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1Q13 Earnings Release Presentation April 26, 2013

1Q13 Earnings Release Presentation - American Electric Power€¦ · This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange

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Page 1: 1Q13 Earnings Release Presentation - American Electric Power€¦ · This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange

1Q13 Earnings Release Presentation

April 26, 2013

Page 2: 1Q13 Earnings Release Presentation - American Electric Power€¦ · This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange

2

“Safe Harbor” Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995

Investor Relations Contacts

Bette Jo RozsaManaging DirectorInvestor Relations

[email protected]

Julie SherwoodDirector

Investor Relations614-716-2663

[email protected]

Sara MaciochAnalyst

Investor Relations614-716-2835

[email protected]

This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Although AEP and each of itsRegistrant Subsidiaries believe that their expectations are based on reasonable assumptions, any such statements may be influenced by factors that could cause actualoutcomes and results to be materially different from those projected. Among the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are: the economic climate and growth in, or contraction within, our service territory and changes in market demand and demographic patterns in ourservice territory, inflationary or deflationary interest rate trends, volatility in the financial markets, particularly developments affecting the availability of capital onreasonable terms and developments impairing our ability to finance new capital projects and refinance existing debt at attractive rates, the availability and cost of funds tofinance working capital and capital needs, particularly during periods when the time lag between incurring costs and recovery is long and the costs are material, electricload, customer growth and the impact of retail competition, particularly in Ohio, weather conditions, including storms and drought conditions, and our ability to recoversignificant storm restoration costs through applicable rate mechanisms, available sources and costs of, and transportation for, fuels and the creditworthiness andperformance of fuel suppliers and transporters, availability of necessary generating capacity and the performance of our generating plants, our ability to recoverincreases in fuel and other energy costs through regulated or competitive electric rates, our ability to build or acquire generating capacity, and transmission line facilities(including our ability to obtain any necessary regulatory approvals and permits) when needed at acceptable prices and terms and to recover those costs (including thecosts of projects that are cancelled) through applicable rate cases or competitive rates, new legislation, litigation and government regulation including oversight of nucleargeneration, energy commodity trading and new or heightened requirements for reduced emissions of sulfur, nitrogen, mercury, carbon, soot or particulate matter andother substances or additional regulation of fly ash and similar combustion products that could impact the continued operation and cost recovery of our plants and relatedassets, evolving public perception of the risks associated with fuels used before, during and after the generation of electricity, including nuclear fuel, a reduction in thefederal statutory tax rate could result in an accelerated return of deferred federal income taxes to customers, timing and resolution of pending and future rate cases,negotiations and other regulatory decisions including rate or other recovery of new investments in generation, distribution and transmission service and environmentalcompliance, resolution of litigation, our ability to constrain operation and maintenance costs, our ability to develop and execute a strategy based on a view regardingprices of electricity, coal, natural gas and other energy-related commodities, prices and demand for power that we generate and sell at wholesale, changes in technology,particularly with respect to new, developing or alternative sources of generation, our ability to recover through rates or market prices any remaining unrecoveredinvestment in generating units that may be retired before the end of their previously projected useful lives, volatility and changes in markets for electricity, natural gas, andother energy-related commodities, changes in utility regulation, including the implementation of ESPs and the transition to market and expected legal separation forgeneration in Ohio and the allocation of costs within regional transmission organizations, including PJM and SPP, our ability to successfully manage negotiations withstakeholders and obtain regulatory approval to terminate the Interconnection Agreement, changes in the creditworthiness of the counterparties with whom we havecontractual arrangements, including participants in the energy trading market, actions of rating agencies, including changes in the ratings of our debt, the impact ofvolatility in the capital markets on the value of the investments held by our pension, other postretirement benefit plans, captive insurance entity and nucleardecommissioning trust and the impact on future funding requirements, accounting pronouncements periodically issued by accounting standard-setting bodies and otherrisks and unforeseen events, including wars, the effects of terrorism (including increased security costs), embargoes, cyber security threats and other catastrophic events.

Page 3: 1Q13 Earnings Release Presentation - American Electric Power€¦ · This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange

3

First Quarter 2013 Highlights

Refer to appendix for reconciliation between GAAP and Operating EPS

1st Quarter

$0.00

$0.20

$0.40

$0.60

$0.80

$1.00

1Q13 1Q12

$0.75$0.80$0.80 $0.80

GAAP EPS

OPERATINGEPS

1Q13 Non-operating items

Storm Deferral Reversal (VA) ($0.04)

Restructuring Program ($0.01)

Company Update

Dividend Increase• Board declared $0.49/share• Increase of $0.02/share, or 4.3%

Transmission• Earnings on track• Pioneer IURC Approval • Transource/Missouri

Regulatory Update• Ohio• Corporate Separation• Indiana Legislation

EPA Update• Water Rules

Repositioning Study• Culture

Page 4: 1Q13 Earnings Release Presentation - American Electric Power€¦ · This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange

Twelve Months Ended 03/31/13 Pro-forma* Earned ROEs

* pro-forma adjusts GAAP results by eliminating any material nonrecurring items and is not weather normalized

Delivered Strong Utility Operations Results

4Utility Operations ROE 10.5% as of March 31, 2013

Page 5: 1Q13 Earnings Release Presentation - American Electric Power€¦ · This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange

5

1Q13 Performance DriversFirst Quarter Reconciliation

1Q13 Performance

Prior year reversal of regulatory obligation

Off-System sales unfavorable $30M primarily due to decreased CRES reimbursements

Ohio Customer Switching and Capacity unfavorable $24M from prior year. As of March 2013, 53% of total Ohio load switched

AFUDC unfavorable $20M primarily due to Turk plant in service December 2012

O&M expense, net of offsets, increased$14M primarily due to scheduled plant maintenance outages and storms

Rate Changes, net of offsets, of $51M from multiple jurisdictions

Weather was favorable by $78M vs. prior year, favorable $10M vs. normal

Rate changes and weather offset Ohio and other items

Operating Earnings

EPS ($ in millions)1Q12 0.80$ $389Ohio Reserve Reversal (0.05)$ Off-System Sales (0.04)$ Customer Switching and Capacity (0.03)$ AFUDC (0.03)$ O&M, net of offsets (0.02)$ Rate Changes 0.07$ Weather 0.10$ 1Q13 0.80$ $387EPS Based on 486MM shares in 1Q13, 484MM in 1Q12

Page 6: 1Q13 Earnings Release Presentation - American Electric Power€¦ · This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange

6Higher Residential and Commercial offset by Industrial challenges

-2.8%-1.9%

-0.5% -1.1%

1.3%

-0.4%

-5%

0%

5%

1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2013E

Normalized Load Trends

-0.4%

1.6%0.1%

-0.4%

0.5%

-0.1%

-5%

0%

5%

1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2013E

2.2% 1.8%

-3.1%-4.2%

-6.0%

1.8%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2013E

-0.4%

0.6%

-1.2%-2.0% -1.5%

0.5%

-5%

0%

5%

1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2013E

AEP Residential Normalized GWh Sales%Change vs. Prior Year

AEP Commercial Normalized GWh Sales%Change vs. Prior Year

AEP Industrial Normalized GWh Sales%Change vs. Prior Year

AEP Total Normalized GWh Sales%Change vs. Prior Year

Note: Charts reflect connected load and exclude firm wholesale load & Buckeye Power backup load.

Page 7: 1Q13 Earnings Release Presentation - American Electric Power€¦ · This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange

7

Industrial Sales Volumes

Industry 1Q13 vs. 1Q12Primary Metals -16.9%Chemical Mfg. -4.4%Petroleum & Coal Products -3.0%Mining (except Oil & Gas) -2.9% Paper Mfg. 0.2%

Industrial sales trend negative

Page 8: 1Q13 Earnings Release Presentation - American Electric Power€¦ · This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange

8

Gas to Coal Switching

Gas to coal switching occurred in 1Q13

Overall generation from natural gas has decreased over 30 percent year-to-date

Overall generation from coal has increased 9 percent year-to-date

43 days system average coal inventory at March 31, 2013

Coal approximately 97% hedged for 2013 and 74% hedged for 2014

WestEast

1st Quarter 2012 vs. 2013 Capacity Factor

Page 9: 1Q13 Earnings Release Presentation - American Electric Power€¦ · This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange

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AEP East Fleet Dispatch Stack

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

- 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000 24,000 26,000

$ pe

r MW

h, D

ispa

tch

Cos

t

Capacity (MW)

1Q 2012 vs. 1Q 20132013 Q1 Dispatch Stack

2012 Q1 Dispatch Stack

2013 Q1 AEP Gen = $32.65 /MWh ATC

2012 Q1 AEP Gen = $28.65 /MWh ATC

B A

Q1 Comparison

(A - B) = (19,550 - 15,750)

= 3,800 MW

Eastern Fleet is competitive even at low prices

Page 10: 1Q13 Earnings Release Presentation - American Electric Power€¦ · This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange

10

Financing Activities Completed: $1 billion 27-month term loan closed

Amendment of core revolving lines of credit including $250MM increase in capacity and 1-year extensions

TNC $200MM senior unsecured notes issued

I&M $250MM senior unsecured notes issued

Upcoming Financing Activities: Issuance of securitization bonds

Ohio Power ~$275MM APCo ~$380MM

Other opportunities as dictated by market conditions

2013 Financing Activities

Utilizing strong balance sheet to access low cost debt capital

Page 11: 1Q13 Earnings Release Presentation - American Electric Power€¦ · This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange

11

Capitalization & Liquidity

Liquidity Summary (03/31/2013)

Credit Statistics

Note: Credit statistics represent the trailing 12 months as of 03/31/2013

Strong balance sheet, solid credit metrics and adequate liquidity

Total Debt / Total Capitalization

74%

82%

88%92% 94%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2009 2010 2011 2012 1Q13

Qualified Pension Liability Funding

Actual TargetFFO Interest Coverage 4.6 >3.6xFFO To Total Debt 19.7% 15%- 20%

Liquidity Summary(unaudited) Actual($ in millions) Amount MaturityRevolving Credit Facility 1,750$ Jul-17Revolving Credit Facility 1,750 Jun-16Interim Credit Facility 1,000 May-15Total Credit Facilities 4,500

PlusCash & Cash Equivalents 179

LessCommercial Paper Outstanding (661) Amount drawn on bank loans (200) Letters of credit issued (115)

Net available Liquidity 3,703$

Page 12: 1Q13 Earnings Release Presentation - American Electric Power€¦ · This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange

12

Summary

On track to deliver results outlined at February 15 Analyst Day

O&M Discipline

Transmission Growth

Load

Power & Gas Prices

Regulatory Plans

Pension Funding

Page 13: 1Q13 Earnings Release Presentation - American Electric Power€¦ · This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange

13

Questions

Page 14: 1Q13 Earnings Release Presentation - American Electric Power€¦ · This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange

14

Reconciliation of GAAP to Operating Earnings

1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr2012 2013 Change 2012 2013 Change

Reported Earnings (GAAP) 389$ 363$ (26)$ 0.80$ 0.75$ (0.05)$

Special Items:Restructuring Program - 5 5 - 0.01 0.01 Reversal of Storm Deferral - Virginia - 19 19 - 0.04 0.04 AEP Operating Earnings 389 387 (2) 0.80 0.80 -

$ millions Earnings Per Share

Page 15: 1Q13 Earnings Release Presentation - American Electric Power€¦ · This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange

15

Quarterly Performance Comparison

2012 GAAP 2012 Operating 2013 GAAP 2013 Operating 2012 Volumes Earnings Adjustments Earnings 2013 Volumes Earnings Adjustments Earnings

(GWh) ($ millions) ($ millions) ($ millions) (GWh) ($ millions) ($ millions) ($ millions)

UTILITY OPERATIONS:Gross Margin:

1 East Regulated Integrated Utilities 17,018 763 - 763 18,030 856 - 856 2 Ohio Companies 12,863 618 - 618 12,084 618 - 618 3 West Regulated Integrated Utilities 9,657 288 - 288 9,540 309 - 309 4 Texas Wires 6,157 145 - 145 6,066 148 - 148 5 Off-System Sales 84 - 84 54 - 54 6 Transmission Revenue - 3rd Party 115 - 115 136 - 136 7 Other Operating Revenue 103 - 103 119 - 119

8 Utility Gross Margin 2,116 - 2,116 2,240 - 2,240

9 Operations & Maintenance (757) - (757) (879) 37 (842) 10 Depreciation & Amortization (412) - (412) (406) - (406) 11 Taxes Other than Income Taxes (211) - (211) (209) - (209) 12 Interest Exp & Preferred Dividend (217) - (217) (226) - (226) 13 Other Income & Deductions 43 - 43 16 - 16 14 Income Taxes (179) - (179) (188) (13) (201) 15 Utility Operations Earnings 383 - 383 348 24 372

16 Transmission Operations 9 - 9 13 - 13

NON-UTILITY OPERATIONS:17 AEP River Operations 9 - 9 (2) - (2) 18 Generation & Marketing (1) - (1) 7 - 7

PARENT & OTHER:19 Parent & Other Earnings (11) - (11) (3) - (3)

20 EARNINGS 389 - 389 363 24 387

Weighted average no. of shares outstanding: EPS EPS EPS EPS 2012: 484 million 0.80 0.80 0.75 0.80

2013: 486 million

American Electric PowerFinancial Results for 1st Quarter 2013 Actual vs 1st Quarter 2012 Actual

Page 16: 1Q13 Earnings Release Presentation - American Electric Power€¦ · This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange

16

Retail Rate Performance

Rate Changes, net of trackers (in millions)

1Q13 vs. 1Q12

East Regulated Integrated Utilities $10

Ohio Companies $19

West Regulated Integrated Utilities $22

Texas Wires $0

AEP System Total $51

Impact on EPS $0.07

May not foot due to rounding

Page 17: 1Q13 Earnings Release Presentation - American Electric Power€¦ · This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange

17

1Q13 Retail Performance

Retail Load*(weather normalized)

Weather Impact(in millions)

1Q13 vs. 1Q12 1Q13 vs. 1Q12

East Regulated Integrated Utilities 0.1% East Regulated

Integrated Utilities $53

Ohio Companies (4.1%) Ohio Companies $21

West Regulated Integrated Utilities (1.4%) West Regulated

Integrated Utilities $5

Texas Wires (0.6%) Texas Wires ($1)

Impact on EPS$0.00

Impact on EPS $0.10

*Excludes firm wholesale load & Buckeye Power backup load

Page 18: 1Q13 Earnings Release Presentation - American Electric Power€¦ · This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange

18

Off System Sales Gross Margin Detail

Physical off-system sales margins increased from last year by $15M

AEP/Dayton Hub pricing: 16% increase in liquidation prices

Lower Trading & Marketing results by $7M

First Quarter

* May not foot due to rounding

2012 2013GWh ($millions) GWh ($millions)

OSS Physical Sales 4,667 31$ 7,882 46$ Capacity Payments CRES/RPM - 47$ - 10$ Marketing/Trading - 22$ - 15$ Pre-Sharing Gross Margin 4,667 100$ 7,882 71$ Margin Shared (16)$ (17)$ Net OSS 84$ 54$