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100409 Role of LNG [Schreibgeschützt] - Climate Policy Initiative · 2016-09-29 · 100409 Role of LNG [Schreibgeschützt] Author: r033251 Created Date: 4/13/2010 11:45:51 AM

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Page 1: 100409 Role of LNG [Schreibgeschützt] - Climate Policy Initiative · 2016-09-29 · 100409 Role of LNG [Schreibgeschützt] Author: r033251 Created Date: 4/13/2010 11:45:51 AM

RWE AG December 2009

The Role of LNG –

RWE’s Experience

Venice, April 15th 2010

Thomas Birr Vice President Group Strategy, RWE AG

Page 2: 100409 Role of LNG [Schreibgeschützt] - Climate Policy Initiative · 2016-09-29 · 100409 Role of LNG [Schreibgeschützt] Author: r033251 Created Date: 4/13/2010 11:45:51 AM

RWE AG 13.04.2010 PAGE 2

RWE Core Markets

Gas

Leading Positions in Core Markets

ElectricityMarket*)

Product

Germany No. 2 No. 3

UK No. 4 No. 4

� No. 2 in Hungary

� No. 3 in

Slovakia

� Active in

Poland

� No. 1 in the Czech

Republic

� Leading position in

Hungary

� Active in Slovakia

Eastern Europe

Total Europe No. 3 No. 6

United Kingdom

Netherlands

Luxembourg

Austria

Hungary

Poland

Slovakia

Czech

Republic

Germany

RWE Group – Who are we?

One of the Top 5 European Utilities…

Electricity Gas Water

*) Market positions of the RWE Group in terms of sales.

NL No. 2 No. 1

Page 3: 100409 Role of LNG [Schreibgeschützt] - Climate Policy Initiative · 2016-09-29 · 100409 Role of LNG [Schreibgeschützt] Author: r033251 Created Date: 4/13/2010 11:45:51 AM

RWE AG 13.04.2010 PAGE 3

…with a growing upstream and LNG position in the

Atlantic Basin

Excalibur

Excelsior

Excellence

Excelerate

Explorer

Express

Exquisite

Expedient

Exemplar (Q3 10)

RWE LNG Fleet

Gulf Gateway

Wilhelmshaven

GasPort

Northeast Gateway

Teesside GasPort

Bahia Blanca GasPort

Mina Al AhmadiGasPort

Snøhvit

GATE

Terminal

RWE Dea upstream activities

LNG production

LNG Terminal – Operational

LNG Terminal under construction / planned

Page 4: 100409 Role of LNG [Schreibgeschützt] - Climate Policy Initiative · 2016-09-29 · 100409 Role of LNG [Schreibgeschützt] Author: r033251 Created Date: 4/13/2010 11:45:51 AM

RWE AG 13.04.2010 PAGE 4

The Future of Gas Markets – What do we believe?

“Evolution”> Economic recovery in the mid-term

> Oligopolistic behaviour of international producers preserves oil-linked pricing being predominant for imports

“Competitive revolution”> Current gas oversupply results in full competition

and gas-to-gas pricing for imports

> Erosion of gas prices to long-run marginal costs

“Climate heaven”> Strict climate policy induces long term

stagnation/decrease of global gas demand

> Predominantly oil-linked import pricing mechanisms

Gas Market Scenarios

Gas spot markets remain volatile and continue to become more liquid in all scenarios

Most likely

Possible

Page 5: 100409 Role of LNG [Schreibgeschützt] - Climate Policy Initiative · 2016-09-29 · 100409 Role of LNG [Schreibgeschützt] Author: r033251 Created Date: 4/13/2010 11:45:51 AM

RWE AG 13.04.2010 PAGE 5

Source: Wood Mackenzie Global Gas Service

Crystallisation of pre-FID LNG projects

China & India demand elasticity

Qatar's sales strategy & tactics

Major pipe exporters sales strategy & tactics

Pace of global economic recovery

Pricing support from coal displacement

Global LNG outages

Pace of production curtailment

LNG connects previously independent gas

regions to a global market

Page 6: 100409 Role of LNG [Schreibgeschützt] - Climate Policy Initiative · 2016-09-29 · 100409 Role of LNG [Schreibgeschützt] Author: r033251 Created Date: 4/13/2010 11:45:51 AM

RWE AG 13.04.2010 PAGE 6

What is the contribution of LNG?

Security of

Supply

Flexibility

> LNG supply is not physically linked to a specific destination

> Ships can be re-routed flexibly, providing options for regional

arbitrage and thus procurement from the cheapest market

> LNG allows diversification of supply sources, e.g. LNG enables supplies from the Middle East to Europe

> No commitment of (mid-/ downstream) infrastructure to one specific

supplier

Access to

gas markets

> Regional markets without access to pipeline gas can be supplied

via LNG with potentially lower capex and lower barriers (e.g.

resulting from international agreements required for pipelines)

Page 7: 100409 Role of LNG [Schreibgeschützt] - Climate Policy Initiative · 2016-09-29 · 100409 Role of LNG [Schreibgeschützt] Author: r033251 Created Date: 4/13/2010 11:45:51 AM

RWE AG 13.04.2010 PAGE 7

0

6

1 2

1 8

2 4

3 0

3 6

J an -0 5 J u l-0 5 J an -0 6 J u l-0 6 J an-0 7 J u l-0 7 J an -0 8 J u l-0 8 J an -0 9

H H

N E G

N B P

“Flexibility becomes the name of the game” –

volatility as key risk and source for value creation

* Northeast Gateway (NEG) price based on 70% Tetco-M3, 30% Algonquin Citygates

Day-ahead US (Henry Hub (HH), Northeast US (NEG*) and UK (NBP) Gas Prices in USD/MMbtu

Early and late winter

cold weather, before

Langeled (new gas

pipeline from Norway)

Hurricane

Katrina

> LNG infrastructure usage can be highly volatile (assuming the absence of long-term commitments)

Transatlantic Arbitrage Potential

Page 8: 100409 Role of LNG [Schreibgeschützt] - Climate Policy Initiative · 2016-09-29 · 100409 Role of LNG [Schreibgeschützt] Author: r033251 Created Date: 4/13/2010 11:45:51 AM

RWE AG 13.04.2010 PAGE 8

On-board regasification is ideally suited for managing volatility and accessing new markets

> Investment of approx

1 Billion €, high fixed

operational costs

> Large space required

> Signficant impact on

environment (e.g. storage)

> Planned lifetime of 25 years

> LNG regasification (through heating) on board of the LNG vessel

> Reduced investments of only 10% of onshore terminals, low

operational costs

> Very limited space requirements

> Reduced infrastructure (e.g. no storage) and reduced

environmental burdens

Gateway GasPort

Onshore Regasification “Excelerate Energy” On-Board Regasification

On-Board Regasification avoids large investments in fixed landing infrastructure and thus allows for economic operations even with

limited utilitisation rate (e.g. seasonal or spot deliveries only)

Page 9: 100409 Role of LNG [Schreibgeschützt] - Climate Policy Initiative · 2016-09-29 · 100409 Role of LNG [Schreibgeschützt] Author: r033251 Created Date: 4/13/2010 11:45:51 AM

RWE AG 13.04.2010 PAGE 9

Innovative infrastructure concepts –Example LNG gas supply to the Middle East

> Project completed August ‘09

> Terminal owned and operated by Kuwait National Petroleum Company

> Excelerate / RWE acts as EPC contractor for entire construction

> Concept to commercial operations in only 24 months

Conventional LNG Carrier

Excelerate EBRV

LNG

Gas

Jetty layout (tandem transfer) at the Mina Al Ahmadi GasPort

Mina Al-Ahmadi (Kuwait) GasPort

> The gas demand varies substantially in Middle East countries over the year – with a winter low and a summer peak

> Even though most countries in the Region remain net-exporters throughout the year, they increasingly depend on gas imports in the summer

> Utilising LNG to meet peak demand represents a flexible, clean and economic solution

Page 10: 100409 Role of LNG [Schreibgeschützt] - Climate Policy Initiative · 2016-09-29 · 100409 Role of LNG [Schreibgeschützt] Author: r033251 Created Date: 4/13/2010 11:45:51 AM

RWE AG 13.04.2010 PAGE 10

Summary

> RWE is an up- and midstream centred gas player with a focus on Europe and the Atlantic Basin

> We believe that liquidity and volatility of gas markets will increase – whatever the precise development of e.g. oil-indexation may be

> LNG connects previously independent regional gas markets

> “Flexibility will become the name of the game” for LNG infrastructure

> RWE has build up a flexible portfolio of mid- and upstream assets

> RWE/Excelerate’s flexible on-board regasification technology is ideally suited

to access new markets at low cost and provides a maximum of flexibility for

any LNG portfolio