difficult to automate
34
Ground Source: Heat Pumps
~ twice floor area of building is required for heat collection.Best performance with under floor heating to ensure difference between heat supply and source temperature is as low as possible.
Zones of building can be controlled via a manifold
Options available for heating buildings– Heat Pumps
35
Heat pumps run off electricity
For a well designed ground source heat pump system:
•Typically 3.5 – 4 as much heat is produced as electricity consumed – the Coefficient of Performance (COP).
•If a buffer tank is included in system, then off peak electricity can be used to heat store overnight – minimising use of full rate electricity.
Air source heat pumps require external fan system, and are not as efficient as air temperature is low when most heat is needed.
Retro fitting with existing radiators will lead to poor COP, but could be improved by fitting double radiators and/or a buffer tank
Options available for the Householder – Heat PumpsOptions available for heating buildings– Heat Pumps
36
Micro CHP
Replaces normal boiler
Provides heat and electricity – would normally run on gas
Currently there are incentives under the Feed In Tariff.
Options available for heating buildings– CHP Pumps
• To be eligible to claim for any Incentive the installation must be installed by a registered MCS installer.
• Certificate of installation must be presented at time of registration.
All microgeneration Installations such as solar, wind, biomass, heat pumps, CHP
must be MCS Accredited
37
1.33 billion people
0.94 billion people
Raw materials
1.03 billion people
Products: 478 M
tonnes
CO 2 increase in
3 years
Aid
& E
du
cation
The Unbalanced Triangular Trade
Each person in Developed Countries has been responsible for an extra 463 kg of CO2 emissions in goods imported from China in just 3 years
Water issues are equally important.
Each tonne of steel imported from a developing country consumes ~ 40 - 50 tonnes of water
Ethical Issues of International Trade
Conclusions: A Strategy for Future Sustainable Energy Supply
Will require:
•Effective Awareness and Energy Management;
•Improved Technology making better use of existing energy;
•Low Carbon Energy Supply – including:
– Cost effective and technically mature renewables
– Nuclear (?)
– Carbon Capture and Sequestration – but this will not be available until mid 2020s on scale required if then.
•Onshore Wind (??? Some biomass) are the most cost effective solution for low carbon energy until at least 2020
•Is becoming increasingly competitive with gas and is on track to become one of the cheapest options by 2020.
•A coherent and rational approach to planning for new energy systems based on evidence rather than emotion.
38
Conclusions and Reflections (1)• Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades
• Energy Security will become increasingly important, particularly in the UK.
• Energy costs are rising mostly from increasing scarcity of traditional fossil fuels (only slightly from current support for renewables)
• Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Insecurity and cost increases more likely in future.
• Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of renewable energy coupled with small changes in behaviour
It is as much about the individual’s response to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take.
or do we ignore these warnings?
39
40
直译):“如果你不改变,你将止步于原地。”Lao Tzu (604-531 BC)
Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher
FINALLY
"If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."
http://www.uea.ac.uk/~e680/cred/cred.htm
This presentation will be available from tomorrow at
Conclusions and Reflections
41
42
Supplementary slides not given in actual presentation at Science Cafe
• Winter: October – March: • Summer: April to September• Compared to 1960 – in 2010,
– 13.1% less heating needed– And 106% more cooling.
Temperature changes: Evidence in East AngliaTemperature rise in East Anglia over last 50 years is unequivocal
Despite particular cold December 2010 in UK – worldwide it was 1st/2nd hottest ever
Data from BMREPORTSChanges in output over 30 minute period for a 12 month periodWindMax: 914 MWMin: – 1051 MWStDev : 37.8 MWNuclearMax: 1630 MWMin: - 877 MWStDev: 39.9MW
How Variable is Wind Energy?
44
It is often argued that Wind Energy is unpredictable?
A single unscheduled trip from Sizewell B Power station has much more impact than variations in wind output.
45
Seeking Effective Low Carbon Solutions for Energy Supply• Small scale solar PV under the Feed in Tariff (@43.3p/kWh)• ~ £700+ per tonne CO2 saved
• Large Scale On-shore wind under Renewable obligation• ~ £90+ per tonne CO2 saved
713 7000 MWh on shore wind generated at an extra cost of £265.4M
Total generated = 361 110 000 MWh: Effective subsidy = 0.07p / kWh ~ 0.6% on domestic bills or ~2% with all renewables considered
Compared to rises of 20%+ mostly from increases in fossil fuelsSubsidy for onshore wind is being cut by 10% in near future
• Cavity Insulation• ~ <<£20 per tonne CO2 saved
• There will be an increased demand for electricity in a future which promotes conservation of energy! - heat pumps – electric vehicles
• Effective Energy Management can often be cost negative in terms of CO2 saved.
• An effective strategy will focus on most cost effective solutions both in the short term and long term.
Data from Digest of UK Energy Statistics 2011
46
Alternative Strategies for Financing• Consumer purchases system and benefits from both reduction in
imported electricity and Feed In Tariff – suitable for both domestic and commercial properties for those who are capital rich but income poor.
• Company pays for and installs system and claims the Feed In Tariff – the owner of land benefits from reduced energy bills – for those with limited capital and less concerned with income.
• Schemes exist for • small wind – e.g. Windcrop who offer 5kW turbines which are less
affected by planning issues • Domestic/community PV up to 50kW
Images courtesy of WindCropHonningham Thorpe, Norfolk
47
March 4, 2013 7:17 pmUK natural gas prices reach seven-year highBy Guy Chazan
UK natural gas prices soared on Monday to their highest in seven years, as problems at a gas processing plant in Norway squeezed supplies and raised fears of higher household energy bills.
The spike in prices underscored Britain’s growing reliance on gas from Norway and the lack of availability of liquefied natural gas imports from countries such as Qatar. It came with gas storage levels heavily depleted because of below-average winter temperatures.
Energy Security is a potentially critical issue for the UK
48
What are component parts of Electricity Prices?
Actual cost of generating electricity at power station – including fuel costs – varies on 30 minute basis.Average to date in 2012 ~ 4.5 p/kWh + max 10.9 p/kWh [Saturday 11th Feb 18:00] min 2.8 p/kWh
Distribution Charges by UK Power Networks** equivalent to overall charge of ~ 1.95 p/ kWh to domestic consumers
Transmission Network Charges by National Grid Company. In East Anglia 3.63p / kWh (North of Scotland 1.48p/kWh - South West 4.23 p/kWh)*
+ From ELEXON Website – weighted average 30min figure* National Grid Charging Statement April 2012** UK Power Networks Charging Statement October 2011
~10p
• Charges by Meter Reader [e.g. Siemens]• Admin and billing by Electricity Supplier – e.g.
E.ON, nPower etc.• Profit for Electricity Supplier
Retail Price of Electricity in range 12 – 28p /kWh – often two rates – more expensive for first units – cheaper thereafter.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Mean |External Temperature (oC)
En
ergy
Con
sum
pti
on (
kW
h/d
ay)
Original Heating Strategy New Heating Strategy
Good Management at UEA has reduced Energy Requirements in a low energy by over 50%
800
350
Space Heating Consumption reduced by 57%
原始供热方法 新供热方法 49
Electricity Consumption in an Office Building in East Anglia
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct
2003 2004 2005
Co
ns
um
pti
on
(k
Wh
)
• Consumption rose to nearly double level of early 2005.
• Malfunction of Air-conditioning plant.
• Extra fuel cost £12 000 per annum ~£1000 to repair fault
• Additional CO2 emitted ~ 100 tonnes.
Low Energy Lighting Installed
50