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Weekly Market Update
PUBLIC
Weekly Commentary
VND weakening against USD
After long holiday, the USD/VND opened the week at the level of
20850 then moved up gradually to 20900 in the firstfew days once
banks covered some short positions that they had run before Tet
coupled with some gold purchasefrom people after Tet. Liquidity was
quite good. Demand from corporate remained modest. The USD/VND
started tobe more volatile on Thursday trading in range of
20890-20900 in the morning. Liquidity became worse in the
afternoon
when demand increased while supply decreased pushing the USD/VND
rate to 20950. The market started to benervous after hearing about
the rumor of some official arrest at some State-owned Enterprises
(SOEs), liquidity wasvery thin and limited. The USD/VND rate
exceeded 21000 level at one time. Bid/offer spread widened to
50-100 pips.
However, the market was calm down and almost back to normal the
next day after the SSC (State SecuritiesCommission of Vietnam) and
the MoP (the Ministry of Police) stamped down all the rumors. The
SBV also came out toconfirm it would take appropriate measures to
ensure the market stability. Then the USD/VND was cooled down
andtraded in range of 20880-900 which was around 0.24% higher
compared to the earlier level of the week.
According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, Vietnam has
probably posted USD 900 million of trade surplus in thefirst two
months of 2013 which would add more bullets to Vietnam's FX
reserve, currently estimated at USD 30 billion.This would give the
SBV more fire power to monitor and stabilize the FX market if
needed.
Going forward, we think the USD/VND will be stable in the range
of 20875-20905 given the current FX reserve and
market liquidity. The USD/VND rate might be moving in a
flexibly-stable way to support export.*The exchange rate is the mid
level between bid and offer
VND gim gi so vi USD
Sau k nghdi, t gi USD/VND m ca u tun mc 20850 sau tng nh dn ln
20900 trong vi ngy utun khi mt s ngn hng mua vo gim bt trng thi
ngoi hi m m h c trc Tt nhm mc ch kimim k hn trc , ng thi ngi dn cng
mua vng nhiu hn sau Tt. Thanh khon th trng ngai hi khtt. Nhu cu mua
bn ca cc doanh nghip vn cn khim tt. T gi USD/VND bt u bin ng nhiu
hn vongy th nm v giao dch trong khong 20890-20900 vo bui sng. Tuy
nhin, thanh khon tr nn t hn trongbui chiu khi nhu cu mua tng ln
trong khi ngun cung gim i y t gi tng ln mc 20950. Th trng btu thn
trng sau khi c mt s tin n v vic bt gi mt s cn b mt vi doanh nghip.
Thanh khon thtrng cc k km, t gi tng vt mc 21000 v gi cho mua cho bn
c ni rng ra mc 50-100 im.
Tuy nhin, th trng bnh tnh tr li v gn nh bnh thng ngy hm sau sau
khi UBCK v B Cng An ng ra dp tt mi tin n. NHNH ng thi thng bo s
theo di v s dng nhng bin php thch hp n nht gi v th trng. T gi
USD/VND gim xung v giao dch mc 20880-20900, tng 0.24% so vi gi u
tun.
Theo B cng thng, c tnh Vit Nam xut siu khong USD 900 triu trong
hai thng u nm 2013, gp phntng trng ngun d tr ngoi hi hin c tnh
khong USD 30 t. y s l mt ngun lc to ln NHNN c thcan thip gin nh t
gi v th trng khi cn thit.
Trong thi gian ti, chng ti cho rng t gi c th giao dch n nh quanh
20875-80905. T gi c th giao dch mtcch linh hot n nh gip tng trng
xut khu.
*Tgi ngoi hi tham kho l trung bnh gia tgi mua v bn
Interest rates swing widely during TetEven though late this
year, it finally happened. Market liquidity got tightened one week
before Tet (4-8Feb13) withmajor causes being customers withdrawing
money for spending during the long holiday. On 18Feb13
averageinterbank offered rates peaked at 5.68pct for overnight
tenor (highest in last 6 months), one week 6.08pct and onemonth
6.25pct. However, once the holiday was over, liquidity quickly came
back to the system and interest ratescontinued its same easing
momentum that it had since early January. As at 26Feb13, average
offered rate stayed lowat 2.03pct for overnight (164bps lower than
4Feb13), 2.67pct for one week (146bps lower) and 5.00pct for one
month(11bps lower).
SBV stood by the market during the tightening period before the
holiday. Total amount lent to banks by reverse reposover the Open
Market topped VND 36.52 Trio within one week before Tet hitting the
record for of the past one year.Currently the outstanding
borrowings from SBV as at 26Feb13 was only VND 46 Bio as banks have
paid back most ofthe loans.
7/29/2019 130226 Market Update
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Weekly Market Update
PUBLIC
T-bill issuance has resumed after Tet. Total successful issuance
reached VND 21,969 Bio for tenor 91Days (yieldranging 6.33-6.35pct)
and VND 9,754 Bio for tenor 182Days (yield static at 7.20pct).
There was also one successfulMOFs T-note issuance for value date
26Feb13, with amount of VND 2 Trio and yield of 7.85pct for
364Days.
Li sut bin ng mnh trong dp Tt
Mc d tr trong nm nay, nhng th trng li sut bin ng mnh trc Tt.
Thanh khon th trng trong 1tun cui trc Tt (4-8/2/2013) vi nguyn nhn
chnh l cc khch hng rt tin chun b cho nhng khon chi tiucho k nghdi.
Vo ngy 18/2/2013, li sut cho vay bnh qun th trng lin ngn hng t nh
5,68% cho khn qua m (cao nht trong vng 6 thng gn y), 1 tun mc
6,08%, v 1 thng mc 6,25%. Tuy nhin, saukhi qua l, thanh khon nhanh
chng quay tr li h thng v li sut tip tc gim c sn t hi u nm ngi. Vo
ngy 26/2/2013, li sut cho vay bnh qun xung mc thp 2,03% cho k hn
qua m (gim 164 imso vi ngy 4/2/2013), 2,67% cho 1 tun (gim 146 im),
v 5% cho 1 thng (gim 11 im).
NHNN vn ng bn cnh th trng trong sut giai on thanh khon tht cht
ny. Tng lng tin m NHNN chocc NHTM vay qua knh TTM t mc 36,52 ngn
tng trong vng 1 tun trc khi nghTt t mc k lctrong vng 1 nm qua. Hin
nay s lng d n qua knh ny ch mc 46 tng, do cc NHTM tr li s tinvay dp
Tt.
NHNN gi thu tr li pht hnh Tn phiu NHNN sau Tt. Tng lng pht hnh t
21.969 tng cho khn 91 ngy (vi li tc t 6,33-6,35%), v 93754 tng cho
k hn 182 ngy (vi li tc khng i 7,20%). Tnphiu Kho bc pht hnh qua
NHNN cng c 1 phin thnh cng pht hnh vo ngy 26/2/2013, vi lng phthnh
l 2 ngn tng v li tc l 7,85% cho k hn 364 ngy.
Indicative deposit rates
VND USD USD
Corporate retail Corporate
Flexible 0.10 0.00
Time Deposits
1 Month 4.25 0.09 0.04
3 Months 5.35 0.16
6 Months 5.73 0.40
9 Months 6.17 0,90
1 Year 6.76 1.12
Source: HSBC as at 05 February 2013
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