1 The NK Conflict: A systems view of where actors sit on issues and the impact of finding a solution Dr. Michael Baranick National Defense University January

1

The NK Conflict: A systems view of where actors sit on issues and the

impact of finding a solution

Dr. Michael Baranick

National Defense University

January 14, 2007

2

Agenda

• Overview of Black Sea Conflicts

• Senturion Methodology

• Detailed Baseline Results

• Summary of Findings

• Conclusion

3

AgendaOverview

EU Membership - Stable

Supporting Conflict & Peace - N-K, S. Ossetia, Abkhazia

Multiple Low-Level Conflicts - Cyprus, Kurdish uprising, Armenian Genocide

Gas pipelines - Leverage

4

Approach

• Senturion uses input data from subject matter experts (SMEs) to:

• Frame the issues

• Identify stakeholders’ position, influence, and importance

• Applies game theory, decision theory, and spatial bargaining models to simulate:

• Evolving stakeholder relationships

• Formation of potential coalitions

• Impacts of changes in environment

• Utility of the model:

• Visual representation of complex situations

• Provides a forum to discuss the nature of dispute and to mediate compromise

• Provides insights into complex decision making

Senturion Methodology

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• Senturion has been used to analyze Nagorno-Karabakh related issues since August 2005.

• SMEs have been consulted in Washington, Baku, and Yerevan. The pool of subject matter experts (SMEs) includes academics, think-tanks analysts, Armenians, Azeris, and US government employees.

• To illustrate the application of Senturion modeling to this problem, this briefing summarizes separate studies conducted in September 2006 and January 2008 regarding the dispute over the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

• These results are based on data collected from both Armenian and Azerbaijani sources on over 140 distinct stakeholders.

BackgroundSenturion Methodology

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Senturion Issue Analyzed

• Analyses focus on stakeholder behavior and political interaction around a range of possible outcomes.

• This study focuses on the following continuum:

Senturion Methodology

N-K part of AZ w/ no autonomy

NK joins Armenia w/

territories

0 10 35 50 70 80 85 90 100

N-K part of AZ w/ limited autonomy & security guarantees

N-K part of AZ w/ full

autonomy & security

guarantees

N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy, security guarantees, & Lachin corridor

SQ: NK w/ provisional

status under Armenia

NK Indepstatus w/

Lachin

NK Indepstatus w/ Lachin & territories

7

Detailed Baseline Senturion AnalysisSeptember 2006 & January 2008 Studies

8

• The following slides provide a visualization of the modeled results:

• The first graph details the current positions of stakeholders from both the Azerbaijani and Armenian perspectives.

• The second graph details the forecasted positions of stakeholders at the conclusion of bargaining.

• This allows us to analyze how this situation will unfold.

Azerbaijani & Armenian Positions

9

Current Positions: Azerbaijani Perspective (Sept06 Study)

Azerbaijani Stakeholders

Armenian Stakeholders

N-K Stakeholders


NK joins Armenia w/

territories


N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy & security

guarantees


SQ: NK w/ provisional status

under Armenia

NK Indepstatus w/

Lachin

NK Indep w/ Lachin & territories


NK joins Armenia w/

territories



guarantees



under Armenia

NK Indepstatus w/

Lachin


Current Positions: Armenian Perspective (Jan08 Study)



N-K Stakeholders

Abiyev

Sadiqov

Pashayev

Mahmudov

Usubov

Rasizade

Aliyev

Mammadyarov

Ter-Petrosian

Sarkisian

GukasianOhanianBabayan

KocharianOskanian

Dashnak Party (NK)

Margaryan

Dashnak Party (ARM)

Pashayev

Abiyev Mahmudov

Usubov

Rasizade

AliyevTer-Petrosian

Sahakyan

Hakobyan

Kocharian

NK Dashnak

PartyARM

Dashnak Party

Sarkisian

Petrosian

Oskanian

Haroutunyan

9Sadiqov Mammadyarov

Forecasted Positions: Azerbaijani Perspective (Sept06 Study)



N-K Stakeholders


NK joins Armenia w/

territories



guarantees



under Armenia

NK Indepstatus w/

Lachin



NK joins Armenia w/

territories



guarantees



under Armenia

NK Indepstatus w/

Lachin


Forecasted Positions: Armenian Perspective (Jan08 Study)



N-K Stakeholders

Pashayev

Abiyev Mahmudov

Usubov

Rasizade

Aliyev

Ter-Petrosian

Gukasian

Ohanian

Kocharian

Dashnak Party (NK)

Dashnak Party (ARM)

SarkisianBabayan

Oskanian

Margaryan

Sadiqov

Pashayev

Abiyev

MahmudovUsubov

Rasizade

AliyevTer-Petrosian

Sahakyan

Hakobyan

Kocharian

NK Dashnak Party

ARM Dashnak Party

Sarkisian

Petrosian

Oskanian

Haroutunyan

Sadiqov

Mammadyarov

11

• Senturion analysis indicates that Azerbaijani sources perceive the current political landscape as highly segmented.

– Over time, the forecast reveals that a majority of Azerbaijani elites will move close to supporting the provisional status.

– They also expect Armenia & Karabakh elites to form a consensus around an independent state with a corridor through Lachin.

• On the other hand, analysis based on Armenian sources shows the stakeholders on all sides adopting disparate positions across the political landscape.

• Armenia elites are also forecasted to expected to move decisively in support of the provisional status.

• Meanwhile, Azerbaijan is expected to remain steadfast in demanding Karabakh’s re-annexation.

Summary of Findings (Sept 2006 Study)Summary of Findings

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• Analysis demonstrates a bias on both sides towards their own proclivity for agreement. Sadly, regardless of how Senturion modeling is framed (between Azerbaijani & Armenian sources), the elites on all sides are either (1) on the verge of a peaceful solution or (2) oceans apart.

• This finding underscores the need for direct dialogue between the parties to the conflict.

• Senturion modeling can also be used to test potential COAs and attempt to find feasible compromises

• Identify obstacles to agreement

• Evaluate ways to mitigate the influence of potential obstacles

Next StepsConclusion

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14

Detailed Baseline Senturion Analysis(September 2006 Study)

Current Positions: Armenian & Azerbaijani Stakeholders



N-K Stakeholders


NK joins Armenia w/

territories



guarantees

N-K part of AZ w/ full autonomy, security guarantees, & Lechin corridor


under Armenia

NK Indepstatus w/

Lechin

NK Indep w/ Lechin & territories

Radical Vets

NRM

Abiyev

Mammadov

AZ Community in ARM

Gulluzadeh

Abbasov

Sadiqov

Pashayev

Mahmudov

Usubov

MutilibovRasizade

Aliyev

Mekhtiyev

Mammadyarov

Azimov

Ter-Petrosian

Republic Party

Heritage PartyLiberal

Progressive Party

Sarkisian

Gukasian

Ohanian

Babayan

Kocharian

Oskanian

Nat’l Assembly

Speaker

Dashnak Party (NK)

Margaryan

Dashnak Party (ARM)

15


NK joins Armenia w/

territories



guarantees



under Armenia

NK Indepstatus w/

Lechin




N-K Stakeholders

Radical Vets

NRMMammadov

AZ Community in ARM

Pashayev Hasanov

Abiyev

Gulluzadeh

NamazovAbbasov

Sadiqov MahmudovUsubov

Mutilibov

Rasizade

AliyevMekhtiyev

Azimov

Ter-PetrosianRepublic PartyHeritage Party

Liberal Progressive Party

Gukasian

Ohanian

Kocharian

Dashnak Party (NK)

Dashnak Party (ARM)

Sarkisian

Gagic & Zarubian Oligarchy

Babayan

OskanianNat’l Assembly

SpeakerMargaryan

16

Forecasted Positions: Armenian & Azerbaijani Stakeholders

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• Currently, Russia, Iran, and the OSCE support the current provisional status.

• On the other hand, Turkey strongly supports Azerbaijani claims.

• The OSCE is expected to make a small shift towards granting N-K independent status.

• All other foreign groups, except Russia, are likely to offer compromises in response.

• Ultimately, despite OSCE support for independent status, Russia, Iran, and Turkey will remain opposed to any resolution of the conflict.

International Stakeholder Positions

Current Positions: International Stakeholders


NK joins Armenia w/

territories



guarantees



under Armenia

NK Indepstatus w/

Lechin


US Stakeholders

Turkish Stakeholders

Iranian Stakeholders

OSCE Stakeholders

Russian. Stakeholders

Grey Wolf

Iran AZ Community

Turkey Govt

Turkey Military

Obali

Turkish Opp. To ARM open border

Turkish Business. For ARM open border

Russian Oil Companies

Cheney

DOD

NSC

DOE


BushRice

BryzaAhmadinejad

IRGCRafsanjani

OSCE

KhameneiPutin

Russian FMIranian Military

Russian FSBSurkov

Medvedev

Kasprzyk

Rushaylo

Russian MoD

State Duma

AAA

ARMPro-Indepw/ Russia

Kirkorian

ANCA

Pro-IndependenceARM Lobby

Iran-ARM Community

18

US ARM Amb

19


NK joins Armenia w/

territories



guarantees



under Armenia

NK Indepstatus w/

Lechin


Forecasted Positions: International Stakeholders

US Stakeholders



OSCE Stakeholders


Grey Wolf

Iran AZ Community Turkey Govt

Turkey Military

Obali

Turkish Opp. To ARM open border


Cheney

DOD

NSC

DOE


Bush

Rice

Bryza

AhmadinejadIRG

Rafsanjani

OSCE

KhameneiPutin

Russian FM

Iranian Military

Russian FSBSurkov

Medvedev

KasprzykRushaylo

Russian MoD

State Duma

ARM US Lobby

Russia-ARM Diaspora

Kirkorian

ANCA

AAA

Iran-ARM Community

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US ARM Amb

20

COA Analysis

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• COA 1 – US Backs Armenian Position

• No substantive progress expected to occur

• COA 2 – US Backs Azerbaijani Position

• No substantive progress expected to occur

• A variety of bargaining strategies were explored without substantive progress.

• Collaboration with Armenians and Azerbaijanis could identify potential targets for further COA testing.

Summary of COA Analysis

COA 1 – US Backs Armenia: Armenian & Azerbaijani Reactions


NK joins Armenia w/

territories



guarantees



under Armenia

NK Indepstatus w/

Lechin




N-K Stakeholders

US Stakeholders

Radical Vets

NRM

Abiyev

Mammadov

AZ Community in ARM

Gulluzadeh

Abbasov

Sadiqov

Pashayev

Mahmudov

Usubov

MutilibovRasizade

Aliyev

Mekhtiyev

Mammadyarov

Azimov

Ter-Petrosian

Republic Party


Progressive Party

Sarkisian

Gukasian

Ohanian

Babayan

KocharianOskanian

Nat’l Assembly

Speaker

Dashnak Party (NK)Margaryan

Dashnak Party (ARM)

Cheney

DOD

NSC

DOERice

Bryza

ARM US Lobby

Kirkorian

ANCAAAA

US ARM Amb

Bush


NK joins Armenia w/

territories



guarantees



under Armenia

NK Indepstatus w/

Lechin


Forecasted COA 1 Positions: Armenian & Azerbaijani Reactions



N-K Stakeholders

US Stakeholders

Radical Vets

NRM

Abiyev

Mammadov

AZ Community in ARM

Gulluzadeh

Abbasov

Sadiqov

Pashayev

Mahmudov

Usubov

Mutilibov

Rasizade

Aliyev

Mekhtiyev

Mammadyarov

Azimov

Ter-Petrosian

Republic PartyHeritage Party

Liberal Progressive

Party

Sarkisian

Gukasian

Ohanian

Babayan

Kocharian

Oskanian

Nat’l Assembly

Speaker

Dashnak Party (NK)

Margaryan

Dashnak Party (ARM)

Cheney

DOD

NSC

DOERice

Bryza

ARM US Lobby

Kirkorian

ANCA

AAA

US ARM Amb

Bush

Bush

COA 1 – US Backs Armenia: Armenian & Azerbaijani ReactionsN-K part of AZ w/ no autonomy

NK joins Armenia w/

territories



guarantees



under Armenia

NK Indepstatus w/

Lechin



NK joins Armenia w/

territories



guarantees



under Armenia

NK Indepstatus w/

Lechin



24



N-K Stakeholders

US Stakeholders



N-K Stakeholders

US Stakeholders

Sadiqov

PashayevMahmudov

Rasizade

Aliyev

Mammadyarov

Azimov

Ter-Petrosian

Sarkisian

Gukasian

Ohanian

Babayan

KocharianOskanian


Dashnak Party (ARM)DOD

Rice

Bryza

Kirkorian

AAA

Abiyev

Sadiqov

PashayevMahmudov

Rasizade

Aliyev

Mammadyarov

Azimov

AbiyevTer-Petrosian

Sarkisian

Gukasian

Ohanian

Babayan

Kocharian

Oskanian


Dashnak Party (ARM)

DODRice

Bryza

KirkorianAAA

Bush

Bush

COA 2 – US Backs Azerbaijan: Armenian & Azerbaijani Reactions


NK joins Armenia w/

territories



guarantees



under Armenia

NK Indepstatus w/

Lechin




N-K Stakeholders

US Stakeholders

Radical Vets

NRM

Abiyev

Mammadov

AZ Community in ARM

Gulluzadeh

Abbasov

Sadiqov

Pashayev

Mahmudov

Usubov

MutilibovRasizade

Aliyev

Mekhtiyev

Mammadyarov

Azimov

Ter-Petrosian

Republic Party


Progressive Party

Sarkisian

Gukasian

Ohanian

Babayan

KocharianOskanian

Nat’l Assembly

Speaker


Dashnak Party (ARM)

Cheney

DOD

NSC

DOERice

Bryza

ARM US LobbyKirkorian

ANCA

AAA

US ARM Amb

Bush


NK joins Armenia w/

territories



guarantees



under Armenia

NK Indepstatus w/

Lechin





N-K Stakeholders

US Stakeholders

Radical Vets

NRM

Abiyev

Mammadov

AZ Community in ARM

Gulluzadeh

Abbasov

SadiqovPashayev

MahmudovUsubov

Mutilibov

Rasizade

Aliyev

Mekhtiyev

Mammadyarov

Azimov

Republic Party

Heritage Party

Liberal Progressive

Party

Sarkisian

Gukasian

OhanianBabayan

Kocharian

Oskanian

Nat’l Assembly

Speaker

Dashnak Party (NK)

Margaryan

Dashnak Party (ARM)

Cheney

DOD

NSC

Rice

Bryza

ARM US Lobby

Kirkorian

ANCA

AAA

US ARM Amb

Bush

Ter-Petrosian

DOE

COA 2 – US Backs Azerbaijan: Armenian & Azerbaijani ReactionsN-K part of AZ w/ no autonomy

NK joins Armenia w/

territories



guarantees



under Armenia

NK Indepstatus w/

Lechin



NK joins Armenia w/

territories



guarantees



under Armenia

NK Indepstatus w/

Lechin





N-K Stakeholders

US Stakeholders



N-K Stakeholders

US Stakeholders

Abiyev

Sadiqov

Pashayev

Mahmudov

Rasizade

Aliyev

Mammadyarov

Ter-Petrosian

Sarkisian

Gukasian

Ohanian

Babayan

KocharianOskanian


Dashnak Party (ARM)

DOD

Rice

Bryza

Kirkorian

US ARM Amb

Bush

Abiyev

SadiqovPashayev

Mahmudov

Rasizade

Aliyev

Mammadyarov

Sarkisian

Gukasian

Ohanian

Babayan

Kocharian

Oskanian

Dashnak Party (NK)

Margaryan

Dashnak Party (ARM)

DOD

Rice

Bryza Kirkorian

AAA

US ARM Amb

BushTer-Petrosian

28

29

Current Positions: Azeri Perspective on International Stakeholders (Sept 2006 Study)


NK joins Armenia w/

territories



guarantees



under Armenia

NK Indepstatus w/

Lechin



NK joins Armenia w/

territories



guarantees



under Armenia

NK Indepstatus w/

Lechin


Current Positions: Armenian Perspective on International Stakeholders (Jan 2008 Study)

US Stakeholders



OSCE Stakeholders


US Stakeholders



OSCE Stakeholders


Turkey Govt

Turkey Military

Russian Oil CompaniesDOD Bush

Rice

Bryza

Ahmadinejad

IRGC

OSCE

KhameneiPutin


KasprzykRussian MoD

Kirkorian

ANCA

AAA

Turkey Govt

Turkey Military


DOD

BushRice

Bryza

Ahmadinejad

IRGC

KhameneiPutin


Kasprzyk

Russian MoD

Kirkorian

ANCAAAA

29

OSCE

30

Forecasted Positions: Azeri Perspective on International Stakeholders (Sept 2006 Study


NK joins Armenia w/

territories



guarantees



under Armenia

NK Indepstatus w/

Lechin



NK joins Armenia w/

territories



guarantees



under Armenia

NK Indepstatus w/

Lechin


Forecasted Positions: Armenian Perspective on International Stakeholders (Jan 2008 Study)

US Stakeholders



OSCE Stakeholders


US Stakeholders



OSCE Stakeholders


Turkey Govt

Turkey Military

Russian Oil CompaniesDOD Bush

Rice

Bryza

Ahmadinejad

IRGC

OSCE

KhameneiPutin


KasprzykRussian MoD

Kirkorian

ANCA

AAA

Turkey Govt

Turkey Military


DOD

BushRice

Bryza

Ahmadinejad

IRGC

KhameneiPutin


Kasprzyk

Russian MoD

Kirkorian

ANCAAAA

30

OSCE

Documents

1 The NK Conflict: A systems view of where actors sit on issues and the impact of finding a solution Dr. Michael Baranick National Defense University January