Modeling Drivers of Rebellion

National Defense UniversityCenter for Technology and National Security Policy

Dr. Michael Baranick, Senior Research FellowJohn Applebaugh, Research Associate

Rebellions/Uprising

• Occur more often in weak states – low infrastructural power or high despotic power

• Often are a struggle between those that want change and those that prefer the status quo Access to jobs Equal rights Land Modernization versus Traditionalism

• Uprisings against the government can turn to rebellion. Successful rebellion bring about revolutions

• Recent Examples: Tunisia Egypt Libya Bahrain Iran

Population

Economy

Government

Economic Elite

Political Elite

Internal Stable State

Components of the State

• The Government Ensures the 10 functions of the State (next slide) Address concerns of population, adjudicate grievances Influence the economy – regulation, management, taxation, etc.

• The Population Provide laborers and consumers for the economy Bring concerns and grievances to the government Strong national identity in stable states

• The Economy Licit Illicit: Corruption, Smuggling, Criminality (more prevalent in weak states)

• Elites Economic Elites

Business Owners, Landlords, etc. Political Elites

Formal or Informal connections to the members of the government

The 10 Functions of the State

1. Legitimate Monopoly on the means of violence2. Administrative Control3. Management of public finances4. Investment in human capital5. Delineation of citizenship rights and duties6. Provision of infrastructure services7. Formation of the market8. Management of the state’s assets (incl. the environment, natural

resources, and cultural assets)9. International relations (incl. entering into international contract and

public borrowing)10. Rule of law

Population

Economy

GovernmentExternal Actors

Economic Elite

Political Elite

Internal/External Stable State

External Actors

• Actors outside the state• Directly and indirectly influence the state• Positive and negative influences

Positive: Trade improves economy, increases well-beingNegative: Invasions impact the economy, government, and

population• External Actors, e.g.: terrorist/militant groups, the

international community/interventionist states, NGOs and IOs

Population

GovernmentExternal Actors

Economic Elite

Political Elite

Refugees &

Diasporas

Dissident Group

Neutral Group

Loyal Group

Economy

State in Conflict

States in Conflict

• Start with the Population petitioning the Government to change laws, improve equality, improve opportunities, etc.

• Government respondsAddressing the Population by changing the status quo

Must not be overwhelming controlled by elites, who have the most to lose from such changes

Or, Government punishes the Population through the use of force• Population divides

Loyalists, who support the Government in powerDissidents or Rebels, who want significant changes to the Government

or the creation of a new governmentA large neutral group, who chose not to show support for either side

(initially)

States in Conflict

• Dissidents either: Continue non-violent activities to undermine the legitimacy of the

Government, or Pursue violent activities as a guerrilla movement to force change

• Additionally, Dissidents can either: Seek the support of the rest of population, which makes them more

responsive to the needs of the population Or, seek outside assistance, which brings the interests External Actors into

the conflict Rebellions that rely on outside support often increase the duration and intensity of

the conflict• Refugees and Diasporas can influence the conflict

Influence over the population Influence over external actors Influence over the economy

Resources for State Building

Resources for post-revolutionary consolidation• The Civil Service and Military

Civil Service and military of old regime can be a resource if they were impersonal bureaucracies – not based on patrimony.

• Human and Cultural Capital Human capital: skilled labor is generally unchanged Cultural capital: symbolism and cultural identity to win popular support rather

than have to rely on coercion • Visionary and Pragmatic Leadership

Need for both types of leadership• External Actors

Can be provide national frameworks or material support; sometimes are a threat to post-revolutionary states

Population

Economy

GIRoAExternal Actors

Economic Elite

Political Elite

Refugees &

Diasporas

InsurgentsNeutral Group

Loyal Group

Licit Illicit

Afghanistan

Afghanistan

• The Government of Islamic Republic of Afghanistan does not have the capacity to provide the 10 functions of the state. Reliance on ISAF for security and the aid community for development/economic input Government does not reach all areas

Un-governed space allows insurgents opportunity to create alternative government• Licit domestic economy is small compared to international aid and illicit economic

activity Corruption Smuggling Drug-lords The Economic “Elite” are tied to illicit activities, which makes meaningful change difficult

• Population is divided: most are stuck in-between. Choosing sides means risking death. Additionally, no strong national identity – many various tribes, clans, etc.

• The presence of ISAF and aid organizations have created dependency within the population. The population is more likely to petition ISAF and aid organizations than GIRoA.

• Sanctuaries and support from Pakistan prolong the conflict and contribute to violence against civilians by the insurgents, who don’t have to consider the needs of the population as much.

Summary

• Uprisings occur when there is an un-meet need within the Population, causing the Population to petition the Government

• The Government, because of elites, weakness, or external actors may not adequately address the concerns of the Population – which leads to rebellion

• Rebellions can persist and intensify under the pressure of external actors, influence of elites, or the limited capacity of the Government