12th Annual Library Leadership Institute

Library Leadership in the Asia Pacific CenturyShanghai, 16-20 May 2014

Strategic Planning: Skills Development using a Scenario Planning Process

策略規劃：透過情境規劃過程發展技能

Howard AmosUniversity LibrarianUniversity of Otago

Scenario Planning

Aim: build understanding of planning strategies

Outcome: understand role scenario planning can play

Approach: sharing knowledge & development of a

scenario planning approach

Session outline 14:00 – 14:45 Presentation

14:45 – 15:10 Group Activity

15:10 – 15:20 Feedback

15:20 – 15:30 Summary

Disclaimer

Deconstruction

What do we mean by Planning What is Strategic Planning What is Scenario Planning

How does skills development come into the picture

Why should we care

Why should we care

“What can we do as academic librarians to better prepare ourselves for what is certainly an uncertain future? We just have to think more entrepreneurially and look for these opportunities.” – Steve Bell Vice President/President Elect Association of College and Research Libraries March 2012

“Libraries cannot remain relevant institutions by being meaningless middlemen who serve no purpose.“ - Eric Van de Velde blogger scitechsociety.blogspot.com/

“unless we give our funding bodies better and more compelling reasons to support libraries, they will be forced by economic reality to stop doing so.” – Rick Anderson Scholarly Kitchen blogger and Interim Dean of the J. Willard Marriott Library at the University of Utah.

“Academic libraries must develop the staff needed to meet new challenges through creative approaches to hiring new personnel and deploying/retraining existing staff.” -

A review of the trends and issues affecting academic libraries in higher educationACRL Research Planning and Review Committee

What is Planning

If you don't know where you are going,you'll end up someplace else.”

― Yogi Berra

“Failing to plan is planning to fail” ―

Alan Lakein

What is Planning

Part of what management is:organisingresourcing [staffing]leading [control]directing

planning

Koontz, Harold and O'Donnell, Cyril (1959)..

PlanningIn organizations, planning is a management process, concerned with defining goals for company's future direction and determining on the missions and resources to achieve those targets.

Knowledge is the essential ingredient

Knowledge

Things we know we know

Things we know we don’t know

Things we don’t know we don’t know

What is Strategic Planning

Identify and confirm intended/desired outcomes

Clearly define objectives

Means we can set priorities

Establish common goals

Demonstrate alignment

What is Strategic Planning

Assessment of the environment

Formulate a high level plan

Operational planning - objectives & action items

Evaluations, review & refinement

Strategic Planning

Environmental scantrend spottinginternal & external

Where is the library?

Demonstrate effectiveness

So I’ve got a Strategic PlanWe know where we are going

BUT:

What if the goal post move

How do we prepare for the unexpected

How do we anticipate change

Move from reactive to proactiveFlexible decision-making tool

Relevant to who and what we are

“Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!” - Lewis Carroll, Alice Through the Looking Glass

“The future you have, tomorrow, won't be the same future you had, yesterday.” - Chuck Palahniuk, Rant

What is Scenario Planning

Genesis from military strategic studies

Herman Kahn – “think the unthinkable”

Business tool in the 1960’s & 1970’s

Pierre Wack – long range planning at Royal Dutch Shell

What is Scenario Planning

Not about predicting the future

Provides a framework to: focus on different possibilities include uncertainties in planning

what we don’t know that we don’t know

Explore multiple plausible futures

Develop feasible strategic plans

How does it work

Use known trends to develop different possible future states

Create a series of different futures

Refine to 3 - 5 scenarios & expand

Knowledge exchange & responsiveness

Develop strategies & options

How To…: ‘A Step-by-Step Guide’

Scoping Trend Analysis

PESTLE Create Scenarios Generate Options Review Options Action Plan

http://www.jiscinfonet.ac.uk/infokits/scenario-planning

Scenario Planning in action

rossdawsonblog.com/weblog/archives/2012/03/scenario-planning-in-action-what-why-success-factors-and-process.html

Characteristics of scenarios

They come in sets- can be powerful to examine contrasts

Show possible futures

Contextual, plausible

A logical path

Schnaars, S., & Ziamou, P. (2001)

Generating Scenarios

How does it flow

Context

•imperatives•scans

Consequence

•trends•drivers

Construction

•assumptions•decisions

Scenarios

Actions

•plans•projects

Imperatives & Trends

Imperatives/Trends ImplicationsChanges in how teachers teach and students learn

New support services, re-purposed/new spaces

Move from print dominated resources to online, anytime from anywhere

Changes to back office functions, consolidate services, the untethered library

Economic accountability Do more with less, demonstrate effectiveness and value for investment

New tools and technologies New skills sets for staff, incorporate self-mediation (PDA, print on demand etc.)

Growth in inter-discipline research and international collaboration

New skills sets for staff, embedded in the research project

Generating Scenarios - an example

A Trend leads to an imperative:Economic pressure combines with government demands for more highly skilled graduates

Impact:The university will need growth of post-grad programmes

Library:We will………..

Otago case study

Context

•imperatives•scans

Consequence

•trends•drivers

Construction

•assumptions•decisions

Scenarios

Actions

•plans•projects

Otago case study

Otago Library Operational Managers introduction to scenario planning

workshop issues and options timeline

Random teams from across the Library

Scenarios refined and developed by SMT

How did it unfoldTeam compositions

Timing

Teams were presented scenarios

Scenario construction can be varied but still valid

Multi scenario planning not possible

Value in reinforcing “the future is now”

Yet to be embedded in quality assessment

Putting it into play – high level trends

Budget cutsChanging social imperativesDevelopment of digital humanities servicesDevelopment of distance courses Disaster preparedness Economic pressure from Government Emphasis placed on post-graduates Increasing professional services Technology developmentsDominance of the large publishers

Putting it into play – high level trends

Budget cutsChanging social imperativesDevelopment of digital humanities servicesDevelopment of distance courses Disaster preparednessEconomic pressure from GovernmentEmphasis placed on post-graduatesIncreasing professional servicesTechnology developmentsDominance of the large publishers

(E)(L)(P)(S)

(T)(En)

(En)(P)(E)

(P)(En)(En)

(T)(En)

Common themes and implications

The untethered library

Just in time

Teaching online & global

24/7

Embedded librarians

Economies from scale

To Recap: Scenarios

Centre on construction of useable stories each one a coherent whole provoke thinking not substitute

Need to be plausible based on assumptions relevant to issues and challenges specific decision-focused views produce new perspectives

Group activity: introduction

•imperatives•scans

•trends•drivers

•assumptions•decisions

•plans•projects

scenario actionsconstructionconsequencecontext

Group activity

Trends this development responds to are:

Plan

Group activity

Imperatives/Trends ImplicationsChanges in how teachers teach and students learn

New support services, re-purposed/new spaces

Move from print dominated resources to online, anytime from anywhere

Changes to back office functions, consolidate services, the untethered library

Economic accountability Do more with less, demonstrate effectiveness and value for investment

New tools and technologies New skills sets for staff, incorporate self-mediation (PDA, print on demand etc.)

Growth in inter-discipline research and international collaboration

New skills sets for staff, embedded in the research project

Group activity

Part Two

Consider options for three areas to be developed

Group activity

Factors could be Impact on the sector and your university Direct impact on your library What trends might lead to a positive What could be a negative version

Summing Up

Create a series of different futuresUse known drivers (trends) Develop different future statesRefine to 3 - 5 scenarios Knowledge exchange & responsivenessEmbed in strategic plan action points

The JISC…: ‘Step-by-Step Guide’

Scoping Trend Analysis

PESTLE Create Scenarios Generate Options Review Options Action Plan

http://www.jiscinfonet.ac.uk/infokits/scenario-planning

A lot of work – what are the benefits

Enhance the planning and forecasting process Ties diverse information and future

environments Avoids single view and blind spots Forces explicit assumptions Highlights areas for further examination Draws staff and management into the process Develops the Library’s corporate culture

Skills Development

Builds familiarity in handling uncertainty

Embrace diversity - find coherence

Team dynamics

Builds wider planning capabilities

ResourcesAssociation of Research Libraries and Stratus, Inc., The ARL 2030 Scenarios: A User’s Guide for Research Libraries (Washington, DC: ARL, 2010), http://www.arl.org/bm~doc/arl-2030-scenariosusers-guide.pdf.

Futures, The journal of policy, planning and futures studies. Elsevier (Science Direct) ISSN: 0016-3287& 1873-6378

Libraries of the Future http://www.futurelibraries.info/content/

JISC Infonet scenario planning info kithttp://www.jiscinfonet.ac.uk/infokits/scenario-planning/

Technological forecasting and social change. Elsevier (Science Direct) ISSN 0040-1625 & 1873-5509

Total Quality Management and Business Excellence. Routledge (Routledge Open Select)

ISSN 0954-4127

AcknowledgementsLibraries of the Future http://www.futurelibraries.info/content/

Anderson Rick (2011), “The Crisis in Research Librarianship,” Journal of Academic Librarianship 37, no. 4

http://www.balancedscorecard.org/BSCResources/StrategicPlanningBasics/tabid/459/Default.aspx

Dalziel, Murray, and Schoonover, Stephen C. (1988). Changing Ways: A Practical Tool for Implementing Change Within Organizations. New York. NY: Amacom/American Management Association.

http://dissertationhelponline.blogspot.co.nz/2012/01/research-strategy.html

http://www.jiscinfonet.ac.uk/infokits/scenario-planning/

Kahn, Herman and Wiener, Anthony J (1967). The Year 2000 A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years. , New York. NY: The Macmillan Company.

Koontz, Harold and O'Donnell, Cyril (1959). Principles of management; an analysis of managerial functions (2nd ed.). New York,NY:McGraw-Hill.

Meister, Jeanne. 5 New Skills needed for leadership in 2020. http://www.humanresourcesiq.com/business-strategies/articles/5-new-skills-needed-for-leadership-in-2020/

Schoemaker, Paul J. H. “Scenario Planning: A tool for Strategic Thinking.” Sloan Management Review, Winter 1995; 36 no. 2

Schnaars, S., & Ziamou, P. (2001). The essentials of scenario writing. Business Horizons, 44(4), 25-31.

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