2007 International Sweetener Colloquium Bill Hejl, President World Association of Beet and Cane Growers

2007 International Sweetener Colloquium2007 International Sweetener Colloquium

Bill Hejl, President World Association of

Beet and Cane Growers

WABCG

World Association of Beet and Cane GrowersWorld Association of Beet and Cane Growers

5.6 Million FarmersWho associate to promote beet

and cane production

Who is the WABCG?

WABCG

31 Countries:Beet:Austria ItalyBelgium JapanCanada NetherlandsDenmark SpainFinland SwedenFrance TurkeyGermany United Kingdom

United States

Cane:Australia South AfricaBrazil Sudan**Fiji SwazilandIndia Tanzania Jamaica UgandaKenya ZambiaMalawi Mauritius Mexico Pakistan

World Association of Beet and Cane GrowersWorld Association of Beet and Cane Growers

WABCG


Sugar is a Byproduct

WABCG


50 MillionBeet and Cane

GrowersProduce Energy

WABCG


Beet and Cane Growers:

• Production increases

• Increasing demand: Food & Fuel

• Higher fuel prices drive demand for more sugar

WABCG


Balancing Food and EnergyResult:

• Higher prices

• Government action

WABCG


Balancing Food and EnergyWill conversion to Bio-Fuels be:• Efficient?• Stable?• Sustainable?It must be:• High prices have driven investment• Better than trade deals

WABCG

2007 International Sweetener Colloquium

Balancing Food and Energy

What will the conversion of more sugar to energy

do to sugar-as-food markets?

WABCG

KWS• Increase sugar per hectare

from 10 Metric Ton to 15- Breeding- Winter sown beets

2006 WABCG Meetings2006 WABCG Meetings

WABCG

EU Reform• Close 33-50 factories in 2007 alone

• 21 million ton down to 12 by 2013


WABCG

8.0358.035

8.027 – 8.035 Minutes

WABCG

“Bio-Fuel Cane”• Japan• 300% more bagasse• Now Bio-Fuel corn


WABCG

Some Facts About IndiaGeographical area (million hectares) 328.73

Land utilization (million hectares) 306.06

Population (millions) 1055

Rural population (% of total) 72.2%

Work force (millions) 402.5

Per capita land (hectares) 0.33

World Sugar Balance (Million tons, raw value)

2005/06 Surplus: 2.7 Million Tons

2006/07 Surplus: 6.1 Million Tons

?

World Prices

???

Sugar Consumption Growth Sugar Consumption Growth in Major Consumersin Major Consumers

0

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25

Ind

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EU

-25

Bra

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US

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ssia

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xico

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Increase in sugar consumption between 1984 and 2005

Sugar consumption in 1984

Future Sugar Consumption(million tons)

13 Demand Growth 2005 – 2009

28 Demand Growth 2005 – 2013

Brazil’s Sugar and Ethanol

Sugar Production Up 9 Million Tons

Sugar Exports Up 10 Million Tons

Ethanol Production Up 11 Billion Liters

Ethanol Exports Up 3 Billion Liters

World Sugar and Fuel EthanolThe Global Fuel Ethanol Market

900 Million Gallons or 1.5 Days of Global Gasoline

Consumption

http://www.nrel.gov/data/pix/Jpegs/02268.jpg

• What happens if (or when) crude oil prices fall?

• What happens if (or when) crude oil prices rise further?

World Sugar and Fuel Ethanol

Will Ethanol Destabilize World Sugar Markets?

http://www.nrel.gov/data/pix/Jpegs/02268.jpg

U.S. Ethanol ImportsU.S. Ethanol Imports• Perfect storm of high oil prices & MTBE transition

is boosting U.S. imports of ethanol in 2006.

Year Total U.S. Ethanol Imports2002 46 million gallons2003 61 million gallons2004 161 million gallons2005 115 million gallons

2006 523 million gallons YTD

• Perfect storm of high oil prices & MTBE transition is boosting U.S. imports of ethanol in 2006.

Year Total U.S. Ethanol Imports2002 46 million gallons2003 61 million gallons2004 161 million gallons2005 115 million gallons

2006 523 million gallons YTD

That’s 3,322,000 metric tons of sugarThat’s 3,322,000 metric tons of sugar

U.S. Ethanol Imports 2006*U.S. Ethanol Imports 2006*• Year to date = 523 million gallons of ethanol (nearly 2 billion liters).

• Brazil accounts for 65% of imports or 343 million gallons (1.3 billion liters) YTD.

• CBI nations = 106 million gallons (401 million liters) YTD, mostly from Jamaica.

• DR-CAFTA nations (El Salvador) = 14 million gallons (55 million liters).

• Year to date = 523 million gallons of ethanol (nearly 2 billion liters).

• Brazil accounts for 65% of imports or 343 million gallons (1.3 billion liters) YTD.

• CBI nations = 106 million gallons (401 million liters) YTD, mostly from Jamaica.

• DR-CAFTA nations (El Salvador) = 14 million gallons (55 million liters).

*As of Nov. 1, 2006, from the U.S. International Trade Commission*As of Nov. 1, 2006, from the U.S. International Trade Commission

We’ve bought 42% Of Brazil’s

exports

0

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1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125

Bil

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History

Mean

USGS Estimates of Ultimate Recovery Ultimate Recovery Probability BBls-------------------- ---------Low (95 %) 2,248Mean (expected value) 3,003High (5 %) 3,896

Note: U.S. volumes were added to the USGS foreign volumes to obtain world totals.

7.8% Growth1963-1973

2% Growth& Decline

High Prices CanAffect Demand4.1% Decline

1979-1983

2016

Annual Production with 2 Percent Annual Growth & Decline

Remember 1,188BBls?

Tar sands and coal gasOnly add 3BBls/year

4.5% in 2005

13

14

55 60

More Sugar to Ethanol

Less Sugar for Food Use

Sucrose EthanolSucrose Ethanol

Corn Ethanol

Corn Ethanol

Cellulosic Ethanol

Cellulosic Ethanol

SugarSugar

EnergyEnergy FoodFood

WABCG


Beet and Cane Growers:

• Production increases

• Increasing demand: Food & Fuel

• Higher fuel prices drive demand for more sugar

WABCG


July 1-14, 2007 Brisbane, Australia

Documents

2007 International Sweetener Colloquium Bill Hejl, President World Association of Beet and Cane Growers