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Quantifying the Hurricane Risk to Offshore Wind Turbines
Stephen Rose, Paulina Jaramillo, Jay Apt, Mitch Small, Iris Grossmann
Carnegie Mellon University
May 21st, 2012
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We Model Distribution of Turbines Destroyed in 20 Years
• No replacement: Phase-Type distribution• Replacement: compound Poisson
distribution
Assumptions:- Single wind farm- Each turbine experiences same conditions
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Engineering Changes Can Reduce Risk
• Backup power for yaw system– Survival depends on active system– Wind vane must survive– Turbine must yaw quickly
• Stronger towers and blades– More steel in tower– More fiberglass in blades– 20 – 30% cost increase