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12 October 2000 1
CompactPCI and Telecom
The Potential is Much Larger !!
R. Brough TurnerCTO, Natural MicroSystems
12 October 2000 2
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
TimeTime
1
100
1 K
10 K
100 K
1 M
10 M
100 M
1 G
10
Number of transistors
Moore’s Law
Fiber capacity
1 Mbps
10 Mbps
100 Mbps
1 Gbps
10 Gbps
100 Gbps
1 Tbps
10 Tbps
100 Tbps
Exponential Growth
12 October 2000 3
Source: NBI, NTL’s Consultants
Deregulation
12 October 2000 4
Communications Revolution
Success of the Internet Success of Wireless
• Wireless PDAs• WAP
‘Net-enable the Wireless
• Not just wireless, works for existing access devices
• More natural human interface
Voice-enable the Internet
Wireless Internet330 million wireless Internet users by 2003 (IDC, 6/00)
One billion people, or one out of every six people on Earth will own mobile phones by 2003
(Wall Street Journal 12/99)
62 million users in U.S. today, growing to 158 million in 2005
(Strategis Group 6/00)
12 October 2000 5
Fixed main lines
Cellular subscribers
International Traffic and Main Line Growth
International call minutes
pro
ject
ed
Inte
rnat
ion
al T
elec
om
mu
nic
atio
ns
Tra
ffic
(b
illio
ns
of
min
ute
s)
2,000
1,750
1,500
1,250
1,000
750
500
250
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
200
Wo
rld
wid
e S
ub
scri
ber
s (m
illio
ns)
28.733.5
38.043.2
71.7
48.354.6
61.6
82.593.0
106.0
120.9
137.8
157.1
© TeleGeographyNote: Data include outbound international traffic on public networks only. Projections assume 14% traffic growth, 6% main line growth, and 30% mobile subscriber growth annually. Source: ITU, TeleGeography, Inc.
Global Traffic
12 October 2000 6
15986
298
13083
39266
249
127
481
294
174
275
648
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
$B
illio
n
1999 2004
Enterprise Managed Services
IP
Data
Wireless
Toll Services
Network Access
Local Network Services
CAGR19%63%16%17%10% 8% 9%
Global Spending on Telecom Services ($B)
Renaissance Analysis
$2.3 TRILLION
New Customer Demand…
12 October 2000 7
Capturing the Revenue
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Source: Probe Research,, 2001
VOICE
DATA
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
REVENUEBITS
Source: Probe Research,, 2001
12 October 2000 8
VoDSL Revenues
$0.0
$1.0
$2.0
$3.0
$4.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Residential VoDSL Business VoDSL Overall DSL
SOURCE: PROBE RESEARCH: 2/2000; THE YANKEE GROUP
Voice over DSL
$28M in ‘00; $1B in ’04 => 248% CAGR
12 October 2000 9
Portal
Internet•Email •Unified Messaging•Other Content
•Email •Unified Messaging•Other Content
02468
1012
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
PSTN
IP
Portals
World Wide Enhanced Services Revenue, $B
Sources: Piper Jaffray, 3/99 IDC, 8/99
Other Content
Voice Web/Portals
12 October 2000 10Source: Probe Research, July 1999
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Worldwide IP TelephonyTraffic
Billions of Minutes per Year
CAGR209%
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Worldwide IP Telephony Equipment Market
Annual Revenues in $ Billions
CAGR181%
Explosive Growth
12 October 2000 11
Communications Revolution
Deregulation, competition Technology Network convergence
Telecom & Datacom
Infrastructure, Access and Solutions required Significant investments taking place now
12 October 2000 12* Warren Andrews, Tech Trends Research, 1/2001
Opportunity
Telecom equipment: $300B industry today Growing to $500B by 2003 * Replacing 1.5B phones will take 15-20 years Early stages of major, global investment
12 October 2000 13
* Venture Development Corp.** Tech Trends Research
CompactPCI Success
Tiny market in 1997 ( <$20M* ) All in embedded industrial control (traffic lights…)
$500M* or $900M** in 2000 $1.4B by 2004* or $2B by 2002** Communications is dominant application Communications is where the growth is
12 October 2000 14
But...
Addressing small subset of the market PC-centric and TDM-centric
PC compatibility good for enhanced services; less applicable to pure telecom infrastructure
TDM will be with us for next 20 years, but… growth is in packets and cells
We are minor players in telecom markets!
12 October 2000 15
Next Gen Requirements
Manipulate both connectionless and connection-oriented packet streams
ATM, IP over SONET and Ethernet QoS guarantees
HA - 99.999% service availability substantial software implications
Features first, but density & cost are critical
12 October 2000 16
Characteristics of New Purpose-Built Systems
Autonomous modules shelf controller not involved in the "fast path”
Switched serial interconnect Versus earlier bus-oriented schemes
PCI, ATM Cellbus, TDM, etc. x2-x4 speed-up over interface speeds
12 October 2000 17
CompactPCI(+)*
CompactPCI tradition - leverage mass market technology to solve telecom problems first PCI & PC technology; now Ethernet
Added other services for telecom market Ruggedized, H.110, Hot Swap
Positioning 101 - keep the name CompactPCI but evolve to address broader markets ???
* Lars Larsson, MODT
12 October 2000 18
CompactPCI - Telecom
Support packet & cell transport & switching Improve support for high availability Evolution path for today’s systems
More capacity for H.110 & PCI
Additional form-factor? Minimum set of widely used configurations will
be basis for largest market growth
12 October 2000 19
Beyond PCI
Infiniband (someday - after all SW re-written)
PLX Sebring (evolution path?)
RapidIO (schedule?)
StarFabric (very promising)
Autonomous systems PCI becomes merely the maintenance bus
or gets eliminated entirely…
12 October 2000 20
Beyond H.110
Add serial streams (e.g. NMS PowerAccess Bus)
ATM approaches (scaling?, relatively expensive)
StarFabric with H.110 bridges Eliminate the need for H.110
convert to packets the long term answer, but could be 15 years
12 October 2000 21
Switched Serial Interconnect
Meet internal needs of switches, routers x2-x4 speed-up over external interfaces QoS; support packets and/or cells Highly available CompactPCI evolution would be a plus
PCI bridging; H.110 bridging
12 October 2000 22
Switched Serial Interconnects
Infiniband (can’t wait until 2006…)
ATM Cellbus (but doesn’t scale)
Many other switched serial fabrics IBM Prism, PMC Sierra, more than 5 others PLX Sebring, RapidIO StarFabric (looks desirable)
Ethernet (must have in any event!)
12 October 2000 23
Form-Factors
3U too small (with one exception) 6U was an (fortuitous) accident What about 9U or 7.5U and deeper?
ETSI access multiplexers - no rear module! How many shelves, w/cooling, per rack? How are optical cable connections made?
12 October 2000 24
Call to Action
Visit a central office Visit a new cyber-hotel Examine new purpose-built systems in detail
talk with system architects examine internal design trade-offs
How could we shape CompactPCI(+) to meet the needs of 80% of a larger market?
12 October 2000 25
My Agenda
Ethernet connectivity on CompactPCI backplane NMS co-sponsored PICMG sub-committee 2.16
StarFabric NMS working with Lucent, StarGen and others
Everyone will benefit from one “architecture” for the evolution to CompactPCI(+) Minimize # of front card variants Grow the CompactPCI market
12 October 2000 26
Telecommunications
Continuous gains in underlying technology Memory, processors, fiber and radio bandwidth
Very small market penetration Half world population have never used a phone
Just beginning to build a new public network
12 October 2000 27
Telecommunications
Substantial, long term, worldwide growth!
Significant positive impact on humanity
Have Fun — Make Money !
