1 The role of ECMWF products in the optimisation of operational processes at KNMI Janneke Ottens Head Forecasting Division Thanks to: Robert Mureau, Kees

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The role of ECMWF products in the optimisation of operational processes at KNMI

Janneke OttensHead Forecasting DivisionThanks to: Robert Mureau, Kees Lemcke, Marcel Molendijk, Nico Maat, Ben Wichers-Schreur, Albert Jacobs, and Hans Roozekrans

ECMWF user meeting,14-16 June 2006

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Content

• Part IECMWF /EPS derived products linked to optimisation– Severe weather– Water management board risk profiles– Water level management/wind surge

• Part IIRestructuring of operational processes– The 5 Points Program

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ECMWF /EPS derived products linked to optimisation

Severe weather:• Criteria linked to warnings:

– Weather alarms (general public)– Warnings for special groups (maritime, aviation, ……. )– Special warnings/advice for (other) ministries

• Critria linked to fcst period– Warning (12-24 hrs) – Weather alarm (0-12 hrs)

• First guess table: First guess medium range forecast ( including error margins )

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Severe weather:• Now new weather alarms• Yes or no, not good enough for all warning types

• Early Warnings (24 - 240 hrs) : probabilities• Warnings (12-24 hrs) : subjective probabilities• Weather alarm (0-12 hrs) : yes or no

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Water management board risk profiles:

Alert System input• Precipitation History based on radar images

• Short Range: Hirlam 22 km model

• Beyond +36 h: EPS

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Water management board risk profiles:

• 37 Water Boards in the Netherlands• 5 participated in pilot project• Water Boards are responsible for:

– flood control, – water quantity, – water quality – treatment of urban wastewater

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Input from waterboards• “Risk Profiles” = set of thresholds• Example: 50 mm within 72 hours – probability 33% • Several ranges possible• The specified ranges can include history

Alert System• If forecast or history+forecast exceeds threshold:• Automatic E-mail to the involved Water Board(s)• Water Board gets access to our “Extranet”• Forecasters informed and on standby

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Example history - short range

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Example EPS

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Water level management/Wind surge:

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Water level management/Wind surge:

• Shifts are added at the storm surge centre, when critical levels are exeeded

• More frequent updates of fcsts• More frequent contact between fcst office and

storm surge centre

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External use• All these products lead to introduction of

probabilities in forecast products for users

Internal use• Also for the KNMI organisation:

– Enabling more automated production of fcsts/ “scenario”- fcsts

– Enabling more efficient shift-management in the fcst office – so called:weather dependent upscaling in relation to user requirements

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Further use of EPS

• Experiment with prob early warnings on (protected) web site

• Link up to EMMA• Target specific groups with specific “risk profiles”

(each group with its own threshold: e.g. Water Boards, Red Cross, Windsurge)

• Development of heat wave warnings

• Monitor, verify and calibrate

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Part II

Restructuring of operational processesThe 5 Points Program

• Replacement Meteorological Workstation (MWS)• Automated Product generation forecast office• Monitoring & Alerting tools• Nowcasting / Severe weather• Post-processing/editing models or choose a

specific model: Switchfc

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Replacement MWS –P1

• Current situation:

– MWS of 3SI (Spatial Software Solutions Inc, USA)

– Started with Metlab Classic in 1992, operational in 1995

– Migration to Smartwindows (KNMI version Metlab2) (2000-2005)

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Replacement MWS – P1

– Evaluation of NinJo• Version 1.1 with live data soon

(Obs, Satellite, Radar and Models)

– Evaluation of DIANA• Available for download since May 31th

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Replacement MWS – P1

– Specifications new MWS• To be used for evaluation NinJo and DIANA or ITT

– Internal WEB solutions (additional to MWS)• Redesign of current “distributed server solution” :

13 non-operational scientific webservers….

• Now: Mainly maps & animations

• Future: ‘Google Earth/Maps’ solutions ??

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Product generation

• Starting points:

– Better use of existing NWP-model productsand predictability products

– Largely automated production• weather dependent automatic distribution of products• Criteria/ranges based on model output and agreed upon

with users

– Better use of forecasters• less routine production• more advisory function• weather dependent deployment (EPS for internal shift

management)

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Product generation

• Projects:

– Quick Wins: small adaptions existing tools (2005)

– New tools to improve automatic product generation

– New working methods adapted to new production tools

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Product generation/alerting

• Some requirements:

– Pre-defined alert levels for raw data– Pre-defined alert levels for products– Alerts in XML– Filtering of alerts– Visualisation of alerts (dash board)– Link to raw data or products– Possibility for manual interactive editing of products

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data

cu

sto

mers

Forecaster:

1. Check automatic Monitoring2. Check and edit automated product generation3. Manual production4. Manual monitoring

objectivepost-

processing

automated product

generation

automatic monitoring

Yellow data flow not monitored by forecaster

Pilot study

Meteorological Production Process (MPP)

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Trigger Database

Dashboard Forecaster

Information about What? When? Where? Why?

Functionality (a.o.):a) Presentation triggers (filtering) based on:

• Trigger system• Trigger issue time• Trigger kind• Forecasters Area of interest

b) (Connected with) production toolsand detailed information (URL’s)

System X generates triggers:

• Alerts observations, …, …

System Z generates triggers:

• Alerts Automatic Production, …, …

automatic distribution

Manual production/adaption distribution

System Y generates triggers:

• Alerts NWM-models, …, …

XML

DASHBOARD FORECASTER

Dashboard Forecaster

Information about What? When? Where? Why?

Functionality (a.o.):

a)Presentation triggers (filtering) based on:• Trigger system• Trigger issue time• Trigger kind• Forecasters Area of interest

b)(Connected with) production toolsand detailed information (URL’s)

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00 12 24 00 12 24

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Monitoring & Alerting tools

• Meteorological alerts• Timely production• Timely distribution• Verification of models and issued forecasts

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Nowcasting / Severe weather

Projects• Satrep & Eumetrain• Downscaling• Implementation MSG and Cinesat• Innovation radar display

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Eumetrain:

– international project as follow-up Satrep(ZAMG,FMI,UKMO,DWD,KNMI,DMHZ,Eumetsat)

– Development training modules (e-learning) – Update description conceptual models

– KNMI will focus on severe weather

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Downscaling:

• A method for the computation of the local wind flow on scales as small as 500 m to 1 km.

– A very simple two-layer physical model of the Planetary Boundary Layer

– High-resolution topographical information of the surface roughness derived from Geographical Information System (GIS) datasets.

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HIRLAM resolution 22 km Downscaling resolution 1 km

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Polderbaan(18R-36L)

Zwanenburgbaan(18C-36C)

Buitenveldertbaan(09-27)

Kaagbaan(06-24)

Aalsmeerbaan(18L-36R)

Can be used for:

windforecasts at touchdown positions (cross- and tailwind)

wind gusts

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Implementation MSG and Cinesat:

• MSG requires other/more tools to benifit of new data

• Current MWS does not have decicated tools for MSG

• (TM Gepard,Vienna) offers a large range of analysing tools and postprocessing tools.

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• Atmospheric motion fields• Nowcasted (predicted) images• Cloud contour prediction• Predicted trajectories• Cloud development maps• Convective cells and their predicted

trajectories• Upper tropospheric humidity image• Image movies

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Innovation radar display:

• A few years ago KNMI developed a SVG-display

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• What happens, why need for new display?

• More information required:– More GIS info while zooming– Adding road temperature, more lightning facilities,

precipitation type, cumulative precip, higher resolution images etc.

• SVG is not “hot” anymore, not much progress in viewers (e.g. Adobe SVG-viewer)

• Adding more info to existing application too complex and unstable

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How to use/choose models:Switch fc

• Original plan: Model Switch

Model A

Model B

Model ..

Model ..

Model Z

post

processing

products

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How to use/choose models:Switch fc

New plan: Switch fc

• Statistical Weighting of Information Targeted at Combining High-resolution forecasts

A system to combine available deterministic forecasts in an optimal way using the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) technique

39http://bma.apl.washington.edu/

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Role of ECMWF products in optimisation of operational processes

The 5 Points Program should ultimately lead to:

• More efficient production• Better quality products• Easier implementation innovation• More flexibility

The same approach as with EPS for medium range, now also for short range using HIRLAM

Thank you for your attention!

Documents

1 The role of ECMWF products in the optimisation of operational processes at KNMI Janneke Ottens Head Forecasting Division Thanks to: Robert Mureau, Kees